College Football Picks

We have Friday night ACC action as the Clemson Tigers face the Louisville Cardinals. When this game was first scheduled, I am sure people thought it would be important for different reasons, as Clemson was expected to be a playoff contender, not Louisville. But the Tigers have been a massive disappointment, as is well documented, sitting at 5-4 and fighting for mere bowl eligibility. The Cardinals took a big setback last week when they dropped a home game to Cal. That dropped the Cardinals to 7-2 overall, including 2 conference losses, and trailing 5 teams with only a single loss. Louisville will have to work hard to avoid the letdown spot here, but I think they are the better team, so I am backing the Cardinals at home to cover -3.

Perhaps the biggest problem for Clemson this season has been their inability to stop the passing game. They actually rank outside the top 100 in terms of passing yards allowed per game. Louisville should be able to find some big plays in the passing game. I look for that to be the difference in the game. The Louisville defense is stout, and they have held up against good opponents like Miami, Virginia, and Pitt, and I think all of those offenses are more dangerous than this year’s Clemson offense. Playing at home on a Friday night with a short line looks like a good play to me. Give me Louisville -3.

Clemson vs Louisville Prediction: Louisville -3 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

At the time of this writing, over 85% of the early tickets on this game total have been on the under. I think this is a spot where we can fade the majority. Why are people backing the under? I think it has to do with the Clemson defense, and maybe a little to do with the poor Clemson offense. That is, Clemson has held 3 of their last 5 opponents to exactly 10 points—Florida State, BC, and UNC. So the question is this: can they do the same to Louisville? If you think so, then the under is for you. I do not think they can hold Louisville that low, so I am playing the over.

In the other two games, Clemson’s opponents scored much more—SMU posted 35 and Duke 46. I think the Cardinals will fall somewhere in between, but probably in the upper 20s. Louisville should be able to find some big plays in the passing game against a poor Clemson passing defense, and that should be enough to push the scoring. On the other side, the Tiger offense has shown some life after a disastrous start to the season. It is hard to imagine they would finish under 20—a number they have surpassed in every game except the opener against LSU. I am expecting a game more in the 28-24 range, and thus I think this point total is a touch too low. I’ll fade the early bettors and take the over.

Clemson vs Louisville Prediction: Over 50 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

We have a Big Ten tilt between a couple of unfamiliar foes on Friday as the Oregon Ducks are set to host the Minnesota Golden Gophers in a game that doesn’t project to be all that close on paper. However, even though I’m not all that high on this Minnesota team, I’m much more inclined to back the Gophers on the road in what is one of the best situational spots on the board in this Week 12 slate. On one side, the Gophers are in the midst of a solid season, having just qualified for bowl eligibility after defeating Michigan State on November 1. Now, with Minnesota coming off a much-needed bye week prior to this extended road trip, PJ Fleck should have his team prepared to play in what is a natural get-up spot for a rested and ready Gophers side. 

Conversely, the Ducks are in a pretty brutal letdown spot after knocking off Iowa on the road in what was arguably the most important win of its season to this point. Now, Dan Lanning’s side will have to travel all the way to the northwest for a bizarre matchup against a new conference foe that they couldn’t possibly care all that much about, all while staring at a massive potential College Football Playoff elimination game against USC on deck. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Ducks come out pretty flat in a spot in which they could still be a bit hungover from last week’s victory in dramatic fashion at Kinnick Stadium. Oregon certainly looks to be one of the 10-12 best teams in the nation to this point, but it’s also worth considering that the Ducks were extremely banged up a week ago and could be without as many as 5 starters on offense this week if those injuries carry over. With that in mind, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Oregon approached this game with a bit more trepidation and kept things pretty close to the vest. As a result, the Gophers could certainly keep things within the number in a game with a fairly low total, so I’ll certainly take the points with Minnesota on Friday. 

Minnesota vs Oregon prediction: Minnesota +26.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 25.5

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The Air Force Falcons and the UConn Huskies will meet in Connecticut on Saturday after a pair of impressive victories in Week 11. Air Force went to San Jose State and won outright as a 6.5-point underdog, holding what had been a high-powered Spartan offense to just 16 points at home despite the Falcons being outgained by 130+ yards. Meanwhile, UConn came through for us at home as 8.5-point underdogs against Duke. Not only did the Huskies cover, but they won outright in overtime, outgaining the Blue Devils 467-390. 

