UFC on ESPN 73: Matt Schnell vs. Joseph Morales Prediction for Saturday, 11/08/25

The Co-Main Event at UFC on ESPN 73 will see Matt Schnell take on Joseph Morales. This will be a fight in the UFC Flyweight division. Schnell comes into this fight with an MMA record of 17-9 and 7-7 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.13 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 40%. Schnell is absorbing 4.17 strikes and has a striking defense of 55%. His grappling is not nearly as strong, averaging just 0.49 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.2 submission attempts during the same period. He has a takedown accuracy of 40% and a takedown defense of 43%.

Morales enters this fight with an MMA record of 14-2 and 2-2 in the UFC. He averages 2.02 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 40%. Morales absorbs 2.11 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. His grappling has been solid, averaging 1.23 takedowns every 15 minutes and 2.9 submission attempts during the same period. Morales has a takedown accuracy of 42% and a takedown defense of 28%.

For this fight, we will be targeting it to end inside the distance. Schnell has seen 5 of his last 6 UFC fights end inside the distance, while Morales has seen 3 of his 4 UFC fights do the same. Because both fighters have seen the majority of their recent fights end inside the distance, backing the same here will be our play.