College Basketball Picks

Purdue is set to take on Ohio State on Sunday, and both teams have plenty at stake in this matchup. Purdue is coming off a loss to then-No.13 Michigan State despite shooting 49% from the floor. However, their defense struggled, allowing the Spartans to shoot 53%, and nine turnovers proved costly as Michigan State converted them into 19 points. Ohio State is coming off a tough loss against Iowa, where they shot just 42% from the floor, and things won’t get any easier against this Boilermaker team. 

Purdue still has a chance to climb the Big Ten standings, and they’ll need to slow down Bruce Thornton in this matchup if they want to win. Thornton has been playing exceptionally well as of late, averaging 23.6 points per game in his last five, but Iowa’s defense was able to limit him to just 10 points, and I expect the Boilermakers to do the same thing in this matchup. Purdue has the slightly better offense in this matchup, averaging 82.6 points per game compared to Ohio State’s 79.5. Defensively, Purdue is holding opponents to 69.5 points per game compared to the Buckeyes 73.1. Ultimately, this should be an exciting game to watch, but the Boilermakers have the depth and talent to squeak out a win, making them my best bet of the day.  

Purdue vs Ohio State prediction: Purdue -6  (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It is the final day of the Missouri Valley schedule as the Drake Bulldogs host the Northern Iowa Panthers. This conference has been dominated by Belmont, who has a 4-game lead. Everyone else is jammed up and looking for a chance to take down Belmont for the automatic bid next week. Drake does not seem like that team, having lost 8 games in a row in a disastrous season. UNI is doing a bit better, although they are riding a 2-game skid of their own. This game is at Drake, but it is hard to back the Bulldogs in this spot.

Drake ranks outside the top 200 according to both KenPom and Torvik. They have struggled to find an identity all season, something they can really build around. The Bulldogs have stayed close in most games, even during a lengthy losing streak, but morale has to be running low. As for the Panthers, this team plays at a snail’s pace, 364th out of 365 in terms of tempo. But their specialty is that they absolutely do not allow made 3s, and they rebound everything. Their defense overall is 25th, as per KenPom, and it just doesn’t seem like a spot where Drake is likely to succeed. I’ll take the Panthers to cover on the road.

Northern Iowa vs Drake Prediction: Northern Iowa -4 (-115) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -6.

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Road/home splits are the entire case here. The Buffs have won just one game on the road this season and the Cougars have lost just once in their own barn. Houston’s identity is defense, rebounding and physicality. That becomes particularly suffocating in the Fertitta Center. Colorado’s season profile shows it has struggled away from Boulder and struggled to punch up. Colorado is 05 SU against ranked opponents this season, and its road issues amplify how much of a bad spot this is for the Buffaloes against one of the best in the business.

Houston can build the necessary margin without needing a scoring heater. Even while on a rare 3-game losing streak, Houston still profiles as an elite defense. As such, it was competitive in these three defeats against some serious heavyweights: Kansas, Arizona and Iowa State. Colorado is not remotely close to any of these teams. Defense-first favorites are ones that can cover big spreads easier because they keep the underdog from hanging around with easy points. If Colorado’s offense has to live in the half court for 40 minutes, the scoring floor drops, and once the floor drops, backdoors become harder to access. The number implies Houston can separate in multiple segments. At home, with Colorado’s aforementioned vulnerabilities, that’s the correct read.

Colorado vs Houston prediction: Houston -19 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Seton Hall’s profile is built to keep games ugly: elite defense, limited offense. The problem is that UConn’s offensive prowess can break even good defensive teams, because it doesn’t need pace to create separation — the Huskies do it through efficiency and sustained execution. UConn comes in #6 in the country, 26-3 overall and 16–2 in the Big East at the top of standings. The Huskies just delivered a statement where they held a ranked St. John’s without a field goal for over 17 minutes and won by 32, a sign their defense is also sharpening at the right time. To dive a bit deeper, the Red Storm only scored 40 points and they had just 14 points in the second half. In other words, Connecticut orchestrated a masterclass.