My numbers show a couple points of value on UConn at the current number of -7, but considering how the Huskies laid an egg at Rice after beating Boston College, I’m hesitant to lay the number here with the Huskies – especially considering Air Force hasn’t lost by more than 3 points in over a month. Instead, my focus is on the total, as I have a hard time seeing either defense limiting scoring in this matchup. 

The Falcons have one of the worst defenses in the entire country. They are 123rd in scoring, allowing 33 points per game against FBS opponents, while sitting 133th in total defense – surrendering more than 450 yards per contest. Air Force has been especially bad against the pass, yielding 288.1 passing yards per game (134th) and 9.9 yards per pass attempt (136th) on the season as a whole. Not much has changed in recent weeks, as the Falcons are 111th in PPA per pass and 136th in passing downs PPA since Week 7. This should be music to the ears of UConn QB Joey Fagnano and the Huskies, as UConn has one of the best passing offenses in the country (believe it or not). In fact, The Huskies are 2nd in passing touchdowns, 3rd in total passing yards, and 18th in passer rating this season. 

On the other side of the ball, UConn’s run defense leaves a bit to be desired, which is a disaster against Air Force’s offense. Being that Air Force is a service academy, the Falcons run the ball at one of the top 3 rates in the country, and they are extremely efficient in doing so. Against a UConn defense that sits 110th in PPA per rush and 115th in standard downs PPA, Air Force should be able to move the ball at will.

It’s also worth mentioning that both of these defenses have been absolutely awful in the red zone. Opponents come away with points on over 90% of red-zone trips against both Air Force and UConn, which should pave the way for plenty of points considering these offenses are top-20 in red-zone frequency and top-35 in red-zone scoring percentage. The total is high for a reason here; expect plenty of points.

Air Force vs UConn prediction: Over 63.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 64.5. 

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The Cincinnati Bearcats host the Arizona Wildcats on Saturday afternoon in a noon kickoff. The Bearcats took their first conference loss of the season last week when they were pushed around by Utah on the road, but that happens to a lot of teams. The Bearcats look to bounce back and keep themselves in the hunt for a conference title when they host the Wildcats. Arizona grabbed a key road win at Kansas last week. For a team that was expected to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 standings, Arizona is a sneaky dangerous team. They are now bowl eligible and in the middle of the pack in the conference. Still, I like the Bearcats to cover at home, and I will take the -6.

I do think Arizona is a sneaky team, and they have some weapons. Their up-tempo offense can put a defense on its heels in a hurry. Cincinnati will need their pass rush to be disruptive, especially if Noah Fifita holds onto the ball too long. My concern for Arizona is its defense. Cincinnati is a team that spreads out the defense horizontally, runs underneath when the numbers dictate, and then beats you over the top when it sees a chance. If Arizona struggles against the run early, Cincinnati could exploit it. The Bearcats have been great at home, and when west coast teams have noon starts on the other side of the country, that typically goes poorly. If this game were in the desert, I might be thinking upset, but not at Cincinnati. Give me the Bearcats to cover and get back on track.

Arizona vs Cincinnati Prediction: Cincinnati Bearcats -6 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This number borders on absurd — not because Kansas State isn’t good, but because it’s a clear reflection of just how far the market has pushed Oklahoma State into irrelevance. Anytime you see a line this inflated between 2 conference opponents, it’s worth asking: should this favorite really be laying this kind of lumber on the road? Probably not.

Kansas State is priced like a steamroller here because of the Pokes’ infamy. The Cats nevertheless have posted 2 blowout wins in their last 3 games and have covered consistently at home and away. The Wildcats stumbled 2 weeks ago at Texas Tech, which is nothing to scoff at, but before that, they routed Kansas by double digits, beat TCU by 13, and handled UCF by 14. They even nearly took down Baylor in Waco. Those results keep their stock high.

