UFC Fight Night 271: Terrance McKinney vs. Kyle Nelson Predictions for Tomorrow, 03/28/26

The first fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 271 will see Terrance McKinney take on Kyle Nelson. This will be a fight in the UFC Lightweight division. McKinney enters this fight with an MMA record of 17-8 and 7-6 in the UFC. He is averaging 6.24 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 56%. McKinney absorbs 3.46 strikes and has a striking defense of 43%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 3.34 takedowns every 15 minutes and 2.1 submission attempts during the same period. His takedown accuracy is 40%, and his takedown defense is 72%.

Nelson comes into this fight with an MMA record of 17-6-1 and 5-5-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.60 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. Nelson is absorbing 4.48 strikes and has a striking defense of 53%. His grappling is decent at best, averaging 1.18 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 23% and a takedown defense of 66%.

McKinney is the clear favorite in this fight; however, he still looks to be the best betting option. Both fighters have been a little inconsistent in the UFC, but McKinney has the advantage in both striking volume and grappling. He is also much better at trying to force submissions; therefore, backing McKinney to win will be our lean.