College Basketball Picks

Top-ranked Duke is set to host #11 Virginia in what should be an intense ACC battle. Duke currently sits in first place in the conference with a 14-1 record, while Virginia is right behind in second at 13-2. If Virginia can steal this game on the road, it could make the final stretch of the season extremely interesting — especially with Duke facing the tougher remaining schedule. The Blue Devils flexed their muscles in their last game against Notre Dame, rolling to a 100-56 victory while shooting 45.8% from the floor and holding the Fighting Irish to just 36.5% shooting. Virginia is coming off a dominant performance of its own, defeating NC State 90-61, shooting 53.4% while holding the Wolfpack to just 29.4%. This matchup could very well turn into a defensive battle. 

Offensively, Duke has a slight edge — averaging 83 points per game compared to Virginia’s 82.3. Defensively, Duke leads the ACC — allowing just 62.9 points per game. Virginia ranks third, giving up 67.8. A big part of Duke’s success this season comes from Cameron Boozer, who is averaging 22.7 points and 10.1 rebounds per game. Boozer’s size and talent make him extremely difficult for any team to defend in the paint. We saw that when Duke played Michigan, and it will be a major challenge for Virginia in this game. UVA has a star player of their own in Thijs De Riddler, who is averaging 16 points and 6.3 rebounds per game. However, he doesn’t bring the same level of explosiveness that Boozer provides for Duke. Despite their similar conference records, Duke has faced a much tougher schedule than Virginia. The ACC hasn’t been particularly deep this year, and Virginia is just 1-1 against top-25 opponents. Duke, on the other hand, is 9-2 against top-25 teams — including a 68-63 win over then-#1 Michigan. Duke has the depth, physicality and discipline to give this Virginia team a difficult time when it visits Cameron Indoor Stadium. Expect a loud environment and for the Blue Devils to clamp down defensively and pull away for a convincing win, moving a step closer to an ACC title. 

Virginia vs Duke prediction: Duke -10.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Only 1 day separates us from March, and as part of the final Saturday in February, San Diego State will head to The Pit to play the New Mexico Lobos at 2:00 pm ET on CBS. The Aztecs come into this game off a huge home win over Mountain West leader Utah State, which pulled them even with the Aggies in the standings despite consecutive losses to Grand Canyon and Colorado State in the games prior. Meanwhile, the Lobos enter this matchup off a loss at Nevada on Tuesday and currently sit 1 game behind Utah State and San Diego State in the conference standings. 

These teams met once already this year — back on January 17, when the Aztecs beat the Lobos 84-79 at home. Both teams shot well from beyond the arc, but turnovers were an issue and Magoon Gwath was injured during that game — playing only 10 minutes. Considering Gwath just played his second-most minutes of the year, I would expect him to be full go for this one, which should help San Diego State’s interior defense tremendously against a New Mexico offense that loves to attack the rim. Even Elzie Harrington is back from injury now, providing the Aztecs with another plus defender on the perimeter opposite Jake Hall and Deyton Albury. 

The Pit is a very tough place to play, and the Lobos are shooting the lights out right now, but it’s hard to go against Brian Dutcher’s coaching pedigree in a game of this magnitude. The Aztecs are on the mend from a health perspective, and it shows in the metrics, as they are top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency and forced turnover rate since February 1 per BartTorvik. They should be able to shut down New Mexico’s transition opportunities and force their opponents into jumpers all game long, which hasn’t necessarily been a bad thing for the Lobos. However, I’m still expecting some 2-way shooting regression from New Mexico — the Lobos are shooting over 43% from distance in their last 5 games despite having just 1 volume shooter over 38% from range on the roster. They are holding opponents below 30% despite being in the 17th percentile in 3-point attempts allowed over that span and 357th in 3-point rate allowed on the season. Catching a full possession worth of points, I’m on San Diego State. 

San Diego State vs New Mexico prediction: San Diego State Aztecs +3 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +2.

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One of the bigger games in the SEC on Saturday’s slate comes in the form of a rematch between the Vanderbilt Commodores and Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington. Vanderbilt emphatically dispatched the Wildcats in the first meeting between these teams back on January 27, and while the natural inclination is to back Kentucky at home in a revenge spot following that 25-point loss, I’m actually going to go back to the well with the Commodores to sweep the season series on Saturday.

The Wildcats were a team that appeared to be playing much better earlier this month, but — upon further review — they were pretty fortunate to rally from a double-digit deficit to beat Tennessee at home, before dropping games to Georgia, Florida and Auburn in succession. Yes, Kentucky did bounce back with a victory at South Carolina earlier this week, but Mark Pope’s team is not one that matches up well with what Vanderbilt brings to the table. In the previous meeting, we saw that the Commodores owned the glass, dominated in transition and easily outpaced Kentucky from beyond the 3-point arc. While the Wildcats should be able to shoot a bit better at home, this Kentucky offense is still wildly frustrating and clearly suffers from not having enough primary shot creators. The ‘Cats are also susceptible to turning the ball over, which we saw plenty of times in the first meeting. It wouldn’t shock me at all if this mistake-prone Kentucky team struggled with Vanderbilt’s ball-pressure, and the Commodores should be able to turn those mistakes into easy points in transition once again. With Vanderbilt clearly in a much better position from a health perspective compared to a few weeks ago, let’s roll with the Commodores in this one.

