College Football Picks

The Georgia Southern Eagles head for the mountains to battle the Appalachian State Mountaineers at Kidd-Brewer Stadium in Boone, N.C. for a Sun Belt Conference game. The Eagles have struggled this season, allowing at least 24 points in 4 straight and 7 of 8 games. On the road, Georgia Southern has really had issues, going 0-4 SU/ATS, while losing each games by 10 or more points, with 3 of the losses by at least 25 points. That includes a 34-24 loss at Arkansas State last time out as a 1-point underdog. They’ve allowed at least 34 points in all 4 road games, too, averaging 34.5 PPG allowed in two Sun Belt road contests.

App State is coming off a disappointing 24-21 loss at Old Dominion last time out on Oct. 25, but it covered as a 13.5-point underdog, while going 3-1 ATS in the past four outings. The Mountaineers have managed a 2-1 record at home, while going 1-1 ATS in two games against FBS opponents. As a single-game favorite, the Mountaineers are 3-1 ATS this season. We’ll going against the series trends, as Georgia Southern is 5-1-1 ATS in the past 7 meetings. However, the Eagles defense is horrible, and the Mountaineers should get it done by at least seven points. App State has won the past couple of home meetings with Georgia Southern by at least 24 points in each of those outings.

Georgia Southern vs App State prediction: Appalachian State -6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -7.

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The UTSA Roadrunners and South Florida Bulls meet at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa in an American Conference battle on Thursday night. The Roadrunners picked up a surprising 48-26 win as a 5.5-point underdog against Tulane last time out last Thursday, cashing the Over (54.5) for a third straight game. The Over is 6-2 in eight games for UTSA, as it has managed 459.6 total yards, 203.7 rushing yards and 32.0 PPG, which allowing 459.0 total yards, 289.6 passing yards and 30.9 PPG. A lot of scoring, and a lack of defense, is a tremendous recipe for the Over.

For USF, it suffered a crushing 34-31 loss at Memphis on Oct. 25 as a ranked team, potentially having fumbled away any chance at a playoff spot along the way. The Bulls have been tremendous on offense, going for 31 or more points in five in a row, and at least 48 points in four of those outings. The defense has allowed 26 or more points in three of the past four games, too, with the total going high in five of the past six games. QB Byrum Brown and the Bulls should be able to rack up a ton of points against the very giving Roadrunners. Look for UTSA to get theirs, too, though. The number is rather scary being so high, but we should get into the 70’s in Tampa on a crisp, dry night.

UTSA vs USF pick: Over 68.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 70.

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The Northwestern Wildcats will need to be ready for a big test Friday night when they travel to California to take on the USC Trojans. Northwestern is 5-3 on the season and 3-2 in the Big Ten Conference. They lost their last game to the Nebraska Cornhuskers 28-21 in Lincoln, Nebraska. Quarterback Peyton Stone struggled in this game, only completing around 50% of his passes and throwing 2 interceptions. Northwestern showed fight on the road, coming back from a 21-6 2nd half deficit. They tied the game in the fourth quarter, but ended up losing the game late. The USC Trojans find themselves as the 19th-ranked team in the country after starting the season 6-2 and 4-1 in the Big Ten Conference. The Trojans defeated Nebraska in their previous game 21-17 on the road. The Trojans also had a 2nd half deficit, but USC was able to take home the win after trailing 14-6. Quarterback Jayden Maiava was only 9 of 23 passing and 1 interception, but the Trojans ran for 202 yards. A majority of those yards came from King Miller, who ran for 129 yards and 1 touchdown. 

There is little room for error for head coach Lincoln Riley and the USC Trojans if they want to make the college football playoff. With ranked Iowa and Oregon coming up next, the Trojans need to make sure they don’t overlook a Northwestern team that is coming off a bye week. Northwestern is a team that will not want to take a lot of chances. They will want to condense the game with their rushing attack, create short third-downs, and rely on Stone to make less than a handful of big throws throughout the game. Against Power Four competition, the Wildcats have not scored more than 22 points all season. With Northwestern still finding success this season, it goes to show the formula for their running game and solid defense has worked. USC has one of the best passing games in college football, averaging 302 yards per game. This number has them ranked 10th in the FBS in that category, but they will be tested in this game against a Northwestern defense that is ranked 14th against the pass. The Wildcats only allow on average 173 passing yards per game. It will be strength on strength when USC’s offense and Northwestern’s defense share the field. USC may very well win this game, but I believe the Wildcats, with an extra week to prepare, will be able to present some problems for the Trojans passing game. 

Northwestern vs USC prediction: Northwestern +14.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Saturday is a loaded college football slate, but probably nothing is more important than a clash between a pair of top-10 teams as the BYU Cougars face the Texas Tech Red Raiders. This is an 11am local kickoff, with College GameDay on campus to add to the energy. The Cougars are undefeated, overperforming expectations thus far, while the Red Raiders are a legitimate powerhouse by my estimation, but they already carry a loss. The loss came at Arizona State, while Tech was missing its QB and Arizona State still had theirs. Context matters in college football. I am all aboard with this Red Raider team. It is not that I think BYU is bad, but more that I think Texas Tech is up there with the best teams in the country. I don’t love that the spread has gotten as high as it has, but I will still take Texas Tech -10.

