College Football Picks

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane and East Carolina Pirates clash in what oddsmakers have projected to be a lopsided affair in favor of the hosts. Ever since upsetting Oklahoma State as 10-point underdogs, Tulsa has failed to cover the spread as multi-score underdogs in back-to-back games. It’s been a mess for the Golden Hurricane; Tulsa ranks 118th in EPA/dropback, 124th in EPA/rush and 110th in points per quality drive. It’s been a struggle to move the football, and I don’t expect that to change against a solid East Carolina defense.

The Pirates rank 16th in defensive success rate and 42nd in total yards per game allowed. ECU has primarily excelled at stalling drives, ranking 27th in turnovers gained, 5th in red zone defense and 25th in 3rd/4th down success rate defensively. While the defense hasn’t been much better, East Carolina is averaging just 23 points per game against FBS opponents and hasn’t exactly lit up the scoreboard. I expect East Carolina to build an early lead, lean on the run game and chew this one out. I’ll take the under.

Tulsa vs East Carolina prediction: Under 54.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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Following a mutual bye week, the Louisville Cardinals will hit the road for Coral Gables for a primetime, Friday night meeting with the Miami Hurricanes. The ‘Cards fell to the Virginia Cavaliers in overtime 30-27 last time out, despite holding the ‘Hoos to just 237 total yards, 2.8 yards per carry and 6/15 on third downs. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes had their way with their in-state rival Florida State. The scoreboard and box score may depict a close game, but Miami was up 28-3 heading into the fourth quarter before letting off the gas a bit. 

Louisville and Miami have been 2 of the best defenses in the nation over the last 5 weeks from an efficiency standpoint. Both top-16 in PPA per play outside of garbage time since Week 3, the ‘Cards and the ‘Canes are also top-10 in success rate allowed and have surrendered fewer than 3.5 points per quality drive in that span. Miami’s defense figures to be a massive step up in class for Louisville’s offense, as the Hurricanes stop-unit is in a completely different class than the likes of James Madison, Bowling Green, Pitt and Virginia. 

These are 2 top-10 teams from a turnover margin perspective, while Louisville plays at a very deliberate pace – ranking 129th in seconds per play against FBS opponents. Moreover, both teams are flagged for penalties at an above-average rate, which may cut drives short at various points of the game. This has been a high-scoring matchup in recent years, but I’m expecting a slower, more defensive-minded game than those – so I lean to the under in this Friday ACC matchup. 

Louisville vs Miami prediction: Under 53 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better. 

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Our Friday night B1G matchup features the Nebraska Cornhuskers vs the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The Gophers are looking to build on their narrow win over Purdue last week, and they play a brand of football that leads to a lot of one-possession games. Their offense is not great, and they rely on their defense to keep games close. This week will be a tough test with the Huskers in town. The Huskers have a real shot at the postseason if they can win a tough road game here. I do not love that this spread is up above a touchdown, but I do feel like most of the money will end up on the Minnesota side as people bet on a close game. I am looking for Nebraska to win this game by something closer to 10, so I am taking the Huskers to cover.

We are far enough into the season that some of the cumulative stats are starting to be meaningful. The Cornhuskers have the #1 passing defense in the nation, allowing only 118 yards per game. They are middle of the road against the run, but Minnesota has been entirely impotent on the ground so far this season, and they want to pass first. That’s a problem in this matchup. Nebraska also boasts a top-10 passing offense led by Dylan Raiola, who threw 4 TDs last week. He also threw 3 picks, which is something he cannot keep doing. If the Huskers can continue to attack through the air, it should be a tough day for the Gophers to score, and I think Nebraska pulls away. Give me the Cornhuskers.

Nebraska vs Minnesota prediction: Nebraska -8 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The North Carolina Tar Heels will travel to the west coast on Friday night to take on the California Bears in an ACC matchup. North Carolina is on a 2-game losing streak and 0-1 in conference games. Their most recent loss came against Clemson 38-10. Struggling Clemson was able to roll against the Tar Heel defense that allows on average 373.2 yards per game this season. Max Johnson was back under center as a starting quarterback for the first time since the Tar Heels opening game last season. Johnson sustained a season-ending injury last season and has been spent his last couple of games splitting time with Gio Lopez. Johnson played the whole game against Clemson, throwing for 208 yards and completing 62% of his passes. He will try to continue to improve against a California defense that ranks 57th in the FBS against the pass, allowing 207.3 passing yards per game.

California is led by freshman quarterback standout Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. Sagapolutele’s performance has been up and down this season. He is coming off a poor outing against Duke where he threw 3 interceptions in a 45-21 loss. Overall, the California quarterback has thrown 3 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in California’s last 3 games.

North Carolina head coach Bill Belichick shut down rumors this week of him potentially leaving the program. Belichick said the rumors were false and he is here to stay in Chapel Hill to try and continue to build the program. In his first season, things have not gone well through 5 games. The Tar Heels have struggled on both sides of the ball, and they have been searching for players who can help improve this team’s performance. The key focus I have for the Tar Heels against California will be time of possession. North Carolina has struggled to sustain drives, and their defense has spent a lot of time on the field. They currently average 26:39 in time of possession in their first 5 games.

California’s inconsistencies should provide the Tar Heel’s defense with opportunities to get off the field and get the ball back in the hands of their offense. Sagapolutele’s turnovers have caused concerns on their own, but the Bears’ offense also has really struggled running the football. They rank 126th in the FBS with only 98 rushing yards per game. With a struggling quarterback and run game that can’t gain good yardage on first and second down, the Tar Heels should have multiple opportunities to stop California’s offense in 3rd and longs. If Johnson can continue to improve under center and limit turnovers, the Tar Heels should be able to keep this game close.

North Carolina vs Cal prediction: UNC +10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The early game in the Big 12 features the Arizona Wildcats at the Houston Cougars. This is an 11:00 am local kickoff, but even earlier for the visiting Wildcats. This is also a matchup between two teams that were projected near the bottom of the conference standings and are better than expected. Houston is a defense-first team, while Arizona is an up-tempo offense, and that battle should be intriguing. Personally, I think Arizona is better than expected and the better team in this game, so I will cast my lot with the Wildcats, even in an early road kickoff. Give me Arizona -1.

Houston is relatively untested with a soft scheduled compared to its peers. Its only tough opponent was Texas Tech, who beat the Cougars handily 35-11 and should have probably won by 40+ if it weren’t for multiple stall-outs and field goals rather than touchdowns. The Wildcats, on the other hand, battled BYU before losing in overtime last week, and they look like a team that could break through soon. With a veteran QB and a fast-paced offense that suits him, Arizona will test the Houston defense. The Cougars have a good QB of their own in Conner Weigman, but he will be opposed by an Arizona defense ranked in the top 10 in passing yards allowed. That stat is a bit surprising; they probably aren’t quite that good, but Houston is not a great offense — so I expect Arizona to have the advantage on that side of the ball. Going on the road for an early start gives me pause, but I do think Arizona is the better team here.

