NYG vs WAS Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 10/11/26

Washington pulled off one of the biggest surprises in Week 3 by upsetting defending champion Seattle, 33-31, as 8.5-point home underdogs. It marked the first win of the season for the Commanders, but they were held to a season-low 13 points in last Sunday’s defeat to the Colts in London.

The good news for Washington is QB Jayden Daniels makes his return after injuring his left elbow in the Week 1 loss at Dallas. The Commanders are 0-2 inside the NFC East as they try to break through against the 3-1 Giants.

New York defeated Dallas in the opener, while knocking off Tennessee and Arizona in the last two weeks. The G-Men lost their lone road game against the Rams in Week 2 while also losing QB Jaxson Dart to a season-ending knee injury.

QB Jameis Winston threw for a season-high 250 yards against the Cardinals, but was also intercepted twice. Both squads rank in the bottom third of the league in EPA/Rush, with the Giants sitting 22nd and the Commanders at 23rd. Daniels threw for 260 combined yards in the first two games against the Eagles and Cowboys, although his injury came late in the first half at Dallas.

Washington is 4-0 in the last four matchups with New York, with Daniels posting a 3-0 mark. The Giants faced the 31st and 26th-ranked teams in EPA/Pass in the last two weeks, as Daniels ranks higher in that category than Tennessee’s Cam Ward and Arizona’s Jacoby Brissett. The Commanders should receive a nice boost with Daniels back against this overachieving Giants’ squad.

Giants vs Commanders prediction: Commanders -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number to -120.

The last two meetings between these NFC East rivals at Washington finished under the total, including a 21-6 victory by the Commanders last September on a 45.5 total. Since the start of 2025, Washington has combined for more than 45 points in six of nine games started by QB Jayden Daniels, who is expected to return against New York.

The Giants easily went over the total in last Sunday’s 36-24 win over Arizona, which was capped off by an interception return for a score on the final play of the game. In Week 2 and Week 3, the G-Men scored a total of 18 points, which also coincided with QB Jaxson Dart’s injury against the Rams. 

Washington’s defense has given up at least 30 points in each of the three losses, but yielded only 257 yards to Indianapolis in last Sunday’s 17-point defeat in London. Interestingly, the most passing yards the Commanders have allowed came at home against Seattle’s Sam Darnold (379) in their only win of the season. The Giants gave up less than 181 passing yards in three of four games, with the lone outlier being Matthew Stafford posting 327 yards in New York’s Week 2 defeat at Los Angeles.

Daniels will be a nice boost for this Washington offense, even though WR Terry McLaurin remains a question mark for Sunday. The recent trends for this series in Washington have stayed under, but these teams may throw it around and score points on Sunday.

Giants vs Commanders prediction: Over 42 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 43.5.