Seton Hall is dangerous in coin-flip games, but it is vulnerable when the opponent can build a lead and force the Pirates to score on demand. That’s the key risk for any low-offense team like the Pirates. If Seton Hall falls behind schedule and trails by several possessions, it has to open up — and that’s where things can get out of control. UConn is playing at an elite level right now — and anything that Seton Hall thinks it can do against the Huskies, UConn can do better. The line says it. Huskies win big again.

Seton Hall vs UConn prediction: UConn -14 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Top-ranked Duke is set to host #11 Virginia in what should be an intense ACC battle. Duke currently sits in first place in the conference with a 14-1 record, while Virginia is right behind in second at 13-2. If Virginia can steal this game on the road, it could make the final stretch of the season extremely interesting — especially with Duke facing the tougher remaining schedule. The Blue Devils flexed their muscles in their last game against Notre Dame, rolling to a 100-56 victory while shooting 45.8% from the floor and holding the Fighting Irish to just 36.5% shooting. Virginia is coming off a dominant performance of its own, defeating NC State 90-61, shooting 53.4% while holding the Wolfpack to just 29.4%. This matchup could very well turn into a defensive battle. 

Offensively, Duke has a slight edge — averaging 83 points per game compared to Virginia’s 82.3. Defensively, Duke leads the ACC — allowing just 62.9 points per game. Virginia ranks third, giving up 67.8. A big part of Duke’s success this season comes from Cameron Boozer, who is averaging 22.7 points and 10.1 rebounds per game. Boozer’s size and talent make him extremely difficult for any team to defend in the paint. We saw that when Duke played Michigan, and it will be a major challenge for Virginia in this game. UVA has a star player of their own in Thijs De Riddler, who is averaging 16 points and 6.3 rebounds per game. However, he doesn’t bring the same level of explosiveness that Boozer provides for Duke. Despite their similar conference records, Duke has faced a much tougher schedule than Virginia. The ACC hasn’t been particularly deep this year, and Virginia is just 1-1 against top-25 opponents. Duke, on the other hand, is 9-2 against top-25 teams — including a 68-63 win over then-#1 Michigan. Duke has the depth, physicality and discipline to give this Virginia team a difficult time when it visits Cameron Indoor Stadium. Expect a loud environment and for the Blue Devils to clamp down defensively and pull away for a convincing win, moving a step closer to an ACC title. 

Virginia vs Duke prediction: Duke -10.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This isn’t about Xavier as much as it’s about Georgetown being structurally compromised in this spot. The Hoyas are already struggling on the road (4-6 SU), and now they’re dealing with a massive availability hit: leading scorer KJ Lewis is out for the season after an ankle injury. That’s the kind of loss that shows up most on the road, where role players are asked to create offense against noise, pressure, and tougher shot quality. Not having Lewis there to steady the ship is a huge concern.

Xavier’s edge is the environment. They’ve dominated this series, winning 8 of the last 10 meetings against Georgetown. At home, they have only lost once in recent memory to the Hoyas. The price speaks into this as the oddsmakers are comfortable making Xavier the clear side even though both teams’ records look similar on paper and this is a spread that can be covered without a blowout: Xavier simply needs to win the empty possession battle. Georgetown without its primary scorer is more likely to hit drought pockets, and those sequences are exactly how a lead can be extended to double digits. Lay the short number with the home team that’s healthier, more stable, and historically comfortable in this matchup.

Georgetown vs Xavier prediction: Xavier -4.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.

Louisville is laying a short tag on the road to unranked Clemson. That is exactly the kind of line that invites money on the ranked side while quietly signaling volatility. Clemson has been excellent at home (11-3 SU), while Louisville’s profile flips away from home (3-6 SU). That’s why this number appears short.

