College Football Parlays

The Liberty Flames were perfect in their first season in Conference USA. Not only did they secure a perfect 8-0 record in conference, but the Flames won all 12 of their games and will host this conference championship. Liberty averaged a conference-best 38.1 points per game against CUSA opponents, and the defense was third best – yielding just 21.8. In fact, the Flames scored 42 touchdowns in conference, which is 10 better than the second best offense. They were +19 in touchdown margin, while no other Conference USA team was better than +8.

New Mexico State finished the regular season with just 3 losses, but all of those losses were before its late-September bye week. Furthermore, its lone conference loss was at Liberty in Week 2, a game in which Liberty out-gained New Mexico State 526-339 and won 33-17. Following their bye week, the Aggies did not lose a game. They even pulled a surprising upset in Auburn 2 weeks ago – a week before Auburn gave Alabama all it could handle. New Mexico State had the best scoring defense in Conference USA, allowing just 18.4 points per game against conference opponents. However, the Aggies finished the regular season 6th in scoring within the conference and averaged nearly 13 points less than the Flames.

The Aggies have been nothing short of impressive recently, but I do not expect this game to be much different than the first. Liberty should control the line of scrimmage, as the Flames are 1st nationally in line yards in non-garbage time since Week 8. The Liberty offensive line also ranks 5th in stuff rate and 6th in power success in its last 5 games. The success on the line is the reason the Liberty rushing attack is so good. The Flames have the second-best PPA per rush since Week 8 along with the best rushing success rate in the nation over that time. New Mexico State will likely struggle to stop Liberty’s run given the Aggies are outside the top 95 in most defensive line stats including 129th in stuff rate in non-garbage time since the middle of October. Their failure to control the line leads to a run defense that ranks 70th in explosives, 81st in success rate and 106th in PPA per rush. 

New Mexico State quarterback Diego Pavia has been incredibly impressive this season with over 2,700 passing yards, more than 800 rushing yards and 28 total touchdowns. However, Liberty’s Kaidon Salter has been equally as impressive, if not moreso. Salter has more than 2,400 passing yards and almost 900 rushing yards while accounting for 40 total touchdowns. He also has the 2 best running backs in the conference per PFF’s rushing grade with him in the backfield, presenting a true 3-headed monster that will be difficult for the Aggies to defend. Look for Salter and the elite Liberty rushing attack to control the line of scrimmage and early downs throughout this game, and for Salter to utilize his efficiency via the play-action pass to find big gains through the air to receivers CJ Daniels and Treon Sibley. Lay it with Liberty, as the Flames seek their first undefeated season at the FBS level.

Liberty Flames -10.5 at the time of publishing. Playable to -12.

We are getting a rematch of what was my Game of the Year back in October as the Washington Huskies and Oregon Ducks will clash in the final installment of the Pac-12 Championship Game on Friday. However, while the Ducks have looked absolutely dominant in the weeks since, the same can’t be said of a Washington team that is 2-4 against the number in its last 6 contests and has just gone through a brutal gauntlet of a November schedule, including close wins over USC, Oregon State, Utah and Washington State. This has prompted a pretty dramatic line move in the market, as Oregon is laying 9.5-10 points (be sure to shop around) after being a 3-point road underdog in the first meeting. It’s easy to see why the market is in love with the Ducks, as there’s isn’t much wrong you can say about this Oregon offense. Heisman favorite Bo Nix leads an efficient and explosive unit, with the Ducks sitting 1st at rush success rate and net points per drive, plus 3rd in passing success rate and top 5 in EPA per pass & per rush (CFB-Graphs). Nix has a plethora of weapons at his disposal and his offensive line should see consistent success against a Washington front that has struggled mightily at defending the run this season. The Ducks should score plenty of points here, but I can’t quite get there with this number at over a touchdown.

