UFC on ESPN 73: Melquizael Costa vs. Morgan Charriere Prediction for Today, 12/13/25

The third fight on the Main Card at UFC on ESPN 73 will see Melquizael Costa take on Morgan Charriere. This will be a fight in the UFC Featherweight division. Costa enters this fight with an MMA record of 24-7 and 5-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.44 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%. Costa absorbs 3.09 strikes and has a striking defense of 54%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.96 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.2 submission attempts during the same period. He has a takedown accuracy of 38% and a takedown defense of 58%.

Charriere enters this fight with an MMA record of 21-11-1 and 3-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.08 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. Charriere is absorbing 4.54 strikes and has a striking defense of 53%. His grappling has also been solid, averaging 2.11 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 46% and a takedown defense of 83%.

This fight is evenly matched, with Costa set as the small favorite. That being said, he still looks to be the best betting option. Costa has a slight advantage in striking volume, plus is in much better form compared to Charriere. For that reason, backing Costa to win will be our play.