UFC Fight Night 256: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales Prediction for Saturday, 05/17/25

The Main Event at UFC Fight Night 256 will see Gilbert Burns take on Michael Morales. This will be a fight in the UFC Welterweight division. Morales comes into this fight with an MMA record of 17-0 and 6-0 in the UFC. He is averaging 5.42 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Morales is absorbing 3.42 strikes and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling is also decent, averaging 1.16 takedowns per 15 minutes. Morales has a takedown accuracy of 41% and a takedown defense of 92%.

Burns comes into this fight with an MMA record of 22-8 and 15-8 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.17 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Burns is absorbing 3.57 strikes and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling has also been solid throughout this UFC career, averaging 2.10 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 37% and a takedown defense of 53%.

Morales is the overwhelming favorite; therefore, instead of backing him on the money line, we will be looking at how he could win this fight. Morales has won 3 of his 6 UFC fights by KO/TKO and 12 of his 17 career fights by the same method. Burns has lost his last 3 fights in a row and has 3 career losses by KO/TKO. Given that Morales has proven to have a ton of power and Burns has become inconsistent, backing Morales to win by KO/TKO will be our best bet.