There is one thing that Washington can hang its hat on in this game and that is an explosive passing attack that can generate big plays at any moment. Yes, Michael Penix Jr. hasn’t looked like himself for at least 4 of the last 6 games, but it’s been revealed that he was battling through injury and dealing with flu-like symptoms in a few recent contests, so that may have been something to do with it. As it stands, I expect Penix and this elite group of wide receivers to raise their level against a Ducks defense that is 121st in explosiveness allowed over the last month. Oregon has the better defense in this game, particularly against the pass, but we have seen the Ducks surrender plenty of yards and points against the likes of Texas Tech and USC more recently. The Huskies generated plays of 20+ yards on every touchdown drive in the first meeting and I see no reason why that wouldn’t hold this time around. I also expect Washington to be playing from behind for most of the contest, which will lead to more deep shots as Ryan Grubb’s offense looks to strike quickly.

Oregon should stay ahead of the chains throughout this contest, leading to an effort where I see the Ducks putting up at least 35 points. With that being said, I still feel like the coaching advantage lies squarely with the Huskies, which wouldn’t make me feel comfortable about laying double digits with a coach in Dan Lanning that I’ve yet to see win a game of this magnitude. As an Oregon futures holder, I do think the Ducks win this game by around a touchdown, but that backdoor will be wide open for Penix and co. This should be a fun one in Las Vegas, so let’s back the underdog for the second straight season in the Pac-12 Championship.

Washington +10 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +9. 

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Texas’ lone loss this year was a neutral site game against Oklahoma, who was able to drive 75 yards in 5 plays and 62 seconds – ultimately scoring the go-ahead touchdown with just 15 seconds remaining. Fortunately for the Longhorns, there were no undefeated Big 12 teams in the conference. In fact, Texas is the only 1-loss Big 12 team. As the number 1 seed in the conference, the Longhorns will play the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the Big 12 Championship – who earned their place with a tie-breaking head-to-head win over in-state rival Oklahoma about a month ago.

The Longhorns have the best scoring defense in the Big 12, yielding just 18.1 points per game against conference opponents. Furthermore, the Longhorns allowed just 19 touchdowns in 9 conference games, which is 7 better than the second-best defense in the league. The key to slowing down Oklahoma State’s offense is to limit running back Ollie Gordon’s success on the ground and force Alan Bowman and the Cowboys into obvious passing situations. Texas should be able to do that. The Longhorns boast a strong rush defense that is top 5 nationally in power success and line yards in non-garbage time since Week 8 along with a top 20 rating in stuff rate. Their success in the trenches makes it extremely difficult to run against, as shown by their top 10 marks in PPA per rush, rush success and rush explosives allowed in the last 6 weeks. In fact, Texas held Kansas State to just 30 rushing yards a few weeks ago, and the Wildcats are top 15 nationally in rushing – averaging nearly 200 yards per game on the ground. If Gordon cannot get going, Bowman is going to be faced with extra pressure, which is not a good thing considering he leads the conference in turnover-worthy plays. For what it’s worth, Oklahoma State is 93rd in red zone touchdown rate this season and has scored less than 4 points per trip to the green zone since Week 8. Limiting their rushing attack would likely make the Cowboys less efficient in scoring situations.

Texas tends to leave a bit on the table offensively from time to time, but the Longhorns should have more than enough success against Oklahoma State’s defense. The Longhorns have the 7th-most scoring opportunities nationally in non-garbage time since Week 8, and the Cowboys are not going to limit those trips inside the 40 given they have yielded the 2nd most opposing green zone trips in the last 6 weeks. Oklahoma State’s defense is 88th in PPA per pass and 95th in PPA per rush since the middle of October, so the Longhorns should be able to use their talent advantage to score when given the opportunity – especially in the red zone where Oklahoma State yields a bottom 40 touchdown rate. The number is sizable for a conference championship game, but the Longhorns are loaded with talent and are motivated to win convincingly so they are not left out of the College Football Playoff. With the expectation they limit Gordon on the ground, the Longhorns should win by margin and be crowned Big 12 champions for the first time since the conference title game returned in 2017 and the final time before leaving for the SEC. Lay it with Texas.

Texas Longhorns -14.5 at the time of publishing. Playable to -15.