Vanderbilt vs Kentucky prediction: Vanderbilt ML (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120. 

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Texas and Texas A&M are set to face off for the second time this season as the Longhorns look to get revenge following their 74-70 loss to the Aggies back in January. Texas played well early in its last matchup against then-#7 Florida, leading at halftime, but the Gators pulled away in the second half as the Longhorns ran out of steam. Texas A&M is also coming off a tough loss to Arkansas in which it struggled to keep up with the Razorbacks’ offensive tempo and depth. These 2 teams are fairly even heading into this matchup. The Aggies rank fourth in the SEC in scoring, averaging 88.7 points per game, while the Longhorns rank seventh with 84.6 points per game. Defensively, however, Texas holds the advantage — allowing 75.7 points per game compared to Texas A&M’s 79.0. 

Nothing the Longhorns do is spectacular, but they have been consistent. Dailyn Swain leads Texas with 18 points and 7.3 rebounds per game, and he has been playing some of his best basketball in the second half of the season. The Aggies’ leading scorer is Rashaun Agee, who is averaging 14.1 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. Both teams have plenty of offensive talent and depth, but the key for Texas in this matchup will be defending the paint, preventing the Aggies from getting out in transition and limiting turnovers. In the previous meeting, Texas A&M capitalized on those mistakes — scoring 15 points off 8 Longhorn turnovers, which ultimately helped seal the win. However, expect the Longhorns to tighten things up defensively in this rematch. If it can limit turnovers and control the pace, Texas should be able to keep this rivalry matchup close on the road. 

Texas vs Texas A&M prediction: Texas +3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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A key battle at the top of the Big 12 on Saturday features the Iowa State Cyclones hosting the Texas Tech Red Raiders. These teams are in a 4-way tie for 2^nd in the loaded Big 12 at 11-4 in the conference. Iowa State split a tough road trip in Utah last week, losing to BYU and surviving the Utes. Texas Tech lost JT Toppin in a loss at Arizona State, but then had a soft landing with Kansas State and Cincinnati after that. Saturday will be the real test of how the Red Raiders fare without Toppin. This number is big, but I am backing the Cyclones -9.5.

I have serious concerns about Tech without Toppin. He was probably the best player in the conference, and while the Red Raiders have done well so far in his absence, playing at Iowa State is just a different animal altogether. Hilton Coliseum is one of the biggest home court advantages in the sport, and the last time the Cyclones were at home, they beat both Kansas and Houston during the homestand. The Cyclones are undefeated at home, and they are tracking for a #1 seed in the Dance. Still, they do not draw nearly the attention that the other top teams do, and people still don’t recognize how good they really are. I think Texas Tech is in trouble on the road against a superior team, and we will really feel the absence of Toppin in this spot.

Texas Tech vs Iowa State Prediction: Iowa State -9.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The game of the night in the Big East features the Villanova Wildcats at the St. John’s Red Storm. St. John’s, of course, is coming off an embarrassing loss at UConn in which it infamously missed its final 24 shots from the field. The temptation here is to overreact and decide that the Red Storm are a bad team — or a bad shooting team — and start fading them. That would be a mistake. We might live the rest of our lives and never see a team miss its final 24 shots — and certainly not team that is, in fact, good. It is just one of those wild outlier moments that, of course, only happens when you bet on a team (as I did). The Johnnies need a bounce-back game, and I am backing them at -7.5.

Villanova is a good basketball team. The ‘Cats are in third in the Big East and they are basically handling everyone not named UConn and St. John’s — who account for 3 of their 4 conference losses. The Wildcats are good, but surely St. John’s comes out playing angry. This is a team with a top 20 defense that plays fast, attacks the rim and shoots a ton of free throws. Villanova is going to have to value the basketball, score on its first shot attempt often and keep the Johnnies off the foul line. I don’t think the Wildcats can do that for 40 minutes. This is a pride game for the Red Storm.

Villanova vs St. John’s prediction: St. John’s -7.5 (-115) available at time of publication. Playable at that number.

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One of the best games of the weekend comes at the mid-major level, as we’ll see a battle in the WCC between the Gonzaga Bulldogs and Saint Mary’s Gaels to finish out Saturday’s card. These teams are certainly familiar with each other, and most of the country is likely aware that this is the premier rivalry in the conference on a year-to-year basis. Both teams have been in excellent form over the past few weeks as well, with these sides combining to post a 12-0 record since February 7. The Gaels are fresh off a massive win over Santa Clara that essentially stamped their legitimacy as an NCAA Tournament team for yet another season, while the Bulldogs just demolished Portland for a sixth straight victory. This is a series that has been very close in recent years, and one that has quietly become defined by defense. With that in mind, while I do lean toward the visitors completing the regular-season sweep, I’m going to focus on what should be a lower-scoring game than what the market projects. 

