UFC Fight Night 257: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta Prediction for Saturday, 08/23/25

The third fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 257 will see Sergei Pavlovich take on Waldo Cortes-Acosta. This will be a fight in the UFC Heavyweight division. Pavlovich enters this fight with an MMA record of 19-3 and 7-3 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.54 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 43%. Pavlovich is absorbing 3.81 strikes and has a striking defense of 54%. His grappling ability is decent, averaging 0.63 takedowns every 15 minutes. Pavlovich has a takedown accuracy of 40% and a takedown defense of 75%.

Cortes-Acosta enters this fight with an MMA record of 14-1 and 8-1 in the UFC. He averages 5.98 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Cortes-Acosta absorbs 3.43 strikes and has a striking defense of 55%. His grappling is decent at best, averaging 0.42 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 50% and a takedown defense of 66%.

Pavlovich is the heavy favorite; therefore, we will be targeting this fight to end inside the distance. Waldo-Cortes has seen just 2 of his last 5 UFC fights end inside the distance; however, Pavlovich has seen 8 of his 10 UFC fights do the same. For that reason, backing this fight to also end inside the distance will be our play.