Oklahoma State, meanwhile, is the exact opposite story. The Cowboys haven’t covered a game since August. They’ve looked lost, lifeless, and generally stuck in neutral — a team with no head coach or FBS wins to show for its effort and no momentum to lean on. But those are the kinds of teams that create hidden value late in the year. The Cowboys are the quintessential free-rolling underdog: beaten, forgotten, and catching a massively inflated tag because they “look terrible.” We don’t need Oklahoma State to turn into a world-beater overnight — we just need them to show some fight at home against a Kansas State team that’s being priced as though it can do no wrong. Oklahoma State is ugly, but that’s exactly why they’re worth playing. The points are inflated, the market is lopsided, and the setup is pure value.

Michigan’s offense with Bryce Underwood can look flat one week and explosive the next, but when it clicks, it scores in bunches. They’ve cleared 24 points in 6 of their wins this season, and Northwestern’s defense, while competent, isn’t built to withstand 60 minutes of Michigan’s physicality.

The Wildcats average 21 points per game and allow 19, while Michigan scores 29 and gives up 17. The math doesn’t scream fireworks, but if Michigan clears 24 and covers while doing so — then this game clears the number comfortably. We are not in the score prediction business but there is a pathway to perhaps the Maize and Blue doing most of the heavy lifting here by their optics and metrics alone. We are taking the over on a deflated number.

This is less about backing Notre Dame and more about fading Pittsburgh. The Panthers have been one of the hottest teams in the country, winning 5 straight and covering all 5 in the process. That streak has vaulted them into the Top 25 and put them squarely in the College Football Playoff discussion. The talking heads are all saying the same thing — that the road to the ACC and possibly the playoff runs through Pittsburgh.

The logic is easy to buy into. Pitt faces Notre Dame this week, Georgia Tech next week, and then closes the season against Miami. If the Panthes run the table and win the ACC, they’re in the playoff. The market is leaning into that narrative, but the number tells a different story. Despite the hype, despite both teams being ranked, Notre Dame is still laying double digits. That’s not a mistake — it’s a message. The Fighting Irish just demolished Navy 49–10, but the market still refuses to believe they can dominate a ranked opponent like Pittsburgh. The oddsmakers disagree. When a ranked team catching points looks “too good to be true,” it usually is. The Panthers have become a public underdog, and that’s not a role we’re eager to buy into. The side says Notre Dame.

The undefeated Texas A&M Aggies will welcome in the South Carolina Gamecocks this Saturday as they look for their 10th win of the season. Texas A&M has a record of 9-0 overall and 6-0 in SEC games, and the Aggies are coming off a 38-17 road win against Missouri. Texas A&M’s offense proved to be too much for the Missouri defense, who needed to play a great game with their starting quarterback out. The Aggies were able to cover a spread of -6.5 behind a dominant day from their offensive line. They ran for a total of 243 yards and 3 touchdowns on 39 attempts. The big men wore out the Missouri defenders as Texas A&M’s running game grew more dominant as the game moved along.

South Carolina has a record of 3-6 and an SEC record of 1-6. The Gamecocks have lost their last 4 games including a 30-14 road loss to Ole Miss back on November 1st. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers had a tough evening, throwing for 180 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Sellers is a talented quarterback, but it is difficult for him to find success if his team can’t keep the pressure off of him. Sellers was pressured all day, taking a total of 6 sacks.

Texas A&M may be one of the most complete teams in college football this season. Their offense is led by quarterback Marcel Reed and running back Rueben Owens II. Reed has thrown for 2193 yards and 21 touchdowns this season, and Owens has run for 542 yards and 5 touchdowns. Both have succeeded behind an excellent offensive line that ranks in the top-10 of most metrics. The Aggies also have a top defense that only allows an average of 189 passing yards per game in a competitive SEC Conference. My eyes are on the Texas A&M defense for this matchup. The Aggies are currently a top-five team in college football in the category of havoc. If we break down that ranking more, they are top-5 in tackles for a loss, and top-10 in rushing the passer. Their defense has sacked the opposing quarterback a total of 34 times this season, led by defensive end Cashius Howell with 10.5 sacks.

It could be another long game for Sellers. South Carolina has shown they are not equipped to protect their quarterback and the football, ranking 131st in havoc allowed. I have the Aggies as a heavy home favorite.

