College Football Picks

Bowl games are decided less by talent and more by intent, and this matchup raises real questions about South Florida’s mindset. The Bulls entered November with legitimate College Football Playoff buzz, but that  momentum has since vanished quickly. Now, after head coach Alex Golesh departed for Auburn, USF finds itself in an early bowl game against a team that most would expect them to overpower just weeks ago. That’s the trap.

Old Dominion, however, views this game through a completely different lens. For the Monarchs, this isn’t a consolation prize — it’s an opportunity. A win here would mark one of the most significant achievements in program history, potentially delivering their second 10-win season since transitioning to Division I and their first in nearly a decade. Beating a team that once flirted with the top ten would validate the entire season. South Florida’s profile makes it dangerous from a betting perspective. They’ve been one of the most profitable teams in the country, and that success inflates perception. The market still treats them as a trustworthy favorite, but circumstances matter. Coaching turnover, postseason disappointment, and unclear motivation are all red flags in bowl settings. Said dynamic often decides these games. With urgency on one sideline and uncertainty on the other, we’ll back the team playing for meaning. ODU outright.

Old Dominion vs South Florida prediction: Old Dominion ML (+140) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

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This is Delaware’s first-ever bowl appearance as an FBS program, and instinctively, the market wants to fade the Blue Hens. Louisiana-Lafayette is the familiar name here — a team that seems to show up in bowl season every year — while Delaware is stepping into uncharted territory. That perception alone is what creates the value with Delaware. Strip away the helmets and history, and this game profiles as far closer to a coin flip than the price suggests. If Louisiana weren’t viewed as a bowl-season staple and Delaware weren’t labeled the newcomer, it’s hard to argue the Blue Hens would be catching plus money here. In fact, the opening line told a much truer story. The Cajuns opened laying less than a field goal, which is the market’s way of saying Delaware is very much live.

This isn’t a talent mismatch. Delaware has already proven it belongs at this level, competing immediately in its first FBS season and earning a bowl berth on merit, not charity. Motivation also leans heavily toward the Hens. This is a historic opportunity — a chance to punctuate their debut season with a statement win. When a game is effectively 50/50, the correct play is simple: take the plus price. And we have to like that position – Delaware isn’t just happy to be here. They’re positioned to finish the job. Hens outright.

UL Lafayette vs Delaware prediction: Delaware ML (+130) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

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This bowl matchup is another being framed as a “been here before vs. first-timer” narrative, and that’s exactly why Missouri State is being undervalued. Arkansas State isn’t some seasoned bowl power — they’re simply the team the market feels more comfortable backing. Comfort does not equal value. Missouri State enters at 7–5 and profiles as a quietly capable team that lives in competitive margins. Outside of blowout losses to USC and SMU — games that tell us nothing — the Bears were in every meaningful contest they played. They lost to Conference USA champion Kennesaw State by a touchdown, fell to Western Kentucky by five, and won four games by a single possession finding ways to win. This team is battle-tested.

Arkansas State lives in the same chaos, but with less margin for error. The Red Wolves also lost four one-score games, but three of their wins came by a single point. Flip one bounce in any of those, and they’re watching this bowl from home. Two of these results were outright upsets in the double-digit underdog range. Basically, the Wolves were off the radar and eked out stunning upsets that could have easily gone the other way. So why is Arkansas State favored? Because they are the mainstay FBS side and Missouri State is the new kid on teh block. But that alone doesn’t justify it. We are not entirely sold that the Red Wolves should even be favored. But hey, it gets us as the Bears at even money. Missouri State belongs here and they’ll prove it. State for the W.

Missouri State vs Arkansas State prediction: Missouri State +100 (Money Line) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

Bowl season will continue on Friday when the Conference USA champions in the Kennesaw State Owls meet the MAC champions in the Western Michigan Broncos at the Myrtle Beach Bowl at 11:00 am ET on ESPN. Kennesaw State finished the year 10-3 including its conference title, winning 3 straight and 10 of 11 coming into this game. Meanwhile, Western Michigan has won 5 straight and 9 of 10 ahead of this matchup in Conway, South Carolina. Both teams are expected to be near full strength as far as injuries and opt-outs go, which is nice to see. 

