College Basketball Picks

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The Big 12 Tournament begins on Tuesday in Kansas City with a 4-pack of games between those at the bottom of the conference standings. Among them will be a #9 vs #16 battle between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the Utah Utes. Winners in 6 of their last 8 games, including victories over Kansas and BYU, the Bearcats have been one of the hotter teams in the country of late. Their calling card is their tenacious defense, which sits 8th nationally in adjusted efficiency over the course of the entire season (BartTorvik), but their offense has woken up in a major way of late, sitting 24th in efficiency over the last month while knocking down 43% of premier shots. 

Utah’s season has been forgettable to say the least. The Utes are just 10-21 this season and 2-16 in the Big 12, with their only wins being over TCU at home and West Virginia on the road. They played the Bearcats once this season – on the road – and were actually competitive thanks to 16 offensive rebounds and 9 made threes. However, I consider the former an anomaly, as the Utes are 223rd nationally and 14th in conference in offensive rebounding rate, while Cincinnati is top-40 nationally in offensive rebounding rate allowed. Moreover, the Utes only made 38% of two-point attempts in that game. 

Despite a somewhat solid showing in their only regular season meeting, there’s no reason for me to put any faith in Utah in this matchup. They have lost 4 games in a row by 13+, and they don’t do much well aside from limit perimeter shots. I’m not sure how much that’s going to help them against a Cincinnati offense that has been very strong in the mid-range and in post-ups – where Utah is 23rd percentile or worse defensively this season (Hoop-Explorer). 

Utah vs Cincinnati prediction: Cincinnati Bearcats -10.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -11. 

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The Kansas State Wildcats and the BYU Cougars will meet in Kansas City on Tuesday for round one of the Big 12 Conference Tournament. The Wildcats are the second to last seed in the conference tournament, but they will be playing close to home in Kansas City. It is surprising that BYU is playing on day one of this tournament with all the preseason hype they received but they have trending in the wrong direction lately. I expect BUY to win at least one game in the T-Mobile Center but my best bet of the game is the over.

The over is my best bet of the game because both teams do not play good defense and like to play at a very fast pace offensively. According to KenPom, Kansas State is ranked #17 in average offensive possession length while BYU is ranked #24. It should be a very fast game that should help drive the total over 166. Since February 1^st, BYU is ranked #212 in adjusted defensive efficiency at Bart Torvik and Kansas State is ranked #100. I do not see much defense being played in this one, so take the over.

*Over 166 available at time of publishing. Playable at 167*

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It’s championship Monday in the Southern Conference, as the Furman Paladins and East Tennessee State Buccaneers square off for a conference title and an automatic bid for the NCAA Tournament. Both teams fought an uphill battle in the semifinals to get here, trailing by double digits early in the second half. However, both pieced together massive scoring runs to not only reclaim the lead, but win outright. ETSU’s 2-point victory was also their largest lead of the game, and the same thing can be said for Furman – whose 6-point margin of victory was also their largest lead of the game. The Paladins and Bucs collectively outscored their opponents 99-66 in the second half in Sunday’s semifinals. 

Furman and ETSU met twice during the regular season, and the Bucs prevailed both times. The first meeting was in Johnson City, where ETSU needed overtime to prevail at home 75-71. Asa Thomas, Furman’s best shooter, missed that contest. In the second game in Greenville, the Bucs were the ones without a starter  — Blake Barkley — yet they still emerged with a 78-69 victory thanks to a massive perimeter shooting discrepancy. ETSU knocked down 50% of its 24 3-point attempts, while Furman connected on just 18% of its33 attempts. 

I wrote up the UNC Greensboro-Furman preview on Sunday, and we were on UNCG due to the volatility of Furman’s perimeter shooting. Well, that exact volatility showed — as the Paladins made just 1 of their 8 three-point attempts in the first half. Naturally, UNCG took an 11-point lead into halftime before Furman woke up in the second half and connected on 8-of-12 attempts to pull away for the win, although we got the cover on UNCG. 

Along a similar line of thinking, I lean to ETSU in the SoCon Championship on Monday, but I prefer to target the total. With both teams playing their 3rd game in 3 days after battling back from double-digit deficits last night, I expect fatigue to play a factor in this contest — particularly on those perimeter jumpers. If those shots aren’t falling, we should be in for a low-scoring title game, as neither team plays with much tempo. In fact, ETSU and Furman mutually rank outside the top 240 in adjusted tempo over the last month, and they average just 10.4 fast-break points combined per game over their 5 games. Furthermore, these are the 2 most efficient defenses in the conference per KenPom, and both teams have held their league foes under 33% from distance this season. This game figures to be sweaty no matter how you bet it, but I’m going with a classic championship game under in this one.

Furman vs East Tennessee State prediction: Under 139.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to 138.5.

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Monday’s Sun Belt Tournament final features the top-seeded Troy Trojans vs the #10 Georgia Southern Eagles. The Cinderella run for Georgia Southern has been especially fun considering the Sun Belt’s staggered bracket designed to protect the top teams. The Eagles began playing on Wednesday, and tonight will be their sixth consecutive gameday. It has been one heckuva run, but it is hard to imagine that bodies can hold up to that kind of demand. I will take Troy -7.

