UFC 315: Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena Prediction for Sunday, 05/11/25

The Main Event at UFC 315 will see Belal Muhammad take on Jack Della Maddalena for the UFC Welterweight title. Muhammad enters this fight with an MMA record of 24-3 and 15-3 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.39 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 43%. Muhammad absorbs 3.48 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 57%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 2.28 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 39% and a takedown defense of 89%.

Della Maddalena enters this fight with an MMA record of 17-2 and 8-0 in the UFC. He is averaging 6.74 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. Della Maddalena absorbs 4.27 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 66%. His grappling has been non-existent, though, averaging just 0.21 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 16% and a takedown defense of 70%.

Muhammad is the clear favorite given that he is the one who holds the Welterweight title. However, given Della Maddalena’s striking advantage and his power, he looks to be the best betting option to pull the upset. Della Maddalena’s main area of concern is grappling, but he has proven to have a strong enough takedown defense, which should limit the advantage Muhammad has in grappling. Because Della Maddalena has been perfect in the UFC and has been dominant, backing him to win will be our best bet.