UFC Fight Night 266: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira Prediction for Saturday, 02/07/26

The Main Event at UFC Fight Night 266 will see Mario Bautista take on Vinicius Oliveira. This will be a fight in the UFC Bantamweight division. Bautista enters this fight with an MMA record of 16-3 and 10-3 in the UFC. He averages 5.58 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Bautista absorbs 4.19 strikes and has a striking defense of 55%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.48 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 32% and a takedown defense of 54%.

Oliveira enters this fight with an MMA record of 23-3 and 5-0 in the UFC. He is averaging 5.28 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 43%. Oliveira is absorbing 2.89 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. He also has solid grappling, averaging 1.67 takedowns every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 50%, and his takedown defense is 80%.

While Bautista is the decent-sized favorite in this fight, Oliveira looks to be the best betting option. For one, Oliveira is perfect in the UFC, while Bautista is coming off a loss in his most recent fight. Oliveira also has the advantage in grappling and has a comparable striking volume to Bautista. Further, Oliveira absorbs much less damage compared to Bautista; therefore, backing Oliveira to win will be our best bet.