UFC 321: Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista Prediction for Tomorrow, 10/25/25
UFC 321: Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista Pickswise Expert Predictions
The third fight on the Main Card at UFC 321 will see Umar Nurmagomedov take on Mario Bautista. This will be a fight in the UFC Bantamweight division. Nurmagomedov enters this fight with an MMA record of 18-1 and 6-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.38 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. Nurmagomedov absorbs 2.15 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 60%. His grappling has also been elite, averaging 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 39% and his takedown defense is 78%.
Bautista enters this fight with an MMA record of 16-2 and 10-2 in the UFC. He averages 6.13 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%. Bautista absorbs 4.45 strikes and has a striking defense of 55%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.67 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 33% and a takedown defense of 67%.
Nurmagomedov is the significant favorite in this fight; therefore, we will target the fight to go the distance. Bautista has seen his last 4 UFC fights go the distance, while Nurmagomedov has seen 4 of his last 5 UFC fights do the same. For that reason, backing this fight to also go the distance will be our lean.
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