Arizona vs Houston Prediction: Arizona Wildcats -1 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Army catching nearly double digits looks tempting on the surface, which is exactly why this number is drawing so much public appeal. Casual bettors see a disciplined, physical Black Knights team that routed Tulane in last year’s AAC Championship and wonder how they can be such big underdogs. But that prior meeting has no bearing here — this year’s matchup is a different story entirely.

Tulane comes in off a narrow 26–19 escape against East Carolina, a game that’s creating the illusion they’re vulnerable. In reality, that was a flat spot for the Green Wave, and they still found a way to win despite not playing their best football. Take a closer look at their résumé: wins over Northwestern — fresh off knocking off Penn State — and Duke, who is favored this week against an undefeated, top-10 Georgia Tech squad. Their lone loss came to an Ole Miss team ranked inside the national top 5.

Let’s go back to last year, Tulane saw its CFP hopes dashed and came into the game in body and not spirit. The Black Knights also had the advantage of playing in West Point, but this is a different spot. Army’s run-heavy attack simply doesn’t have the explosiveness or depth to keep pace for 4 quarters. This spread isn’t a mistake — it’s a reflection of where these programs stand right now.

The market is leaning too heavily on last year’s narrative, combined with last week’s near miss, but this year’s Tulane team is built to handle business at home. Don’t be swayed by the “too easy” underdog. Lay the points with the Green Wave.

Army vs. Tulane prediction: Tulane Green Wave -9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -10.

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The Baylor Bears and their fan base will travel an hour north this weekend to take on the TCU Horned Frogs in a Big 12 matchup. Baylor has won 4 of its last 5 games and is currently on a 2-game winning streak. Its last game on October 4 was a 35-34 win against Kansas State. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson had another big game, throwing for 345 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. A pick-6 by Jacob Redding and a game-winning field goal helped propel the Bears to victory in the fourth quarter. TCU has had a similar start as Baylor, also 4-2, except the Horned Frogs have lost 2 of their last 3 games. TCU also played Kansas State in their last contest. The Horned Frogs fell short 41-28 on the road. Quarterback Josh Hoover threw for 376 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he could not limit turnovers with 2 interceptions. TCU was not able to overcome 28 unanswered points from their opponents, falling on the road as slight favorites.

A big offensive game is expected when these teams meet. Both Robertson and Hoover lead a top-5 passing offense in the FBS. Baylor currently ranks 1st in the FBS with 348.7 passing yards per game, while TCU ranks 5th with 322.3 yards per game. Robertson should be well-rested heading into this game coming off the bye, and I expect Hoover to bounce back from a poor outing against Kansas State. Hoover had a 2 interception outing earlier in the season, and he responded the next week throwing 4 touchdowns and no interceptions against Colorado.

The question is: which defense can do enough to slow down their opponent? TCU ranks 77th in the FBS, allowing 373.8 yards per game, and the Frogs allow 240.7 passing yards per game — ranking 100th. Baylor’s defense allows a higher total of yards per game at 402.8, ranking 110th, but they only allow 225.7 passing yards per game — ranking 76th. I’m leaning towards the TCU defense in this matchup. Not only are they playing on their home field, but they own a +1 turnover margin. That number is substantially better than Baylor’s turnover margin of -4. If TCU can force some turnovers, it should play a big factor in this high-scoring game.

Baylor vs TCU prediction: TCU Horned Frogs -3 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Georgia Tech used its bye week to re-focus its attention on the ACC race. After narrowly losing at Wake Forest in Week 5, the ensuing bye week was much needed. It worked; the Yellow Jackets came out of their week off looking strong offensively against Virginia Tech. Granted, the Hokies are a shell of their historical selves, but the Jackets gained 481 total yards, converted on 7/12 third downs, and rushed for 6.4 yards per carry and a total of 268 rushing yards. On the other side of the ball, I still have some questions. GT surrendered 367 yards to a flailing VT team, in addition to 5.5 yards per carry and 8.6 yards per pass – though the Jackets were strong on third downs. 

Duke’s offense has been humming. In their last 3 games, the Blue Devils have scored 128 points combined in wins over NC State, at Syracuse and at Cal. Fresh out of a bye week, they hope to continue where they left off. Since Week 3, Duke ranks top-20 in PPA per play and top-40 in points scored per quality drive. Georgia Tech is in a similar boat, sitting 22nd in yards per play and 50th in quality drive scoring over that same span of time. 

Both of these teams have had some high-flying offensive performances mixed in with a couple head-scratching defensive performances. Now GT and Duke will line up against one another, and there’s an argument that both teams have the best offenses either opponent has seen to this point of the season – at least in recent weeks. As such, I’m expecting points in a game between 2 offenses led by 2 of the top 5 quarterbacks in the ACC. Duke QB Darian Mensah has been great as a passer, leading the ACC in touchdown passes and big-time throws. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech QB Haynes King is a savvy veteran that can create with his arm and legs out of the backfield. To this point, he has no turnover-worthy plays. Look for the offenses to control this game. 

Georgia Tech vs Duke prediction: Over 61 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better. 

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Following a 20-10 home win over South Carolina, the LSU Tigers will head to Nashville to play the Vanderbilt Commodores, who enter this contest following a bye week. Prior to the bye, the ‘Dores dropped their first game of the season 30-14 at Alabama. They were outgained by more than 150 yards in the contest and had 2 costly red zone turnovers that may have changed the outcome – particularly on the spread if nothing else. Vandy was inside the number pretty much the entire game until Alabama RB Jam Miller punched in a touchdown to go up 17 points with as many seconds left on the clock. 

Oddsmakers have taken a massive stand on how they feel this game will go, listing the Commodores in unfamiliar territory as 2.5-point favorites at the time of writing. After they were catching double digits on the road in Tuscaloosa, it’s somewhat surprising to see the ‘Dores as favorites over this LSU defense from an analytical perspective – though it makes sense from an eye-test standpoint. Vandy has looked the part all year. LSU has not despite a 5-1 record, even in wins over Florida and South Carolina. 

Although my projections favor the Tigers by 1 point, I’m only leaning towards the ‘Dores in this one. I can’t help but think the line is a very strong indicator in this game. Furthermore, Vandy had an extra week to prepare for an LSU team that has not had a ton of success on the road under coach Brian Kelly. In fact, the Tigers have failed to win or cover in 3 straight road underdog appearances against SEC opponents, most recently at Ole Miss when a Division 2 transfer quarterback led the Rebels to 480 total yards against this highly-touted defense. Considering where the line currently sits, that isn’t exactly a good omen for LSU ahead of its trip to Nashville. For my money, Vanderbilt is every bit the offense Ole Miss currently is. Look for the ‘Dores to win this one outright. 

LSU vs Vanderbilt prediction: Vanderbilt Commodores ML (-130) at the time of publishing. Playable to -140 or -2.5 -110 on the spread.