Let’s start with BYU. This is a team with a flashy freshman QB (who wears #47 and drives purists nuts), who can both run and throw well, but he also can be forced into mistakes. BYU is a strong team who can bully most teams in the trenches, and that is their style of play. They might be undefeated, but they have struggled on the road against Colorado and Arizona, and narrowly survived rival Utah at home, all of those as one-possession games. It feels like they are living on borrowed time.

The Red Raiders are not a team you can bully in the trenches. Their defense in particular is a bully themselves, and they have put the clamps on several better offenses already this year. Their lone loss came when Behren Morton was out, and I think this offense will put up points on BYU just like they have everyone else. The one concern with Tech is that they sometimes struggle to finish drives, settling for far too many FGs, which hurts our confidence in the cover. But this Red Raider team is the real deal, with the athletes to compete with anyone in the country. They are playing at home in a must-win situation with College GameDay in the front yard. This team will be amped, and I think they roll. Give me the Red Raiders to cover.

BYU vs Texas Tech Prediction: Texas Tech -10 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

I think it is far more likely that this game turns into a defensive trench battle than a classic Big 12 shootout. Sure, the Red Raiders have an electric offense, but we still need to keep in mind that BYU is a top 30 defense nationally in terms of total yards allowed. The Cougars have not faced an offense as fully armed as the Red Raiders, to be sure, but this is a good defense that can bring pressure in the passing game and can get you behind the chains in the running game. They can hang in there with the Red Raiders.

On the other side, I think the Texas Tech defense will have the better of this matchup. The Red Raiders have held 4 conference opponents to 17 or fewer points already, and they are going to force freshman QB Bear Bachmeier into some mistakes. Tech had trouble with Avery Johnson on the ground last week (the KSt QB ran for 88 yards and 2 touchdowns), and that is of some concern, but the Red Raiders have a top 10 defense and are playing in front of a rowdy, hostile home crowd, and that is going to be a huge problem for the Cougs. I have this game more in the 28-17 range.

BYU vs Texas Tech Prediction: Under 52.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Two teams that sit near the bottom of the Big 12 Conference will meet this Saturday when the Colorado Buffaloes take on the West Virginia Mountaineers. Both teams have an overall record of 3-6 and a conference record of 1-5. Colorado has lost four of their last five games. They were defeated 52-17 on their home field by the Arizona Wildcats last Saturday. The Buffaloes defense allowed big plays early and often against Arizona. They allowed Arizona’s quarterback, Noah Fifita to throw for 4 touchdowns before halftime. The Buffaloes played well below expectation, getting blown out as only 3.5-point underdogs. West Virginia was able snap a five-game losing streak with a 45-35 win over 22nd ranked Houston. The game was played in Houston, Texas, and the Mountaineers were able to win outright as 12.5-point underdogs. It was the third start that West Virginia turned to freshman quarterback Scotty Fox Jr. Fox threw for 157 yards and 1 touchdown, and he ran for another 65 yards and two touchdowns. Fox looked more confident than he has than in his previous starts, and West Virginia was able to outgain a talented Houston offense.

The Colorado Buffaloes have become frustrated with the play of quarterback Kaidon Salter, and they will look to turn to true freshman quarterback Julian Lewis this Saturday. Salter’s play decreased in the past two games, where he only threw for an average of 43 yards per game. Lewis did see playing time against Arizona. He was 9 of 17 for 121 yards and 1 touchdown. Most of that time did come in the second half when Colorado was already down by a couple of scores, so this Saturday will be Lewis’ first action during a meaningful period. In the battle of freshman quarterbacks, I’m leaning towards Fox Jr. Fox has shown a lot of growth even in his last 3 starts. He led the Mountaineers to 45 points against a solid Houston defense. Against Colorado’s defense, which ranks 113th in the FBS with an average of 426 yards per game allowed, Fox should be able to continue his upward trend. West Virginia has some impressive wins this season against Pittsburgh and Houston. They just now need to learn to be consistent. They have a good chance this Saturday by putting together back-to-back wins.

West Virginia -6.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

This one is rooted almost entirely in market perception. Mississippi State is the best covering team in the country at 8-1 ATS. Last week in Fayetteville, they were dead to rights. Arkansas — 3-6 on the year and laying 4.5 — led by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Yet somehow, inexplicably, Mississippi State mounted a late rally, not only covering but winning outright. That comeback result bleeds into this week and makes the Starkville Bulldogs look appealing again. And the market knows it — you’re still getting them at a touchdown plus the hook. That’s the trap.

As for Georgia, many called last week against Florida a “bad beat” after Gunner Stockton kneeled inside the one-yard line to end the game, costing spread bettors a likely cover. Whether you label it a bad beat or not, the fact remains it does not make Georgia look like an obvious play here, especially laying points on the road against a Mississippi State team that has been printing tickets all season.

But if there were a time and place to jump on Georgia against this ATS darling, this is it. People will peddle the “look-ahead spot” narrative with Texas coming to Athens next week, but Kirby Smart doesn’t coach look-ahead teams. Georgia will be laser-focused. Mississippi State is one win from clinching a bowl berth for the first time in years — but this is where that run hits resistance.

Lay the points with the Dawgs.

Georgia vs. Mississippi State prediction:  Dawgs -8 (-110) available at number posted.

