College Basketball Picks

The DePaul Blue Demons will travel to Newark on Wednesday night to play a Big East Conference game against the Seton Hall Pirates. Neither team is a projected tournament team, but Seton Hall still has a chance to make the big dance if they can finish the season strong. DePaul is better than they have been in recent years, but they still will be in for a big challenge in this matchup. Seton Hall is currently an 8.5-point favorite, and I like Seton Hall to cover that spread.

I like Seton Hall to cover the spread in this game because their defense is one of the best in the country and they should be able to turn over DePaul at a high rate. According to KenPom, Seton Hall’s defense is ranked #7 in turnover percentage while DePaul’s offense is ranked #246. The Blue Demons average 12.1 turnovers a game and will likely struggle to take care of the ball here. I believe that the Pirates defense will be the difference in this matchup, and I expect them to cover the spread. Take Seton Hall.

*Seton Hall -8.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at -10*

After a dominant home win over UCLA on Saturday, the Michigan Wolverines are 24-1 and in the middle of another 10-game winning streak. They will look to push it to 11 when they travel to West Lafayette to play the Purdue Boilermakers on Tuesday night, who have won 4 in a row after a 3-game skid at the end of January. Moreover, only 2 of Purdue’s last 8 games have been at Mackey Arena, so expect a rambunctious crowd when the #1 team in the country comes to town. That being said, Purdue has shown some mortality at home this year, dropping games to Iowa State and Illinois – arguably the 2 best defenses on their schedule to this point – which is notable ahead of this matchup considering Michigan has the best defense in the country.

Not only is Michigan elite defensively, but the Wolverines have incredible length in the front court, making them an absolute nightmare to defend around the basket. In an attempt to negate action at the rim, Purdue deploys a defensive system that involves a ton of hedging and other help-related actions, which has worked well considering the Boilermakers yield a shot at the rim less than 24% of the time (97th percentile). However, when opponents manage to get to the rim, there is very little resistance from Purdue. The Boilers allow opponents to shoot 64% at the rim (36th percentile), and there isn’t a ton of shot-blocking prowess on this team outside of Oscar Cluff, which isn’t ideal against a Michigan front court that makes almost 72% of their attempts at the rim (97th percentile) and 53% of their paint attempts (99th percentile). 

When Purdue has the ball, Braden Smith will orchestrate the offense through a myriad of ball screens and buddy-ball actions, and the Boilermakers will operate heavily through the mid-range. However, Michigan, being the top-rated defense that they are, will have an answer for all of those actions. Per Hoop-Explorer, the Wolverines are elite defensively in the mid-range, against post-ups and in ball screens, while they also shut down drive-and-kick actions with their elite perimeter length and disciplined closeouts. Simply put, I expect it to be difficult for Cluff and Trey Kaufman-Renn to find consistent offensive success against this Michigan front court, as Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. are the 3 best defenders in the country per Evan Miya’s defensive performance rating. That will put extra pressure on Smith and Fletcher Loyer to pick up the slack out of the front court, which they’ve shown an ability to do. However, that approach may be too one-dimensional against this Michigan defense.

Michigan vs Purdue prediction: Wolverines -2.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -3. 

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The Villanova Wildcats have secured 20 victories, surging to the brink of the Top 25 rankings in both The Associated Press’ Top 25 and Coaches Poll. Since an overtime loss at UConn on Jan. 24, the Wildcats has picked up 5 consecutive victories, including an 80-69 win at Creighton as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. The Over has cashed in 5 of the past 6 Villanova games, and 10 of the past 12 contests as well.

For the Musketeers, it has been a down year for this proud program. While the Musketeers is 11-4 at home, Xavier is just a single game over .500 this seas. However, the offense has picked up the pace in the past couple of games, including a 96-88 win over Marquette at Cintas Center last Saturday. Xavier did nearly top St. John’s last Monday, so when Tre Carroll and the Musketeers are on, this team can be dangerous. Still, Xavier is 2-5 straight up in the past 7 games, and 2-3 ATS in the previous 5 outings. The Over in Xavier games has cashed in 3 straight, and 8 of the past 9. With that in mind, let’s go high on the total as the best bet here.

Villanova vs Xavier prediction: Over 152 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 153.5.

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The North Carolina Tar Heels have been on a roll of late, winning 6 of their last 7. Their only loss in that stretch was a 75-66 defeat at Miami immediately following their comeback win over Duke a couple Saturdays ago, which is somewhat excusable given the situational spot the Heels were in. Unfortunately, UNC may lose some of that momentum now that freshman-phenom Caleb Wilson picked up a hand injury in that loss to Miami and will miss some time, including Tuesday night’s game at in-state rival NC State. Furthermore, fellow starting big man Henri Veesaar is listed as questionable after missing Saturday’s win over Pitt with an illness and a lower-body injury. I assume he will give it a go considering Wilson’s absence, but we won’t know for sure until closer to tip time on Tuesday.

