UFC Fight Night 265: Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Machado Garry Prediction for Saturday, 11/22/25

The Co-Main Event at UFC Fight Night 265 will see Belal Muhammad take on Ian Machado Garry. This will be a fight in the UFC Welterweight division. Muhammad enters this fight with an MMA record of 24-4 and 15-4 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.46 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 43%. Muhammad absorbs 3.78 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 55%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 2.24 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 38% and a takedown defense of 90%.

Garry enters this fight with an MMA record of 16-1 and 9-1 in the UFC. He averages 4.77 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54%. Garry is absorbing 2.77 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 51%. His grappling is also decent, averaging 1.02 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 33% and a takedown defense of 73%.

For this fight, we will be targeting it to go the distance. Muhammad has seen 8 of his last 9 UFC fights go the distance, while Garry has seen 7 of his last 9 UFC fights do the same. Given that both fighters have rarely finished their fights inside the distance, backing this fight to go the distance will be our lean.