College Football Picks

The College Football Playoff continues with a semifinal Fiesta Bowl matchup between the Miami Hurricanes and the Ole Miss Rebels on Thursday. The Hurricanes controversially (to some) made the playoff as the last team in, and they’ve proven they belong. Not only did they beat Texas A&M in College Station, but they handled the defending national champions in the Ohio State Buckeyes in the quarterfinals. While Miami was outgained by OSU, the Hurricanes held the Buckeyes to 1.9 yards per rush, 3/10 on 3rd downs, and forced QB Julian Sayin into 2 interceptions – notably Keionte Scott’s pick-6 on a bubble screen. The numbers really don’t even do it justice, as Miami dominated in the trenches. 

As for Ole Miss, the Rebels steamrolled Tulane in their opening playoff game without any issue and then managed to knock off Georgia in the Sugar Bowl 39-34 thanks to some late-game heroics by QB Trinidad Chambliss and questionable decisions by Kirby Smart. The Rebels outgained the Bulldogs 473-343 and held them to just 3/13 on 3rd downs, limiting them both on the ground and through the air. The Rebels also tallied 20 points in the final period to seal the win, which is surprising considering that is usually when the Bulldogs handle their business and pull away from their opponents. 

Ole Miss has the weakest defense of the remaining playoff teams, but I would argue some of that has to do with the pace at which the Rebels play offensively. The defense is still very good when compared to the average FBS team and seemed to improve down the stretch, as the Rebels entered the playoffs ranking 22nd in PPA per play, 5th in success rate and 11th in points allowed per quality drive. Admittedly, the schedule of offenses over that stretch wasn’t the best, but this unit has proven it can at least support the dynamic Rebels offense – a unit that was top-25 in the 3 aforementioned metrics over the course of the entire season. 

In order to be in position to win this game, Ole Miss has to withstand Miami’s pressure. The Hurricanes have the most lethal pass rush in the country and have wreaked havoc on their opponents throughout the season – finishing 9th in front-7 havoc generated outside of garbage time. That said, Chambliss has been just fine when facing pressure, completing 54.5% of his passes with 7 big-time throws and just 1 turnover-worthy play. His mobility enables him to evade pressure and avoid sacks, as shown by his top-40 rating in PFF’s pressure-to-sack rate in these situations. When opponents blitz Chambliss, his sack rate goes up, but he’s still a very effective passer, completing almost 62% of his passes with 14 big-time throws (3rd nationally) and just 3 turnover-worthy plays. 

In a game I project to be higher-scoring, I lean toward Ole Miss’ offense to provide a high enough floor to at least cover this number.

Miami vs Ole Miss prediction: Ole Miss Rebels +3.5 (-122) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $150 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Miami Florida vs Mississippi predictions.

As I alluded to previously, I expect this game to be higher-scoring. Ole Miss’ offense feels matchup-proof at this point thanks to QB Trinidad Chambliss. The Rebels play at a top-20 pace, and their explosiveness is elite, as they rank 2nd in plays of at least 10 yards, 4th in plays of at least 20 yards, and 1st in plays of at least 30 yards. Chambliss will have to evade pressure from Miami’s vaunted pass rush in order to generate plays down the field, but that’s something he’s done very well this season – as evidenced by his top-20 passer rating, top-15 big-time throw rate and top-6 turnover-worthy play rate when pressured. 

Miami has played in low-scoring games of late, holding each of its 6 opponents to 17 points or less following its loss at SMU. However, that is more a testament to its defense than its offense,  as the Hurricanes scored at least 24 points in 5 of those matchups. Given the fact that they are going up against an Ole Miss defense with some holes, I expect QB Carson Beck and the Hurricanes to generate points. For what it’s worth, the Rebels surrendered 24+ points to Georgia twice, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Florida, and their run defense has been questionable at times. In fact, the Rebels finished the regular season outside the top 50 in standard downs efficiency, 129th in PPA per rush and 94th in rushing success rate allowed. Just look at their recent results against opposing rushing attacks: Georgia RB Nate Frazier averaged 5.7 yards per carry against the Ole Miss stop-unit in the quarterfinals, while Tulane RB Jamauri McClure averaged 5.6 in the first round and Mississippi State averaged 6.1 as a team in Week 14. Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr. can exploit this weakness.

Miami’s slow pace of play is a concern when targeting this over, but Ole Miss plays lightning fast, which should provide plenty of possessions to surpass this number. Moreover, Miami should find enough chunk plays to put itself into multiple scoring situations, as Ole Miss is outside the top 50 in explosive play rate allowed. Will it be enough to cover the spread as a favorite? I’m not so sure, but I do expect both teams to reach the mid-20s and will take the over because of that. 