This total ties directly into the side. If Penn State is going to hang around —  it will be on the back of its defense. The Nittany Lions simply don’t have the offensive consistency right now to trade punches in a track meet. The backup quarterback situation has been limiting, Nicholas Singleton hasn’t delivered the breakout campaign many expected, and the offensive rhythm just hasn’t materialized.

So, how does Penn State keep this one competitive? Slowing it down. Limiting possessions. Leaning on defense, field position, and physicality — the traditional Happy Valley blueprint. They don’t want a shootout. They can’t win a shootout. They know it, and the game plan reflects it.

Indiana, for its part, has a high-powered attack — but this Penn State defense is still a prideful unit and plays at another level at home. They will not roll over, even against one of the nation’s top offenses. If the Lions are going to cash and potentially shock the system while doing so — this game has to stay tight and gritty, not fast and flashy.

Low-scoring script. Defensive resistance. Fewer possessions. Correlated with the home dog. Under 49 is the play — and it matches exactly how Penn State wants this game to unfold.

Indiana vs. Penn State prediction: Under 49.0 (-110) available at number posted.

What can we say? Indiana has been boat-racing just about everyone they’ve seen this year — with the lone exception being Iowa. Many will argue the Hoosiers could be the best team in the country, and it’s hard to push back. They’ve been balanced, explosive, and punishing: dynamic offense, stingy defense, and an overall physicality that’s overwhelmed opponents. Indiana has been running teams over, make no mistake.

Penn State, meanwhile, has been a disappointment in market terms. The Nittany Lions have covered just once all season and are coming off another ATS loss at Ohio State. In that game, PSU hung tough — down only three at the half as an 18.5-point dog — before getting blanked 21-0 in the third and never recovering.

So why back Penn State here? Value. In the summer look-ahead line, the Nittany Lions were as high as -16.5 in some spots. Now they’re catching over two touchdowns— an over 30 point market flip once you factor preseason expectations vs. current perception. That’s a classic buy-low underdog number, and this time it’s in Happy Valley.

If there was ever a “right spot” for Penn State to rise up and turn its season narrative around, this is it. Don’t be shocked if the Nittany Lions don’t just cover, but flirt with the outright upset.

Indiana vs. Penn State prediction: Penn State +15 (-110) available at number posted.

Narrative matters in college football betting, and the James Madison storyline writes itself. Ask anyone paying attention and they’ll tell you the Dukes are quietly building a résumé worthy of representing the Group of Six in the College Football Playoff. They’re 7-1, and the lone blemish came at Louisville — a loss that looks more like a badge of honor given the Cardinals’ current playoff positioning. JMU is rolling, and the market has taken notice.

Marshall, on the other hand, is coming off a midweek disaster at Coastal Carolina. The Herd were a full touchdown favorite and even controlled that game early, yet turnovers and miscues flipped everything on its head. Not only did Marshall fail to cover — they lost outright, and in ugly fashion. That result soured the betting public quickly.

And that’s exactly where the opportunity lies. This is your classic buy-low, sell-high setup. JMU’s stock could not be hotter with a massive rivalry showdown vs. App State on deck, while Marshall looks damaged after a high-profile misstep. At home, catching nearly two touchdowns, this is a favorable number for a program that still has talent and pride.

JMU deserves respect, but situationally this is a tough ask. Marshall can shorten the game, absorb punches, and hang around. We’ll grab the points — and we wouldn’t be shocked if the Herd won outright.

James Madison vs. Marshall prediction: Marshall +13.5 (-110) available at number posted. Playable to +13.

From a situational perspective, this is about as good of a spot as you can find on the Week 11 slate — and I intend to take advantage of it. On one side, Boston College comes into this game in a fine run of form against the number following a pair of covers in back-to-back contests against Louisville and Notre Dame. The Eagles are in the midst of a very disappointing season, having only won a single game to this point, but this is still a well-coached unit that has battled the best teams on its schedule tooth and nail in recent weeks. Bill O’Brien should have his team prepared to play in what is one of the final home games of the season for Boston College.

Conversely, SMU is in a brutal letdown spot after knocking off Miami at home in what was clearly the biggest win of its season to this point. Now, head coach Rhett Lashlee’s side will have to travel all the way to the northeast for a bizarre matchup against a new conference foe in Boston College, a team they couldn’t possibly care all that much about, all while staring at a massive home game against Louisville on deck that could have massive implications in the ACC title picture. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Mustangs come out very flat in a spot in which they could still be a bit hungover from last week’s win season-altering victory against Miami that was a massive bounce-back performance following a loss to Wake Forest the week prior. With that in mind, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Boston College kept this game within one score and really put a scare into the visitors, so I’ll certainly take the points with the Eagles at home in a matchup that should be closer than what the market expects.

SMU vs Boston College prediction: Boston College +11.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 10.5

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The Southern Miss Golden Eagles are atop the Sun Belt West standings heading into a tough road matchup against an Arkansas State Red Wolves squad that has really turned things around on a 4-0 stretch. Despite the recent success, the defense continues to be a major concern for the Red Wolves. Arkansas State is surrendering over 405 yards per game, ranking 127th in defense success rate and 125th in points per quality drive. On the contrary, the Southern Miss offense has been quite consistent in 2025.

The Golden Eagles have a top-40 scoring offense averaging 33 points per game and have done an excellent job of taking care of the ball with the best turnover margin in the country (+12). Arkansas State on the other hand has a -2 turnover margin and has struggled with finishing drives this season, ranking 115th in points per quality drive. The Golden Eagles are strong in several areas that the Red Wolves struggle with; I’ll take the favorites to cover on the road.

