UFC 320: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Alex Pereira Prediction for Sunday, 10/05/25

The Main Event at UFC 320 will see Magomed Ankalaev take on Alex Pereira. This will be a fight in the UFC Light Heavyweight division and for the UFC Light Heavyweight title. Ankalaev enters this fight with an MMA record of 21-1-1 and 12-1-1 in the UFC. He averages 3.66 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 52%. Ankalaev absorbs 2.46 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. His grappling is also decent, averaging 0.80 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 22% and a takedown defense of 87%.

Pereira enters this fight with an MMA record of 12-3 and 9-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 5.00 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 62%. Pereira is absorbing 3.50 strikes and has a striking defense of 53%. His grappling is not nearly as strong, averaging just 0.11 takedowns every 15 minutes. Pereira has a takedown accuracy of 50% and a takedown defense of 78%.

Magomedov is the significant favorite to retain his UFC Lightweight title; however, we will be looking for this fight to end inside the distance instead. Pereira has seen 9 of his 11 UFC fights end inside the distance, including 4 of his last 5 UFC fights. As for Magomedov, he has seen 2 of his last 5 UFC fights end inside the distance.

In the most recent fight between Magomedov and Pereira, the fight went the full 5 rounds. However, with this being a rematch, a faster-paced fight should be expected. For that reason, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be our play.