College Basketball Picks

Following a 6-game losing streak, the Butler Bulldogs have won 2 games in a row over Georgetown and Xavier and will look to make it 3 in a row with an upset win at Villanova on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Villanova’s 6-game win streak was snapped with a 73-63 home loss to UConn over the weekend, a game in which the Wildcats scored just 1 point per possession while knocking down just 25% of their perimeter attempts. Butler and Villanova already met once this year at Hinkle Fieldhouse, and it was Villanova that came away with a convincing 85-67 win. The Cats held the Dogs to 0.94 points per possession in that contest. 

This is a tricky spot for Villanova, coming off a loss to UConn with St. John’s on deck this weekend. That being said, I’m not confident in Butler being the team to take advantage of this potential sandwich spot given their struggles on both ends. The Bulldogs are in the 12th percentile in effective field goal percentage over their last 5 games, while sitting in the 27th percentile in defensive rating over that span. Furthermore, the Bulldogs are shorthanded without Azavier Robinson for the rest of the season, who was one of their better perimeter defenders. 

The Wildcats had a field day from two-point range against Butler on the road in the first meeting, connecting on 25-of-37 attempts. That success is repeatable against a Butler defense that is dead last in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency and two-point percentage allowed, as well as 3rd-worst in block rate. In fact, since February 1st, the Bulldogs are surrendering an average of nearly 60% on two-point attempts, which puts them 347th nationally. Not to mention, they’re 309th in three-point rate allowed in that span, which Villanova can take full advantage of given their 2nd-ranked three-point rate in conference with multiple capable shooters. I lean toward ignoring the spot and laying it with Villanova in this one.

Butler vs Villanova prediction: Villanova Wildcats -9.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to -10. 

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The number here isn’t just about rankings, it’s about scoring environment and where the game is being played. Texas Tech at home has been a completely different offensive team, averaging over 87 points per game in Lubbock, while Cincinnati’s road offense drops into the high 60’s. That is a huge gap because this matchup is less about defense and more about whether the Bearcats can keep pace for 40 minutes. Texas Tech’s biggest edge is offensive efficiency and shot quality. The Red Raiders score 82.1 points per game compared to Cincinnati’s 72.7 points per game, while also shooting significantly better from the field (46.7% vs 43.0%). Remember those figures for the next part of this analysis.

There’s also a situational angle working against the Bearcats. Cincinnati is coming off a headline upset at Kansas, where #2 Houston and #1 Arizona have already lost. Winning in Lawrence in dominant fashion is a feather in the cap for Cincinnati, even if Tech is ranked and a high-profile scalp in its own right. The point is, there can actually be a dip here for the Bearcats, and the question is whether or not that result against Kansas was an outlier. If it was and each team performs to the norm, Tech wins easy here. And the spread isn’t asking for dominance either, just separation. If the Red Raiders hit normal home scoring levels and Cincinnati returns to its normal road profile, this becomes an easy multiple-possession loss for the visitors.

Cincinnati vs Texas Tech prediction: Texas Tech -6.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -7.

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Perception is built on contrast in records and location, but the matchup context suggests the gap may be overstated. Indiana is a strong home team (13-2 SU in Bloomington), yet the spread assumes IU will create clean separation against a Northwestern group (who has only won two games on the road) that plays a very specific style: low turnover, half-court execution, and possession control. The Wildcats rank among the best nationally at taking care of the ball, which is a critical trait for underdogs trying to stay within range.

The situational angle also favors the points. Indiana is coming off a lopsided loss to Purdue, and teams in bounce-back spots often focus first on stabilizing rather than extending margin. Meanwhile, Northwestern enters off a confidence-building win over Maryland, shooting efficiently and sharing the ball well, a sign their offense is capable of functioning when the pace is controlled. There’s also a mathematical element. With the total around 147, this projects as a moderate-scoring Big Ten game. This kind of environment naturally favors underdogs because each trip carries more weight and long scoring runs are harder to generate. Indiana will likely win, but covering here requires sustained separation. Northwestern’s ball security and discipline make that a tough ask, so let’s take the Wildcats on the road.