Last week I faded Tulane at home in what I thought was a game between a couple of evenly matched teams. Even after the Green Wave took care of business in that matchup, there were a lot of fortunate bounces that went their way in that game, including 5 turnovers from UTSA. Those mistakes either stalled potential scoring drives for the Roadrunners or set up Tulane with short fields where the Green Wave were able to capitalize and turn those opportunities into points. For a team that finished +4 in turnover margin, Tulane still didn’t manage to outgain UTSA and finished in the 17th percentile in EPA per dropback among all teams that week (GameOnPaper). They also allowed UTSA to run for 200 yards, averaging over 5 yards per rush in the contest and stuffing just 11% of all Roadrunner rushes. The Green Wave clearly got away with playing a UTSA team that was off their game, but I don’t expect that to be the case this time around.

SMU has been a well-oiled machine for most of the season. There’s a reason why I touted them preseason to win this conference at over 3/1 odds, and the Power 5 talent and depth the Mustangs have on both sides of the ball is impressive. This is a team that used the transfer portal to their advantage, snagging players from the likes of Alabama, Texas A&M and more en route to a team talent composite that ranks in the top 30 in the nation per 247Sports. Even on the road, I’d make them a favorite in this game if starting quarterback Preston Stone was playing, but he’ll miss this game (and the rest of the season) with a broken fibula. However, backup QB Kevin Jennings has seen substantial fourth quarter playing time this season, as SMU has recorded plenty of blowout victories in conference play. The only non-blowout Jennings played in this season was a recent 36-31 win over Rice where Stone exited in the early fourth quarter due to possible concussion symptoms. Jennings played just two series’, but he did complete 4-of-6 passes for 37 yards and led the Mustangs on a crucial field goal drive in the victory. This is an offense that should work regardless of who is under center, as Rhett Lashlee’s group is top 40 in rushing and passing success rate, 11th in early downs EPA and 11th in net points per drive (CFB-Graphs).

Even with the injury to Stone, I still love the value we’re getting with SMU here. This is a team that is extremely balanced on both sides of the ball and should be able to shut down the run game of Tulane and force Michael Pratt beat them consistently in the passing game. Pratt is one of my favorite QBs at the Group of 5 level, but something has been off with him of late. He only completed 40% of his throws last week and UTSA doesn’t have the talent up front that this SMU defense has (21st in rushing success rate, 17th in net points per drive). Look for the Mustangs to even the score by forcing a turnover or two and I’d expect this one to come down to the wire. I’ve got the ‘dog winning outright here, so I’ll certainly take the free points with SMU on Saturday.

SMU +4.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5.

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The ACC Championship features the undefeated Florida State Seminoles and the surprise Louisville Cardinals. We all expected the Noles to be here when the season began, but not many people expected Louisville to be here. In a conference with Miami, North Carolina, Duke, and Clemson, the Cardinals emerged after a tremendous season. The key story of this game, of course, is whether Florida State can close out an undefeated season and crack the College Football Playoffs. They have played the last couple of weeks without their star quarterback, Jordan Travis, and freshman QB Tate Rodemaker has been forced into service instead. Many prognosticators have been predicting the fall of the Seminoles for a few weeks now, but so far, the Noles have been just fine. This team is more complete than that, and they were never just a flashy quarterback. With yet another week of experience, practice, and game planning, I expect Rodemaker to take another step forward, and I think the Noles will win this one.

The defenses are going to be a huge key to this game. For Louisville, the rushing defense is elite—everyone has struggled on the ground against the Cardinals. That will mean that FSU will need to throw effectively to be successful. For the Seminoles, it is the passing defense that is elite. The rush defense is pretty darn solid too, but Louisville’s best chance of success will likely be on the ground and with the legs of star RB Jawhar Jordan. Still, both defenses will look to set the tone in this game. In my mind, the Florida State passing game will eventually be the difference here. The Noles may well have the most dangerous pair of receivers in the country in Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson. I expect the FSU coaching staff to script up several ways to get the ball into their hands, and thus let their big play guys be big play guys. The Noles’ best offensive weapons pair nicely with the weaker part of Louisville’s defense, and I expect that to be the difference in the game in Charlotte. Look for the Noles to punch their ticket, and I am all for this line as long as it stays below a field goal.

Florida State -2.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing; playable at that number