Clemson’s advantage is not just where the game is played but also how they play the game, too. The Tigers’ defense and physicality tend to control pace and shot quality, turning games into contests where each empty trip matters more than raw scoring talent. That’s a big problem for The Ville. When Clemson is at home, road teams that aren’t consistently sharp away on the highway get punished — not necessarily with blowouts, but with 2 or 3 key sequences that decide the night. The posted price is a warning that this could be Louisville’s future. I’m listening. Tigers outright.

Louisville vs Clemson prediction: Clemson ML (+101) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

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Only 1 day separates us from March, and as part of the final Saturday in February, San Diego State will head to The Pit to play the New Mexico Lobos at 2:00 pm ET on CBS. The Aztecs come into this game off a huge home win over Mountain West leader Utah State, which pulled them even with the Aggies in the standings despite consecutive losses to Grand Canyon and Colorado State in the games prior. Meanwhile, the Lobos enter this matchup off a loss at Nevada on Tuesday and currently sit 1 game behind Utah State and San Diego State in the conference standings. 

These teams met once already this year — back on January 17, when the Aztecs beat the Lobos 84-79 at home. Both teams shot well from beyond the arc, but turnovers were an issue and Magoon Gwath was injured during that game — playing only 10 minutes. Considering Gwath just played his second-most minutes of the year, I would expect him to be full go for this one, which should help San Diego State’s interior defense tremendously against a New Mexico offense that loves to attack the rim. Even Elzie Harrington is back from injury now, providing the Aztecs with another plus defender on the perimeter opposite Jake Hall and Deyton Albury. 

The Pit is a very tough place to play, and the Lobos are shooting the lights out right now, but it’s hard to go against Brian Dutcher’s coaching pedigree in a game of this magnitude. The Aztecs are on the mend from a health perspective, and it shows in the metrics, as they are top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency and forced turnover rate since February 1 per BartTorvik. They should be able to shut down New Mexico’s transition opportunities and force their opponents into jumpers all game long, which hasn’t necessarily been a bad thing for the Lobos. However, I’m still expecting some 2-way shooting regression from New Mexico — the Lobos are shooting over 43% from distance in their last 5 games despite having just 1 volume shooter over 38% from range on the roster. They are holding opponents below 30% despite being in the 17th percentile in 3-point attempts allowed over that span and 357th in 3-point rate allowed on the season. Catching a full possession worth of points, I’m on San Diego State. 

San Diego State vs New Mexico prediction: San Diego State Aztecs +3 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +2.

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One of the bigger games in the SEC on Saturday’s slate comes in the form of a rematch between the Vanderbilt Commodores and Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington. Vanderbilt emphatically dispatched the Wildcats in the first meeting between these teams back on January 27, and while the natural inclination is to back Kentucky at home in a revenge spot following that 25-point loss, I’m actually going to go back to the well with the Commodores to sweep the season series on Saturday.

The Wildcats were a team that appeared to be playing much better earlier this month, but — upon further review — they were pretty fortunate to rally from a double-digit deficit to beat Tennessee at home, before dropping games to Georgia, Florida and Auburn in succession. Yes, Kentucky did bounce back with a victory at South Carolina earlier this week, but Mark Pope’s team is not one that matches up well with what Vanderbilt brings to the table. In the previous meeting, we saw that the Commodores owned the glass, dominated in transition and easily outpaced Kentucky from beyond the 3-point arc. While the Wildcats should be able to shoot a bit better at home, this Kentucky offense is still wildly frustrating and clearly suffers from not having enough primary shot creators. The ‘Cats are also susceptible to turning the ball over, which we saw plenty of times in the first meeting. It wouldn’t shock me at all if this mistake-prone Kentucky team struggled with Vanderbilt’s ball-pressure, and the Commodores should be able to turn those mistakes into easy points in transition once again. With Vanderbilt clearly in a much better position from a health perspective compared to a few weeks ago, let’s roll with the Commodores in this one.

Vanderbilt vs Kentucky prediction: Vanderbilt ML (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120. 