South Carolina vs Texas A&M prediction: Texas A&M Aggies -19 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Indiana Hoosiers host the Wisconsin Badgers in an early afternoon B1G tilt. The Hoosiers look to continue their quest for a national title and seem to be on an inevitable collision course with Ohio State in the conference title game. They narrowly averted a disaster Saturday with a dramatic comeback win to survive Penn State. The Badgers also logged a win last week, sneaking up on Washington at Camp Randall to grab their first conference win. I’m not sure I am ready to call that momentum for the Badgers, especially rolling into Bloomington on Saturday afternoon. If you are going to play the spread, it is a ridiculous -29.5, but the number is just so absurd that I feel like I have to play it. Give me Hoosiers to win by 30.

Wisconsin is having a dreadful season. The Badgers currently rank 133 out of 136 in total offense. That should never happen with a major conference team. They have been blanked by both Ohio State and Iowa, but even when they playing lesser defenses, they haven’t had a ton of success. They are a run-heavy team, indeed almost a run-only team, and Indiana ranks #6 against the run. The Badgers may well get shut out again, and every time they have played a top tier opponent this season, they have looked completely overmatched. Meanwhile, Indiana is not looking for drama after last week, and you can bet they are well aware of the Ohio State result against Wisconsin, which was 34-0. My guess is Cignetti sees that as the bar he needs to beat.

Wisconsin vs Indiana Prediction: Indiana Hoosiers -29.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Arkansas Razorbacks have dropped 7 straight games while LSU is on a 1-4 stretch in their last 5. It’s a matchup of two SEC programs spiraling downhill featuring mid-season head coach firings. LSU managed just 9 points in the Tigers’ first game without Brian Kelly on the sideline, and the offense has been a problem altogether this season. The Tigers rank 134th in FBS in points per quality drive and rank 125th in rushing yards per game (101.0). 

While the 2025 season has gone about as poorly as any Arkansas fan could have imagined, the Razorbacks’ offense is much better than the 2-7 record shows for. Arkansas ranks top-15 in both passing success rate and rushing success rate. Furthermore, Arkansas ranks 9th in quality drive rate and has been excellent at finishing those quality drives, ranking 7th in red zone offense. The LSU offense isn’t built to pull away with a big lead, especially against a high-octane offense like the Razorbacks possess. I’ll take Arkansas to cover on the road.

Arkansas vs LSU prediction: Arkansas Razorbacks +6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable down to +5.5 (-110).

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The West Virginia Mountaineers will travel this Saturday to take on the Arizona State Sun Devils in a Big 12 matchup. West Virginia has a record of 4-6 and a conference record of 2-5. The Mountaineers have won 2 straight games, including a 29-22 win over Colorado last weekend. The Mountaineers won the game behind freshman quarterback Scotty Fox Jr., who threw for 202 and 1 touchdown. West Virginia has now won 2 out of the 3 starts by Fox., as he led WVU to a win against Houston with his one loss being 23-17 against TCU.

Arizona State has a record of 6-3 and a conference record of 4-2. The Sun Devils are coming off a 24-19 win against the Iowa State Cyclones, a game in which quarterback Sam Leavitt missed due to injury. Jeff Sims stepped in and threw for 177 yards and 1 touchdown. Sims won the game mostly with his legs, running for 228 yards and 2 touchdowns. The mark set a quarterback rushing record for Arizona State’s school history. The Sun Devils will need another good performance from Sims with Leavitt out for the remainder of the season. 

This will be an intriguing matchup of quarterbacks that did not start the season under center for either school, but have both taken control of the offense in exciting fashion. Fox is much younger and more inexperienced than Sims. Fox is a true freshman, while Sims is in his 6h season of college football.

There should be a good amount of ground game in this matchup. In its 2 wins over Houston and Colorado, West Virginia ran the football efficiently and consistently. Head coach Rich Rodriguez has always favored the running game, and West Virginia currently runs the football 57% of the time – ranking 27th in nationally with 4.5 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Arizona State will need to rely on Sims’ legs again with receiver Jordyn Tyson out with an injury.

This game will come down to whoever can tackle better on defense. Sims should be able to find success against a defense that has struggled in the past against dual-threat quarterbacks. Earlier this season, West Virginia gave up 38 points to BYU in a loss, and 48 in a loss to Utah. Both of those teams run a high number of designed quarterback runs and found a lot of success against West Virginia. I expect Arizona State to find similar success.

