College Basketball Picks

In the midst of a 3-game losing streak, the Ole Miss Rebels will hit the road for the 3rd straight game – this time to Knoxville to play the Volunteers. Their last game was a struggle offensively, as the Rebels scored just 1.06 points per possession on 49% from two-point range and 27% from beyond the arc at Vanderbilt. That came on the heels of an even worse offensive showing at Rupp Arena, where Ole Miss scored just 0.94 points per possession on 32% from two-point range and 33% from three-point range. 

Tennessee is on a much different run than Ole Miss, as the Vols have won 3 in a row over Alabama, Georgia and Auburn. Their most recent outing against the Tigers wasn’t exactly pretty from an offensive perspective, but the Volunteers were strong defensively against a red-hot Auburn squad and controlled the glass in a big way (46-30). At 5-3 SU in conference, the Vols are on the outside looking in when it comes to a first-round bye in the SEC Tournament, but they have also played the most difficult conference schedule to this point (KenPom). With a favorable SEC schedule ahead of them, Tennessee may be poised to make a run for one of those coveted top-4 spots in the league.

I’m a buyer of Tennessee here, and a lot of it has to do with the Vols’ advantage on the glass. This is the best offensive rebounding team in the country, and Ole Miss doesn’t have much front-court size to limit them on the boards. In fact, the Rebels are 249th in potential second-chance points allowed and 190th in second-chance conversion rate (Haslametrics), so the Vols should at least meet their season average of 16.4 second-chance points per game, if not completely blow by it. Twenty percent of Tennessee’s points come off second-chance opportunities, which puts them in the 99th percentile per CBB Analytics. 

I also like the matchup defensively for Tennessee. The Rebels should have some success getting to the rim, but there’s going to need more than that to cover this spread, much less win the game. Ole Miss operates heavily in the mid-range, and the Volunteers have great length to contest or even limit those shots, holding opponents to sub-34% on those attempts. We’ve also seen a healthy amount of Malik Dia post-ups in this offense, but Tennessee is right around the 80th percentile defensively against those sets. Given the travel situation for Ole Miss, in combination with the advantages defensively and on the boards for the Vols, it’s Tennessee or pass for me.

Ole Miss vs Tennessee prediction: Tennessee Volunteers -11.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to -13. 

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We head to the Big East on Tuesday night, a league that clearly belongs to UConn while everyone else is just happy to be there. The Huskies will host the Xavier Musketeers, a team they beat in Cincinnati by a score of 90-67 in late December. UConn has pushed their winning streak to 17 games now, although notably, they are winning games but are regularly not covering. The Musketeers just snapped a 3-game losing streak by beating DePaul, but this is UConn we are talking about. I don’t see Xavier staying close in this one. Give me the Huskies to cover the big number at -17.5.

The thing about UConn is that they play a deliberate style of offense that is ruthlessly efficient. They rank outside the top 300 in pace of play, but they are 30^th in offensive efficiency. Their defense is even better, and it grinds on teams, especially when they just had to guard for 30 seconds on the other end. It is not a style that leads to a lot of blowouts, but we shouldn’t discount the 23-point win already in this matchup. UConn does not allow 3s and they rebound aggressively, and if you take away outside shots and second chance points, I am not sure how Xavier stays in this one. The Musketeers like to play fast, but it is hard to speed up the Huskies. This is just a bad matchup for the X-Men, and I am taking UConn to roll.

Xavier vs UConn Prediction: UConn -17.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The SMU Mustangs will return home to the Dallas area on Tuesday for a big matchup against the NC State Wolfpack. The Mustangs were in Louisville on Saturday, where they held a commanding 19-7 lead early, but the Cardinals woke up in a big way and ultimately won by 14. It was a poor offensive showing from SMU, especially from deep, as they scored just 0.99 points per possession thanks to an 8/25 result from range. They also turned the ball over 16 times. 

For as inconsistent as NC State was in the non-conference portion of their schedule, the Wolfpack have really turned it on in ACC play – except for that head-scratching home loss to Georgia Tech. At 7-2, the Pack is tied with Virginia at 3rd in the ACC, trailing just Duke and Clemson. Conference road games are typically very difficult to find repeated success in, but NC State has bucked that trend this season with a perfect 5-0 SU road record against ACC opponents. Will that continue on Tuesday? I’m not so sure. 

