Real Madrid vs Benfica Prediction, Odds and Picks for Wednesday, 02/25/26

Real Madrid bring a 1-0 first-leg lead back to the Bernabeu for an eagerly anticipated return clash with Benfica in the Champions League playoff round on Wednesday. The first match in Lisbon was marred by an incident of alleged racism toward Vinicius Junior, and UEFA have provisionally suspended Gianluigi Prestianni “without prejudice” for one game pending a thorough investigation.

Los Blancos have not been convincing in the Champions League this season, but it is usually around this time that they start to hit their stride. They sputtered through the league stage last year with 3 losses in 8 games before turning it on in the knockouts against Manchester City and Atletico Madrid.

Benfica were 1 of the 3 teams to inflict defeat on them in this season’s competition as Alvaro Arbeloa’s team lost their cool in Lisbon amid late red cards for Raul Asencio and Rodrygo. But we should probably expect a laser-focused and altogether better performance from them this time around. For starters, there is much more at stake, but the main reason why Kylian Mbappe and company are likely to be at it from the first whistle is the sense of unfinished business with Benfica. Some of the Portuguese club’s reactions to what happened last week have not gone down well at all and it could all blow up in their faces at the Bernabeu. Real Madrid won their last home European game 6-1 against Monaco and while this unlikely to be as savage, a win by at least 2 goals looks worth backing.

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