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There isn’t going to be a ton of pace in this game, as both LSU and Vanderbilt are outside the top 115 in seconds per play. However, I like points in Nashville on Saturday. The Commodores have one of the most potent offenses in the country heading into this contest, currently sitting 1st nationally in PPA per play and 9th in points scored per quality drive over the last 5 weeks. Outside of a game at Ole Miss, LSU hasn’t seen an offense anywhere near Vanderbilt’s efficiency level, which is worth noting given the fact that the Tigers have been somewhat susceptible defensively on standard downs and against the run in recent weeks compared to the rest of their defensive metrics. That may be an issue in a matchup with a Commodores offense that is 1st nationally in PPA per rush and 4th in standard downs PPA since Week 3. 

For as good as Vanderbilt is offensively, the ‘Dores leave a bit to be desired on the defensive side of the field. They are 98th in PPA per play allowed over the last 5 weeks, and they’ve been vulnerable against the pass. In fact, Vandy is 104th in passing downs PPA and 120th in PPA per pass since the middle of September, which plays right into the hands of LSU’s strengths offensively with Garrett Nussmeier under center. I see this as a 27-24 type game, so give me the over at the current number. 

LSU vs Vanderbilt prediction: Over 48.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 49.

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This is a great spot to fade the Sooners, who looked lost last week against the unranked Longhorns of Texas in Red River. Yes, OU kept its ranking, but there are so many questions that linger as to what iteration of Boomer Sooner shows up in Columbia. The Gamecocks, meanwhile, come in off the radar and forgotten — a perfect spot to step in.

Remember, the Gamecocks were ranked once upon a time this season until losses to Vanderbilt, at LSU, and at Mizzou derailed them. We must also point out that all 3 of these teams are ranked, so this isn’t Carolina’s first rodeo in a matchup of this caliber. Losing to Texas is a tough pill to swallow for OU, but the Sooners did so turning the ball over 4 times and giving up points on special teams. In this game, they will face a quarterback that, pound-for-pound, could be better than Arch Manning in one Lanorris Sellers. Sellers is more dynamic, and he can exploit the Oklahoma defense — which at times looked porous against the run. Add in the fact that the Sooners will step into a notoriously unfriendly setting, and this is a spot tailor-made for the Gamecocks to exploit. The fact that Oklahoma is spotting less than a converted touchdown to a .500 football team says it all. South Carolina outright.

Oklahoma vs. South Carolina prediction: South Carolina ML (+175) available at time of publishing. Playable at number posted.

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It’s not the biggest matchup on the board, but one of the biggest games in Big Ten on Saturday comes in Ann Arbor, Michigan, where the Wolverines will host the Washington Huskies at the Big House. Last week, I was all over USC in a clear fade of Michigan in a bad spot, and the Wolverines were never truly in that game against a Trojans offense that sliced and diced their way through the Michigan defense. While the prevailing thought would be to back the Wolverines in a bounce-back spot at home, I’m more inclined to look toward Washington in a game where I have real matchup concerns for Michigan for a second straight week.

While Michigan’s defense has typically been the strength of the team in recent seasons, I have a hard time seeing this Wolverines unit producing against a Washington offense that is 11th in success rate, 10th in passing success rate, 6th in 3rd and 4th down success rate, 2nd in quality drive rate and 17th in points per drive (CFB-Graphs). Outside of a difficult game against Ohio State — arguably the best defense in the country — this has been an excellent unit, and I’m of the belief that Demond Williams Jr, Jonah Coleman, Denzel Boston and company should be able to generate success against a Michigan defense that is shocking poor in the secondary (80th in passing success rate allowed). The Wolverines just struggled mightily against the dynamic USC offense, and while Washington doesn’t necessarily pose the same challenges as USC’s elite passing game, this is still an offense that can put up points in bunches and has as good of a 2-headed monster in the backfield as any team across the nation. 

On the other side, while Bryce Underwood is undoubtedly a talent worthy of the massive hype, he hasn’t been all that effective when Michigan has had to step up in class this season. The Wolverines could be without Justice Haynes in this game, which would be a massive blow against a Washington run defense that has been surprisingly stout in that department this season (16th in EPA per rush, 33rd in rushing success rate allowed). Regardless of if Haynes suits up, the Michigan passing game still looks like a pretty broken operation, and while he should see some success against Washington’s middling pass defense, I just don’t see any difference makers  in this wide receiver room. Ultimately, I’ll lean on the visitors to keep this game within a possession in what should be a competitive matchup from start to finish.

Washington vs Michigan prediction: Washington Huskies +6.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Washington +6. 

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This is the definition of a noon-slate toss-up — two middle-tier Big 12 programs squaring off in relative obscurity – but one side clearly holds the situational edge. The Mountaineers come in off a bye, giving them an extra week to prepare, while UCF is off a physical road game at a ranked Cincinnati. Optics do the selling here for the Golden Knights.

While UCF’s record may look steadier, their schedule has been considerably softer. The Golden Knights have benefitted from home dates against Kansas, a floundering North Carolina team, and Kansas State – who tumbled out of the Top 25 after a shaky start. They’ve also feasted on a pair of cupcakes — North Carolina A&T and Jacksonville State — to pad the win column.

West Virginia, on the other hand, has been through a grinder. The Mountaineers have battled ranked opposition and tricky road environments — at Kansas, at BYU (undefeated and ranked), and against Utah (also ranked and touted as the class of the Big 12). Moreover, they’ve faced a resurgent Pitt squad that just stunned Florida State in Tallahassee and fell into a trap against a strong Ohio team on the road, which was the week before the Backyard Brawl with their arch rival Pittsburgh. The result? A battle-tested group with one more loss, but far more seasoning.

UCF might have the home field, but West Virginia’s edge in experience against premium opposition and additional preparation time give them a puncher’s chance here. This line should be closer to a field goal. Take the points with the Mountaineers.

West Virginia vs. UCF prediction: West Virginia Mountaineers +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.

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Coming off arguably their biggest win in school history, the Indiana Hoosiers will try to continue their undefeated season this Saturday when they welcome the Michigan State Spartans to Bloomington. Indiana’s 6-0 record is no fluke at this point, as it includes 3 Big Ten wins. The Hoosiers last win was a 30-20 victory on the road against Oregon, which felt like a big step forward for the program – proving to the college football world that the Hoosiers are for real in 2025. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza threw for 215 yards and 1 touchdown pass against Oregon, and has excelled all season throwing for 1423 yards and 17 touchdowns.

Indiana’s high-powered offense will welcome the 3-3 Spartans. Michigan State started the season winning its first 3 games, but the Spartans are currently on a 3-game losing streak – all to conference opponents. The Spartans’ last game was a 38-13 defeat against UCLA. They started the game with a 7-0 lead, but ended up seeing the momentum shift away from them after quarterback Aiden Chiles went down with an injury. Chiles is listed as questionable for the game against Indiana.