Both of these teams boat very good defenses (ranked 11th and 25th, respectively, in adjusted efficiency), and that has shown itself to be the case throughout conference play. In fact, Saint Mary’s is 10-7 to the under in WCC play, while Gonzaga is a whopping 13-4 to the under in league games. It’s clear that since it lost star forward Braden Huff to injury over a month ago, Mark Few’s team has really focused on slowing the game down and simply executing better than its opponents late in the shock clock. Graham Ike has obviously been a force in the paint on both ends, but it also can’t be understated that this is the best Gonzaga defense as a unit since at least the 2021-22 team, a group that had Chet Holmgren as its anchor inside. The Bulldogs should be able to control the paint in this matchup, which is part of how they were able to rally from a halftime deficit and dominate the final 20 minutes en route to an 8-point victory in the previous meeting. We know that Saint Mary’s is going to play extremely slow, with the Gaels ranked 282nd in adjusted tempo per KenPom — and that has generally translated into these matchups. A whopping 21 of the last 30 meetings have stayed under the total, so let’s bank on another lower-scoring affair in what is sure to be an excellent matchup on Saturday.

Gonzaga vs St. Mary’s prediction: Under 143.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 143. 

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Dayton just whacked the #23 team in the country in St. Louis on Tuesday, leading by as much as 25 against the Billikens in route to a 77-62 win. A result of that magnitude is bound to create an overreaction. Against a 16-12 Revolutionaries team, the Flyers should notch their 20th win or so the market perceives. And yet, Dayton comes in priced in the same range when they beat St. Louis on Tuesday. A possession-plus the hook underdog.

This has shades of the Miami-UNC game that we handicapped earlier this month after the Tar Heels stunned the Blue Devils in Chapel Hill. No one gave UNC a chance to beat the Blue Devils, who are now the #1 team in the country by the way, and despite trailing the entirety of the contest, UNC won a walk-off three-pointer. Subsequently, the Heels came in flat against the Canes in a match that had an odd line with Miami initially favored. Obviously no two games are the same but the context is similar, Dayton just achieved their signature win this season and now they are on the road with a short turnaround where they are prone to be flat. That’s why the Revolutionaries are favored. Another thing to consider is what happened against the Bills. Dayton shot an unsustainable 64% from the field in the first half and built up a huge lead from otherworldly shooting. Once the Flyers cooled off, the Bills were able to mount a run, but it was too much to overcome. In other words, Tuesday’s result was an outlier and the oddsmakers expect Dayton to regress to the mean against a GW team that can score at will (83 points per game) and sits 11-3 in their own barn. Dayton is just 4-5 SU away from home. With a Blue Out staged, this is an uncomfortable spot for the Flyers to follow up on and the line says things come full circle in D.C.

Dayton vs George Washington prediction: George Washington -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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A colossal Big Ten matchup takes place tonight in Champaign, Illinois, when the Michigan Wolverines meet the Illinois Fighting Illini at the State Farm Center at 8:00 pm ET on FOX. Michigan dropped its game against Duke on Saturday, but the Wolverines have been in great form in Big Ten play, winning 12 straight against conference opponents. Meanwhile, Illinois is 3 games behind Michigan in a 3-way tie for 2nd after dropping 3 of their last 5 games — all in overtime. That includes their most recent outing in Los Angeles, where the Illini blew a 22-point first-half lead and lost to UCLA in the extra period thanks to a Donovan Dent full-court driving layup as time expired. This will be the first meeting between the Wolverines and Illini this year, although Illinois has absolutely owned this series of late — winning 9 of the last 10. There is also an added storyline in this one, as Michigan’s Morez Johnson returns to Illinois to play against his former team after what some considered a messy departure.

It’s hard to go against Illinois in what amounts to be an electric atmosphere at home, but it’s hard not to like this matchup for the Wolverines — a team that has double-digit wins in some of the most difficult venues in the country like Mackey Arena and Breslin Center. This game is going to come down to Illinois hitting its threes. The Illini are around 36% from deep in conference play, but that number has regressed in their last 5 outings. Three of those games were on the road, 2 being out west, so it’s an understandable lull, but Michigan has elite perimeter size to contest Illinois’ shots anywhere on the court. Missed threes from above the key will just turn into transition-starters for the Wolverines, and it’s tough to stop this offense once it gets going downhill with momentum.

Illinois has elite size to line up against Michigan, but the Illini big men want to shoot more than they want to get physical in the paint, which I feel is an advantage for a Michigan team that just played against a big, physical front court in Duke on Saturday. Speaking of advantages, Illinois’ usual edge on the glass is negated in this matchup, as the Wolverines attack the glass hard – specifically on the offensive end.  Michigan’s offense revolves around Yaxel Lendeborg, for whom Illinois doesn’t really have a direct defensive answer, but the Wolverines are also elite at finding the right shot — boasting the nation’s 2nd-best assist rate on the road and a top-20 assist rate nationally on the season overall. That type of selflessness can give Illinois’ drop coverage some issues. All things considered, I expect Michigan to be in a good position to win in a hostile environment on Friday night. Illinois’ extreme three-point variance will prevent me from locking this in as a best bet, but I’m taking the Wolverines on the money line. 

Michigan vs Illinois prediction: Michigan ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

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