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The Utah Utes (10-18, 2-13 Big 12) head to Tempe for a conference matchup with the Arizona State Sun Devils (14-14, 5-10 Big 12) as both teams look to steady inconsistent seasons. Utah averages roughly 75.0 points per game while shooting around 45% from the field, but defensive lapses have been costly, as the Utes allow about 78.3 points per contest in league play. Despite the record, Utah has shown flashes of competitiveness against quality opponents, including a recent effort versus Iowa State where Terrence Brown poured in 18 points and Keanu Dawes added a double-double. The Utes also battled Arizona State earlier this season in a 71-63 loss, trimming a sizable deficit late and showing the resilience needed to hang around in this rematch.

Arizona State enters averaging close to 78 points per game while allowing nearly 79, illustrating their up and down defensive profile. Maurice Odum (17.2 PPG) leads the Sun Devils offensively, with Massamba Diop anchoring the interior presence. While ASU owns the better overall record and benefits from home court, their inconsistency on the defensive end leaves the door open for opponents to stay within striking distance. If Utah can limit turnovers, control the defensive glass, and capitalize on ASU’s transition vulnerabilities, this game profiles as tighter than the spread suggests. With both teams prone to scoring droughts and momentum swings, taking the points in a competitive conference battle offers value.

Utah vs Arizona State Prediction: Utah +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +5.5

Another Saturday slate of college hoops is here, and that means that we have an excellent clash in the Big 12 on our hands. This week, the biggest game on the docket takes place in Tuscon, where the Arizona Wildcats are set to host the Kansas Jayhawks in a rematch of what was one of the best games of the season a few weeks ago. Kansas was able to spring the upset at Allen Fieldhouse in that matchup, despite not having the services of Darryn Peterson for that game. Instead, it was the big man combination of Flory Bidunga controlling the paint and Bryson Tiller knocking down pivotal shots that led the way for an undermanned Jayhawks team at home. Arizona has bounced back nicely since that loss, including a very impressive win at Houston a week ago. Kansas is coming off a victory against that very same Houston team, so the natural line of thinking would be to trust Arizona to exact a bit of revenge at home against a Jayhawks team that is coming off a massive win of their own. However, the number is a bit inflated given the spot and a bit of positive injury news for the Wildcats heading into this game. 

Arizona has been without star forward Koa Peat for the last few games due to a leg injury, but the freshman phenom will make his return at home on Saturday. However, Peat was fairly ineffective in that game (6 points on 2-of-11 shooting) and its not a guarantee that he’ll instantly provide a massive boost for the Wildcats offense. It’s worth mentioning that Kansas’ defense is one of the best in the nation and currently sits inside the top 10 in adjusted efficiency over the past month. The Jayhawks even lost the battle on the boards in the previous meeting and were still able to win the game with their defensive intensity and discipline. Kansas is not only a very effective defense at the rim, but Bill Self’s team has been able to defend the basket at a high level without fouling, as the Jayhawks are 8th in free-throw rate allowed since the start of Big 12 play. The concerns for Kansas come on the other side of the ball, seeing as Arizona is a top 10 defense and will certainly be focused on keeping the Jayhawk guards out of the paint. It remains to be seen if Peterson and Melvin Council Jr. will be able to bounce back from their subpar shooting efforts earlier this week, but even if both players struggle in this one (or if Peterson exits the game for any reason), Kansas should be able able to figure enough things out to stay within single digits on the road. I’m expecting more of a defensive battle than what the market projects, and that aligns with backing the underdog in this spot.

Kansas vs Arizona prediction: Kansas +10.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Kansas +9.5

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Texas and Texas A&M are set to face off for the second time this season as the Longhorns look to get revenge following their 74-70 loss to the Aggies back in January. Texas played well early in its last matchup against then-#7 Florida, leading at halftime, but the Gators pulled away in the second half as the Longhorns ran out of steam. Texas A&M is also coming off a tough loss to Arkansas in which it struggled to keep up with the Razorbacks’ offensive tempo and depth. These 2 teams are fairly even heading into this matchup. The Aggies rank fourth in the SEC in scoring, averaging 88.7 points per game, while the Longhorns rank seventh with 84.6 points per game. Defensively, however, Texas holds the advantage — allowing 75.7 points per game compared to Texas A&M’s 79.0. 

