Outside of Jacksonville, the AFC South has not been home to much great football this season, and I don't see that changing this week. However, even after they lost yet another close game a week ago, I'm going back to the well with CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans against a Titans team that has been absolutely listless for the entirety of the campaign.
From a situational perspective, I like the spot with Houston in this one. The season is essentially on the line for the Texans, and DeMeco Ryans will call plays for the defense against a Tennessee offense that is 26th in EPA per play and 21st in success rate (Sumer Sports). Cam Ward is in the midst of a miserable sophomore season, and if the Titans are unable to run the ball on early downs, the elite Texans defensive front should be able to pin their ears back and get after the young quarterback.
On the other side of the ball, Stroud has been playing the best football of his career since his rookie season, and this will likely be the easiest matchup he's faced all year — especially with Nico Collins fully integrated into the offense again. Ultimately, the Texans have dropped games against the Bills, Colts, Bengals and Cowboys. This is nowhere near the same level of challenge, so I'll lay it with Houston on the road.
Texans vs Titans prediction: Texans -7.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to Texans -8.
