UFC Fight Night 259: Rafa Garcia vs. Jared Gordon Prediction for Today, 09/13/25

The third fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 259 will see Rafa Garcia take on Jared Gordon. This will be a fight in the UFC Lightweight division. Garcia enters this fight with an MMA record of 17-43 and 5-4 in the UFC. He averages 4.01 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 43%. Garcia absorbs 4.47 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. His grappling is also elite, averaging 3.21 takedowns every 15 minutes. Garcia has a takedown accuracy of 43% and his takedown defense is 77%.

Gordon enters this fight with an MMA record of 21-7 and 9-6 in the UFC. He averages 5.67 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 55%. Gordon absorbs 3.91 strikes and has a striking defense of 56%. His grappling has also been solid, averaging 1.83 takedowns every 15 minutes. Gordon has a takedown accuracy of 32% and a takedown defense of 62%.

Gordon is the heavy favorite in this fight, but his lack of consistency in the UFC could make Garcia a worthwhile bet to pull the upset. Garcia is 5-2 in his last 7 UFC fights, while Gordon is 4-3 over the same stretch. Gordon has the edge in striking volume; however, Garcia has the clear edge in grappling ability. Because of this, backing Garcia to win will be our play.