College Basketball Picks

The Kentucky Wildcats took care of business at home on Saturday, beating Vanderbilt 91-77 behind an eye-popping 1.34 points per possession, 65.5% from two-point range and 50% from the perimeter. Winners of 2 straight and tied with Tennessee for the 4th spot in the SEC standings, this is a massive game for conference tournament seeding, as the top 4 teams in the SEC earn a double-bye. 

Meanwhile, the Texas A&M Aggies faded from the double-bye conversation in February, winning just 2 of 8 games to drop to 9-7 in conference play. They finished the month outside the top 50 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 99th in adjusted defensive efficiency (BartTorvik), while they were outside the top 200 in effective field goal percentage on both ends of the floor. This Texas A&M defense has been a real liability in transition and around the rim, and the Aggies have been terrible on the defensive glass (267th in offensive rebounding rate allowed). None of that bodes well for a matchup with Kentucky, who was top-40 in adjusted efficiency on both ends in February, as well as top-25 in offensive rebounding rate. Kentucky’s rebounding prowess is a tremendous asset in this matchup considering Texas A&M is in the 8th percentile in second-chance points allowed per game against conference opponents. 

This game will be played with a ton of pace, which should favor the Wildcats. Kentucky has one of the most efficient transition offenses in the country, ranking in the 99th percentile in adjusted transition efficiency this season, as well as in the 90th percentile in transition frequency per Hoop-Explorer. Over their last 5 games, they are in the 96th percentile in fast break points per game (15.8), which makes up about 20% of their scoring in that period according to CBBAnalytics. Texas A&M will counter with a defense that is in the 36th percentile in transition and just the 3rd percentile nationally in fast break points allowed per game over their last 5. The Aggies love to run themselves, but the transition edge has to go to Kentucky given how much better the Wildcats are defensively in that area. In fact, the Wildcats are in the 98th percentile in transition defense over the course of the entire season, and that even improves against top-50 teams. 

I worry about Kentucky’s spotty road success ahead of this matchup, but for what it’s worth, the Wildcats have been on a roll for bettors of late – covering 7 of their last 8. On the other side, the Aggies have been a fade of late, going 1-5 ATS in their last 6. 

Kentucky vs Texas A&M prediction: Kentucky Wildcats +1.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -1. 

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BYU appears to be heading in the wrong direction with just two games left in the regular season. The Cougars have lost three of their last four matchups, and things won’t get any easier against a red-hot Cincinnati team that has won five of its last six games. The Bearcats have found their rhythm offensively, averaging 82.5 points per game over their last six while holding opponents to just 69.2 points per game. BYU, on the other hand, is averaging only 75.5 points over its last four games while allowing 80 points during that span.  

It’s clear that not having Richie Saunders in the lineup has been a major issue for the Cougars. AJ Dybantsa has done everything he can to keep BYU in it, averaging 26.6 points per game over his last five games, and Robert Wright III has been solid as well. However, the Cougars still haven’t found anyone capable of replacing Saunders’ production, which has hurt them offensively. BYU will also have a difficult time slowing down Moustapha Thiam, who has been electric for Cincinnati. Thiam hasn’t scored fewer than 20 points in his last three games and is averaging 20.6 points over his last five, well above his season average of 12.6. The Bearcats are simply playing better basketball right now, and they’ll also have the advantage of playing at home, where they are 14-3 this season. BYU has struggled on the road, going just 3-5. Look for Cincinnati to take care of business as they continue building their tournament resume. 

BYU vs Cincinnati prediction: Cincinnati -1.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

While it’s not one of the biggest games on Tuesday’s college basketball slate, this matchup between Kansas and Arizona State is worth keeping an eye on, especially since Kansas is looking to bounce back following a blowout loss at the hands of Arizona over the weekend. The Sun Devils have been particularly frisky at home, having picked off the likes of Texas Tech, and Cincinnati as underdogs in conference play. Furthermore, Arizona State has covered the spread in 6 of its last 7 games played at Desert Financial Arena. On paper, Tuesday’s contest could be a real challenge for the Jayhawks, especially since Kansas is in a bit of a sleepy spot against a Sun Devils side that should be able to play loose and free at home. However, this is a tough matchup for an Arizona State team that is operating at a pretty significant deficiency on both sides of the ball.

Following an embarrassing loss, Bill Self and the rest of the Kansas staff can be trusted to come up with a gameplan that will neutralize the Sun Devils offense. The Jayhawks boast an elite defense that sits inside the top 10 nationally in adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed and 2-point percentage allowed. Arizona State is hardly a proficient offense, and it’s difficult to see the hosts breaking out in a game where they’ll need to consistently score in a halfcourt setting. Conversely, the Sun Devils’ defense is 267th in effective field goal percentage allowed and well outside the top 300 in defensive rebounding rate per Bart Torvik. I expect Kansas to execute at a much higher level in the halfcourt than what we saw against Arizona a few days ago, and that doesn’t even account for the edge the Jayhawks should have on the glass with Flory Bidunga patrolling the paint. This should be a game where Kansas is able to establish control early and keep the Sun Devils at an arm’s length throughout, much like what we saw when Kansas went to Oklahoma State following a loss and ended up dominating the proceedings. I’ll lay the points on Tuesday. 

Kansas vs Arizona State prediction: Kansas -5.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Kansas -6.

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The UCLA Bruins host the Nebraska Cornhuskers in a key B1G matchup on Tuesday night. The Huskers sit in a tie for 2^nd place in the conference standings with Michigan State, while the Bruins sit in 7^th. Seeding in the conference tournament matters, as there is a double bye system. The Bruins are looking to bounce back from a loss at Minnesota, while the Huskers have won three in a row and just handled USC on the road over the weekend. The line is essentially a pick ‘em, and that is because UCLA has only lost once at home all season. Even still, I am backing the Huskers here.

We think of Nebraska as an outside shooting team, and they certainly are that, as they attempt 3s at one of the highest rates in the country. But what is underappreciated about this Nebraska team is how efficient they are inside the arc. With an effective FG% in the top 30 and a 2-pt% rate in the top 20, this is a team that can attack you in multiple ways. UCLA defends the arc well, but they rank in the 240s nationally when it comes to defending the 2-pt shot. In short, I think Nebraska can win this game around the rim. Even in a tough road environment, I am taking Nebraska to cover -1.

Nebraska vs UCLA Prediction: Nebraska -1 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.