UFC on ESPN 70: Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim Prediction for Today, 07/12/25

The Co-Main Event at UFC on ESPN 70 will see Stephen Thompson take on Gabriel Bonfim. This will be a fight in the UFC Welterweight division. Thompson enters this fight with an MMA record of 17-8-1 and 12-8-1. He is averaging 4.11 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 46%. Thompson absorbs 3.02 strikes and has a striking defense of 55%. His grappling has not been strong, averaging just 0.25 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 41% and a takedown defense of 63%.

Bonfim enters this fight with an MMA record of 17-1 and 5-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 5.22 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 43%. Bonfim is absorbing 3.80 strikes and has a striking defense of 65%. His grappling has also been elite, averaging 3.68 takedowns every 15 minutes and 2.2 submission attempts during the same period. He has a takedown accuracy of 76% and his takedown defense is 73%.

Seeing that Bonfim is the overwhelming favorite, we will be looking at the method by which he could win. Bonfim has won 4 of his 5 UFC fights by finish, including his most recent fight. As for Thompson, he has lost 4 of his last 5 UFC fights, two of which have been by finish. Given the recent struggles shown by Thompson and the high finish rate for Bonfim, backing him to win by finish will be our best bet.