Southern Miss -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable up to -5.5 (-110).

The Temple Owls head to West Point to take on the Army Black Knights in an interesting matchup of two run-first teams with inconsistent defensive play. Army ranks No. 1 in FBS for time of possession this season, which certainly helps keep the defense off the field. However, when the defense is on the field, the unit hasn’t been very efficient. Army ranks 129th in quality drive rate allowed and 111th in defensive success rate.

Army runs the ball 85.77% of plays — the highest mark in FBS — and tends to chew some clock when driving down field. While the offense is certainly capable of putting together scoring drives against a suspect Temple defense, the explosiveness isn’t there matching up against a Temple offense that is No. 1 in the country in points per quality drive. The Owls make their scoring opportunities count, and if they build an early lead Army could find itself forced out of its preferred scheme. 

Temple vs Army prediction: Temple +7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

The Maryland Terrapins are set to visit the Rutgers Scarlet Knights this Saturday for a Big Ten Conference game. Maryland has a record of 4-4, but a conference record of only 1-4. The Terrapins have lost their last four games, falling all the way back to a .500 record after starting the season a perfect 4-0. Their last loss was an embarrassing 55-10 loss to Indiana in College Park, Maryland. Maryland allowed second-ranked Indiana to produce 588 yards of offense and control the football for over 40 minutes. Maryland could not run the football in this game, only rushing for a total of 37 yards. Rutgers has also struggled in recent weeks. They have lost five of their last six games, and they have a 1-5 record in the Big Ten Conference. They lost their last game 35-13 against Illinois. Quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis threw for 253 yards and 1 touchdown, but it was not enough to overcome the Illinois passing game that accounted for 4 touchdowns.

With both teams on the edge of bowl eligibility, Saturday’s game will be important for both programs. The narrative around Maryland has completely changed after last week’s homecoming game beatdown against Indiana. Before last week, Maryland had lost three games, but they were all single score losses where Maryland could not hold on to a late lead. Saturday’s contest will be Maryland’s opportunity to right the ship against one of the worst defenses in college football. Rutgers defense has allowed on average 428 yards per game this season. They are ranked 121st in the FBS in that category. They also rank 101st in rushing defense, 117th in passing defense, and 115th in points allowed. Rutgers defense struggles to create turnovers as well, with only 4 interceptions this season. I see more opportunities for victory and improvement with Maryland. Maryland’s defense is one of the best in the FBS with a turnover margin of +7. They have proved to be a ‘ bend but no break defense’ allowing 22 points per game this season. Last week’s loss in front of their home crowd was demoralizing, but the Terrapins can bounce back against a struggling Rutgers.

Maryland -110 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Given the start of the college basketball season this week, this is a fitting matchup. However, the Blue Devils and the Huskies will meet on the gridiron on Saturday rather than the hardwood. Duke comes into this game off a massive win at Clemson 46-45, which revitalized its ACC Championship hopes following its disappointing effort at home against Georgia Tech. Meanwhile, coming off its 38-19 win at home over UAB last week, UConn is 6-3 this season – with all 3 of those losses coming in overtime. 

If you read my Week 11 opening lines article, you will know I’m already on UConn in this spot. While I don’t love that I didn’t get the best of the number, I do love that this is a random non-conference home game for UConn in which the Huskies are playing with house money having already secured bowl eligibility. They should be extremely motivated to beat yet another power conference opponent to prove their win at Boston College was no fluke, and they are equipped to do just that with one of the best college quarterbacks no one is talking about in Joe Fagnano.

How much does Duke actually care about this game? Sure, the Blue Devils want to win, but with 3 outright losses on their resume already, they are not in the mix for an at-large CFP bid. They’d have to win the ACC to reach the playoffs, which is exactly what their focus should be on. Sandwiched between a massive road win last week and a showdown with the ACC leader next week, I like UConn to keep this one close against Duke, who figures to be more worried about their 3 remaining conference games – in hopes of finding its way to the ACC Championship in Charlotte. If this one touches 10, I will add to my current position on UConn +8.5 from Monday morning, but if you aren’t invested already, I don’t mind jumping in at +9.5.

Duke vs UConn prediction: UConn Huskies +9.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +7. 

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It’s not the most important game in the Big 12 on Saturday, but this matchup between the Iowa State Cyclones and TCU Horned Frogs is one could decide if the latter makes the conference title game this season. And white Iowa State got off to a red-hot start, the Cyclones recent performance has been extremely concerning, along with a statistical profile that doesn’t exactly fit the billing of a top 40 team, which is how they’re rated in the betting market. Add in the fact that Iowa State is pretty banged-up, and I don’t exactly have much confidence in the Cyclones to keep this one within a score on the road. 

