College Football Picks

The Akron Zips hit the road for Bowling Green on Tuesday night in a battle between 7-loss teams at Doyt L. Perry Stadium, and it’s a game just about pride. Both teams are eliminated from bowl contention, so we’ll have to rely upon recent trends. Bowling Green has won three in a row in this series, while going 7-3 in the past 10. Be careful, though, as Akron has cashed in four of the past five outings. However, since Nov. 17, 2018, Bowling Green has covered both times as a single-digit favorite.

Akron suffered a disappointing 42-35 OT loss at home against Kent State last time out, dashing the hopes of the Zips for going to the postseason. The Zips are just 2-3 SU/ATS in the past five games, too, with the defense allowing 42 points twice in the past four outings. For Eddie George’s Bowling Green team, it’s been a tough past month. This team was 3-3 after a stunning win over Toledo on Oct. 11. However, the team has forgotten how to play offense, averaging just 12.8 PPG in the past four outings, all losses, while also failing to cover in each game, coughing up at least 24 points in each outing. Let’s roll with Akron, as they have QB Ben Finley, RB Jordan Gant, and a functional offense. The Under is 4-0 in the span, too, in case you’re looking for a same-game parlay (SGP) on this meaningless MACtion.

Akron vs Bowling Green prediction: Akron +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Western Michigan Broncos sit all alone in first place heading into the penultimate game against the Northern Illinois Huskies, a team with seven losses and no longer eligible for a bowl. Western Michigan needs a victory to move close to clinching a trip to the MAC Championship Game. It won’t clinch, but it will come very close to punching its ticket. Western Michigan has topped Central Michigan and Ohio in the past two games, both at home, but it lost 26-17 at Miami (Ohio) on Oct. 25, and it was not terribly impressive in a 21-3 win at UMass, one of the worst defenses in the nation. They’re 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS in four road games to date, so taking WMU is a bit of a leap of faith.

Northern Illinois spanked UMass last week, 45-3, covering as a 9-point favorite as the Over (43) connected. They’re won two of the past three games, while covering two times, too. The Huskies are just 1-2 SU/ATS in three home games against FBS opponents, with a 21-7 win over Ball State last time out on Oct. 25 as a 6.5-point favorite. It is still 2-6 ATS in the past eight games. The defense for NIU has been hit or miss, allowing 16 or fewer points in four of the past seven games, while allowing 42 or more points in two of the past four outings. That kind of inconsistency is why NIU is in the shape it’s in, and not going bowling. Look for Western to get the job done on the road, keeping on track for the MAC title game.

WMU vs NIU prediction: Western Michigan -6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -7.

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Part of this week’s MACtion takes us to Kent State where the Golden Flashes will host the Central Michigan Chippewas. The visiting Chipps are very much in the hunt for the MAC title game, sitting at 4-2 in the conference standings in a logjam of 5 teams. Oddly enough, Kent State is only a game back in the standings after upending Akron last week. Kent State, as a reminder, did not win a game last year, fired their coach in April, and was fully expected to finish last in the conference again this year. Yet the Golden Flashes have found a lot of success. I’ll admit, they have beaten me more than once in these MACtion games, but I just don’t see how they are successful, and this one seems like a bad matchup for Kent State. Give me Central Michigan -9.5.

Central Michigan is a run-first offensive scheme. They are very effective on the ground, and Kent State is outside the top 100 in terms of rushing defense. The Chipps ought to be able to run the ball at will in this spot. Also, it is going to be cold on Wednesday, probably in the upper 30s most of the game. In that kind of weather, you want to be the team that can run effectively. As far as Kent State goes, just a reminder that they rank 131 (out of 134) in the nation in terms of total offense, and I don’t see how this team ever scores. Understanding that midweek MACtion games are just plain weird sometimes, the Chipps ought to be able to control this game on the ground against a bad rush defense, and that should set them up nicely to win by 2 scores.

Central Michigan vs Kent State prediction: CMU -9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns travel to meet the Arkansas State Red Wolves in Jonesboro in the standalone game Thursday night. Both of these teams need victories, as they each try to keep their hopes alive for a bowl game. Those extra weeks of practice, and paydays for a bowl, are important to these smaller programs. Louisiana has rebounded from a 2-6 record to win at South Alabama and home to Texas State, getting back into the mix for a bowl. It has scored 36.5 PPG in the past two games, and the offense is good for 31 or more points in four of the past seven outings. They’re 4-2 ATS in the past six games, too.

Ark State has two chances to get a sixth win, punching its ticket to the postseason. It lost to Southern Miss last week, but that halted a four-game win streak. And, Ark State has covered five in a row. The Red Wolves are looking to exorcise some demons against the Ragin’ Cajuns, as Louisiana has won six of the past seven games, while holding a 4-3 ATS edge in that span. Louisiana has scored 27 or more points in each of those six wins, too, so it won’t be easy for the Red Wolves. But, Arkansas State is playing much better football lately, and it should finally be able to get over the hump.

Louisiana vs Arkansas State prediction: Arkansas State -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.

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San Diego State is currently in the driver seat in the Mountain West, but the second spot in the conference title game is still up for grabs. Two of the teams competing for that spot are the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors and the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels, both of whom sit at 4-2 in conference play ahead of their matchup on Friday night. Due to the lack of tiebreakers, both of these teams have to win out to have a chance to play for a conference title – assuming the Aztecs also win out.

The Rainbow Warriors have greatly exceeded expectations this season, especially in conference play. Each of their 4 conference wins came when they were in the underdog role, with a 5th cover in the 2-point loss to Fresno back in September. UNLV, on the other hand, has been all over the place. The Rebels are in the midst of a 2-game winning streak after their 2-game losing streak, but they’ve failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 overall. Three of those 4 non-covers were in the favorite role. When you peel back the curtain even further, you will notice that UNLV hasn’t beaten anyone of note. The Rebels lost to the 2 best conference opponents they played and haven’t beaten a single Mountain West team with a winning record. In fact, they haven’t beaten any team with a winning record this year (at the time of writing, ahead of midweek MACtion). 

UNLV’s struggles against good competition stem from its very poor defense. It ranks 114th in scoring, 130th in total defense, and 132nd in yards per play, and opponents typically find the end zone against this unit once crossing into the red zone more often than not. That will likely spell trouble against the 3rd-most efficient red zone offense in the country in Hawaii. 

A win over the top team in the conference on November 8 restored Hawaii’s chances in the Mountain West, so the Rainbow Warriors should be fired up for this trip to the mainland following a bye that UNLV did not share last week. With a rest and preparation advantage, as well as a defensive advantage, give me Hawaii with that ever-appealing + next to its price. 

Hawaii vs UNLV prediction: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +3 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to +2. 

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