This game is likely to come down to who runs the ball more efficiently and turns the ball over less, and both of those traits skew more towards Western Michigan than they do Kennesaw in this matchup. Both teams have a top-40 rush rate and are similarly efficient with the ball on the ground, but the Owls are much, much worse defensively on the ground than the Broncos. In fact, Kennesaw State has surrendered at least 191 rush yards in 4 straight games, including Liberty’s 291-yard performance. Surpassing 200 rushing yards is normal for WMU, who just ran for 286 in the MAC title game. 

When it comes to turnovers, the Broncos average fewer than 1 giveaway per game – spearheaded by QB Broc Lowry. He’s no game-breaking passer, but he doesn’t hinder the offense, either. Lowry has thrown just 2 interceptions with an impressive 2 turnover worthy plays, which is all he really needs to do to keep drives alive with this efficient rushing attack. KSU QB Amari Odom puts the ball in harm’s way more often than Lowry, as shown by his 13 turnover-worthy plays – 9 of which came in games away from home. Give me the better rushing attack and offense that’s less likely to make mistakes.

Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan prediction: Western Michigan Broncos -3.5 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to -4.  

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The Gasparilla Bowl comes to us from Tampa, Florida, and it features the Memphis Tigers vs the NC State Wolfpack. The Wolfpack had a hot close to the season, winning 3 of their final 4 games to get themselves bowl eligible. Memphis, on the other hand, closed the season on a 3-game losing skid after briefly entering the Group of 5 playoff talk. Since then, Memphis head coach Ryan Silverfield has left town for the Arkansas job also. So we might think this is a spot that favors NC State. Nevertheless, I think this is too many points, and I will take Memphis to cover.

It is always risky taking the team whose coach has left, but most of the players seem to be in place, and a good number of them would like to put down some good tape for the incoming coaching staff. On the NC State side, there are a handful of potential opt-outs, but most of the core players seem poised to suit up. My issue in this game is the NC State defense. This unit ranks 115 out of 134 in total defense, and we simply cannot trust them to get stops. Memphis has enough offensive firepower to score, and this game should just be trading scores back and forth all night. I like this one to stay close, and don’t be surprised if Memphis is right there the whole way. I’ll take the points with the Tigers.

Memphis vs NC State Prediction: Memphis +4.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The 2025 College Football Playoff gets underway on Friday night with an SEC rematch between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Oklahoma Sooners from Norman. These teams met during the season when the Sooners notably beat the Tide in Tuscaloosa 23-21 despite being outgained 406-212 and converting just 3 of 13 third downs. Alabama’s 3 turnovers were the story, and Alabama’s blocked 36-yard field goal before halftime came into play, too. 

Alabama has not looked the part of late, ever since the loss to Oklahoma. The Tide took care of their business against FCS Eastern Illinois, but they almost squandered their CFP hopes in Auburn, being outgained by the Tigers 411-280 and converting just 4 of 17 third downs. The Tide followed that near loss up with an embarrassing showing in the SEC Championship against Georgia, a game in which they gained just 209 yards and were dealing with injuries to multiple key players. 

Meanwhile, Oklahoma is surging. Winners of 4 in a row and 5 of 6 since their loss to rival Texas, the Sooners enter this playoff game on home soil in better form, but there are still questions about the upside of this offense. The Sooners are 120th in PPA per play and 126th in success rate outside of garbage time since Week 9, which doesn’t instill much confidence in a game of this magnitude. 

This matchup could go either way, but I’m going to lean with Alabama to exact revenge on the Sooners simply because I can’t trust Oklahoma to do its part offensively. The Tide were already able to move the ball on this defense just a few weeks ago, and even with the venue change, I don’t expect the Tide to turn the ball over 3 times again. For what it’s worth, the Sooners average fewer than 1 takeaway per home game this year. 

Alabama vs Oklahoma prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide -1 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -2.

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This game figures to be anchored by what are a couple of tenacious defenses. Since Week 9, both Alabama and Oklahoma are top-30 in PPA per play, success rate and points per opportunity allowed, and neither offense has been inspiring enough to crack those defensive efficiency numbers. The Sooners are outside the top 120 in both PPA per play and success rate since the end of October, and they’ve scored just 2.72 points per trip across the opposing 40-yard line in that span – good for just 115th. Alabama hasn’t been much better, as the Tide are 88th in PPA per play and 77th in success rate since Week 9 – though they have been a bit more efficient in scoring opportunities. 