Miami vs Ole Miss pick: Over 51.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 53.

You can bet on our Miami vs Ole Miss pick at DraftKings Sportsbook, which has thousands of betting options available and a great new customer offer where you can get $300 in bonus bets instantly if your first $5 wager is a winner! Click here 👈🏼 to sign up for a DraftKings account now.

The 2nd round of the College Football Playoff is behind us, and there are now just 4 teams remaining in the pursuit of a National Championship. Back on New Year’s Day, the 5th-seeded Oregon Ducks defeated Texas Tech to advance to this semifinal round, while the top-seeded Indiana Hoosiers rolled through Alabama in impressive fashion just a few hours later. Which of these teams will come out on top in the Peach Bowl on Friday and advance to the National Championship game? It’s almost time to find out. 

You could convincingly make the case that these are the 2 best teams in the country at the moment, and while it’s hard to ignore what we’ve seen from the Hoosiers over their last few contests, the basic market fundamentals clearly point to Oregon as the side in this game at the current number. For starters, it’s clear that a wager on Indiana in this game is buying the Hoosiers at the peak of their market value, while the Ducks are still being priced like a lesser team than they were a few months ago, which I just don’t believe is the case. After all, Oregon was a 7-point favorite against Indiana at Autzen Stadium back on October 11, which would roughly make this a line move of over 8 points since the first meeting between these teams. While Indiana deserves to be priced as the best team in the field, I’ve certainly upgraded Oregon following its dominant showing against Texas Tech, a team that is significantly better than an Alabama team that essentially quit after Indiana took an early double-digit lead in the Rose Bowl.

There’s no doubt that the Ducks played their worst game of the season by some distance in that first meeting, and they still were tied midway through the 4th quarter. Now, Dan Lanning’s group appears to be playing its best football of the season on defense, and the offense can hone in on making the necessary schematic adjustments to fix what went wrong in the previous meeting. It certainly won’t be easy against Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers’ extremely balanced offense (2nd in success rate, 2nd in EPA per play, 3rd in points per drive) and the Indiana defense has also been a top-5 unit in the sport over the course of the season. However, given the fact that Oregon’s offense just had to face the best defensive front in the nation, I’m expecting a much better effort from the Ducks on the ground in this one, which was something they were able to do successfully for a decent chunk of the first meeting against Curt Cignetti’s defense.

Will Stein’s offense should also finally be getting Evan Stewart back for this game, which makes this the healthiest that Oregon’s deep group of pass-catchers (Dakorien Moore, Kenyon Sadiq, Malik Benson, Gary Bryant Jr., etc.) has been all season. With that in mind, as long as Dante Moore is able to play to his strengths and avoid making some of the mistakes he made in the first meeting, the Ducks should be able to grind out scoring drives and potentially even strike for some explosive plays downfield. Look for Oregon to empty the tank and pull out all the stops schematically on both sides of the ball in a game that could come down to the final possession.  

Oregon vs Indiana prediction: Oregon +4.5 (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5.

You can bet on our Oregon vs Indiana pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!

At first glance, I thought I was going to be targeting the under in this game, much like I did for both teams in their quarterfinal matchups. However, I’m actually more inclined to look at the over in this game now that the total has come down a bit from the opening number. While both defenses are among the best in the nation, these offenses should be able to implement some schematic adjustments from the first game and improve on their respective performances. While neither offense played all that well back in that October meeting, the game still finished with 50 total points, and that was with each side squandering a few scoring chances. Now, the Ducks will get to showcase their speed on a fast track against an Indiana defense that loves to play its safeties deep, giving the opponent plenty of room to move the ball with the short and intermediate passing game — a mainstay in Will Stein’s offense.

On the other side, the Hoosiers offense was able to generate consistent success on the ground in the previous matchup, and that should continue into this game given how well Indiana’s offense line has played all year. The Oregon secondary is excellent, but this is the best wide receiver duo the Ducks have played, so it’s reasonable to assume that they’ll give up a few big plays here and there as well. Let’s roll with the over now that we’re under a key number.

Oregon vs Indiana pick: Over 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook for the football season, we recommend checking out Fanatics Sportsbook. New users can get $250 in FanCash INSTANTLY when they make their first $50 wager! Join Fanatics Sportsbook, where you can bet on our Oregon vs Indiana predictions.