West Virginia vs Arizona State prediction: Arizona State Sun Devils -11.5 (-105) is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Sixth-ranked Texas Tech will continue its quest to the College Football Playoff this Saturday when it welcome in its Big 12 opponent, the UCF Knights. Texas Tech has a record of 9-1 this season and 6-1 in the Big 12, and the Red Raiders have won their last 3 games – including a 29-7 win at home last week against BYU. The spirits were high in Lubbock, Texas last weekend. College Gameday caused a lot of excitement on campus, and it paid off with a convincing win against previously unbeaten BYU. Texas Tech’s defense was dominant, holding a high-scoring offense scoreless for the first 3 quarters while limiting BYU to only 255 total yards of offense.

UCF will be the next team to challenge the Red Raider defense in Lubbock. The Knights have a record of 4-5 this season and a conference record of 1-5 in the Big 12. The Knights have lost 4 of their last 5 games, and their last loss came at the hand of Houston 30-27. Junior quarterback Tayven Jackson was held to 136 yards passing and 1 interception. The UCF defense kept them in the game, forcing 4 turnovers, but overall the offense didn’t do enough to pick up the win. 

The question for this game is whether or not Texas Tech can continue its dominant play, and if the Red Raiders will come into this game with the same intensity they did last week. Texas Tech is for real and you should see them later this year in the CFP. The Red Raiders haven’t just won games, but they have dominated in their victories with an average winning margin of 33 points per game. To show just how well rounded Texas Tech has been, the Red Raiders rank top-5 in points scored on offense, scoring defense, and takeaways per game. The only other team to rank that high in all 3 categories was the 2008 national-champion Florida Gators. This game will be the final home game of the season for the Red Raiders before they finish their season on the road. That means it will be the last time for a number of seniors on this roster to play in front of their home crowd. I expect this to inspire Texas Tech to finish strong on their home field against a mediocre UCF team.

UCF vs Texas Tech prediction: Texas Tech Red Raiders -23.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Iowa’s reputation is built on defense and field position, while USC’s calling card is offense. We don’t know if the former translates but we are certain the latter will. If the Trojans do cover, it’s likely because they turn this into the kind of up-tempo game that forces Iowa to trade scores. Which is not a good look for the Hawkeyes, which is why we like the cover. USC’s defense has been porous enough to allow the Hawkeyes to contribute, and that keeps this number in reach if that happens. If Iowa’s defense stays on the bus because they are reeling from last week’s heartbreaker, we cover this easy. But the question remains which Iowa team shows up to Los Angeles? We know what we get with the Men of Troy and lean into offense, thus going over.

If USC controls the pace and Iowa scores just enough to keep it honest, the scoreboard will cooperate. Moreover, backing the Over correlates with siding with the chalk, so we have that going for us here too. Take the Over.

Iowa vs USC prediction: Over 49.5 (-110), available at time of publishing. Playable to Over 50.

The Miami Hurricanes host the NC State Wolfpack on Saturday afternoon in what should be a gorgeous day on South Beach. The Wolfpack will be riding high after their upset win over Georgia Tech 2 weeks ago, one of a couple of results that have made a total mess of the ACC standings. Miami is hanging on by a thread to its playoff chances, with 2 losses already and a tough road game at Pitt to finish the season still to go. This should be a spot where Miami leaves no doubt, as the ‘Canes certainly can’t afford to let NC State hang around here and risk a loss. I’ll take the Hurricanes, but admittedly, I don’t love this number and fear that it leaves the back door wide open.

For me, this pick comes down to the NC State defense. That defense is just dreadful. The Wolfpack rank 120^th overall in total defense, and 2nd-to-last in passing yards allowed. They have played some pass-happy teams—UVA, Pitt—but they have played some run-heavy teams too, yet they have been gashed in the air by everyone. Carson Beck should have a career day against this leaky pass defense. The concern here is that the Pack can score through the air, but with a defense that has allowed 36, 53, and 36 to its last 3 opponents, I just cannot bring myself to back NC State on the road in this spot. I’ll take Miami -15.5.

