Manchester United vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction, Odds and Picks for Thursday, 05/08/25

Manchester United’s 3-0 win in Bilbao last week has left them just 90 minutes away from a return to the Basque city for this season’s Europa League final. Athletic were dreaming of a home European final, potentially as the perfect goodbye to Spain star Nico Williams. Instead, they need an improbable Old Trafford comeback in order to progress. The one glimmer of hope the visitors can cling to here is that the Red Devils have had their shaky moments in Europe this season. They allowed a 2-0 lead at home to Lyon slip in the last round, going from a 4-2 aggregate lead to a 6-4 deficit in under 40 minutes. While United are in pole position to qualify, their struggles this season suggest it won’t be an entirely stress-free evening for the Old Trafford faithful. Athletic need to force the issue at Old Trafford, which should put the United defense under pressure. The Red Devils found themselves behind early in Lyon in the last round, while they conceded after 10 minutes against Athletic’s rivals Real Sociedad in the last 16.

United went to Bilbao after conceding in 7 of their previous 8 Europa League ties, while they conceded 1.1 Expected Goals against a 10-man Athletic side in the first leg. The hosts have conceded 1.0 xG or higher on 9 occasions in Europe this term, but they’ve also kicked into gear at the other end. The Red Devils have scored at least twice in each of their last 4 Europa League games, generating 11.3 xG. They’ve scored 31 times across their 13 matches in the competition, while recording only 3 shutouts. With the visitors in need of an early breakthrough, expect the game to open up and for this one to develop into a goalfest.

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