UFC Fight Night 272: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan Predictions for Saturday, 04/04/26

The Main Event at UFC Fight Night 272 will see Renato Moicano take on Chris Duncan. This will be a fight in the UFC Lightweight division. Moicano enters this fight with an MMA record of 20-7-1 and 12-7 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.17 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Moicano is absorbing 3.57 strikes and has a striking defense of 59%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.67 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 41% and a takedown defense of 62%.

Duncan enters this fight with an MMA record of 15-2 and 7-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 5.02 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 46%. Duncan absorbs 4.82 strikes and has a striking defense of 47%. His grappling has also been elite, averaging 3.27 takedowns every 15 minutes. Duncan has a takedown accuracy of 42% and a takedown of 50%.

Duncan is the clear favorite in this fight; therefore, we will be targeting his method of victory. Moicano has recently struggled in the UFC, losing each of his last 2 fights. Further, he has lost 5 times by finish in his MMA career, while Duncan has won 11 times by finish in his MMA career. Duncan has also won 4 UFC fights in a row, 3 of which were by finish. Because of this, backing Duncan to win by a finish is our best bet.