UFC 323: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van Prediction for Saturday, 12/06/25

The Co-Main Event at UFC 323 will see Alexandre Pantoja take on Joshua Van. This will be a fight in the UFC Flyweight division and will be for the UFC Flyweight title. Pantoja enters this fight with an MMA record of 30-5 and 14-3 in the UFC. He averages 4.36 strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. Pantoja absorbs 3.88 strikes and has a striking defense of 49%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 2.80 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.0 submission attempts during the same period. Pantoja has a takedown accuracy of 47% and a takedown defense of 69%.

Van enters this fight with an MMA record of 15-2 and 8-1 in the UFC. He averages 8.86 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 56%. Van absorbs 6.36 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. His grappling is also decent, averaging 0.85 takedowns every 15 minutes. Van has a takedown accuracy of 63% and a takedown defense of 81%.

Pantoja is the heavy favorite, but still looks to be the best betting option. He has won 8 UFC fights in a row and has defended his UFC Flyweight title a total of four times. Further, Pantoja has the edge in grappling, so while his striking volume does not stack up to Van’s, he is still a strong enough striker to be able to stand up and fight. Van has had plenty of success in the UFC, but has not faced a fighter who is as balanced as Pantoja. For that reason, backing Pantoja to win will be our lean.