College Basketball Picks

The Maryland Terrapins topped the Oregon Ducks on Tuesday in a 70-60 victory as the No. 17 seed advanced over the No. 16 seed in rather easy fashion. Maryland cashed as a 3.5-point underdog, keeping its season afloat for at least one more day. The Terrapins match up against the Iowa Hawkeyes, which is a rather favorable matchup for Maryland, even though it looks like a mismatch on paper. Maryland lost 20 games this season, while winning just 12 times. However, arguably one of its best victories of the season came on Feb. 11 in College Park, a 77-70 victory over Iowa as a 10.5-point underdog.

Iowa is the No. 9 seed in the Big Ten, and it needs to go on a deep run in this tourney if it hopes to keep its flickering NCAA Tournament hopes alive. In fact, Iowa might need to win the whole thing. It’s unlikely that Maryland is going to be able to surprise Iowa again, but catching double digits is way too many points. Maryland is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in the past five games when an underdog of 9.5 or more points since Feb. 8. Iowa has no business laying these kind of points to a team it lost to outright exactly one calendar month ago.

Maryland +11.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to +10.5.

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The ACC tournament kicks off its second day of action on Wednesday with a fascinating matchup between Pittsburgh and NC State. The Panthers managed to knock off Stanford and keep their season alive on Tuesday after a frantic final possession resulted in a putback layup in the final seconds. Pittsburgh has been playing better basketball of late, but the Panthers are still a considerable underdog in this game, largely based on full-season results. However, it’s not as if NC State has been an inspiring team over the past month. In fact, the Wolfpack have been a sinking stone for quite a while now, having dropped 6 of their last 7 games while failing to cover the spread in all but 1 of those contests. This is not a game I want to attack from a side perspective, so let’s look at the total in what should be a lower-scoring battle than what the market projects.

Given the early start time for this matchup, it wouldn’t shock me if both offenses came out a bit flat and it took a bit for these teams to get their legs under them. After all, we just saw Pittsburgh play a very low scoring game against Stanford on Tuesday in the same time slot. The Panthers offense leaves a lot to be desired, with Pittsburgh currently sitting at 125th in adjusted efficiency (KenPom), while checking in outside the top 200 in both 2-point and 3-point percentage (BartTorvik). On the other side, NC State’s offense has generally been an inconsistent unit over the last month, with the Wolfpack becoming a team that takes a lot of threes and doesn’t get to the foul line at a very high rate. If the outside shots aren’t falling for Will Wade’s team, this game could easily turn into a slog, which is exactly what Pittsburgh (344th in adjusted tempo) wants. Let’s back the under in this Wednesday opener.

Pitt vs NC State prediction: Under 145.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Under 144.5

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The first game on the slate for the Big 12 on Wednesday is the Arizona State Sun Devils vs the Iowa State Cyclones. ASU played on Tuesday and dispatched Baylor with some hot shooting out of the gates. Iowa State will play their first game of the tournament. Their last game was, coincidentally, against this same Arizona State bunch, whom the Cyclones beat 86-65. I anticipate a fairly similar result, so even though the number is large, I am backing Iowa State here at -11.5.

There really wasn’t anything unexpected about the outcome when these teams met a few days ago. Most of the stats were in line with the teams’ statistical profiles. The obvious difference in the game was the turnovers, as the Sun Devils not only turned it over a ton, but also gave up transition points. But Iowa State is a top 5 defensive team in terms of creating turnovers, so that is more or less expected. There is a lot going on with the Sun Devils these days, including reports that the school will move on from coach Hurley when this tournament finishes. I think Iowa State delivers in this spot.

Arizona State vs Iowa State Prediction: Iowa State -11.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

As the SEC tournament gets underway, we open with the LSU Tigers vs the Kentucky Wildcats. The last time Kentucky played in the opening round of an SEC tournament was well into the previous century. The Wildcats certainly must feel like they have something to prove this week in Nashville, and I expect them to win a couple games. The last time Kentucky and LSU played, you may recall, required some last second heroics for the Wildcats to win by 1 and complete a large comeback. On Wednesday, I expect the Cats to be much more decisive early. Give me the Wildcats -7.5.

In the first matchup, Kentucky was on the road in Baton Rouge, and they also were not fully healthy. The Wildcats are, of course, anything but dependable, but circumstances are definitely different. Nashville is often overrun with Kentucky fans, and this team certainly has the advantage in terms of talent. I think Kentucky is coming to this tournament with something to prove, and their talent gap and offensive firepower should mean they win the opener by margin.

LSU vs Kentucky Prediction: Kentucky -7.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -9.

It’s a Big Ten matchup as #13 seed USC gets ready to take on #12 Washington. The Huskies are looking to complete the sweep after already winning the first two meetings. USC has struggled badly down the stretch, dropping its last seven games while allowing 86.3 points per game during that span. Washington hasn’t been playing its best basketball either, losing four of their last seven, but their defense is only surrendering 71.9 points per game in that timeframe.

Washington has had the better defense all year, holding opponents to 73.1 points per game this season compared to USC 77.8. If the Trojans want any chance to win this game, they’ll need to establish Ezra Ausar and Jacob Cofie in the low post. USC was dominated inside during the last matchup with Washington, getting outscored 54-32 in the paint. A big reason for that was the presence of Washington’s 6-foot-11 freshman, Hannes Steinbach, who scored 22 points in that game. USC simply hasn’t found a way to slow him down in either of the previous meetings, and that interior advantage should once again favor the Huskies. The Trojans are averaging just 69.4 points per game during their current seven-game losing streak and appear to be running out of steam late in the season. Washington should come into this matchup with more momentum and the better offense in this matchup. Look for the Huskies to take care of business and advance to the next round. 

