UFC 315: Benoit Saint Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec Prediction for Tomorrow, 05/10/25

The first fight on the Main Card at UFC 315 will see Benoit Saint Denis take on Kyle Prepolec. This will be a fight in the UFC Lightweight division. Saint Denis enters this fight with an MMA record of 13-3 and 5-3 in the UFC. He is averaging 5.17 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. Saint Denis is absorbing 4.98 strikes and has a striking defense of 41%. His grappling is also elite, averaging 3.97 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.2 submission attempts during the same period. Saint Denis has a takedown accuracy of 37% and a takedown defense of 68%.

Prepolec enters this fight with an MMA record of 18-8 and 0-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.20 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 34%. Prepolec is absorbing 4.70 strikes and has a striking defense of 54%. He has shown no grappling ability, but has a takedown defense of 40%.

Saint Denis is easily the biggest favorite on this card; therefore, we cannot back him on the money line. Instead, we will be looking for this fight to go over 1.5 total rounds. Saint Denis has seen 3 of his last 4 UFC fights go over 1.5 rounds, while Prepolec has seen his only 2 UFC fights go over 1.5 total rounds. Prepolec has not had success in the UFC so far, but has been able to avoid being finished early in both of his fights. For that reason, backing the over 1.5 total rounds will be our lean.