For starters, this is a pretty good situational spot for TCU, as Sonny Dykes’ team is coming off a much-needed bye week to rest and get a bit healthier following a difficult stretch of 7 consecutive games, most of which came in Big 12 play. Now, you’re getting one of the best offensive minds in the Big 12 in a must-win spot against a pretty beleaguered Iowa State team that has dropped 4 straight games following a 5-0 start to the season. Regression has clearly hit Matt Campbell’s team, particularly on defense, where the Cyclones are now sitting at 70th in success rate allowed and 81st in 3rd and 4th down success rate per CFB-Graphs. That doesn’t bode well against a TCU offense that is a top 20 unit in 3rd and 4th down success rate, quality drives created and points per drive. Josh Hoover is one of the best quarterbacks in the nation and he’s been plying mistake-free football over the last few weeks for the Horned Frogs. Hoover shouldn’t have to score 40 points to cover this number, especially with the TCU defense grading out very well against the run (13th in EPA per rush, 18th in rushing success rate allowed) and with Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht currently in the midst of his worst run of form of the season. Ultimately, I’ll lay the points with the better team at home in this Big 12 clash. 

Iowa State vs TCU prediction: TCU -5.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.5

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The Arizona Wildcats host the Kansas Jayhawks on Saturday afternoon. For both of these schools, it is basketball time, and football is not going to garner much attention this time of year. Both teams are in the muddled middle of the conference standings, both have 5 wins overall, and both need just one more win to be bowl eligible. That’s really the goal for both programs. The visiting Jayhawks snapped a 2-game losing streak by beating lowly Oklahoma State last week. Arizona likewise ended a 2-game skid when they dog-walked Colorado in Boulder last week, 52-17. I feel like the Wildcats will win this game, but I think my preferred play here is to back the offenses and play the game total over 56.

Both teams have good offenses, led by solid quarterbacks. For Kansas, it is a run-first attack when they can, while Arizona runs an up-tempo passing attack. Both teams play fast, which usually means more points. Don’t be surprised if the punters stay on the sidelines most of the time on 4^th downs either. The wildcard here is the Arizona defense. At this point in the season, the Arizona defense grades out 15^th in total yards allowed, and inside the top 10 against the pass. I am suspicious that that has a lot to do with the style of offenses they have faced, but nevertheless, this is a sneaky good defense. But I still think this is a game where someone hits 30. I’ll run with the over.

Kansas vs Arizona Prediction: Over 56 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Miami Hurricanes will prepare this Saturday for an ACC matchup when they take on the Syracuse Orange. Cracks are starting to show with Miami. The Hurricanes were a midseason favorite for college football analysts to predict to go all the way and win the College Football Championship. The Hurricanes have now fallen all the way to the 18th-ranked team in the country after losing two of their last three games. Miami lost their last game in overtime to the SMU Mustangs 26-20. Quarterback Carson Beck threw for 274 yards and two touchdowns, but Beck had a crucial interception in overtime that resulted in his team falling short. Syracuse will provide an opportunity for the Hurricanes to get back in the win column. The Orange are 3-6 this season, with a conference record of 1-5. After quarterback Steve Angeli went down with an injury, Syracuse has lost five games in a row, all to conference opponents, by an average of 21.4 points per game. Their last loss came on their home field 27-10 against North Carolina. Joseph Filardi was the quarterback for Syracuse, and he only completed 4 of 18 passes for 39 yards. 

With two conference losses accounted for on Miami’s record, Miami cannot afford another loss on their schedule. The Hurricanes were sloppy against SMU, committing 12 penalties and 2 turnovers. Outside of the sloppiness, Miami had more yards on offense, limited SMU to 23 rushing yards, and controlled time of possession with nearly 38 minutes. Three games ago, Miami lost 24-21 to Louisville. They came back next game and blew out Stanford 42-7 and covered a similar spread of 28.5. Miami’s defense stayed locked-in, only allowing 89 yards passing and forcing 2 interceptions. I expect a similar response against potentially a worse opponent in Syracuse. Syracuse is already looking ahead towards next season as head coach Fran Brown Jr. says he expects Steve Angeli to return under center next season. Saturday’s starting quarterback will be either Filardi or Rickie Collins, with neither having proved to be a formidable option. Miami has arguably the best defense in the ACC. Whichever quarterback is set to go against Miami will be in for a long day. 

Miami -28.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Following a mutual Week 10 bye, the undefeated Texas A&M Aggies head to Columbia, Missouri for a date with the Tigers. Prior to their week off, the Aggies decimated the LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge 49-25 to remain unbeaten, which resulted in Brian Kelly being sent packing. Meanwhile, Missouri lost at Vanderbilt despite outgaining the Commodores by more than 100 yards. To make matters worse, the Tigers lost starting QB Beau Pribula to an ankle injury, which will thrust true freshman Matt Zollers into the starting role against the #3 team in the country. 

I’m not going to overthink this one. While Zollers seems to have a strong arm and the upside to become a solid college quarterback, I have a hard time seeing it all pan out against this Texas A&M team. The Aggies have a mean pass rush that currently sits top-10 in both sacks and tackles for loss on the season as a whole, as well as 4th nationally in havoc generated outside of garbage time since Week 6. Moreover, they are sound against the run, having allowed just 1 SEC team to average more than 3.5 yards per rush attempt against them. 

On the other side of the ball, Texas A&M continues to maintain its explosive profile. The Aggies gained 5.6 yards per rush and 9.6 yards per pass against LSU last week, and they now sit top-20 in plays of at least 20 yards this season. Missouri has succeeded at taking away chunk plays thus far, but the Aggies feel matchup-proof at this point – specifically their wide receivers Mario Craver and KC Concepcion. For what it’s worth, Craver and Concepcion are 2 of the 3 highest-graded receivers in the SEC per PFF. 

