UFC 326: Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira Prediction for Saturday, 03/07/26

The Main Event at UFC 326 will see Max Holloway take on Charles Oliveira. This will be a fight in the UFC Lightweight division. Holloway enters this fight with an MMA record of 27-8 and 23-8 in the UFC. He averages 7.20 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Holloway absorbs 4.74 strikes and has a striking defense of 59%. His grappling ability has been almost non-existent, averaging 0.24 takedowns every 15 minutes. Holloway has a takedown accuracy of 53% and a takedown defense of 83%.

Oliveira enters this fight with an MMA record of 36-11 and 24-11 in the UFC. He averages 3.35 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54%. Oliveira absorbs 3.24 strikes and has a striking defense of 49%. He also has elite grappling ability, averaging 2.22 takedowns every 15 minutes and 2.6 submission attempts during the same period. His takedown accuracy is 40%, and his takedown defense is 54%.

Holloway is the heavy favorite in this fight; therefore, we will be looking for this fight to last at least a few rounds. Holloway is generally known for his fights lasting long, as he has seen 16 of his last 18 UFC fights go over 2.5 rounds. Oliveira, on the other hand, has seen just 2 of his last 4 fights go over 2.5 rounds. That said, because of Holloway’s resilience, this should be a back-and-forth fight; therefore, backing over 2.5 rounds is our lean.