Northwestern vs Indiana prediction: Northwestern +9 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The forgettable season continues for Xavier, who dropped their 11th conference game and 4th game in 5 outings on Saturday at Butler. Sitting under .500 and tied for 2nd-worst in the Big East, the Musketeers will head to Rhode Island to play the Providence Friars on Tuesday – another team tied for 2nd-worst in the conference. That said, Providence is coming into this contest off a win at DePaul, which was their 2nd road win of the season, and they’re seeking some revenge over the Musketeers – who beat them in Cincinnati 97-84 in early January. Xavier hit 12 threes and turned it over just 4 times in that game.

Speaking of Xavier threes, after a 3-game dry spell, the Musketeers are back to firing away from distance like they were just after New Year’s Day. They’ve taken at least 23 threes in 3 straight games – at least 32 twice – and have made at least 10 in each of those games. Providence will give up plenty of perimeter looks, as they showed in the first meeting when Xavier attempted 30 of them. 

The Musketeers are shooting 38.2% from three-point range over their last 5 games, and there is absolutely no drop off in their perimeter shot-making away from home considering they are shooting exactly 36.6% from distance both at home and on the road according to TeamRankings. The Friars will get their fair share of threes up as well, as they’ve attempted at least 20 of them in 11 of 14 games since January 1st and attempted 32 of them in the first meeting – though they only made 8. They should produce a better result this time around considering they are shooting 37% in all home games and right around that over their last 5 games. 

In addition to an abundance of threes, expect some pace in this game, as Xavier and Providence are 1st and 2nd, respectively, in the Big East in adjusted tempo and top-4 in average possession length. On paper, Providence has slowed it down a bit recently compared to their seasonlong pace numbers, but I believe that is a product of who they have played over the last 5 games rather than a change in style. The Friars have shown a desire to run with their fast-paced opponents all year long, and I don’t know why that trend would end here. 

Xavier vs Providence prediction: Over 170.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 171.5. 

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The Minnesota Golden Gophers will travel to Ann Arbor on Tuesday night for a Big 10 Conference matchup against the Michigan Wolverines. Michigan moved down to the 3rd-ranked team in the latest AP Poll after their close loss to Duke on Saturday. They took their first loss to since January 10 and will look to bounce back in a big way to keep their #1 overall seed hopes alive. The Wolverines are one of the best teams in the country and should have no issues handling this Minnesota team that is just 6-10 in league play.

I like Michigan to cover the spread in this game because they are simply a better team than Minnesota and should be able to impose their will on them. The Golden Gophers will try to slow this game down as much as possible but that will likely not be enough to stop the Wolverines offense that has dominated teams inside all year. According to Bart Torvik, Michigan’s offense is ranked 2nd nationally in 2-point percentage while Minnesota’s defense is ranked  just 133rd. With that in mind, I do not see Minnesota being able to matchup with Michigan’s size and length in this one, so I am taking laying the points with Michigan at home.

Minnesota vs Michigan prediction: Michigan -22.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 25.

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The Arizona Wildcats head to Waco fresh off a win at Houston, handing the Cougars just their 2nd home loss in conference since joining the Big 12 3 years ago. Without Koa Peat, the Cats held Houston to 1.02 points per possession on 40% from two-point range and 30.8% beyond the arc. They also won the turnover battle by 7, only turning it over 5 times, which is extremely impressive at Houston. Meanwhile, Baylor comes into this contest off a rare conference win, defeating Arizona State at home on Saturday 73-68 thanks to one of their better perimeter shooting performances in conference play. They were probably due for some good luck in that department, as they were 5-of-46 combined from three against Kansas State and Louisville in the 2 games prior. 

This is quite a sandwich spot for Arizona, coming off the big win at Houston with a revenge game at home against Kansas on Saturday. Peat is listed as questionable for his game, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him held out until this weekend – as coach Tommy Lloyd made it sound like the Wildcats are playing the long game with him. Anthony Dell’Orso, the star of Saturday’s win, is also questionable after picking up an injury late in the game against the Cougars. Meanwhile, Baylor should be close to full strength with Dan Skillings listed as probable.

