UFC Fight Night 261: Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot Prediction for Tomorrow, 10/11/25

The Main Event at UFC Fight Night 261 will see Charles Oliveira take on Mateusz Gamrot. This will be a fight in the UFC Lightweight division. Oliveira enters this fight with an MMA record of 35-11 and 23-11 in the UFC. He averages 3.41 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 55%. Oliveira absorbs 3.26 strikes and has a striking defense of 48%. He also has elite grappling ability, averaging 2.23 takedowns every 15 minutes and 2.6 submission attempts during the same period. His takedown accuracy is 39% and his takedown defense is 56%.

Gamrot comes into this fight with an MMA record of 25-3 and 8-3 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.35 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. Gamrot is absorbing 3.04 strikes and has a striking defense of 59%. His grappling is also elite, averaging 5.33 takedowns every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 36%, and his takedown defense is 90%.

This fight is evenly matched, with Oliveira the slight favorite. That being said, Gamrot looks to be the best betting option. Gamrot has won 4 of his last 5 UFC fights, compared to Oliveira, who has lost 3 of his last 5 UFC fights. Further, Gamrot has a clear edge in grappling, plus he has an elite takedown defense that could nullify Oliveira’s ability to force a submission. Given this, backing Gamrot to win will be our best bet.