UFC Fight Night 261: Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto Prediction for Tomorrow, 10/11/25

The third fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 261 will see Jhonata Diniz take on Mario Pinto. This will be a fight in the UFC Heavyweight division. Diniz enters this fight with an MMA record of 9-1 and 4-1 in the UFC. He averages 4.58 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 56%. Diniz absorbs 3.71 strikes and has a striking defense of 59%. He has not shown any grappling ability, but has a takedown defense of 78%.

Pinto enters this fight with an MMA record of 10-0 and 2-0 in the UFC. He averages 3.67 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 71%. Pinto absorbs 5.29 strikes and has a striking defense of 51%. He has not shown any grappling ability, but has a takedown defense of 100%.

Diniz is the small favorite; however, we will be looking for this fight to end inside the distance instead. Pinto has seen both of his UFC fights end inside the distance, while Diniz has seen 3 of his 5 UFC fights end inside the distance, including his most recent fight. Because both fighters have had a high finish rate recently, backing this fight to also end inside the distance will be our best bet.