NC State vs Miami Prediction: Miami Hurricanes -15.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Oklahoma Sooners earned a massive victory at Tennessee in Week 10, and then were able to enjoy the fruits of their labor during a bye week ahead of Saturday’s trip to Tuscaloosa to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Tide have been very strong at home this year, winning every game by double digits – including last week’s 20-9 win over LSU. Furthermore, they may be playing with a little bit of revenge on their minds, as their Week 13 loss to the Sooners last year is likely what kept the Tide out of the College Football Playoff. 

I’m siding with the home favorite for a few reasons aside from the revenge angle. First, Alabama has a significant advantage when it comes to turnover margin and penalties. The Tide play much cleaner than the Sooners, sitting 4th nationally in turnover margin and 33rd in penalties per game against FBS opponents this season – compared to Oklahoma’s rankings 98th and 103rd, respectively. Second, Alabama’s defense has been rock-solid at home, as the Tide have yet to allow anyone to surpass 20 points on their home turf. While I realize the Tide have struggled against mobile quarterbacks for the last couple of years, I believe the Sooners will need more than just John Mateer’s legs. Does Oklahoma have a strong enough passing game to stay within the number, much less win the game? Considering the Sooners are 125th in passing downs PPA and 120th in PPA per pass since Week 7, maybe not. 

Finally, Alabama’s passing attack should thrive here, as the Tide are strong enough up front to neutralize Oklahoma’s relentless pressure and blitz packages. Not to mention, the Sooners have already shown some vulnerabilities against strong passing offenses recently. In fact, Oklahoma is 126th on passing downs PPA allowed over the last 5 weeks, which means the Sooners could have trouble getting off the field on third downs against an Alabama offense that is top-12 nationally in third-down conversion rate this season. Look for the Tide to ultimately win this game by at least a touchdown.

Oklahoma vs Alabama prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide -5.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to -6.5.

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Despite how efficient Alabama’s passing attack can be, I have been weary of betting overs in any game involving the Crimson Tide. Alabama has been able to string together 5+ minute drives as much as any other team in the country, which limits possessions and hence caps scoring upside. However, there’s been a pattern in Alabama’s games when it comes to the over/under. Any FBS matchup with a total of 49.5 or higher has resulted in an under, while every FBS matchup with a total 49 and below has gone over.

I like that trend to continue in this matchup, specifically because I expect Alabama’s passing attack to find success against an Oklahoma defense that’s been picked apart by better passing offenses as the year has gone on. Meanwhile, Alabama has notably had a difficult time limiting mobile quarterbacks. 

For what it’s worth, these are 2 of the best red-zone offenses in the country, as Oklahoma and Alabama are both top-15 in red-zone touchdown rate – punching it into the end zone on more than 73% of red-zone trips. Look for points in this one. 

Oklahoma vs Alabama prediction: Over 45.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to 47.

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In case you missed it, Penn State suffered one of the most gut-wrenching losses of the season last week. As a 13.5-point underdog, the Nittany Lions nearly shocked the college football world by taking undefeated No. 2 Indiana to the brink in Happy Valley—until a dramatic final drive ended in one of the best catches you’ll ever see. Omar Cooper’s highlight-reel grab sealed a 27–24 Hoosiers win, and with it, broke Penn State’s heart. Losses like that leave a mark. To rebound from such an emotional gut punch is hard enough; to then go on the road and lay points immediately afterward is even tougher. And that’s exactly what the Nittany Lions are being asked to do here.

Enter Michigan State. This is the Battle for the Land Grant Trophy—the historic arch-rivalry of both PSU and Sparty. Both teams sit at 3–6, but the circumstances couldn’t be more different. Penn State just had its heart ripped out. Michigan State, meanwhile, is at home, motivated, and staring at the perfect opportunity to catch its rival in a vulnerable spot. Recent history paints an ugly picture. The Spartans have lost the last 2 meetings by a combined score of 87–16, and that’s exactly why this line looks the way it does. The market expects more of the same. But this time around, the setup is different. Penn State is wounded, both emotionally and physically, and the Spartans know it. For Michigan State, this is the season. It’s a shot at redemption, a chance to salvage pride, and an opportunity to turn the tide in this series. Motivation will be high, and with a touchdown cushion at home against a fragile opponent, that’s more than enough to make Sparty live here.

