UFC on ESPN 73: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown Prediction for Saturday, 11/08/25

The Main Event at UFC on ESPN 73 will see Gabriel Bonfim take on Randy Brown. This will be a fight in the UFC Welterweight division. Bonfim enters this fight with an MMA record of 18-1 and 6-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.54 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. Bonfim is absorbing 3.53 strikes and has a striking defense of 63%. His grappling has also been elite, averaging 4.03 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.6 submission attempts during the same period. He has a takedown accuracy of 55% and his takedown defense is 76%.

Brown enters this fight with an MMA record of 20-6 and 14-6 in the UFC. He averages 4.47 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 47%. Brown is absorbing 3.26 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 54%. His grappling has been decent, averaging 0.79 takedowns every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 39%, and his takedown defense is 73%.

Bonfim is the heavy favorite in this fight, but still looks to be the best betting option. He has a slight advantage in striking volume and a clear advantage in grappling. For that reason, backing Bonfim to win will be our play.