SMU coach Andy Enfield has a history of struggling against top-50 teams, and while NC State is just that per KenPom’s rankings, the Wolfpack’s best win is over #32 Clemson. That represents half the number of wins NC State has over a top-50 team, accompanied by 5 losses, so we haven’t really seen NC State have much success against their best opponents. For reference, SMU is a top-50 team with 2 wins that are better than NC State’s best. 

The Wolfpack play downhill, attacking the rim and getting out in transition as frequently as possible. Unfortunately for them, SMU denies rim action very well thanks to Samet Yigitoglu and his top-125 block rate. The Mustangs also limit transition opportunities, sitting in the 36th percentile in opposing transition frequency (Hoop-Explorer). This is enough for me to lean to SMU, especially as a home underdog.

NC State vs SMU prediction: SMU Mustangs +2.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 2.

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The Indiana Hoosiers will travel to Los Angeles on Tuesday night for a Big 10 Conference game against the USC Trojans. The Hoosiers are looking to sweep their west coast trip after beating UCLA on Saturday in double overtime. Indiana has won three straight games and are a slight underdog against USC in this game. The Trojans are coming off a win against Rutgers in their last game and will to get back to .500 in conference play. I am going to back the home team here and take USC -1.

USC -1 is my best bet of the game because I believe their defense will good enough to slow down Indiana’s offense. Indiana’s offense is ranked #29 in adjusted offensive efficiency, but they rely heavily on the three-point shot. 39.2 percent of Indiana’s points are from three and that is ranked #23 in the country, according to KenPom. USC is very good at defending the three-point line and that could cause issues for Indiana. The Trojans offense also gets to the free throw line better than anyone and that should influence this one. USC’s offense is ranked #2 in free throw rate while Indiana’s defense is ranked #248. Take USC here.

*USC -1 available at time of publishing. Playable at -2*

It’s a Mountain West showdown as UNLV makes its way to Fresno, with both teams looking to climb the standings with just over a month left to play. UNLV struggled in its last outing against Nevada, allowing the Wolf Pack to shoot 58% from the floor, and the Rebels will need to tighten up defensively if they want to keep this one close. Fresno State had little trouble handling Air Force, as expected, shooting 46.7% from the floor in their recent win. 

On paper, these two teams are fairly even. UNLV holds a slight edge offensively, averaging 77.9 points per game compared to Fresno State’s 72.1, but the Rebels have had their issues on the defensive end, allowing 77.9 points per game. Fresno State has been more consistent defensively, holding opponents to just 70.3 points per game. Both teams have talented guard play. Dravyn Gibbs-Lawhorn has really improved in recent games for the Rebels, averaging 20.5 points per game over his last four, slightly higher than his seasonal average of 17.5. Jake Heidbreder leads the Bulldogs with 17.1 points per game this season, but he hasn’t been as electric from the floor like Gibbs-Lawhorn has been in recent games. This is going to be an exciting matchup to watch, and the last time these two teams faced off, UNLV walked away with an 84-72 victory where they shot 57.1% from the floor. The Bulldogs have a few things to tighten up heading into this game, but with stronger guard play, I think the Rebels will find a way to get it done and steal one on the road. 

UNLV vs Fresno State prediction: UNLV ML (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Normally, this would be considered a heavyweight bout with 2 pedigrees squaring off for bragging rights and historical supremacy. The market, however, has treated the Orange like an afterthought. UNC comes in ranked and 17-4 SU, while the Orange are sitting at 13-9 SU and unranked. As a result, the media is giving ‘Cuse no chance to win. The price reflects that sentiment, but it is too many points.

Let’s talk about Syracuse’s resume. The Orange lost 4 games by a combined 10 points, which include narrow losses at a ranked Clemson and Houston (the latter in overtime). The Orange also have another overtime loss. Flip those results the other way and Syracuse has the same record as the Tar Heels — and the Orange are likely ranked, too. Should that be the case, the price in this contest is also much closer than the heavy lumber on offer at the present moment. To add, the Orange also own a win over Tennessee this season — a Tennessee team that at one point was sitting in the top 10. What are we trying to say? Syracuse can rise up to the level of its opponent, and treating the Orange like a proverbial speed bump is an oversight. As a result, the number next to its name has all the makings of an overlay. There is also enormous lookahead potential, as well. On deck, the Heels square off with arch rival Duke in a huge showdown at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Saturday. As a result, we have a Syracuse team that is better than its record suggests taking back an enhanced number against an opponent who could easily be looking ahead. That makes the Orange the side to back.

Syracuse vs North Carolina prediction: Syracuse +11.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to +11.

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