Penn State vs Michigan State prediction: Michigan State Spartans +7 (-110), available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

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The Virginia Cavaliers are coming off their worst offensive performance of the season posting 9 points against Wake Forest while the Duke Blue Devils are in a bounce-back spot themselves after a rough loss on the road against UConn. Now, recency bias would make it difficult to rely on either side in this one. However, Virginia has continuously skated by with unlikely outcomes against a lesser schedule than what Duke has faced in 2025. A loss against UConn isn’t a great look, but the Blue Devils have a top-20 offensive unit in terms of yards per game and average over 35 points per game.

Furthermore, Duke ranks 9th in net points per drive while the Virginia defense ranks 95th in points per quality drive. Duke finishes drives, and Virginia struggles with stalling them. Offensively, Virginia has had its moments but haven’t shown much reason to believe they can keep up with the Blue Devils’ high-octane unit. Virginia’s luck seems to have run out, and I’ll back Duke to cover at home.

Virginia vs Duke prediction: Duke Blue Devils -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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The game of the week will be played in Athens on Saturday night when the Texas Longhorns visit the Georgia Bulldogs in what is a rematch of the 2024 SEC Championship – a game Georgia won despite Carson Beck being knocked out with an injury. In fact, Texas was 0-2 against Georgia last year, and neither game was in Athens. This time around, while the Longhorns seek revenge, they will be in a true road environment – which is not where they have thrived this season. In 4 true road games, Texas is 2-2 SU with losses at Ohio State and Florida. The 2 wins were both in overtime against teams that sit in the bottom half of the SEC in Kentucky and Mississippi State. 

Although Georgia’s home winning streak was snapped by Alabama earlier this year, the Bulldogs have been status quo in Athens since – posting a 21-point win over Kentucky and a come-from-behind, 8-point win over Ole Miss. Given Texas’ deficiencies on the road, I think Georgia’s home-field advantage may be even greater than oddsmakers can quantify, especially when you consider this is a night game. 

I like the way Georgia’s offense has been trending of late. The Bulldogs are 18th in PPA per play and 31st in points scored per quality drive outside of garbage time since Week 7, and Gunner Stockton continues to improve under center – most notably as a passer. He has thrown 9 touchdowns to just 1 interception over his last 3 games, and he’s shown that he’s plenty capable of handling pressure and opposing blitzes – which is huge against Texas’ defense. 

Given Texas’ body of work in true road games this year, I have a difficult time trusting the Longhorns to stay within the number. The ‘Horns also have struggled with red-zone efficiency dating back to last year, which will do them no favors in Sanford Stadium – especially opposite of a Georgia offense that has been so good at finding the end zone once crossing the opposing 20. Give me the ‘Dawgs.

Texas vs Georgia prediction: Georgia Bulldogs -5.5 at the time of publishing. Playable to -6.5.

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If I’m going to give credit to Gunner Stockton and Georgia’s offense for trending in the right direction, then I have to mention that Arch Manning and the Longhorns have looked better offensively in their last 2 games – even if the win at Mississippi State required some 4th-quarter heroics. The Longhorns should continue to have some offensive success in this game, as I haven’t really been impressed with Georgia’s defense compared to what we’re used to seeing from this bunch. Surrendering 41 points to Tennessee and 35 to Ole Miss proves that the Bulldogs can be exposed, and since they haven’t been particularly strong when it comes to generating a pass rush, Manning should have time to find his receivers for big gains – especially with a healthy offensive line. 

On the other side, Texas’ defense is the best stop-unit that Georgia will face all year, but I have no desire to step in front of Georgia’s offense – nor do I have the desire to step in front of Kirby Smart. Like Texas, the Bulldogs are healthy at the point of attack, which should help negate Texas’ pass rush and give Stockton time in the pocket to find Zachariah Branch or his talented tight ends. I like Georgia to clear 30 points here, so I lean to the over in Athens on Saturday night.

Texas vs Georgia prediction: Over 48.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 49.

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SEC play rolls along on Saturday night when the Mississippi State Bulldogs head to Columbia, Missouri to take on the Tigers. Both the Bulldogs and the Tigers come into this game following 20+ point losses last week, as MSU lost 41-21 at home against Georgia while Missouri lost at home to Texas A&M 38-17. Neither loss is one that either team should hang its head over, but the respective favorites cruised to wins and covers in those games largely because Mississippi State and Missouri were ineffective offensively. 

