UFC Fight Night 262: Kyle Nelson vs. Matt Frevola Prediction for Tomorrow, 10/18/25

The first fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 262 will see Kyle Nelson take on Matt Frevola. This will be a fight in the UFC Lightweight division. Nelson comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-6-1 and 4-5-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.51 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. Nelson is absorbing 4.72 strikes and has a striking defense of 51%. His grappling is decent at best, averaging 1.06 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 20% and a takedown defense of 73%.

Frevola enters this fight with an MMA record of 11-5-1 and he is 6-5-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.37 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 40%. Frevola is absorbing 3.69 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. He also has some solid grappling ability, averaging 2.39 takedowns every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 39% and his takedown defense is 36%.

This fight is evenly matched, but given the inconsistencies shown by both Nelson and Frevola, we will be looking to back this fight to end inside the distance. Nelson has seen 6 of his 10 UFC fights end inside the distance, which includes his last 2 fights in a row. As for Frevola, he has seen each of his last 6 UFC fights end inside the distance. Based on this, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be our lean.