In order for Indiana to cover this spread against Michigan State, the Hoosiers will have to be at their best. They have shown all season that, under head coach Curt Cignetti, they come ready to play each and every Saturday. Indiana’s defense currently ranks 4th in the FBS with only 229 yards allowed per game. They also rank 5th in the turnover margin at a total of +7. It could go without saying that if this defense brings its normal intensity, it will cause a lot of trouble for backup quarterback Alessio Milivojevic (assuming Chiles is unable to play).

Michigan State’s head coach Jonathan Smith still has a lot of confidence in his backup quarterback. Milivojevic is a former 3-star prospect from the state of Illinois. He has exposure under center this season against other Big Ten Conference teams, throwing a touchdown pass and avoiding any turnovers against both UCLA and Nebraska. Due to the excitement surrounding the Hoosiers, the Spartans may struggle early against an amped-up Hoosier defense, but once this game settles in the second half, the Spartans offense should be able to put some points up on the board with whoever they have under center. I have points coming easy for Indiana and Michigan State, providing just enough to push this game over the total. 

Michigan State vs Indiana prediction: Over 52.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Ole Miss Rebels will hit the road for the first time since Week 2 – this time as an undefeated top-5 team – when they travel to Athens to play the Georgia Bulldogs at Sanford Stadium at 3:30PM ET on Saturday afternoon. Though, things got dicey for the Rebels last week when they hosted Washington State. Catching as many as 32 points, the Cougars had a 14-10 lead at the halfway point of the third quarter before the Rebels went on a 14-7 run to end the game – narrowly escaping with a 3-point win despite the massive line. 

Georgia returns home after a controversial win at Auburn in which they outgained the Tigers 296-277. The Bulldogs seem to have turned up the heat defensively since their loss to Alabama, but it’s tough to say for sure due to how limited Kentucky and Auburn have been offensively at various points this season. Ole Miss’ offense is more like Tennessee and Alabama’s than it is Kentucky and Auburn’s, which isn’t necessarily the best omen for Georgia considering the ‘Dawgs surrendered almost 900 yards to the Vols and Tide combined. 

This is not the Georgia defense of old. At least, it hasn’t been to this point of the season. The Bulldogs are 97th in third-down conversion rate allowed, and over the last 5 weeks, they are 76th in PPA per play allowed and just 94th in havoc generated. In fact, Georgia is 106th in tackles for loss and 112th in sacks in FBS games. This should be music to Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss’ ears, as he is unlikely to face a ton of pressure in his first road start at the Division 1 level. Since taking over as the Rebels signal-caller, Chambliss has thrown 6 touchdowns in 4 games with 8 big-time throws and just 2 turnover-worthy plays. Both of those turnover-worthy plays were against Washington State last week, which was a game the Rebels were clearly looking past – likely to this game in Athens. 

If Georgia isn’t going to get pressure on Chambliss, I expect Chambliss and the Rebels to move the ball methodically and score enough to finish inside the number – as the backend of Georgia’s defense has been suspect lately. Since Week 3, the ‘Dawgs are outside the top-80 in passing downs PPA and outside the top-105 in PPA per pass. Moreover, they surrendered points nearly every time Tennessee or Alabama crossed into scoring range (over the 40-yard line). Don’t get me wrong, I have plenty of questions about Ole Miss and its run defense in this matchup, but 7.5 is too many points. I have this more around 6, so I’ll take the points with the fighting Lane Kiffins here.

Ole Miss vs Georgia prediction: Ole Miss Rebels +8.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to +7.

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Georgia hasn’t played many teams that run an uptempo offense like Ole Miss. The only team the Bulldogs have played that runs a similar pace to that of Ole Miss is Tennessee, and in that overtime game, there were nearly 1,000 yards combined and 85 total points – 76 of which were in regulation. The Vols were able to stretch the ball down the field at-will against Georgia’s defense, and while some of that is due to the insane catches the Tennessee WRs were making against the Bulldogs secondary, the Rebels are equally as equipped to move the ball down the field through the air in chunks. In fact, Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss leads the SEC in completion percentage and yards per attempt on passes of at least 20 yards according to PFF. As such, the Rebels are top 20 in yards per play, PPA per pass and passing downs PPA, along with top-40 in pass explosiveness – a perfect makeup to pick apart this Georgia secondary and find the end zone.

On the other side of the field, Georgia has been balanced offensively and should find some success on the ground against this Ole Miss defensive front. The Rebels rank 110th in PPA per rush allowed since Week 3, which doesn’t bode well for them against Georgia RBs Chauncey Bowens and Nate Frazier. Don’t forget, like Chambliss, Georgia QB Gunner Stockton can create with his legs as well as his arm, accumulating 220 rushing yards with 6 scores on the ground to this point. 

All things considered, Ole Miss’s tempo should create a couple extra possessions in this contest. Expecting both teams to be able to move the ball for a majority of his game, my only look on the total would be to the over. 

Ole Miss vs Georgia prediction: Over 54 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 54.5.

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The Ohio State Buckeyes and the Wisconsin Badgers couldn’t be going in more opposite directions right now. The reigning national champs are perfect 6-0 heading into Madison for their second consecutive road game after beating a ranked Illinois team 34-16. Meanwhile, the Badgers are 2-4 and have yet to beat a power conference opponent. In fact, Wisconsin has scored just 34 points combined in its last 4 games against Alabama, Maryland, Michigan and Iowa. Most recently, the Hawkeyes shut-out the Badgers in Madison last week 37-0, holding them to just 209 total yards of offense. 

Coach Luke Fickell is on thin ice in Madison, and it doesn’t help that starting QB Billy Edwards remains out after re-aggravating his Week 1 injury. Maybe he returns this weekend ahead of the brutal stretch of games Wisconsin has to endure to end the year, but I’m not entirely sold he would help this Wisconsin offense come to life against an Ohio State defense that is 2nd nationally in yards per play and third-down conversion rate on the season, while sitting top 6 in PPA per play and points per quality drive allowed since Week 3. For what it’s worth, Wisconsin’s offense ranks 134th and 135th, respectively, in those 2 aforementioned metrics over the last 5 weeks. 

Despite playing as the hosts, it figures to be a long day at the office for the Badgers yet again. There are certainly better spots to bet on Saturday, but if you have to have action on this game, the only way I could go is betting against what seems to be a lame-duck coach in Fickell. Laying nearly 4 touchdowns worth of points on the road is never a settling proposition, especially in a game between quite literally the 2 slowest-paced teams in the country on a seconds per play basis, but I expect multiple explosive plays from the Buckeyes to go for touchdowns – and I wouldn’t be surprised to see multiple Wisconsin turnovers leading to short fields for the Bucks. 

Ohio State vs Wisconsin prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes -25 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to -26. 

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The Monarchs quietly were a bit of a commodity leading into last week’s match-up with Marshall. The market catching ODU early was cashing tickets week in and week out, and they continued to press and hammer the Freight Line last week when they were spotting over 2 converted touchdowns on the road at the Thundering Herd.

However, Marshall would not only cover, but light up Old Dominion while they were at it. Forget the points, Marshall won outright by 14 as the hosts, and with that, ODU’s stock went into the gutter. Now, we get Old Dominion at a better price than we would have if they had done what they were supposed to do last week in Huntington.