It’s been a tough year for the Bears, but this squad still has talent and they are playing at home, where some of their best conference performances have been – even in losses. They attack the offensive glass aggressively and they like to find attempts in the mid-range via their strong stable of combo guards, which could give them a nice floor here considering Arizona’s defense tends to funnel its opponents to the mid-range. Look for the Bears to do just enough to finish inside the number in a tough spot for Arizona, who is 1-3 ATS in their last 4 as a road favorite.

Arizona vs Baylor prediction: Baylor +10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +9. 

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The difference between these teams right now is momentum versus drift. Auburn comes in off a confidence-building win over Kentucky, snapping a losing stretch and showing the kind of late-game toughness that matters in coin-flip spots like this one. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has dropped back-to-back contests and is just 2–8 straight up in its last 10 games, a stretch that reflects a team struggling to close and sustain.

The matchup also favors Auburn’s offensive profile. The Tigers average 83.7 points per game and OU is a team that lives and dies by their offense. The Sooners after all, nearly give up 80 points per contest. This gives Auburn the ability to score in spurts. That matters because Oklahoma’s biggest issue lately is stability. When possessions stall, these scoring droughts have been the difference in several recent losses since their defense routinely falters. In a situation where Auburn is essentially asked to win the game, the key question is which team is more reliable when push comes to shove? Our money wouldn’t be on the Sooners based on that premise. In a virtual pick’em spot between a team stabilizing and one sliding, the play here is War Eagle.

Auburn vs Oklahoma prediction: Auburn -1.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.

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Utah has struggled against Big 12 competition all season, posting a 2-12 conference record while ranking 14th in points per game (75.6) and 13th defensively, allowing 78.4 points per game in conference play. The Utes were able to keep things close in their most recent matchup against UCF, shooting 49.1% from the floor, and they also picked up an impressive road win against West Virginia. With just four games remaining in the regular season, Utah isn’t ready to wave the white flag and will look to pull off its biggest upset of the year at home against No. 4 Iowa State.  

Iowa State has shown some recent offensive inconsistency, falling 79-69 to then-No. 23 BYU on Saturday, but they’ve also proven they can rise to the occasion against elite competition. The Cyclones knocked off then-No. 2 Houston by three points and dominated then-No. 9 Kansas by 18, thanks largely to their defense rather than their offense. Iowa State is holding opponents to 65.1 points per game, a number that sets up poorly for a Utah offense that has struggled against top-tier Big 12 defenses. Offensively, Iowa State does have the talent with Milan Momcilovic, Joshua Jefferson, and Tamin Lipsey as they all look to get things going against a weaker Utah Utes defense. Utah may have some fight left in them, but the Cyclones are going to look to gain some ground in the Big 12 standings and take care of business against a much weaker Utah team on the road. Expect Iowa State to control the pain, dictate the tempo, and pull away as the game wears on.  

Iowa State vs Utah prediction: Iowa State -13 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The nightcap in the Big 12 on Tuesday features the BYU Cougars hosting the UCF Knights. The Cougars have regrouped nicely after losing star shooter Richie Saunders, and they beat Iowa State at home over the weekend. UCF seems to be in a safe spot as far as the tournament goes, but playing better on the road would help their case even more. The Knights struggle away from home, often losing ugly. But they got a narrow win at Utah on Saturday, and they stayed in Beehive State for a couple days between games. I don’t like betting games with UCF on the road because there is so much variance, but I do think this game stays under a high point total of 163.5. That’s my play on Tuesday.

The BYU offense still has plenty of firepower without Richie Saunders, but it does seem likely that their offensive production has to take at least a little bit of a step back without him. UCF is not necessarily a fast-paced team, so much as they rebound well and are efficient with their offensive possessions. The BYU defense is certainly not their strong suit, but they looked good at home against Iowa State over the weekend. I am not convinced that both teams will spill into the 80s in this game, and if UCF continues to struggle for stretches on the road, they will run out of time before reaching this total. I’ll take the under.

UCF vs BYU prediction: Under 163.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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