The quarterback situation is murky on both sidelines in this matchup. Missouri’s Beau Pribula is out for at least the regular season, while Mississippi State’s Blake Shapen was limited with an injury against Georgia and is questionable for this upcoming weekend. As such, a pair of freshmen have been thrust into significant roles. Missouri’s Matt Zollers was okay against Vanderbilt but looked overmatched against Texas A&M last week, and he doesn’t have the same rushing upside as Pribula. Meanwhile, Mississippi State’s Kamario Taylor is more of a runner than a passer. 

With the uncertain quarterback situation on both sides, it’s tough to get a grasp on this game. However, I think we can expect both teams to have a run-heavy approach – especially if Shapen misses the game – which would mean a running clock for a majority of this contest. Hence, I’m going to lean to the under here. Look for Mississippi State’s Fluff Bothwell and Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy to have significant roles in what could be an ugly offensive showing from both teams.

Mississippi State vs Missouri prediction: Under 51.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 51. 

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In what is arguably the most important game in the Big 12 on Saturday, this matchup between the TCU Horned Frogs and BYU Cougars is one could decide if the latter makes the conference title game in a few weeks. And while Sonny Dykes’ team let me down by surrendering a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter of a loss to Iowa State a week ago, this was still a box score that dramatically favored the Horned Frogs. After all, TCU outgained the Cyclones by nearly 200 yards and finished with nearly double the amount of first downs. If it wasn’t for 3 turnovers and allowing a punt return touchdown midway through the fourth quarter, the Horned Frogs likely win and cover the number at home a week ago. With that in mind, it’s not a shock that TCU’s metrics suggest that the Horned Frogs are better than their record, and I have no problem getting back on the horse with Josh Hoover and an offense that clearly looked to be much healthier following the bye week. This is still a top 20 unit in 3rd and 4th down success rate, quality drives created and points per drive, so points should be available to TCU on Saturday. 

Regardless of how the offense looks, Hoover shouldn’t have to score 40 points to cover this number, especially with the TCU defense grading out very well against the run (13th in EPA per rush, 26th in rushing success rate allowed) and with BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier currently in the midst of his worst run of form of the season following a terrible showing against Texas Tech. There’s no doubt that while BYU is certainly a good team — one that has outperformed preseason expectations by a significant margin — the Cougars are pretty fortunate to only have one loss at this point, as it’s gone through what has been a gauntlet of a Big 12 schedule thus far. You have to wonder if BYU is running out of gas a bit as the season winds down, and the Cougars are now down to 70th in passing success rate on offense, to go along with metrics outside the top 50 in a number of key areas, including points per drive. The TCU defense has been playing like a top 25 unit of late, so as long as Hoover plays mistake-free football, the Horned Frogs should keep this one close and even potentially win outright in Provo.  

TCU vs BYU prediction: TCU +6.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +4.5

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One of the final games of the night takes us to Fresno State. where the Bulldogs will host the Wyoming Cowboys. Wyoming comes to town off an open week, hoping to finish the season strong. The Cowbos are 4-5 at this point, and they have struggled to a 1-3 road record. Fresno also had last weekend off, but the Bulldogs smoked Boise State at Boise in their last game, 30-7. That makes this number a little surprising, as I expected the books to favor Fresno a bit more – especially at home. But the low point total also anticipates a slow, low-scoring contest. Still, I like the Bulldogs here and will take them to cover -3.5.

The biggest issue in this game is that both teams are working with backup QBs. Wyoming lost its starter to a knee injury in the last game, and will now turn to Landon Sims to run the offense. He was 1 for 3 for 3 yards in relief last time out, but the one completion was a touchdown. Fresno benched EJ Warner a couple weeks ago and went with Carson Conklin instead. Conklin got the win against Boise, but he was 10 for 21 and only 35 yards, so do with that what you will. I think this game pretty clearly comes down to who can run the ball, and both teams will aim to do that primarily. The difference though is that Fresno State is a much tougher defense in general, and especially against the run, and I think that is the difference in the game. I will take the Bulldogs.

Wyoming vs Fresno St Prediction: Fresno St Bulldogs -3.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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