James Madison quietly has ascended to 5-1, their only loss a tooth-and-nail defeat at Louisville that was a lot closer than the scoreboard let on. But let us remind you who ODU has taken down already this season: Virginia Tech in Blacksburg and they gave #3 Indiana a game in Bloomington. This is a dangerous football team, and one bad week of football doesn’t erase that. ODU responds big here.

Old Dominion vs. James Madison prediction: Old Dominion Monarchs ML (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to number posted.

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The Clemson Tigers have looked like a new team after a bye week hit at the right time following a rough loss at home against unranked Syracuse. After back-to-back dominant road wins, the Tigers return to Death Valley to take on a quality SMU side in a matchup that has seen absurd line movement. Less than a week ago, Clemson was -11 and has moved all the way down to -5.5 in some spots. Similarly, the over/under has dropped from 55.0 to 51.5 since October 12.

With a stout defense and offense that prefers slow, methodical drives, I expect Clemson to control the tempo of this game. The Tigers offense though has been a bit of a disappointment with a preseason Heisman hopeful at quarterback, ranking 86th in offensive success rate. On the contrary, the defense has been solid at stalling drives, ranking 21st in points per quality drive and top-40 in red zone defense. I’ll follow the line movement in this spot and take the under.

SMU vs Clemson prediction: Under 51.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

The Arkansas Razorbacks have dropped four straight, but likely played their best game of the season in a 3-point loss at Tennessee coming off the bye week. With Sam Pittman fired, Bobby Petrino has had a reasonable amount of time to settle in now, and this is likely the biggest home matchup for the Razorbacks all season. The Arkansas defense has had its fair share of struggles, but this offense is built to keep things close. Three of the last four losses have come in one-possession games — two of those against top-25 opponents — and the Razorbacks rank 6th in total offense. Furthermore, the unit has been efficient under QB Taylen Green, ranking 13th in EPA margin offensively and 10th in offensive success rate.

Texas A&M’s offense has been solid, but the Aggies don’t have the tempo to pull away in this one as the Razorbacks are capable of popping off an explosive play at any time. Arkansas ranks 2nd in 20+ yard plays and 10th in 30+ yard plays among FBS programs this year. I expect the Razorback faithful to show out for this one, and I’ve got Arkansas covering at home.

Texas A&M vs Arkansas prediction: Arkansas +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

One of the key matchups in the Mountain West is this weekend’s battle between the UNLV Rebels and the Boise State Broncos. These teams sit atop the conference standings at 2-0, and the Rebels are a surprising 6-0 on the season. Of course, they also have to listen to the “you haven’t played anybody” arguments, because, well, they haven’t played anybody. A win over a then-lowly UCLA team is their high point, so Boise will be their first true measuring stick. As for the Broncos, they already have 2 losses—South Florida and Notre Dame—but they have covered 5 straight games against the spread. This is a suspicious line, as if Vegas is daring all the local bettors to take the points with the undefeated Rebels, but I think this is a Boise State spot. Give me Boise St -12.

The problem for the Rebels is defense. They rank 117^th against the pass and 122^nd against the run (out of 134 teams). Those rankings are based on total yards allowed, and they are not adjusted for strength of competition. I will remind you that they haven’t played anybody good yet, and they are still near the bottom of every defensive ranking. There is little doubt that Boise is going to hang 40 or 50 points on UNLV. For the Rebs to cover this number, or have any hope of winning, they will have to score and keep up. This is a decent offense, to be sure, but I think this Boise State defense is better than people might expect, and the softer conference competition is going to cause that to come out. I think Boise can win this game at home by 2 touchdowns.

UNLV vs Boise State Prediction: Boise State Broncos -12 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -13.

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Memphis comes into this game ranked, undefeated and perfect against the spread. That’s the kind of profile that will almost certainly make the Tigers overvalued before we step any further. Against a team like UAB that is 2-4 both against the number and straight up on the season, the more likely it is that the Blazers are to be taking back an inflated number. This contest screams Tigers in every sense of the word, but we warn that Memphis is almost certainly overvalued here.

This is not about UAB, it’s a fade of the Tigers because of how inflated their market perception is. As result, in a game with a high over/under of 63.5, the market insists on spotting this kind of lumber – which is not conducive. Offensive games are all the more unpredictable and that makes a 3-touchdown lay a dicey roll. There is also lookahead potential because the Tigers host South Florida in Memphis next week in a ranked showdown that has conference and College Football Playoff implications. The Tigers aren’t inclined to clobber UAB; they will aim to survive and move on. Thus, the backdoor is also open should Memphis get ahead early and call off the dogs. Either way you spell it, there are several ways for Memphis to not get ATS backers to the window, whether it be overlay, looking ahead or taking the foot off the gas and leaving the backdoor open. Grab the points.

Memphis vs. UAB prediction:  UAB Blazers +21.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +21.

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One of the biggest games of the season in the Big 12 takes place in the desert this week, as the Texas Tech Red Raiders face the Arizona State Sun Devils. Texas Tech comes into the contest at 6-0 and rapidly climbing the national rankings as voters realize this team is not a pretender. The defending conference champ Sun Devils, though, find themselves in an early must-win spot; if they take a second conference loss, it will be hard to climb back into that conference title game from there. The biggest issue in this game is injuries, and especially when it comes to the starting QBs, and that makes this game especially hard to handicap. I am, for now, taking the Red Raiders at -7.5.

It looks like Sam Leavitt will suit up for the Sun Devils after missing last week’s game against Utah. ASU was whooped soundly in his absence. Even with Leavitt though, this is not last year’s Sun Devil team. The previous two games saw ASU narrowly survive against TCU and Baylor, and Texas Tech is far better than either of those squads. To me, too much of this offense is just about forcing the ball to star WR Jordyn Tyson, and defenses are catching up to it. On the other side, Behren Morton is listed as questionable, but my sense is he is on the doubtful side. The Raiders are better equipped to play with a backup QB than is ASU though, and they might be okay. Arizona State is a strong rush defense, but their passing defense is much more vulnerable, and they have some injuries in that second on top of that. This is a spot where Texas Tech can show that they have talent and depth across the board, and I think they win; winning by more than a touchdown is a tougher bet, but I’ll go with it. Tons of early money is flooding the ASU side too, and I generally prefer to avoid that.

Texas Tech vs Arizona State Prediction: Texas Tech -7.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

With all of the massive matchups in store for us on Saturday, one of the more under the radar games comes in Gainesville, where the Florida Gators will host the Mississippi State Bulldogs in a clash of SEC hopefuls that are looking to shake up the conference. However, while the hosts have been receiving a ton of market support in recent weeks, I’m all over the underdogs in the Swamp on Saturday.

