UFC 323: Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott Prediction for Saturday, 12/06/25

The second fight on the Main Card at UFC 323 will see Henry Cejudo take on Payton Talbott. This will be a fight in the UFC Bantamweight division. Cejudo enters this fight with an MMA record of 16-5 and 10-5 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.82 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 47%. Cejudo absorbs 3.46 strikes and has a striking defense of 59%. His grappling ability is also solid, averaging 1.84 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 31% and a takedown defense of 76%.

Talbott enters this fight with an MMA record of 10-1 and 5-1 in the UFC. He averages 6.05 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54%. Talbott absorbs 3.26 strikes and has a striking defense of 46%. His grappling has been weak, averaging just 0.24 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 25% and a takedown defense of 76%.

Talbott is the strong favorite, but still looks to be the best betting option. He has been much more consistent recently, while Cejudo has lost his last 3 UFC fights in a row. Talbot also has the clear advantage in striking volume. Even though Cejudo has the advantage in grappling, Talbott’s takedown defense has been strong enough to limit this advantage. For that reason, backing Talbott to win will be our lean.