UFC Fight Night 259: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Dustin Stoltzfus Prediction for Saturday, 09/13/25

The second fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 259 will see Kelvin Gastelum take on Dustin Stoltzfus. This will be a fight in the UFC Middleweight division. Gastelum enters this fight with an MMA record of 20-10 and 13-10 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.67 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. Gastelum absorbs 3.49 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. His grappling is also decent, averaging 1.05 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 34% and a takedown defense of 58%.

Stoltzfus enters this fight with an MMA record of 16-7 and 4-6 in the UFC. He averages 3.14 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. Stoltzfus absorbs 3.14 strikes and has a striking defense of 47%. His grappling has also been solid, averaging 2.26 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.3 submission attempts during the same period. Stoltzfus has a takedown accuracy of 41% and a takedown defense of 46%.

Gastelum is the heavy favorite for this fight, so instead, we will look at this fight to go over 2.5 rounds. Stoltzfus has seen xx, while Gastelum has seen 6 of his last 7 fights do the same. Because of this, backing this fight to go over 2.5 rounds will be our play.