UFC on ESPN 73: Melquizael Costa vs. Morgan Charriere Prediction

UFC on ESPN 73: Melquizael Costa vs. Morgan Charriere Prediction for Today, 12/13/25

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UFC on ESPN 73: Melquizael Costa vs. Morgan Charriere Pickswise Expert Predictions

Money Line Pick
Costa Win(-112)

The third fight on the Main Card at UFC on ESPN 73 will see Melquizael Costa take on Morgan Charriere. This will be a fight in the UFC Featherweight division. Costa enters this fight with an MMA record of 24-7 and 5-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.44 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%. Costa absorbs 3.09 strikes and has a striking defense of 54%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.96 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.2 submission attempts during the same period. He has a takedown accuracy of 38% and a takedown defense of 58%.

Charriere enters this fight with an MMA record of 21-11-1 and 3-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.08 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. Charriere is absorbing 4.54 strikes and has a striking defense of 53%. His grappling has also been solid, averaging 2.11 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 46% and a takedown defense of 83%.

This fight is evenly matched, with Costa set as the small favorite. That being said, he still looks to be the best betting option. Costa has a slight advantage in striking volume, plus is in much better form compared to Charriere. For that reason, backing Costa to win will be our play.

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Matthew Lowrimore

Matthew has been with Pickswise for a while now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passions are college football and UFC, and those are the sports he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will put in the research to try and achieve this. For Matt Lowrimore media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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