This game is massive for the conference standings ahead of the ACC Tournament, as both UNC and NC State are about a game out of a top-4 seed, behind the likes of Duke, Virginia, Clemson and Miami. Considering the Wolfpack have dropped 2 in a row, most recently a 1-point loss to Miami in which they completely blew a 7-point lead with about 1 minute remaining in the game, they should be laser-focused for this rivalry matchup. Without Wilson and potentially Veesaar, the Pack should be able to find sustained success offensively on Tuesday night – specifically through Darrion Williams’ ability to stretch the floor, Ven-Allen Lubin’s interior scoring and Quadir Copeland’s aggressiveness towards the rim. 

This number is inflated given UNC’s injury concerns, but I would argue it’s not inflated enough. Wilson is one of the best players in the country, and together with Veesaar, they form one of the best front courts in the sport. The short-handed Heels were able to get past Pitt without any issue, but it will likely be a different story on Tuesday in Raleigh – especially if Veesaar misses another game. Jarin Stevenson and Zayden High just haven’t shown enough for me to trust them in expanded roles against this Wolfpack front court. 

North Carolina vs NC State prediction: NC State Wolfpack -6 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to -6.5. 

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No. 15 Michigan State will look to stop the bleeding on Tuesday as they welcome UCLA to East Lansing. The Spartans have dropped three of their last four – a stretch that hasn’t sat well with head coach Tim Izzo. Expect Michigan State to get back to basics – a physical defense, rebounding, and making opponents uncomfortable for 40 minutes. UCLA enters this matchup reeling as well, coming off an 86-56 loss to Michigan, where the Bruins shot just 37.9% from the floor and struggled to generate consistent offense. This could be another long night for the Bruins as Michigan State ranks 7th according to KenPom in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (92.4) this season, despite their recent defensive struggles.  

The Spartans will have one goal in mind, slow down Tyler Bilodeau if they want to win this game. The senior is averaging 17.9 points and 5.6 rebounds per game this season and has been the leading scorer for the Bruins this season, but he’s not the only scoring threat they have. UCLA has five players averaging double digits this season, compared to the Spartans, who just have three. Leading Michigan State in offense is Jeremy Fears Jr., averaging 15.1 points and 9.2 assists per game. Michigan State has been terrific at home this season (12-2), and the only thing they can’t afford to do is have a slow start to this game. Michigan State has been a strong second-half team all season, and they should be in a position to pull away in this matchup. With Izzo’s experience and the energy of the home crowd, this sets up as a prime opportunity to reset the tone. Look for the Spartans to dictate the physicality, wear UCLA down defensively, and pull away late for a much-needed bounce-back win.  

UCLA vs Michigan State prediction: Michigan State -8.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Wisconsin Badgers will travel to Columbus on Tuesday night to play a Big 10 Conference game against the Ohio state Buckeyes. Ohio State is coming off a non-conference loss to Virginia in their last game and need to start stacking wins if they want a chance at the NCAA Tournament. They are just 16-9 on the year and the games do get easier moving forward. Wisconsin have brought themselves out of the bubble conversations with back-to-back top 10 wins over Illinois and Michigan State. They are now ranked inside the top 25 and are one of the hottest teams in the country. I will take the team playing the better basketball and ride Wisconsin as a short favorite here.

I like Wisconsin -1 in this game despite them being the road because they are playing better than anyone nationally and have two of the best guards in the nation. Nick Boyd and John Blackwell are both averaging over 19 points per game this season and scored over 20 points in each of their last two games. Ohio State guard John Mobley Jr. will not play in this game, which gives the Buckeyes one less guard to throw at the Wisconsin’s lethal backcourt. Since February 1, the Badgers are ranked 2nd in adjusted offensive efficiency at Bart Torvik, and I think their firepower will be too much for the Buckeyes to handle. Take Wisconsin to win and cover.

Wisconsin vs Ohio State prediction: Wisconsin -1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

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It’s a new look for the Kansas State Wildcats as they fired head coach Jerome Tang on Sunday. Interim coach Matthew Driscoll now takes over with one goal in mind – stabilize this team and finish the season with some momentum. The Wildcats enter this matchup on a six-game losing streak, averaging just 64.2 points per game while allowing 82.2. Baylor hasn’t played much better, losing three straight and seven of its last nine. In Big 12 play, Kansas State sits at 1-11, while the Bears are 3-9. It’s a battle between two teams desperate for traction, but I think the edge sits with the Wildcats. 

Despite the recent struggles, Kansas State has the offensive talent to keep this game close, and leading the charge is PJ Haggerty with 23.3 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. The Wildcats recently faced a gauntlet of elite defensive teams – including Houston, Cincinnati, Iowa State, West Virginia, and Kansas – all ranking among the top defensive teams in the Big 12. Baylor’s defense ranks 10th in the Big 12, allowing 76.1 points per game, which could offer Kansas State some much-needed breathing room offensively. The bigger concern for the Wildcats is on the defensive end, where they rank 15th in the league, allowing 80.7 points per game. Slowing down Cameron Carr, who is averaging 19.2 points and 5.8 rebounds, will be critical. Another thing the Wildcats need to limit is the number of turnovers. Baylor is just 2-5 on the road this season, while Kansas State is 8-7 at home. With a coaching change and home crowd advantage, this is a good spot for the Wildcats to bounce back. Look for Haggerty to get going offensively and for Driscoll to make a few changes defensively for the Wildcats and keep this game close. 