Nothing the Longhorns do is spectacular, but they have been consistent. Dailyn Swain leads Texas with 18 points and 7.3 rebounds per game, and he has been playing some of his best basketball in the second half of the season. The Aggies’ leading scorer is Rashaun Agee, who is averaging 14.1 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. Both teams have plenty of offensive talent and depth, but the key for Texas in this matchup will be defending the paint, preventing the Aggies from getting out in transition and limiting turnovers. In the previous meeting, Texas A&M capitalized on those mistakes — scoring 15 points off 8 Longhorn turnovers, which ultimately helped seal the win. However, expect the Longhorns to tighten things up defensively in this rematch. If it can limit turnovers and control the pace, Texas should be able to keep this rivalry matchup close on the road. 

Texas vs Texas A&M prediction: Texas +3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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A key battle at the top of the Big 12 on Saturday features the Iowa State Cyclones hosting the Texas Tech Red Raiders. These teams are in a 4-way tie for 2^nd in the loaded Big 12 at 11-4 in the conference. Iowa State split a tough road trip in Utah last week, losing to BYU and surviving the Utes. Texas Tech lost JT Toppin in a loss at Arizona State, but then had a soft landing with Kansas State and Cincinnati after that. Saturday will be the real test of how the Red Raiders fare without Toppin. This number is big, but I am backing the Cyclones -9.5.

I have serious concerns about Tech without Toppin. He was probably the best player in the conference, and while the Red Raiders have done well so far in his absence, playing at Iowa State is just a different animal altogether. Hilton Coliseum is one of the biggest home court advantages in the sport, and the last time the Cyclones were at home, they beat both Kansas and Houston during the homestand. The Cyclones are undefeated at home, and they are tracking for a #1 seed in the Dance. Still, they do not draw nearly the attention that the other top teams do, and people still don’t recognize how good they really are. I think Texas Tech is in trouble on the road against a superior team, and we will really feel the absence of Toppin in this spot.

Texas Tech vs Iowa State Prediction: Iowa State -9.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Winners of 7 straight, the Alabama Crimson Tide take the nation’s 6th-longest active win streak into Knoxville, seeking revenge against the Tennessee Volunteers. When these teams met in Tuscaloosa at the end of January, the Vols took care of business against the shorthanded Tide, controlling the glass and limiting the Tide to just 6-of-26 from distance without Amari Allen and Aden Holloway – Alabama’s 2 best perimeter shooters. This time around, Alabama should have their full complement of players, as Labaron Philon is expected to return following a 1-game absence. 

The Volunteers return home after a loss at Missouri on Tuesday, a game in which they turned the ball over 15 times, connected on fewer than 30% of perimeter attempts and shot just 57% from the free throw line. Tennessee grabbed 18 offensive rebounds and Missouri made just 4 threes in that contest, so the opportunity was there for the Volunteers to steal a road victory despite a poor showing.

Sporting the highest three-point rate in the country, Alabama is the king of variance. If the Tide are hitting their perimeter shots, they are unbeatable. Conversely, if they make fewer than 10 threes like they did in the first meeting with Tennessee, they’re vulnerable against almost anyone. Fortunately for the Tide, they’re going to have plenty of opportunities to regress back to the mean against Tennessee on Saturday, as the Vols are 329th nationally and dead last in the SEC in three-point rate allowed. 