Given the similar defensive strengths and offensive shortcomings to end the season, I’m expecting a low-scoring, smashmouth football game in Norman this Friday. When these teams met in Tuscaloosa, only 44 points were scored, but 7 of those points came from an Oklahoma pick-6 and Alabama gifted another 10 points to the Sooners by way of 2 fumbles close to the red zone. I don’t see that happening again here. For what it’s worth, unders are 10-2 in Oklahoma games and 6-1 in its home games, while they are 3-1 in Alabama’s road SEC games. 

Alabama vs. Oklahoma prediction: Under 41 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 40.

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Kicking off Saturday’s College Football Playoff action at noon ET is one of the more exciting matchups of the first round between the Miami Hurricanes and the Texas A&M Aggies. Coincidentally, both of these teams beat Notre Dame early in the year, which ultimately is the reason why the Fighting Irish were left out. Miami finished the season 10-2 SU and 7-5 ATS while Texas A&M is 11-1 SU and 5-7 ATS, but it’s worth mentioning that both teams were often double-digit favorites. In games with a spread of 7 points or less, Texas A&M is 4-2 ATS while Miami is 3-0. The only time Miami was listed as an underdog was in its Week 1 win over Notre Dame. The Hurricanes closed around +3 in that game, which is about where they sit right now ahead of their playoff road trip to College Station.

Texas A&M has an impressive resume from a win/loss perspective, but when you dig deeper into what the Aggies have done this year, you’ll see that they didn’t play very many of the top SEC teams. Given the home-field advantage, the Aggies are rightful favorites, but it feels like a couple too many points – especially when considering the turnover issues the Aggies have displayed lately. They finished the regular season outside the top 100 in turnover rate, and they average 2.3 giveaways per game over their last 3 – which ranks near the bottom of the FBS over that stretch of games. In comparison, Miami is top-25 in turnover margin this year and averages just 0.7 giveaways per game over its last 3. Taking care of the ball will be crucial in a matchup between 2 top-10 defenses in terms of havoc generated outside of garbage time this year, as both stop-units rank top-25 in sacks and tackles for loss this year. Because of that, I feel more confident in Carson Beck in this spot considering he has half the amount of turnover-worthy plays as Marcel Reed. In fact, Reed has 11 turnover-worthy plays since Week 9 alone.

Reed can negate some of his turnover woes with his ability to escape from the pocket in the face of pressure and make defenses pay with his athleticism as a runner, but Miami has been especially good against mobile quarterbacks this year. In fact, FSU’s Tommy Castellanos was the only mobile quarterback that did damage against Miami’s defense, and most of that rushing production came in the 4th quarter when the game was all but decided. 

Not only has Miami been better in the turnover department, but the Hurricanes also have one of the most efficient red-zone offenses in the country. They put points on the board on over 92% of red-zone trips, and they find the end zone over 71% of the time – which puts them top-25 in both categories. Meanwhile, the Aggies are 76th in red-zone scoring and 43rd in red-zone touchdown rate. Miami should have a solid edge here, especially considering Texas A&M’s defense is 131st in red-zone scoring while allowing opponents to put points on the board on close to 94% of red-zone trips. 

This should be an excellent battle between a couple of teams that are strong on both sides. Despite having a preseason future on the Aggies, I prefer to take the points with the Hurricanes in this matchup given their advantages when it comes to turnovers and red-zone efficiency, in addition to their ability to limit mobile quarterbacks. For what it’s worth, my projections have Texas A&M around a 2-point favorite.

Miami vs Texas A&M prediction: Miami Hurricanes +3.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +3.

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I expect this game to be a brawl that’s spearheaded by the defenses more than the offenses of each team. Miami and Texas A&M limit opponents to fewer than 22 points per game while sitting top-20 in total defense and opposing success rate over the course of the whole season. Moreover, the Hurricanes and the Aggies are top-12 in opposing third down conversion rate and above average in standard downs PPA allowed, so it’s difficult to see too many methodical scoring drives in this one. Offensively, these teams operate at a snail’s pace relative to the rest of the FBS landscape, as Texas A&M is 110th in seconds per play while Miami sits 129th. Combined with the effectiveness of both defenses, this doesn’t bode well for points. 

With an over record of 8-4, Texas A&M’s games often included ample scoring, but the under has cashed in 4 of the last 5 Texas A&M games with a total of at least 51 points. Meanwhile, Miami’s games yielded fewer points, as the under was 7-5 in games involving the Hurricanes. Furthermore, unders are 4-1 in Miami’s games with a total of 51 or higher. Look for this one to stay low.

Miami vs Texas A&M prediction: Under 51.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 51. 

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