Soccer Picks

League leaders Arsenal face a tricky trip to Aston Villa in the English Premier League’s early kick-off on Saturday. The Gunners are unbeaten across all competitions since August and they have 13 wins in their last 15 games. The visitors are the clear favorites to come away with maximum points but Villa shouldn’t be underestimated as they have put together a 6-game winning run of their own and at home they’ve picked up 8 wins in a row. With both attacks in fine form, the best angle could be focusing on the goals markets. Both teams to score is one option, but the slightly bigger price on over 2.5 goals looks the best pick.

Villa’s 8-game winning streak at Villa Park suggests they can get on the scoresheet against the EPL’s best defence this weekend. Unai Emery’s side have only failed to score in 1 of their last 15 games across all competitions, and they hit 4 in midweek in a stunning comeback win at Brighton, recovering from 2-0 down to triumph 4-3. Arsenal have scored in 18 consecutive games and have only failed to score in 1 of their games this season across all competitions. The Gunners have also conceded in 4 of their last 5 games and 5 of the 7 Premier League goals they have conceded have come away from home, so both sides should be able to contribute to the total. Over 2.5 goals has been a winning bet in 4 of Villa’s last 5 games and in 4 of Arsenal’s last 6. Expect that trend to continue here.

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Bournemouth’s 1-0 defeat at home to Everton on Tuesday was their 4th defeat in their last 5 games and they could be in line for more misery when Chelsea visit the Vitality Stadium on Saturday. Chelsea were Arsenal’s closest challengers in the title fight until just a few days ago but a draw with the Gunners and then a defeat at Leeds in their own midweek assignment means they go into this round of fixtures in 4th spot, 9 points behind the league leaders. This trip to an out-of-sorts Cherries looks a good chance for Chelsea to end their own mini-blip, and a straightforward road win looks the best option.

Bournemouth did the league double over Chelsea in the 2018-19 season but they haven’t managed to beat the Londoners since. Chelsea have won 4 of the last 6 meetings between these 2 sides and they should be able to claim maximum points on Saturday. The Cherries have struggled against the top teams in the league, losing to Chelsea’s top-6 rivals Aston Villa, Man City and Sunderland since the start of November, and their record against those kinds of teams is why they have fallen away in their own fight for European qualification.

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A late Cristian Romero stunner saved Tottenham from a 4th successive defeat in midweek, but their winless run may extend when Thomas Frank welcomes former club Brentford to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Saturday. After a promising start to life under the Danish manager, Spurs’ early-season form has faded, leaving them heading into the festive period with 1 win, 2 draws and 5 defeats in their last 8 games. They have conceded 15 in their last 5 games, and there could be more goals to come here.

Brentford, who sit level on points with their hosts, have won 5 and lost 3 of their last 8, and they have scored 17 goals in this run. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 5 of these 8 games, and another high-scoring affair is expected against a Tottenham team that has seen 3 or more goals scored in each of their last 6 games.

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A late own goal saved Liverpool from yet another defeat at home to Sunderland in midweek, but they may find the pressure increase on them against a Leeds team in high spirits following their stunning 3-1 win over Chelsea last time out. That victory ended the Whites’ 4-game losing streak, but they have only lost 2 of their 7 home games this season and will like their chances against a visiting side in disarray.

Arne Slot’s Reds began the season with a rather fortuitous 7-game winning streak, but their luck eventually ran out and they head to Elland Road having lost 9 of their last 14, with 6 defeats in 9 Premier League outings in this period. They have lost 5 of their last 7 road games, and the doubt over the Dutchman’s future at Anfield is increasing.

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Inter Miami have already won the Supporters’ Shield and the Leagues Cup since Lionel Messi’s arrival transformed their fortunes, and they are bidding to add a first-ever MLS Cup when they face the Vancouver Whitecaps on Saturday. The Herons have been in devastating form lately, putting at least 4 past Nashville SC, FC Cincinnati and New York City FC on their way to winning the Eastern Conference, but they should not underestimate the Whitecaps.

Vancouver beat San Diego 3-1 in the Western Conference Final and beat Inter Miami twice in the CONCACAF Champions Cup earlier this year. Thomas Muller has had a galvanizing effect on the Canadians and he will be crucial to their chances in this final. Inter Miami are rightful favourites but there is not much juice in their price and the better play may be for there to be plenty of goals.

8 of the Herons’ last 9 games have gone over 3.5 goals and the Caps are no strangers to a high-scoring game, scoring 9 times in 4 playoff matches. With the attacking talents that both teams have at their disposal and some of the defensive issues that Miami have suffered all season, over 3.5 goals looks like the standout play for what should be an entertaining MLS Cup final.

Inter Miami vs Vancouver Whitecaps prediction: Over 3.5 (+105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -115.

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Brighton will not find it easy to beat a West Ham team that has strung a few away results together now under Nuno Espirito Santo when they clash at Amex Stadium on Sunday. The Seagulls are not quite as short as Manchester United were to beat the Hammers at home on Thursday, but they are still too skinny in the betting and instead it’s worth backing goals to be scored.

Albion’s home record was excellent before their midweek setback against Aston Villa. The Villans roared back from 2-0 down to win 4-3 and puncture some of the confidence Fabian Hurzeler’s side had gained from 3 previous home wins in a row. Brighton benefitted from some poor goalkeeping from Marco Bizot to establish that early advantage, but were guilty of slacking off on the press, getting caught out by long balls and a lack of desire when crosses went into their penalty area.

West Ham will try to exploit these areas on Sunday when they should have Lucas Paqueta back in the lineup after his 1-match suspension. The Brazilian may or may not be restored straight back into the starting line-up, but Tomas Soucek provides a different threat when deployed in his position and he is a proven goalscorer at this level. Expect a high-scoring contest when these sides clash at the Amex.

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Fulham threatened Man City in their 5-4 defeat on Tuesday night, pushing the Citizens after falling 5-1 down. That was the Cottagers’ 7th defeat of the campaign, and their 4th loss in 4 meetings with the current top 4. Both Arsenal and Manchester City have won at Craven Cottage, while Fulham’s 4 home wins have come against 2 of the three promoted clubs, Brentford and bottom team Wolves.

Crystal Palace had a scare at Burnley in midweek, but they departed with a 1-0 win. The Eagles are only 3 points shy of the top 4, while they boast the 4th-best record in terms of underlying numbers. Fixture congestion will hit Palace hard this month, as they face the busiest December of any Premier League team. Sunday kicks off a run of 11 matches across 4 competitions in just 34 days, a real test of a Palace side that failed to add significant squad depth in the summer. While fatigue will make Palace a target for bettors in the weeks to come, Sunday’s clash does look well-timed. Thursday’s trip to Dublin to face Shelbourne is the start of a run of 5 games in 12 days, but there’s a bit of time either side of this visit to Craven Cottage for Oliver Glasner to work with.

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