UFC Fight Night 261: Vicente Luque vs. Joel Alvarez Prediction for Tomorrow, 10/11/25

The fourth fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 261 will see Vicente Luque take on Joel Alvarez. This will be a fight in the UFC Welterweight division. Luque enters this fight with an MMA record of 23-11-1 and 16-7 in the UFC. He is averaging 5.02 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. Luque absorbs 5.25 strikes and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling is also decent, averaging 0.97 takedowns every 15 minutes. Luque has a takedown accuracy of 51% and a takedown defense of 61%.

Alvarez comes into this fight with an MMA record of 22-3 and 7-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.51 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. Alvarez absorbs 3.32 strikes and has a striking defense of 50%. He has yet to show any grappling ability, but does average 1.2 submissions per 15 minutes. He also has a takedown defense of 40%.

Because Alvarez is one of the biggest favorites on this card, we will be looking at the method of victory. Alvarez has seen 5 of his 9 UFC fights end by KO/TKO, which includes 3 of his last 4 UFC fights. As for Luque, he has seen 2 of his last 5 UFC fights also end by KO/TKO. Given that Alvarez and Luque have seen a fair amount of their fights end by KO/TKO recently, backing the same here will be our best bet.