If Pribula were healthy, this spread would probably be around 3 points in favor of Texas A&M. However, without an experienced quarterback, the line currently sits around a touchdown. If you believe Zollers is underrated and equipped to handle the challenges presented by Texas A&M in this matchup, then you may see a bit of value in Missouri – but I have no reason to doubt Mike Eklo, Marcel Reed and the Aggies in this spot. 

Texas A&M vs Missouri prediction: Texas A&M Aggies -7 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to -110 odds.

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This total feels a bit low considering Texas A&M has surpassed 30 points in all but 1 game this year. In fact, the Aggies have scored at least 40 points in every road game. They are 11th nationally in scoring, averaging 37.8 points per game, while sitting 19th in total offense at nearly 460 yards per game. However, when you dig deeper, you will see that Missouri excels at suppressing scoring and limiting big plays, so the total makes sense – especially when you add in the fact that Missouri will have a true freshman quarterback leading the offense in this one.

Texas A&M hasn’t seen many elite defenses this year. You could argue Auburn is the only above-average defense the Aggies have played to this point, and that was the only game they were held under 30 points – though they suffered from 2 missed field goals and a near-red-zone interception in the 2nd half of that game. Missouri offers a similar defensive intensity that Auburn does, as the Tigers held Alabama to 27 points and Vanderbilt to 17 points over the course of the last 3 games. 

The tempo of this game may be slower than expected. Texas A&M currently sits 108th in seconds per play, and the Aggies have started to play more deliberately over their last 3 games. Meanwhile, the Tigers are 72nd in seconds per play and will likely play a bit slower with a true freshman quarterback under center. All things considered, while I think Missouri will struggle to score enough to cover, the Tigers should have the ability to limit Texas A&M’s scoring just enough to keep this game under the total.

Texas A&M vs Missouri prediction: Under 48.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to 48.

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The Auburn Tigers were held to just 3 points last week at home against a 3-5 Kentucky team that surrendered 56 points to Tennessee in Lexington the week prior. Subsequently, Hugh Freeze lost his job, so now defensive coordinator DJ Durkin is the interim head coach while offensive coordinator Derrick Nix will handle the playcalling duties when the Tigers have the ball. Like Auburn, Vanderbilt comes into this game off a loss. However, the Commodores showed some fight last week when they battled back from a 3+ score deficit in Austin to only end up losing by 3. A College Football Playoff berth is still very much in the cards for Vanderbilt as long as it wins out, including at Tennessee in the final week of the season. 

Durkin and the Tigers have their work cut out for them in Nashville on Saturday. The Tigers are obviously flawed on the offensive end, and the coaching changes aren’t necessarily going to help that. Their best offensive attribute is their rushing attack, which just so happens to be the strength of Vanderbilt’s defense – ranking 14th in PPA per rush allowed outside of garbage time since Week 6 and 17th in rushing yards per game allowed throughout the season. 

On the other side of the field, Auburn is actually very sound defensively. However, if the Tigers had one defensive deficiency, it would be against the pass. They are outside the top 75 in passing yards allowed per game and outside the top 80 in yards per pass attempt on the season as a whole, while sitting outside the top 50 in passing downs PPA and PPA per pass since the beginning of October. That figures to be an issue against Vanderbilt, who loves to operate through the air with QB Diego Pavia – who is 2nd in the SEC in big-time throws (top-20 nationally).

The ‘Dores have been very good at home this year no matter the gamestyle, winning convincingly and even winning games they arguably should have lost. Each of their home wins has been by at least 7 points, and I’m not sure why that would change against this Auburn team – which might be looking ahead to next season sooner rather than later. With a significant quarterback advantage, as well as a stark motivational edge, it’s Vanderbilt or nothing for me in this one. 

Auburn vs Vanderbilt prediction: Vanderbilt Commodores -6.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -7. 

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A pretty under the radar game in the Group of 5 on Saturday comes in the Mountain West, where the Air Force Falcons will travel to Northern California to take on the San Jose State Spartans. This is a game that is fairly crucial within the Mountain West, as San Jose State is looking to inset itself into the title game picture now that Boise State has a loss in league play and could be missing its starting quarterback for an extended period of time. And while this line has moved a bit since the open, I’m still inclined to lay the points with the favorite.

The Spartans were a team that I was pretty high on coming into the season, and while things didn’t go well for San Jose State in September thanks to a couple of losses to Central Michigan and Stanford by a combined 3 points, this is now a team that’s on the rise and one that I’m looking to back over the final month of this campaign. For starters, the vast majority of San Jose State’s losses have come by one score, with the Spartans actually having held a lead in the second half of all but one contest this season. The Spartans offense struggled mightily in the early going, but this is a unit that has been surging of late, with San Jose State racking up a combined 133 points over its last 4 games. This includes a pair of wins over New Mexico and Hawaii, a couple of sides that are clearly among the top 5 or 6 teams in the Mountain West. The task for Walker Eget and company should get easier on Saturday against an Air Force defense that is among the worst in football (130th in success rate allowed and 136th in EPA per play). On the other side of the ball, the Falcons should score some points on the Spartans defense (102nd in success rate allowed), but I don’t trust that they’ll be able to get enough stops to pull off an upset on the road in this one.

