Soccer Picks

The return of the Premier League this weekend will be welcomed by both Brighton and Newcastle, who have both been in good form to start the season. While the pair sit 11th and 12th in the Premier League table, both teams have only lost 2 games each from their opening 7 games, and there should be plenty of optimism in both camps.  Brighton have avoided defeat at home so far this season, beating Manchester City and keeping Tottenham at bay in a 2-2 tie.  The Seagulls have also beaten Chelsea away from home and they should be a tough nut to crack. Sadly for Fabian Hurzeler’s team, the Magpies have been robust at the back, with only Arsenal conceding fewer goals. Eddie Howe’s side has yet to lose on the road, and after 3 wins in 4 games, they will travel to Brighton with a spring in their step.

While Newcastle’s defensive record has been impressive this season, this matchup is often a banker for an end-to-end battle. Both teams have scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings between the pair since 2021. Brighton’s xG of 11.2 is only bettered by 4 teams, while Newcastle’s is a healthy 8.4. Both sides have averaged over 11 shots each per game, and there’s every chance we will witness another lively affair at the AMEX Stadium this weekend.

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Mikel Arteta will have been delighted to have been able to reach the latest international break with his team at the top of the Premier League standings, and there looks a strong chance they will be able to kick on from the restart when they make the short trip across London to face Fulham. The Gunners have finished as runners-up in each of the last 3 seasons, but there looks strong evidence that they can go one better this time, with Arteta having formed a strong lineup who look set to challenge on multiple fronts. While the signing of striker Viktor Gyokeres at center forward, something Emirates loyalists have been crying out for in recent seasons, grabbed most of the headlines before the transfer window shut, it is Arteta’s defense that has been particularly impressive. Just 3 goals have been conceded this season from 7 league games and just one of those came from open play, so the foundations are there and that is bad news for Fulham.

The Cottagers have lost their last 2 games by 3-1 scorelines to Aston Villa and Bournemouth, and while manager Marco Silva felt they did enough to get something from their trip to the Vitality Stadium after Ryan Sessegnon gave them the lead, they are not creating many strong chances. Fulham have scored more than once in just 1 of their 7 league outings and their 2 wins have not been that convincing. They needed a bizarre late own goal to claim a 1-0 win over Leeds, and although they posted a subsequent 3-1 success over Brentford, their expected-goals (xG) mark was just 1.0, so it is questionable whether they have the firepower to trouble the strong Gunners defense. With that in mind an Arsenal win in a shutout at plus-money odds looks very appealing.

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Charlotte FC are looking to secure home-field advantage in the first round of the MLS playoffs with a top-4 finish in the Eastern Conference, and they can claim a vital victory against Philadelphia Union, who will be the number one seed. Charlotte have recorded shutouts in 5 of their last 7 at home.

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Occupying the 9th and final playoff position in the Eastern Conference, there is plenty on the line for Columbus Crew and they should have the answers. Visitors New York Red Bulls have missed out on the playoffs and they have lost 6 of their last 8 on the road.

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Inter Miami are vying with FC Cincinnati for 2nd place in the Eastern Conference, while Nashville SC need a victory to finish in the top 4. That could lead to a free-scoring encounter and both teams have scored in 10 of Nashville’s last 11. Expect that trend to continue and for this one to turn into a shootout.

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Seattle Sounders are guaranteed to finish 5th in the Western Conference while New York City will be chasing victory in order to get home-field advantage in the first round of the MLS playoffs. That makes for an intriguing matchup but Seattle have lost their last 3 road games in the MLS and look up against it.

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Both of these teams should be fully motivated on the final day of the MLS season, with Portland looking to avoid the wild-card round while San Diego could still win the Western Conference in their first MLS season. The newcomers’ form has tailed off a little, though, and both sides may have to settle for a point.

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Vancouver Whitecaps need a point to guarantee the #1 seed in the Western Conference but defeat for Dallas could see them missing the playoffs. Both teams have scored in 7 of Vancouver’s last 9 MLS games and in Dallas’s last 4, and that looks a solid bet in this last-day matchup.

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A huge 11 places and 28 points separated Aston Villa in 6th and 17th-placed Tottenham in last season’s Premier League, but things have been flipped in the early part of this campaign, with Spurs 3rd and the Villans 13th ahead of this round of games. A dismal start made up of 2 draws and no wins in 5 games is to blame for Villa’s lowly position, but they have steadied the ship since, winning each of their last 4 matches in all competitions.  Those victories have come against Bologna, Fulham, Feyenoord and Burnley, though, and they will have to work harder for a positive result at high-flying Spurs on Sunday.

The Lilywhites have made an excellent start under Thomas Frank, losing just 2 of their 11 games, and these 2 in-form sides are expected to put on a show at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Frank has certainly taken a more defensive approach than his predecessor – admittedly, that is not hard given the previous Spurs manager was gung-ho Aussie Ange Postecoglou – but Tottenham’s only shutout in 5 games has come against League One Doncaster. They are favorites to take maximum points on Sunday, but that defensive record leaves them looking vulnerable against a resurgent Villa, who have scored 9 goals during a 5-game unbeaten run.

Morgan Rogers and Ollie Watkins were on target in England’s win over Wales last week, which should only boost their confidence, and all signs point towards both teams finding the net in this one.

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Liverpool suffered their 3rd consecutive defeat at Stamford Bridge before the international break, but with a couple of weeks to reset and a return to Anfield, they should be able to get back to winning ways against Manchester United on Sunday. The Reds have ridden their luck at times this season, and their reversal of fortunes was hardly unexpected, but they have still won all 5 of their competitive home games this season, and they can take advantage of their visitors’ struggles to regain some of their lost confidence.

Manchester United did clinch 3 points against Sunderland last time out, but they are yet to win away from home this season, and they have not won at Anfield in almost a decade. However, Ruben Amorim does appear to have made headway in solving the goalscoring problem that plagued them last season, and they head to Merseyside having scored in 6 of their 8 fixtures this campaign. With that in mind, the value bet looks to be Liverpool winning with both teams scoring.

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Nottingham Forest are eyeing up their 3rd manager of the season already, and Ange Postecoglou’s departure could be hastened when his team hosts Chelsea on Saturday. The Australian has drawn the ire of supporters after beginning his Tricky Trees reign with a 7-game winless run, and his team returns from the October international break on the brink of the Premier League relegation zone.

Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca also found himself under pressure recently, but wins over Benfica and Liverpool eased his burdens before the international break, and the Blues look good value to edge into the top 4 ahead of their competitors’ fixtures this weekend. The Club World Cup champions have won half of their 10 competitive matches this season and they were 1 of only 5 teams to beat Forest at the City Ground last season. Chelsea look good value to inflict more misery on Forest and Postecoglou on Saturday.

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