After looking like it had finally fixed its issues on offense, Florida is coming off a convincing loss to Texas A&M that is sure to send Billy Napier and company back to the drawing board after a very successful first 2 drives were essentially the only points the Gators generated in that game. DJ Lagway does have his top receiver in Dallas Wilson back from an extended absence, but the passing game still struggled to generate any sort of success or explosiveness, as it has all season long. The Gators are just 84th in passing success rate and 70th in EPA per dropback, which doesn’t give them a favorable matchup against a Mississippi State defense that has surprisingly been a top 45 unit against the pass to this point, and ranks 38th in points per drive allowed. It’s not as if being at home will help Florida all that much, with the Gators having already lost to South Florida in the Swamp back on September 6. And while this defense has been rock solid for most of the year, this unit is a tad overrated in the market compared to some of the metrics (56th in EPA per dropback).

On the other side, Mississippi State has been one of the surprise stories in the SEC and the Bulldogs are coming off a game against Tennessee in which they really could’ve — and probably should’ve — won a game in which they were underdogs of over a touchdown, but not a full 10 points. With that in mind, this number feels a bit egregious, especially since the Bulldogs offense is a veteran group that tops in the nation in rushing success rate, while sitting at 22nd nationally in success rate per CFB-Graphs. The Florida defense is one that has the ability to slow down any team, but it remains to see in the crowd will really get up and bake the hosts, or will Jeff Lebby’s group be the one to bring the energy and punch Florida in the mouth early on. My money is on the latter, so let’s take the ‘dog with the points.

Mississippi State vs Florida prediction: Mississippi State Bulldogs +10 available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.

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Saturday night’s SEC action features the Texas Longhorns vs the Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington. The Longhorns are 4-2 after a win last week over Oklahoma, and with quite a conference gauntlet remaining, they cannot afford any trap game losses like this one. The Wildcats are likely headed for last place in the SEC, already at 0-3 and unlikely to be favored in any of the remaining league games. The bottom line here is that Kentucky is just not very good, and Texas should be able to control this game comfortably. Give me Texas -12.5.

I get it if you are an Arch Manning hater and are picking against Texas because of it. But in this spot, we need to take seriously that Kentucky ranks 111^th in passing yards allowed, and there just shouldn’t ever be an SEC defense down that low. If Manning is ever going to gash a conference defense, this is the spot. If Kentucky is going to have any success, the Wildcats need to run the ball and shorten the game, because they sure as heck can’t throw the ball effectively. But again, the issue here is a matchup problem, as the Longhorns have the 4th-best rushing defense in the country. This is just a bad matchup for the Cats; give me Texas to win by 2 scores.

Texas vs Kentucky Prediction: Texas Longhorns -12.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Oregon Ducks look to bounce back after a loss in Eugene against Indiana, hitting the road to face Rutgers. This matchup calls for a whole lot of offense. It’s no secret the Oregon offense is elite; the Ducks rank 9th in scoring offense, 23rd in yards per game and top-8 in both net points per drive and points per quality drive. Oregon QB Dante Moore is capable of making big plays while Rutgers QB Athan Kaliakmanis can sling it, ranking 6th individually in passing yards per game.

The duality of the 2025 Rutgers squad is quite interesting as the defense has been putrid, ranking 123rd in defensive success rate and 116th in defensive EPA margin. The Rutgers defense has surrendered 30+ points against all four FBS opponents this season. On the contrary, the offense has the highest quality drive rate in FBS, ranking 20th in points per quality drive and 32nd in points per game. The Ducks’ offense should have a field day and the Scarlet Knights are certainly capable of putting up points; I’ll take the over in this spot.

Oregon vs Rutgers prediction: Over 59.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

The Virginia Cavaliers have been promoted all the way up to the 18th-ranked team in the country without having a lot of national attention. Virginia went into Louisville 2 weeks ago and won 30-27 in overtime despite starting the game as 6.5-point underdogs. Starting quarterback Chandler Morris threw for 149 yards and 1 touchdown, and running back J’Mari Taylor led the team in rushing with 68 yards and 1 touchdown. With the win, Virginia handed Louisville their first loss and now have the attention of the national spotlight. Their opponent this week will be the Washington State Cougars. Washington State currently sits at 3-3, but is coming off a close loss to Ole Miss. Despite being 32.5-point underdogs, the Cougars kept this game close and even had a 14-10 lead late in the 3rd quarter. Quarterback Zevi Eckhaus threw for 218 yards and 2 touchdowns, and running back Kirby Vorhees led the team in rushing with 88 yards and 1 touchdown. 

Washington State was able to keep the game close against Ole Miss by playing a clean game with no turnovers. Playing mistake-free football could be the Cougars’ path towards keeping this game against Virginia close as well. While Virginia played well against Louisville, the Cavaliers benefitted heavily from 2 huge turnovers committed by their opponent. The first turnover was a bobbled and fumbled pitch by the Louisville running back that was scooped up and ran back for a defensive touchdown. The second turnover was an ill-advised pass thrown by Louisville’s quarterback – as he had a defender on his back – that was intercepted and also returned for a touchdown. Without those 2 avoidable mistakes from their opponent, Virginia may be 5-1 heading into this game.

Washington State has struggled with offensive consistency to start the season, but showed some ability to be explosive last week against an SEC defense. Their defense, which ranks 56th in the FBS in total yards allowed and 40th against the pass, should be equipped to provide enough resistance to the Cavalier offense to keep this game close.

Washington State vs Virginia prediction: Washington State Cougars +17 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The UCLA Bruins have appeared to have found their footing, winning their last two games played against Big Ten opponents. They will try to make it three straight conference wins when they welcome in the Maryland Terrapins this weekend. The Bruins two wins came against Penn State and last week against Michigan State. The victory against Michigan State was a blowout win on the road at the score of 38-13. Michigan State scored the first touchdown of the game, but then the Bruins proceeded to respond by scoring 38 unanswered points. It is worth noting Michigan State lost their starting quarterback to injury in this game, but that didn’t stop Bruins’ quarterback Nico Iamaleava from continuing to grow his confidence. Iamaleava has thrown for 346 yards, 5 touchdowns and no interceptions in UCLA’s last two wins. Running back Jalen Berger has proved to be a dynamic weapon, contributing towards 3 total touchdowns against Michigan State. After starting the season 4-0, Maryland is coming into this Saturday on a two-game losing streak. The Terrapins lost 24-20 against Washington, and then 34-31 against Nebraska last week. Both games took place on their home field. Maryland got a good game out of freshman quarterback Malik Washington, who completed 27 of 37 passes for 249 yards and 1 touchdown, but the Terrapins could not find a way to win despite forcing 3 interceptions, including a go-ahead pick-6 in the 3rd quarter. 