Air Force vs San Jose State prediction: San Jose State -4.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Florida State looked like a team reimagined in a dominant 42-7 win over Wake Forest after a much-needed bye week. Now the Seminoles head to Death Valley to face a Clemson program that has gone off the rails in 2025. The Tigers have been inconsistent on both sides of the ball all season and have really struggled to get a consistent ground game going in particular. Clemson ranks 102nd in EPA/rush which is an area the Florida State defense has been stronger in, ranking top-35 in both EPA/rush and success rate against the run. 

While the Seminoles’ secondary has been an issue, the offense ranks first in FBS in yards per game (510.5) with some solid underlying numbers. Behind dual-threat QB Thomas Castellanos, Florida State ranks top-20 in several key metrics such as net points per drive, quality drive rate and points per quality drive. The Clemson defense has surrendered 80 points and 868 yards over the last two weeks and I don’t have much faith in the Tigers to turn things around in this matchup. I’ll take the Seminoles on the road.

Florida State vs Clemson prediction: Florida State +2,5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons face the Virginia Cavaliers on Saturday night in Charlottesville. One of the pressing questions of the night is how Virginia will do as frontrunners. The Cavs sit atop the ACC standings as the only remaining unbeaten team in conference play, and they are the highest ranked ACC team in the initial playoff rankings. They have done well this season as the hunter, especially when they upended Florida State in an overtime thriller. Now, they will get everyone’s best shot. Still, I think there is quite a bit of separation between Virginia and Wake Forest, and I will back Virginia as long as it stays under a touchdown.

If you do not yet know about Virginia, they run an aggressive passing attack led by transfer QB Chandler Morris, who came over from one of the most prolific passing attacks in the country in North Texas. They force the defense to spread out, which also provides opportunity to run underneath. Wake is a solid defensive unit, and they shut down the likes of SMU just a couple weeks ago, but I really think that was their peak. They were blasted by Florida State last week, and they shouldn’t be sneaking up on anyone the rest of the way. I look for the Cavaliers to hold serve and cover by the touchdown behind a strong offensive attack. Wake just does not have the offensive firepower to keep pace in this kind of matchup.

Wake Forest vs Virginia Prediction: Virginia -6.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Saturday night brings us an SEC clash between two squads that would just as soon get this season over with, as the Kentucky Wildcats host the Florida Gators. Kentucky grabbed a conference win last week at Auburn, 10-3, a game that resulted in the firing of the Auburn coach. Speaking of which, Florida has also fired their coach, and they are only barely above the lowly Wildcats in the conference standings. So, as both schools would say right now, it is basketball season. As for football, we have a night game that will be in the low 50s at kickoff, and the score may not reach the temperature, if you know what I mean. I think the best play in this game is the game total under 43.5.

Both teams are far better on defense than on offense, and that should lead to an ugly, low-scoring game that is a classic battle of field position. The Kentucky defense just held Auburn to 3 points on the road, and they held Texas to 16 points a couple weeks ago. They are getting back their top corner, and Florida is missing a couple of its top pass catchers. On the other side of the ball, Kentucky is just bad on offense by any measure. Florida is a respectable defense, especially against the run, and Kentucky isn’t much of a threat to throw. This looks like a 20-13 kind of game with a lot of stalled drives and punting.

Florida vs Kentucky Prediction: Under 43.5 (-110) available at the time of publication. Playable at that number.

It’s been a dramatic couple of weeks for LSU. Prior to their bye week, the Tigers lost for a 3rd time in 4 outings. Their most recent loss was the ugliest of them all, not only on the field, but on the sideline thanks to former head coach Brian Kelly’s antics. With a week to recoup and re-focus, the Tigers will likely put forth a very motivated effort against one of their rivals in Alabama on Saturday, but how much will that matter? 

Unlike we’ve seen in recent years, LSU has struggled on both sides of the ball. The Tigers are outside the top 80 in scoring and outside the top 90 in total offense, and while their defensive metrics are better on the season as a whole, their worst performances of the year were against Vanderbilt and Texas A&M – their 2 most recent opponents.

If the rumors are true about how toxic LSU was under Kelly’s watch, then we can probably expect LSU to look better this week than it has at any other point this season – maybe outside of Week 1. However, like I hinted at earlier, is that actually going to matter much on the field? LSU’s primary issues on the offensive end are a poor rushing attack and a sub-optimal offensive line. Will those magically improve in Kelly’s absence? I doubt it, but I suppose it’s possible. However, if they don’t, a lot of responsibility is going to fall on the arm of QB Garrett Nussmeier, which is not what the Tigers want. Alabama’s defensive strength is in its secondary, as the Tide currently sit top-12 in passing yards allowed per game, top-15 in passing touchdowns allowed, and top-20 in yards per pass attempt this season. More recently, ‘Bama ranks 7th in PPA per pass allowed since Week 6, which includes games against Tennessee, Missouri with a healthy Beau Pribula, and Vanderbilt.

On the defensive side, LSU’s play-to-play efficiency has dropped off precipitously over the last 5 weeks. The Tigers are 98th in points allowed per quality drive and 108th in PPA per play allowed in that time, and they haven’t applied much pressure to opposing quarterbacks – sitting 107th in havoc generated by their front 7 since the beginning of October. That has been a season-long issue though, as the Tigers are outside the top 60 in sacks and outside the top 100 in tackles for loss – which is music to Alabama QB Ty Simpson’s ears. He should have all day to throw behind an above-average offensive line. 

Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer has been excellent following bye weeks during his tenure in Tuscaloosa. The Tide are 3-0 SU and ATS after being idle under his watch, including 2 wins over Georgia and last year’s convincing 41-13 win at LSU. That game was never really in question. This time around, I expect the Tigers to put up a strong fight early before the Tide pull away late and win yet another home game by double digits.

LSU vs Alabama prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide -10 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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With Kalen DeBoer at the helm, Alabama has been known as a high-octane offense that can score in bunches. As such, it’s natural to gravitate to an over in this matchup. However, I’m expecting this to be a lower-scoring game than oddsmakers suggest given the current total of 50. 

Neither of these teams play at a pace that is conducive to an over. In fact, LSU and Alabama are both outside the top 105 in seconds per play against FBS opponents, which is very favorable for under bettors. Moreover, I don’t think the firing of Brian Kelly is going to magically make this offense more efficient. LSU hasn’t scored points on a consistent basis all year, and the Tigers still are expected to have an ineffective run game with a poor offensive line despite the coaching change. That will play right into Alabama’s strength defensively, as the Tide are strongest against the pass. Not to mention, the Tigers have scored a touchdown on fewer than 60% of their red zone trips.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see an offensive explosion from the Tide at home against LSU, but I’m not banking on it. For what it’s worth, unders are 4-1 this season in Alabama’s conference games, and that’s after finishing last season on a 5-0 run to the under. Look for the low-scoring trend to continue in this one thanks to LSU’s relative ineptitude offensively.

LSU vs Alabama prediction: Under 50 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 49.

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Notre Dame certainly has the firepower to put points on the board, and while Navy prefers a slower, methodical approach offensively, this is a rivalry game — and rivalry games tend to produce surprises. Yes, the Irish are a heavy favorite and the market is already leaning toward Navy at +26.5, but before we go further, let’s ask the question: is it inconceivable for Notre Dame to win this by four touchdowns or more? Absolutely not. Will Navy score? Odds are yes. That starts to point us toward the Over automatically.

Let’s also not ignore the numbers. Navy averages 35 points per game. Even if Notre Dame’s defense — improved as the season has progressed — holds them to, say, 21 points, if the Irish cover the spread, they’ll likely need to push close to 50. We trust that they will and that gets us well past this total.

Navy has given up 31 or more points in four straight games. North Texas hung 31 last week. That’s not exactly vintage Navy defense. Meanwhile, Notre Dame puts up 38 points per game and boasts one of the more punishing rushing attacks in the country. Against this Navy defense, there is every expectation they’ll move the ball consistently and finish drives.

Even if the Irish run away with it, Navy will play with pride and should find the end zone a couple of times. If it’s competitive, we score. If Notre Dame rolls, we score bigger. Either way, there are multiple paths to this number clearing.

Navy vs. Notre Dame prediction: Over 56.5 (-110) available at number posted. Playable to Over 57.

When you have a 7–1 Navy team that was flirting with a ranking and even creeping into AAC title and dark-horse CFP conversations, your first instinct is to grab the points. After all, seeing a one-loss team catching nearly four touchdowns feels like a gift. That makes Navy look too easy here — and that’s exactly the point. This number wasn’t dropped by accident.

Yes, Navy brings a solid résumé and a strong record, but they’re facing one of the most public brands in college football: Notre Dame. And while the Midshipmen are 2-6 ATS and the Irish are only slightly better at 3-4-1 ATS, context matters. Last week, Notre Dame didn’t exactly inspire confidence either, needing the fourth quarter to pull away from a one-win Boston College team in a 25–10 game. That result alone invites the market to grab Navy with both hands.

But this series history matters, and Notre Dame has owned this matchup. The Irish are the more physical team, the deeper roster, and the one far more capable of landing long scoring drives and eventually breaking the will of an opponent over four quarters. Navy may fight early, but over time this turns into a grind-down, wear-you-out game — and Notre Dame is built for that.

Navy looks tempting. That’s the trap. Notre Dame handles business and sends the Midshipmen home humbled. Lay the points with the Irish.

Navy vs. Notre Dame prediction: Notre Dame -26.5 (-110) available at number posted. Playable to -27.

We’ve seen this script already. Earlier this season, Colorado State found themselves in a similar price range against Fresno State under the primetime lights. As a 5.5-point dog, the Rams didn’t just cover — they won outright by multiple possessions. That remains their most recent victory, and yes, they’re only 2–6 with just one win over an FBS foe. They were shut out 28–0 at Wyoming in their last outing. All of that is precisely why they’re priced the way they are — and precisely why they’re dangerous here.

UNLV started hot at 6–0, but that shine has dimmed quickly after consecutive losses. They were blown out by Boise State, then came home and dropped a crushing one to New Mexico. That second loss may have punctured the Rebels’ CFP dreams and sent their momentum rolling downhill.

Lets also look a little closer at their body of work: UNLV edged Air Force late by three, trailed late at Miami (OH) and won by three in overtime, beat UCLA at the perfect time by a touchdown, and almost lost to FCS Idaho State to open the year had it not been for a fourth quarter rally. This has been a team living on the edge, escaping as much as controlling.

Now they’re laying a short number on the road against a Rams team sitting quietly in ambush in Fort Collins. We’re not bothering with the points. Take Colorado State outright.

UNLV vs. Colorado State prediction: Colorado State +170 (Money Line) available at number posted.