UFC 318: Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier Prediction for Sunday, 07/20/25

The Main Event at UFC 318 will see Max Holloway take on Dustin Poirier. This will be a fight in the UFC Lightweight division. Holloway enters this fight with an MMA record of 26-8 and 22-8 in the UFC. He averages 7.16 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 47%. Holloway absorbs 4.76 strikes and has a striking defense of 59%. His grappling ability has been almost non-existent, averaging 0.25 takedowns every 15 minutes. Holloway has a takedown accuracy of 53% and he has a takedown defense of 83%.

Poirier enters this fight with an MMA record of 30-9 and 23-9 in the UFC. He is averaging 5.30 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. Poirier absorbs 4.33 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling has also been solid, averaging 1.24 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.3 submission attempts during the same period. Poirier has a takedown accuracy of 36% and a takedown defense of 64%.

Holloway is a moderate-sized favorite, but seeing that he has lost twice to Poirier previously, we will instead target this fight to end inside the distance. Poirier has seen his last 7 UFC fights end inside the distance, while Holloway has seen each of his last 3 UFC fights do the same. Given that both fighters have seen the majority of their recent fights end inside the distance, backing the same here will be our best bet.