College Football Picks

Western Michigan has been the hottest team in the MAC, winning 8 of 9 and cashing spreads at a 6-2-1 clip. That streak has created a massive wave of market confidence, and bettors continue piling onto the Broncos. But the line tells a different story: despite all that momentum, WMU is laying less than a field goal in the MAC title game. That’s the first indicator the market doesn’t fully trust them in this one.

Miami (OH) comes in off dominant wins over Ball State and Buffalo, but what happened before those results is pivotal. The RedHawks suffered a blowout loss against Toledo and a loss at Ohio, where the market was backing them in a revenge spot. From a distance, Miami looks like a team that can’t grapple with any decent opposition that the MAC has to offer. That makes WMU laying less than a field goal appealing. And then there is what really matters: last year’s embarrassment in this exact championship spot. The RedHawks were routed, and the market remembers that — but this is their chance to correct that. Western Michigan is priced at its ceiling, while Miami is undervalued. This is the chance to move in hard on the RedHawks. I’m backing them to win the MAC.

Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan prediction: Miami (OH) ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Amid all of the conference realignment and transfer portal chaos, the SEC Championship consists of a matchup that college football fans know all too well. On Saturday, the Georgia Bulldogs and the Alabama Crimson Tide will battle for a conference championship at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, where the Bulldogs just played last week against Georgia Tech. As it stands, no matter who wins this game, Alabama and Georgia will have accounted for 11 of the last 12 SEC champions, and this will be the 4th time these two programs have met for a conference title in that span. 

The last time Alabama met Georgia in this spot, the Tide knocked off the #1 Bulldogs, which ultimately put the Tide into the then-4-team College Football Playoff and booted the ‘Dawgs out. Since then, the Tide and the ‘Dawgs have met twice in a regular season setting, both of which resulted in Alabama wins under Kalen DeBoer. As you probably know, Kirby Smart is just 1-7 SU against Alabama since he took over as the head coach in Athens.

I picked Alabama to win the SEC Championship (and the National Championship) back before the season started, and I have no reason to jump off the boat now – even with the Tide putting me through the ringer seemingly every week. When Alabama went into Athens and snapped Georgia’s 33-game, nearly 6-year home winning streak back in September, the Bulldogs were laying 2.5 points. Fast forward to this upcoming matchup, and you will see Georgia is favored by that same margin. Well, on the surface it looks the same, but being favored by 2.5 points on a neutral would mean oddsmakers have Georgia around a 5.5-point favorite – give or take a half-point or so – if this game was played in Athens this weekend. I simply disagree with that, as I have this game much closer to a pick ‘em on a neutral. 

There’s not much to pick apart with these teams that you don’t already know. Simply put, these are two of the best teams in college football on both sides of the line of scrimmage. By the numbers, Georgia has been more efficient offensively over the last month and some change, but the Bulldogs have played a worse collection of defenses in that span compared to the Tide. However, on the opposite side of the ball and against a similarly mediocre collection of offenses, Alabama has the better efficiency metrics of late. For reference, the Tide are top-5 in PPA per play and points allowed per quality drive since Week 10, which includes top-15 marks on standard downs and passing downs, as well as against both the run and the pass. As a cherry on top, the Tide are top-15 in havoc generated over that span, and they are slightly better at preventing touchdowns than the Bulldogs on the same amount of red-zone trips allowed this season. 

It might be beneficial to wait for a potential 3 to pop in the market, but if one does appear, it won’t last very long. All things considered, I’ll lean to Alabama at the current price. 

SEC Championship prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide +2.5 over Georgia Bulldogs (+100) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +2.

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When these teams met in Athens in September, the total closed at 54 points and the game stayed under by 9. As such, oddsmakers adjusted the total to 47.5 or 48 – depending on where you shop – for this game. It will be the lowest point total in this head-to-head series since the 2018 National Championship, a game in which the total closed at 45.5. With a final score of 26-23 in favor of Alabama, the total went over due to 9 points scored in overtime. As such, every single meeting with Alabama has gone over this number in Kirby Smart’s tenure aside from the most recent meeting in Athens.

Despite the previous streak of 7 overs, I like this matchup to stay under the total for a few reasons. First, both of these offenses are very methodical and don’t carry a ton of explosivity. Alabama and Georgia mutually reside outside the top 100 in seconds per play, outside the top 50 in explosiveness per play on the season, and 90th or worse in explosiveness per play since Week 10. Second, on the other side of the ball, the Tide and the ‘Dawgs mutually sit in the top 15 in plays allowed of at least 20 yards. While Georgia has been better at limiting explosives on a per play basis of late, the ‘Dawgs have been excellent at limiting passing explosives, and the Tide have been just as good at limiting rushing explosives over the 5 weeks – which is where the strengths of those offenses lie, respectively. 

Finally, there’s plenty more at stake for both of these teams. It’s hard to imagine either team dropping out of the CFP with a loss here, so – while the SEC Championship still holds value – I’m not sure either coaching staff is going to put its players in harm’s way when as many as 4 more games lie ahead in a quest for a national title. Look for this to be a lower-scoring, defensive game controlled more by methodical offensive drives and time of possession than points.

Georgia vs Alabama prediction: Under 48 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to 47.

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The Duke Blue Devils and Virginia Cavaliers battle for the ACC Championship less than a month removed from a regular season matchup that saw the Cavs dominate 34-17, limiting Duke to a whopping 42 rushing yards. While the cliché of “it’s hard to beat a team twice” might hold up in some cases, Virginia won the first meeting comfortably, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw a similar result. Duke squeaked into this game on the fifth tiebreaker and have allowed 33.3 points per game to their final 6 opponents of the season in a 3-3 stretch. On the contrary, the Virginia defense has produced results consistently this season behind a strong pass rush that averages 2.5 sacks per game. 

The Cavaliers rank top-30 in both success rate and net points per drive defensively. Duke has found itself in some shootouts this season, but proved to struggle against the Virginia front seven last time out. While the Virginia defense has been solid all year, it’s tough to say the same for a Duke unit that ranks 112th in defensive success rate and 114th in quality drive rate allowed. The Blue Devils primarily struggle against the pass which doesn’t bode well against Chandler Morris and co. If Morris can limit the turnovers — 2 of his 7 total INTs came against Duke — then Virginia has shown they are built to handle this Duke squad. I’ll take Virginia to cover the spread and claim the ACC title.

ACC Championship prediction: Virginia Cavaliers -4 over Duke Blue Devils (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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The under has cashed in 7 consecutive Virginia games, while the Duke Blue Devils are 4-1 to the over in their last 5 entering the ACC Championship game. These teams met just a few weeks back in a regular season matchup that finished with a combined total of 51, going under the closing total of 60. In the first meeting, Duke struggled mightily to get the run game going, posting a total of 42 rushing yards on 1.8 YPC. This time around, I expect the Blue Devils to lean on the passing game and let QB Darian Mensah loose. The sophomore QB has been slinging it this season with a 28:4 TD:INT ratio and has the Blue Devils ranking top-30 in EPA/dropback.

On the flipside, Virginia found success last time out in all 3 phases, posting over 310 passing yards and 220 rushing yards in the first meeting against the Blue Devils. It’s hard to expect anything different this time around as Duke has surrendered over 33 points per game throughout the final half of the season behind a defensive unit that ranks 112th in success rate and 114th in quality drive rate allowed. With all things considered, I’ve got the ACC Championship going over.

ACC Championship prediction: Over 57.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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