Baylor vs Kansas State prediction: Kansas State +4 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Kentucky Wildcats host the Georgia Bulldogs at Rupp Arena tonight at 9:00 as the season heads into the final few weeks. Both teams stand at 17-8, but they are trending in opposite directions. The Wildcats have weathered the storm of injuries to key players, and Mark Pope’s squad had started to find some rhythm and identity. Prior to a loss at Florida over the weekend, the Cats had reeled off 8 wins in their last 9 games. The Dawgs, on the other hand, have lost 5 of their last 6, and they especially struggle on the road in conference play. I will look for all those trends to continue and take Kentucky -7 tonight.

We should certainly expect a lot of points tonight, as both teams like to play fast. Georgia plays at a top-10 pace, and most of their points are generated in transition, especially when they can force live-ball turnovers. Kentucky, however, does not yield a lot of turnovers, taking care of the ball on offense. Kentucky also defends to paint well, and Georgia is poor at shooting the 3. I think this is probably a bad matchup for Georgia in general, but when we add to it the tough road environment with a team that isn’t great away from home anyway, I think the Wildcats should control the game and eventually pull away. If you are betting that way though, it would be nice to see Kentucky actually play well in the first half, something they rarely do.

Georgia vs Kentucky prediction: Kentucky -7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Tuesday’s Big Ten matchup sends the Minnesota Golden Gophers (11-13, 4-9 Big Ten) to Eugene to face the Oregon Ducks (8-16, 1-12 Big Ten) in a game that definitely profiles as a slower paced defensive battle. Minnesota averages 71.5 points per game while allowing 68.9 PPG, shooting 45% from the field and contributing 32.4 rebounds and 17.3 assists per contest. The Gophers have leaned on Cade Tyson (19.4 PPG) for consistent scoring, but much of their offensive identity revolves around half court execution and longer possessions rather than tempo. Oregon scores roughly 72.2 PPG but allows about 74.9 PPG, with Nate Bittle (16.9 PPG, 6.7 RPG), Takai Simpkins (13.0 PPG), and Kwame Evans Jr. (12.5 PPG, 7.1 RPG) leading the way. The Ducks are coming off an 83-72 win over Penn State, shooting 50% from the field and 51.9% from three, though that level of efficiency has not been consistent this season.

Recent trends suggest both teams are more comfortable in controlled, grinding contests. Minnesota’s recent results include a 67-62 loss to Maryland and a 76-73 win over Michigan State, both games that featured methodical possessions and stretches of limited scoring. Oregon, despite flashes of offensive upside, has endured multiple sub-70 scoring performances and periods where opponents dictated pace. With both teams hovering in the low-70s offensively and mid to high 60s defensively, neither side consistently pushes tempo for a full 40 minutes. Given Minnesota’s half court approach, Oregon’s uneven shooting, and defensive metrics that keep opponents near or below averages, this matchup projects as a lower possession battle. If efficiency regresses closer to season norms rather than Oregon’s recent hot shooting, the total has room to stay under.

Minnesota vs Oregon Prediction: Under 136.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 135.5

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No. 13 Texas Tech Red Raiders (19-6, 9-3 Big 12) head to Tempe to face the Arizona State Sun Devils (13-12, 4-8 Big 12) in a game where the underdog can stay within range. Texas Tech has been one of the conference’s most efficient teams, averaging approximately 82.0 points per game while allowing 72.4 PPG, and the Red Raiders stretch defenses with 11.5 made three pointers per game on 38.9% shooting from deep. They also rank fifth in the Big 12 with a 1.53 assist to turnover ratio, reflecting disciplined ball movement and decision making. Texas Tech is 4-2 on the road in conference play and is coming off a statement 78-75 overtime win over No. 1 Arizona, powered by JT Toppin’s 31 points and 13 rebounds, a performance that reinforced their offensive versatility and interior presence.

Arizona State enters at 13-12 overall and 4-8 in Big 12 play, but defensive inconsistency has been the primary obstacle to sustained success. The Sun Devils have dropped competitive games, including a recent 78-70 loss to Colorado, and have hovered around .500 at home with a 7-5 record in Tempe. While Texas Tech’s perimeter shooting and efficiency give them the statistical edge, Arizona State has shown the ability to compete when it controls tempo and limits second chance opportunities. If the Sun Devils can slow the pace, defend the arc effectively, and keep turnovers in check, they have a realistic path to staying within striking distance. With Texas Tech coming off an emotional win and Arizona State capable of physical half court play at home, the points offer value.

Texas Tech vs Arizona State Prediction: Arizona State +8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.5

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