With Allen and Holloway involved this time around, I’m expecting a more efficient shooting performance from Alabama, who has connected on 39.2% of perimeter attempts since February 1st. In that same span, Tennessee is 257th in effective field goal percentage and 330th in three-point rate, so if the Tide get hot, it may be difficult for the Vols to consistently respond. Not to mention, Tennessee has the worst turnover rate and the 3rd-worst free throw percentage in the SEC, which are worrisome metrics for bettors laying points with any favorite, let alone one playing an Alabama team that doesn’t turn the ball over and has shooting upside from anywhere in the gym.

Alabama vs Tennessee prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide +4.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +3.5. 

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The game of the night in the Big East features the Villanova Wildcats at the St. John’s Red Storm. St. John’s, of course, is coming off an embarrassing loss at UConn in which it infamously missed its final 24 shots from the field. The temptation here is to overreact and decide that the Red Storm are a bad team — or a bad shooting team — and start fading them. That would be a mistake. We might live the rest of our lives and never see a team miss its final 24 shots — and certainly not team that is, in fact, good. It is just one of those wild outlier moments that, of course, only happens when you bet on a team (as I did). The Johnnies need a bounce-back game, and I am backing them at -7.5.

Villanova is a good basketball team. The ‘Cats are in third in the Big East and they are basically handling everyone not named UConn and St. John’s — who account for 3 of their 4 conference losses. The Wildcats are good, but surely St. John’s comes out playing angry. This is a team with a top 20 defense that plays fast, attacks the rim and shoots a ton of free throws. Villanova is going to have to value the basketball, score on its first shot attempt often and keep the Johnnies off the foul line. I don’t think the Wildcats can do that for 40 minutes. This is a pride game for the Red Storm.

Villanova vs St. John’s prediction: St. John’s -7.5 (-115) available at time of publication. Playable at that number.

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Winners in 8 of their last 10, the Arkansas Razorbacks are 11-4 in SEC play, tied with Alabama at 2nd in the conference behind the very Florida team they play in Gainesville on Saturday in primetime. The defending champions are on an 8-game win streak – the nation’s 5th longest – while boasting a 13-2 conference record, and they’re dominating teams in the process given 7 of those 8 wins were by at least 13 points. 

At first glance, this is a massive number to lay with Florida against what is a very good Arkansas team. However, I like Florida here, mostly because of how bad Arkansas has been defensively of late – particularly around the rim. Over their last 5 games, the Razorbacks are in the 29th percentile nationally in defensive rating, 15th percentile in defensive rebounding rate and 2nd percentile in paint points allowed per game (CBBAnalytics), which are alarming weaknesses to have against a Florida front court with tremendous size and championship pedigree. With the 3-headed monster of Rueben Chinyelu, Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh, the Gators are among the nation’s best offensively, particularly in the paint and on the offensive glass – exactly where Arkansas is deficient. 

The Razorbacks feel like a one-man show at times with Darius Acuff. He’s a special talent, but Arkansas will likely need more in order to cover this number, much less have a chance to win. Florida will counter him with Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland, who both grade as top-12 defenders in the SEC per EvanMiya’s DBPR. In fact, Florida’s entire starting lineup is in the top 12 of the conference and top 80 nationally in that regard, limiting activity around the rim and contesting threes with their length at an elite level – particularly in the corners where Arkansas is in the 87th percentile in shot frequency. Florida should dominate the glass and get whatever they want in the paint and around the rim all game long, while it could be a long night for the Razorbacks if a Robin doesn’t arise to aid Acuff’s role as Batman. Give me the Gators. 

Arkansas vs Florida prediction: Florida Gators -9.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -10.5. 

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North Carolina’s brand inflates spreads and the number reflects that as much as its performance profile. The Tar Heels are 22-6 overall and ranked, but their résumé shows volatility — particularly away from dominant stretches. They have taken multiple conference losses by more than the spread (including an 82-58 loss at NC State and a 75-66 setback at Miami), and even at home they have been forced into close finishes — including a narrow 77-74 win over Louisville. This is a team that is far from infallible.