It took awhile, but Iamaleava finally looks to be more poised in the pocket as the quarterback for UCLA. The explosiveness he showed in Tennessee is still not there, but no turnovers in his last two games is a big part of why the Bruins won both games. Turnovers will be a key again this week as the Bruins go up against the top ranked defense in the category of turnover margin. Maryland is +10 this season in turnover margin, and they continued their dominance last week with the three interceptions. Maryland has looked good as of late despite losing their last two games. In both losses, Maryland blew a double-digit fourth quarter lead. They led by 10 against Nebraska and 17 against Washington before eventually losing the contest. Maryland has not been able to hold their leads due to their inability to run the football. They rank 124th in the FBS in rushing yards at just under 100 yards per game. This Saturday’s game could be a good opportunity for Maryland to establish the run, especially if they get a lead late, against a UCLA defense that allowed 195.8 rushing yards per game, ranking them 124th in the FBS against the run. UCLA has looked like they’ve improved and gotten on track, but if Maryland can force turnovers against Iamaleava, we may see UCLA return to the form and look again like the team that lost against UNLV and New Mexico earlier this season. 

Maryland +135 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Penn State has been the grandest disappointment of this season. The Nittany Lions in a span of 3 weeks went from a top-5 outfit to out of the rankings with their head coach James Franklin fired. Who would want to get on board here? Especially considering that PSU is 0-6 against the spread for the season. But that’s where the opportunity lies.

In the summer, this line had PSU posted as a -10.5 favorite. Last Sunday the Nittany Lions were still favorites on the road but very quickly Iowa money came in to where we see the present price now. One hears a lot about value betting, this is the prototypical spot that demonstrates it. You get a team that was a double-digit favorite now at plus money, that makes the play worth looking at in itself. Yes, Drew Allar is done for the season and Franklin is gone, but the rest of the roster remains and the interim coach is a man who bleeds blue and white: Terry Smith.

This is a seminal circle-the-wagons moment for Penn State and a chance for it to reset. The Nittany Lions will approach this game with nothing to lose and that makes them dangerous here considering this is a club still loaded with talent that we reiterate was ranked #2 in some pre-season polls. Pass on the points; let’s take the Nittany Lions outright.

Penn State vs Iowa prediction: Penn State ML (+125) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The FAU Owls make the cross-state trek to Raymond James Stadium to battle the ranked USF Bulls in Tampa. USF’s offense has been super explosive, going for 54 or more points in three straight outings, while averaging 58.5 points per game (PPG) in the past two American Conference games against Charlotte and North Texas. It has covered both of its games as a favorite of 21 or more points, too, while cashing the Over in four in a row. QB Byrum Brown leads the team with 1,439 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and five interceptions, while also leading with 364 rushing yards and five scores. If FAU is to sniff an upset, it all starts with containing Brown, or at least limiting him somewhat.

The Owls looked dead in the water after back-to-back losses at FIU and home to Memphis, both by double digits. However, FAU surprised Rice 27-21 on the road, and it followed that up with a 53-33 win over UAB, showing a little offensive explosiveness of its own. In fact, the Owls are good for 26 or more points in each of the past five games since a 39-7 loss at Maryland in the opener. The Over is 4-1 in the past five games, but the total on this game is much to high. However, FAU catching more than three touchdowns is huge, and if you can get 21 and a hook, that could be a very important half-point. FAU should be able to keep USF within arm’s length, but its defense leaves a lot to be desired, so be ready to sweat. The road team has won and covered the past three meetings in this series.

FAU +21.5 (-115) at time of publishing. Playable to 21.

There are a couple of items to unpack here, starting with Pitt. The Panthers, catching 10.5 points a week ago, went into Tallahassee and stunned Florida State. That’s impressive, sure, but let’s keep this in perspective. The Seminoles were already a 2-loss team, falling to Miami  — arguably the best team in the country — and at Virginia, a now-ranked side coming off a big win the week before. Nevertheless, it was supposed to be a get-right spot for FSU, but Pitt caught the ‘Noles flat and capitalized. That result has shifted the market hard toward the Panthers, but this number says more about public reaction than actual separation between these teams.

Now Pitt flips to being a double-digit favorite on the road, which feels like a stretch. Syracuse, meanwhile, has drifted out of the spotlight after getting hammered 38-3 by Duke in the Carrier Dome back in late September and taking a double-digit loss at SMU 2 weeks ago. That recent form, coupled with rumors that head coach Fran Brown could be a lead candidate for the Penn State vacancy, makes the Orange a tough sell for casual bettors. But that’s chatter — not anything of substance.

But this is exactly the kind of setup where value lies. Pitt’s stock is at its high point, and backing the Panthers now means you’re a week late to the story. Syracuse, meanwhile, is the forgotten side — at home, catching a big number and perfectly positioned to respond. ‘Cuse can win this outright, but the recommendation is to grab the points with the Orange.

Pittsburgh vs Syracuse prediction: Syracuse +10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +10.

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This Saturday, under the lights of Bryant-Denny Stadium, the Tennessee Volunteers and the Alabama Crimson Tide will meet for another installment of their rivalry series known as the “Third Saturday in October.” The Tide controlled this series for the better part of 2 decades, but the Vols have taken 2 of the last 3 – both in Knoxville by 1 score. In fact, Tennessee has not won in T-Town since 2003.

The Vols come into this contest with a 5-1 overall record, but they are just 2-3-1 ATS – failing to cover a spread since Week 2. While they have won 3 straight, the Vols have shown some vulnerability recently, needing overtime to win at Mississippi State and then letting Arkansas back into the game last week. Meanwhile, the Tide are also 5-1, covering the spread in 4 of those games. The Week 1 loss to Florida State feels like a distant memory at this point, as the Tide have rattled off 5 straight wins – including their last 3 over ranked teams in Missouri, Vanderbilt and Georgia.

If you want to beat Alabama, whether on the spread or outright, you’re going to have to stop the pass. Unfortunately for Tennessee fans, the Volunteers’ weakest defensive trait is their secondary, ranking 97th in PPA per pass and 108 in passing downs PPA over the last 5 weeks. Furthermore, Tennessee is 92nd in third-down conversion allowed and 115th in points per quality drive. Kalen DeBoer, Ryan Grubb and Ty Simpson are likely salivating over the schematic advantages they have on the offensive side of the ball, as the Tide are 6th in PPA per pass, 7th in passing downs PPA and 25th in points per quality drive over the last 5 weeks, while boasting a top-15 third-down conversion mark on the season as a whole. 

On top of defensive inefficiencies – which are certainly exacerbated by the injuries to Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson – Tennessee has been penalized more than most teams in the FBS, ranking 110th with 7.6 per game. That’s not an issue that will remedy itself under the lights in Tuscaloosa. In fact, the atmosphere is likely to make it twice as bad. Furthermore, turnovers were an issue in Tennessee’s only true road game to this point, as the Vols gave the ball away 3 times in Starkville a few weeks ago. Look for the Tide to feed off the home crowd, pick apart Tennessee’s secondary and force ample Volunteer mistakes in what should be a double-digit win at home in T-Town. 

Tennessee vs Alabama prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide -7.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to -9. 

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This game represents a clash in styles from a tempo standpoint. Tennessee operates at the 3rd-fastest pace in the country, running a play at an average of every 21.5 seconds. Meanwhile, Alabama is much more methodical and snaps the ball closer to every 29 seconds, which is good for 115th nationally (one of the 25 slowest teams in the country). 