USC vs Washington prediction: Washington -5.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Big 12 tournament gets set for its second full day of action on Wednesday with a showdown between Cincinnati and UCF. Few teams are playing better than Cincinnati at the moment, and the Bearcats are fresh off a win over Utah to keep their slim, but realistic NCAA Tournament hopes alive heading into this contest. Despite a loss to TCU last Saturday, Wes Miller’s team is 12th at BartTorvik since February 1, and the resume over the last month certainly speaks volumes as to how well the Bearcats are playing. Cincinnati has already picked up wins over Kansas, Iowa State and this same UCF team in Big 12 play, so it’s certainly possible that the Bearcats could make a deep run this week in Kansas City.

Unlike their counterparts, the UCF Knights are in the midst of their worst run of form since conference play started, and this is not the time of year to be trending in the wrong direction. In fact, UCF is just 3-6 since February 1 and is in dire need of a shot in the arm following a recent 3-game losing streak that included home losses to Baylor and Oklahoma State, plus a blowout loss at the hands of West Virginia. The Knights are now squarely on the bubble, and it’s hard to see their offense having much success in an early afternoon game in this unfamiliar venue against a Cincinnati defense that is among the best units in the nation. The Bearcats did an excellent job of limiting the Knights’ scoring from beyond the 3-point arc in the first meeting back on February 8, and as long as they are able to win the battle on the glass and keep things close in the shot volume department, there should be plenty of avenues for Cincinnati to see success against this porous UCF defense. I’ll lay the short number with the Bearcats.

Cincinnati vs UCF prediction: Cincinnati -2.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Cincinnati -3.

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McNeese State is looking to get back to the NCAA Tournament after losing head coach Will Wade to the North Carolina State after last season’s run. The Cowboys won 27 games this season, but they split two meetings with the Lumberjacks of Stephen F. Austin. In the most recent meeting, SFA won 67-60 as a 2.5-point underdog, and the Lumberjacks covered both of the meetings, while holding a 4-3 against the spread (ATS) edge in the past seven meetings. That’s great news if you’re looking for a same-game parlay (SGP) option in this game in Lake Charles, La.

However, the best play in this one is the total, going low. The Under cashed on Jan. 5, as the teams combined for 130 points with a total of 144.5. We had just 127 points in the Feb. 2 meeting with a total of 141.5, so the Under easily cashed in that one as well. McNeese went high in the semifinal against UTRGV, but that game went to overtime. In the final four games of the regular season, all decided in regulation, McNeese went Under at a 4-0 clip. For Stephen F. Austin, the Under went low in the semis against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, while going 3-1 in the past four outings. With plenty of nerves, a trip to the NCAA Tournament on the line, look for rather sluggish offense and low scores yet again.

Under 138.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to 137.5.

The BYU Cougars and the West Virginia Mountaineers will meet in Kansas City on Wednesday for day two the Big 12 Conference Tournament. The winner of this matchup will move onto the next round to play the Houston Cougars while the loser will go home. West Virginia needs to win this game to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive, but I do not see them having enough to keep pace with BYU. BYU has one of the best freshmen in all of college basketball in AJ Dybansta and I expect him to lead the Cougars to a win here. He had 40 points in their win against Kansas State in round one and I am backing BYU to cover here.

I like BYU -5 in this game because they have one of the best offenses in the country and they showcased that in their first game inside the T-Mobile Center. They scored 105 points and shot an impressive 55 percent from the field. Since February 1^st, BYU’s offense is ranked #21 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency while West Virginia’s defense is ranked just #120. The Mountaineers are just 2-9 over their last 11 games, and I do not see them being able to keep it within the number in this one. Take BYU -5.

*BYU -5 available at time of publishing. Playable at -6*

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The Patriot League appeared to be one of the more predictable conference tournaments on paper, but things quickly took a turn on Sunday when the Boston Terriers hit a long 3-pointer at the buzzer to knock off top-seeded Navy to advance to the title game for the first time since 2020, a year in which they were unable to compete in the postseason due to Covid. The Terriers have won both of their games in this tournament by a combined 3 points, so they are certainly living on the edge and could be due for some regression in a close game on Wednesday. However, Lehigh has also done extremely well in close games in this tournament, having won its quarterfinal matchup against Holy Cross at the buzzer, before knocking off Colgate as an underdog in the semifinal round. This title game is nearly priced as a pick ’em, which makes sense given the current form of both teams, and how close both regular season meetings were. However, I’m going to eschew backing a side in this one and focus on the total instead.

Conference title games are generally of the lower-scoring variety, and I fully expect this one to stay the same. Lehigh is no stranger to playing lower-scoring games, and it’s no surprise that the Mountain Hawks have one of the worst offenses in the nation (ranked 288th in adjusted efficiency), even against a fairly weak schedule. I wouldn’t expect that to change against a Boston team that was able to hold down Navy’s offense in a similarly high-pressure situation in the semifinal round. On the other side, the Terriers are a team that don’t get to the free-throw line and struggle with turnovers, which is not an ideal combination for playing in a high-stakes game that is expected to be close down the stretch. Look for both teams to start out fairly slow in the first half, and as long as we don’t end up with an overtime game, this one should stay under the total.

Boston vs Lehigh prediction: Under 141.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Under 140.

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