Virginia Tech’s profile fits the underdog script. The Hokies are 18-10 SU (7-8 ACC) and have already proven they can compete in tough environments — including a 76-66 road win at Clemson and multiple 1-possession conference games. They can also tit-for-tat with the Tar Heels in terms of scoring, as both parties average output is separated by fewer than 2 points per game. Once again, the key angle is pricing. North Carolina’s name and ranking create a premium — especially if it is playing in Chapel Hill. The market is charging for reputation and home aura, not UNC being markedly better. The Hokies can hang around and maybe even pull an upset. Let’s take the points.

Virginia Tech vs North Carolina prediction: Virginia Tech +6.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +6.

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The Grand Canyon Antelopes (18-10, 11-6 Mountain West) travel to Logan to face the Utah State Aggies (23-5, 13-4 Mountain West) in a pivotal late-season conference matchup. Grand Canyon has leaned on balanced scoring and rebounding all year, averaging 75.0 points and 34.5 rebounds per game. Jaden Henley (17.0 ppg) leads the offensive attack, while Nana Owusu-Anane anchors the glass at 8.6 boards per contest. The Antelopes proved earlier this season they can compete in this matchup, knocking off Utah State 84-74 behind efficient shooting and strong guard play. When Grand Canyon controls tempo and finishes around the rim, they can pressure even elite Mountain West opponents.

Utah State, however, has been one of the league’s most consistent teams — averaging about 84.1 points per game while allowing just 69.1. The Aggies shoot better than 50% from the field and have been dominant at home, posting a 12-1 record in Logan. Michael Collins Jr. (around 18.3 ppg) headlines a balanced offense that can score in transition or efficiently execute in the half court. Utah State also rebounds well and converts defensive stops into high-percentage opportunities, a key factor against Grand Canyon’s physical style. While the Antelopes’ earlier win shows this matchup can be competitive, the Aggies’ shooting efficiency, defensive discipline and home-court edge position them to respond convincingly.

Grand Canyon vs Utah State prediction: Utah State -9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -10.

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One of the best games of the weekend comes at the mid-major level, as we’ll see a battle in the WCC between the Gonzaga Bulldogs and Saint Mary’s Gaels to finish out Saturday’s card. These teams are certainly familiar with each other, and most of the country is likely aware that this is the premier rivalry in the conference on a year-to-year basis. Both teams have been in excellent form over the past few weeks as well, with these sides combining to post a 12-0 record since February 7. The Gaels are fresh off a massive win over Santa Clara that essentially stamped their legitimacy as an NCAA Tournament team for yet another season, while the Bulldogs just demolished Portland for a sixth straight victory. This is a series that has been very close in recent years, and one that has quietly become defined by defense. With that in mind, while I do lean toward the visitors completing the regular-season sweep, I’m going to focus on what should be a lower-scoring game than what the market projects. 

Both of these teams boat very good defenses (ranked 11th and 25th, respectively, in adjusted efficiency), and that has shown itself to be the case throughout conference play. In fact, Saint Mary’s is 10-7 to the under in WCC play, while Gonzaga is a whopping 13-4 to the under in league games. It’s clear that since it lost star forward Braden Huff to injury over a month ago, Mark Few’s team has really focused on slowing the game down and simply executing better than its opponents late in the shock clock. Graham Ike has obviously been a force in the paint on both ends, but it also can’t be understated that this is the best Gonzaga defense as a unit since at least the 2021-22 team, a group that had Chet Holmgren as its anchor inside. The Bulldogs should be able to control the paint in this matchup, which is part of how they were able to rally from a halftime deficit and dominate the final 20 minutes en route to an 8-point victory in the previous meeting. We know that Saint Mary’s is going to play extremely slow, with the Gaels ranked 282nd in adjusted tempo per KenPom — and that has generally translated into these matchups. A whopping 21 of the last 30 meetings have stayed under the total, so let’s bank on another lower-scoring affair in what is sure to be an excellent matchup on Saturday.

Gonzaga vs St. Mary’s prediction: Under 144.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 143.5 

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