UFC Fight Night 270: Luke Riley take on Michael Aswell Jr. Prediction for Saturday, 03/21/26

The Co-Main Event at UFC Fight Night 270 will see Luke Riley take on Michael Aswell Jr. This will be a fight in the UFC Featherweight division. Riley enters this fight with an MMA record of 12-0 and 1-0 in the UFC. He is averaging 2.55 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 60%. Riley absorbs 1.27 strikes and has a striking defense of 46%. He did not show any grappling ability in his lone UFC fight, but he has a takedown defense of 42%.

Aswell Jr. enters this fight with an MMA record of 11-3 and 1-2 in the UFC. He averages 9.56 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. Aswell Jr. absorbs 7.79 strikes and has a striking defense of 54%. He has also not shown any grappling ability, but he has a takedown defense of 57%.

With Riley set as the overwhelming favorite, we will look for this fight to end inside the distance. Riley has seen 9 of his 12 career MMA fights by finish, which includes his lone UFC fight. Aswell Jr., on the other hand, has seen 6 of his 14 career MMA fights end inside the distance, which includes his most recent fight in the UFC. They both have shown the ability to be elite strikers; therefore, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be our lean.