Aston Villa vs Chelsea Prediction, Odds and Picks for Wednesday, 03/04/26

Aston Villa’s season has taken a real downward turn lately and Chelsea may be the latest beneficiaries when the pair meet on Wednesday. Unai Emery’s side were beaten 2-0 by rivals Wolves on Friday to make it 1 win from their last 6 games as they lost further ground in the race for a top-four spot in the Premier League. Chelsea are some of their primary challengers for a Champions League spot and are expected to take advantage of their opponents’ recent struggles with a road victory.

Villa have now scored just 4 goals in their last 6 games, with their expected goals overperformance from earlier in the season seemingly coming back to haunt them as they regress to the mean. Despite being 4th in the EPL standings, Villa’s expected goal difference of -4.1 puts them 12th in the Premier League standings and their on-field performances as of late have reflected that. The January signing of Tammy Abraham has failed to bring life to this attacking unit and whatever slim title ambitions they had have surely dissipated with Villa now 13 points off league leaders Arsenal. Villa are the 2nd-lowest scorers in the EPL’s top 10, with only Everton netting fewer than their 38 goals in 28 matches.

Aston Villa host a Chelsea team that gave the Gunners a scare on Sunday, largely holding their own before the sending off of Pedro Neto saw Mikel Arteta’s men comfortably see out a 2-1 win. The Blues have now received 7 red cards this season, putting them 2 short of matching the Premier League record with 10 games to go. Both of their goals conceded against Arsenal were from set-pieces, a trend which has also dogged Chelsea throughout the season. Liam Rosenior’s team is 6 points behind Villa but could start to bridge that gap by bouncing back against their hosts. Arsenal remain the only team to have beaten Chelsea under Rosenior, although they have done it 3 times, and the Blues may have too much attacking quality for this Villa team.

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