The Trojans began play yesterday in the semifinals. They did beat the Eagles in both regular-season meetings — by 5 and by 7 — but it is not like Troy dominated the conference schedule by any means. At 12-6 in conference play, they are one of the more mediocre regular-season champs out there. But it is hard for me to get past the physical toll this tournament has to be taking on Georgia Southern. This is a team whose identity is completely about playing fast. Legs are heavy and minds are not going to be sharp, and this looks like a recipe for mistakes. The methodical Trojans have to have the advantage. This number is bigger than I want, but I have to take the Trojans to cover.

Georgia Southern vs Troy prediction: Troy -7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The WCC tournament is into the semifinal round, and we have a pretty significant mismatch on our hands in the first game between the Oregon State Beavers and Gonzaga Bulldogs. To their credit, the Beavers have been fighting hard for head coach Wayne Tinkle since it was announced that he would be leaving the program at the end of the season. Oregon State rallied in the second half of Sunday’s quarterfinal game against San Francisco, but this game promises to be a much more difficult test for a Beavers team that is pretty overmatched on paper in this matchup. It’s also worth mentioning that Gonzaga is coming off a loss to Saint Mary’s, a game in which the Gaels made 16 threes and generally played well above their heads, while the Bulldogs shot very poorly for the second half of that contest. That doesn’t bode well for the Beavers on Monday.

Earlier this season, Gonzaga was able to win by 20 in Corvallis, a spot where Oregon State has played much better basketball compared to its performances on the road. It wouldn’t shock me if this game was all that different, especially with Gonzaga’s historical record in the WCC Tournament over the years. The Bulldogs have been excellent when coming off a loss this season, and Mark Few’s team might also be getting Jalen Warley back in the lineup, which would provide an immediate boost for an already very good defense on the wing. Oregon State is very poor on the glass and has struggled mightily from 2-point range all season long, so if the Beavers are not knocking down their outside shoots, it’s hard to see them scoring enough to keep pace with a Gonzaga offense that is very efficient and should be able to score 80+ points in this one. It’s not my favorite play on the board, but I’ll lay the points with the Zags.

Gonzaga vs Oregon State prediction: Gonzaga -18.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

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#2 seed Robert Morris will get ready to face #3 seed Detroit Mercy Titans in the Horizon League Tournament, as both teams look to advance to the championship game. Robert Morris has been playing excellent basketball down the stretch, winning 8 straight games — including an 11-point victory over Detroit on February 25. In that matchup, the Colonials shot 36% from beyond the arc and forced 12 Detroit turnovers that turned into 23 points. 

Robert Morris will look to keep its momentum going behind Ryan Prather Jr., who is coming off a strong performance after scoring 24 points against Youngstown State. Detroit also brings plenty of offensive talent into this matchup, with 4 players averaging double-figures — led by Orlando Lovejob at 15.3 points per game. While both teams are fairly even offensively, Robert Morris holds the advantage on the defensive end — allowing just 72.2 points per game compared to Detroit’s 78.2. That defensive consistency could prove to be the difference in this matchup. I expect this to be a great matchup between 2 talented teams, but the Colonials’ balanced offense and stronger defense should help them control the pace and secure a win. Look for Robert Morris to get the job done and advance to the Horizon League Championship. 

Detroit Mercy vs Robert Morris prediction: Robert Morris -5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The WCC Tournament is into the semifinal round on Monday, and this matchup between Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s is arguably the most important contest of the entire day of college hoops action. After all, the Broncos are squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble and this game against a Quad 1 opponent presents Santa Clara with a massive opportunity to make a statement on a national stage and essentially lock itself into the field of 68. The Broncos have split the season series against Saint Mary’s, and given that they were clearly the better team in the first meeting, there is a clear path to success for Santa Clara to at least keep this game within one possession, if not win it outright. With that in mind, I can only look toward backing Santa Clara in a situation where the Broncos are live to spring the outright upset.

These teams are fairly evenly matched on paper, which is part of why I gravitate toward taking the points with the underdog. We know that this is going to be a clash of styles, with Saint Mary’s sitting at 257th in adjusted tempo, while Santa Clara is 57th in pace of play. However, while the Gaels offense has been inconsistent against high-level competition, the Broncos have the capability to score on any defense. Herb Sendek’s offense is among the best at the mid-major level, as Santa Clara ranks 23rd in adjusted efficiency (BartTorvik) while tallying 80 or more points in 8 of its last 11 games played. Santa Clara is extremely efficient around the rim as a unit, and the Broncos also do a great job of attacking the offensive glass (19th in offensive rebounding rate). Furthermore, Saint Mary’s also really struggles at getting to the free-throw line, so manufacturing points could be a little more difficult to come by for an offense that is 163rd in free-throw rate on the season. I’ll take the points in this crucial matchup on Monday.

Santa Clara vs Saint Mary’s prediction: Santa Clara +4.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to Santa Clara +3.5

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