The Tide’s methodical approach is key to predicting the total accurately. Tennessee and Alabama are certainly buoyed by their offenses, both of which are explosive and can light up scoreboards in a hurry. However, Alabama has shown an ability to eat the clock in bunches. The Tide opened the season with a drive that lasted nearly 9 minutes and resulted in a touchdown at Florida State, had 4 5+ minute drives at Georgia, held the ball more than 7 minutes twice against Vanderbilt and even had a 9-minute drive in the second half at Missouri after opening the game with a 6-minute drive. This ability to methodically drive down the field and possess the ball for long periods of time really makes it hard to count on enough points to push this game over the total. 

Despite this game being between 2 high-flying offenses, Alabama’s tempo is likely to suppress scoring in Tuscaloosa on Saturday, as is its top-20 red zone defense. This has the makings of a 34-21 type game, so I recommend looking toward the under at the current price.

Tennessee vs Alabama prediction: Under 58.5 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to 57.

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The Cincinnati Bearcats head to Boone Pickens Stadium on Saturday night to face the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Bearcats find themselves atop the conference standings at 3-0, 5-1 overall, and with a reasonably favorable schedule remaining. Oklahoma State, of course, is in the midst of a disaster season — it is in last place in the conference and has already made a coaching change. As a result, the spread on this game is unsurprisingly high. I do not mean to imply that the Cowboys are good, or even figuring things out, but I do think this number is too large. I’ll take Oklahoma State to cover +21.5 at home.

The problem for the Cowboys is that they are one of the worst defenses in the country, especially on the passing side. And Cincinnati excels in the passing game. On the other hand, the Bearcats are not a very good defensive team overall, and this is a decent spot for Oklahoma State to put up enough points to cover. Cincinnati has been a surprise; I do think the Bearcats have overperformed, and they will experience some regression in the second half of the season as teams get more film on them. This game will probably produce a lot of points — but as long as OSU is putting up its fair share, it should cover a big number in their home stadium.

Cincinnati vs Oklahoma State prediction; Oklahoma State +21.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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While the SEC will take center stage on Saturday, one of the biggest games of the weekend comes in the Big 12, where the BYU Cougars are set to take on the Utah Utes in the annual “Holy War” game. This should be a battle between a couple of heated rivals, and I’m confident in the Utes to exact a bit of revenge from last year’s heartbreaking defeat at home, in which Utah was one late flag call away from knocking off a better version of this BYU team, while also starting its fourth string quarterback in that game. It goes without saying that Kyle Whittingham’s team is in a much better situation from an injury perspective this time around, and we’ve seen the Utes bounce back in a big way in recent weeks after looking a bit overmatched against Texas Tech last month. As it turned out, some of the Utes’ key pieces were banged up on both sides in that game — including quarterback Devon Dampier. The dynamic Dampier has looked like his old self of late, including rushing for 120 yards and 3 touchdowns against a very solid Arizona State defensive front a week ago. Even while playing a pretty solid schedule thus far, the Utah offense is 8th in success rate and 1st in 3rd and 4th down success rate for a reason, and Jason Beck’s unit should see success against a BYU defense that is certainly due for some major turnover regression going forward.

As for the hosts, BYU has certainly been one of the more fortunate teams in the Power 4 to this point, with the Cougars benefiting massively from turnover luck on both sides of the ball against the likes of East Carolina and Colorado, while also squeaking out a comeback victory over Arizona a week ago, a game in which they recovered multiple of their own fumbles, including one with under a minute left as they were embarking on a game-tying drive. Freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier has certainly been impressive and poised to this point, but the Utah defense is a completely different animal for a young player. Morgan Scalley’s unit is 13th in success rate allowed, 11th in Early Downs EPA and 11th in quality drive rate allowed (CFB-Graphs), so it’s hard to see BYU having much success in a game where the Cougars won’t have the edge on the line of scrimmage. The Cougars have already struggled with finishing drives, and that isn’t likely to improve on Saturday. I’ll lay the points with the Utes.

Utah vs BYU prediction: Utah Utes -3 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

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Regardless of which team comes out on top in Provo on Saturday, my inclination with this rivalry is to take the under, especially now that the number is nearing 50. As previously mentioned, we can expect Whittingham’s team to focus on controlling the line of scrimmage, and that means a concentrated effort to get Dampier and company going on the ground against this solid BYU defensive front. Conversely, I’m projecting that things will be quite difficult for Bachmeier against a Utes pass defense that is 17th in EPA per dropback and 19th in passing success rate allowed, especially compared to what he faced against Colorado and Arizona. Ultimately, the Cougars can be expected to struggle a bit on offense when stepping up in class, and I could certainly see a feeling-out process in this game as both sides get used to the opponent. Let’s bank on this one being played in the mid-20s on Saturday.

Under 49.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 49.

The Nevada Wolf Pack heads to The ABQ looking to get on track and keep its very faint bowl hopes alive. There is not much margin for error for Nevada down the stretch, and it hasn’t really show much sign of a turnaround. UNR has dropped four in a row, while going 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in the past five games. However, UNM laying double digits isn’t terribly attractive here. Nevada has scored 20 or fewer points in all six games this season, and it is averaging just 13.4 points per game (PPG) in five games against FBS opponents. Defensively, the Pack has allowed 31 or more points in two of the past three games, and that’s the concern with playing the Under.

However, New Mexico’s strength is running the ball, led by the two-headed monster of Scottre Humphrey and Damon Bankston. Running the ball keeps the clock moving, too, and that’s what Under bettors like to see. The Over has cashed in the past three games, but that’s because the defense has allowed 38.0 PPG in the past two games against Boise State and San Jose State. Nevada won’t sniff that kind of production, as it hasn’t shown any coherent game plan on offense all season.

Under 48.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to 47.5.

The Florida State Seminoles hit the road for the west coast looking to pull out of a three-game nosedive. This is an FSU team which beat Alabama at home as a 13.5-point underdog, but one which has also dropped three games in a row at Virginia and home to Miami and Pittsburgh. In fact, it is not only winless inside the conference, but Florida State is 0-3 against the spread (ATS), too. It lost its only previous road game against the Hoos on a Friday night, falling 46-38 in overtime as a 7-point favorite on Sept. 26. It failed to win or cover as a double-digit favorite against Pitt last Saturday, too.

Stanford is a work in progress. The Cardinal have former QB Andrew Luck as its general manager, while leaning upon former NFL QB and head coach Frank Reich as the interim leader. The results have been mixed, going 0-4 SU/ATS on the road, but the Cardinal have scored home wins against both Boston College and San Jose State, going 1-1 ATS in those games. The Over has cashed in three of the past four games, and each of the two home games to date, too, if you’re looking for a same-game parlay (SGP) opportunity. With the way FSU is playing, though, it might be a bit disinterested in the midst of a three-game skid, as expectations have hit an all-time low, and the good feeling of the Bama win has long since subsided.

Stanford +18 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to +17.5.