College Football Picks

Last week, Nebraska was one of the public dogs of the weekend, taking back nearly double digits against a 4–6 Penn State team, and bettors lined up on the Cornhuskers thinking the price was auspicious. Penn State ended up blasting them 37–10, and just like that, the market has completely swung the other direction, now piling onto Iowa simply because the Huskers let them down. It also helps that the Hawkeyes have won nine of the last ten meetings.

But this line — sitting under a touchdown — is the giveaway. The oddsmakers aren’t willing to hang a big number despite Iowa’s dominance in the rivalry along with the fact they were a CFP hopeful, just weeks ago. That tells you Nebraska isn’t coming in flat. The Huskers were embarrassed last week, and teams often show their true form after a humiliation, especially when returning home against a rival that has had their number. Iowa’s offensive limitations always leave the door open, and the number suggests danger for the Hawkeyes. Forget the points, Nebraska pulls the upset.

Iowa vs Nebraska prediction: Nebraska +180 (Money Line) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

The Old Oaken Bucket rivalry creates unique dynamics every season, but this year the contrast between these two programs makes the matchup especially intriguing from a betting standpoint. Indiana comes in at 11–0, staring at a potential 12–0 regular season and preparing for a monumental Big Ten Championship showdown — possibly against the defending national champions and current No. 1 team in the country. That is where every ounce of Indiana’s emotional and strategic attention is directed. Beating Purdue is expected; beating Ohio State is the real task. And because of that, this week becomes a textbook flat spot.

Indiana has absolutely no incentive to run up the score. The Hoosiers are already playoff-bound and with the biggest game in program history a week away, Coach Cig will be cautious. Protecting starters, limiting the injury risk, shortening the game, and avoiding unnecessary physicality are all priorities. If Indiana gets up early, the likelihood of them calling off the dogs is extremely high. Purdue, on the other hand, is 2–9 with no Big Ten wins — but that makes this their bowl game. Teams with nothing left to play for except pride often bring their sharpest effort in rivalry week. Purdue doesn’t need to win outright to cash; they simply need to compete with intensity and take advantage of Indiana’s predictable conservatism. The spread assumes Indiana plays four full quarters at peak motivation — something that is nearly impossible to expect given the timing, the stakes, and the injury risks. Purdue, meanwhile, walks in loose, motivated, and with every reason to empty the playbook. In spots like this, the big dog is exactly the right side.

Indiana vs Purdue prediction: Purdue +28 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

The striking part of this matchup is the line itself. Florida is 3–8, fresh off a primetime blowout loss to Tennessee, and by all logic should not be laying points to anyone — yet they are a two-point favorite over a Florida State team fighting for bowl eligibility at 5–6. That alone tells you where the oddsmakers are leaning.

This is Florida’s final game, the end of a forgettable season before a coaching reset. But rivalry games create their own reality, and this is the last chance for the Gators to take something meaningful into the offseason. More importantly, a win here would eliminate Florida State from bowl contention, a program that was ranked inside the top 10 earlier this year. That kind of spoiler motivation matters. Florida State has its own revenge narrative after last year’s loss, and on paper the Seminoles look like an attractive underdog. But if the team fighting for its postseason life were truly in the stronger position, they wouldn’t be catching points from a 3-8 opponent. The Gators have nothing left to lose, complete freedom to empty the playbook, and home-field intensity behind them. Florida State, despite the bowl motivation, has struggled to handle pressure in key moments all season. The market is signaling clearly: Florida is the right side.

Florida State vs Florida prediction: Florida -2 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

If Auburn is going to have any shot at winning the Iron Bowl, the path is narrow and very clear: they cannot get dragged into a track meet. The Tigers have struggled offensively all season, and every competitive performance they’ve put together has come in low-scoring, grind-it-out games. The blueprint is already on film. In their 16–10 loss to Texas A&M, they kept the pyrotechnics in check. Oklahoma beat them by only seven while scoring just 24. Georgia needed four quarters to reach 20 points. Even Missouri—a game that went to overtime—barely made it to 23.

This is who Auburn is. Their best chance is to slow Alabama down, limit possessions, and bring a physical, disruptive defensive presence that keeps the crowd alive. The alternative—allowing Alabama’s offense, with Ty Simpson and their receiving weapons, to find rhythm—is a death sentence. Auburn simply cannot keep pace if the game opens up. If Auburn is going to pull this off, the game has to be played on their terms: defense, field position, pressure, and chaos. We like them to do that and if that style is low scoring. Thus, the Under is the play.

Alabama vs Auburn prediction: Under 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to Under 48.

The Iron Bowl is one of the most chaotic, logic-defying rivalries in college football, and Auburn finds itself in the exact type of spoiler role where strange things tend to happen. Jordan-Hare Stadium has been a house of horrors for Alabama for decades, and the Tigers enter this matchup with absolutely nothing to lose. At 5–6, Auburn either wins and reaches a low-tier December bowl—which doesn’t mean much to this program—or misses the postseason entirely. But none of that matters compared to the chance to wreck Alabama’s entire season.

And the stakes for the Tide couldn’t be higher. A third loss would eliminate them from the playoff. It would also end their SEC Championship hopes, since it would give them a second conference loss and lock in both Georgia and Texas A&M. Alabama needs this game for survival; Auburn needs it for pride. That dynamic often flips the script in this rivalry. This is Auburn’s championship game, their last swing, and the final emotional surge after firing Hugh Freeze. When a rivalry consistently subverts logic and the underdog is live, you take the shot. The number says Auburn is dangerous. War Eagle

Alabama vs Auburn prediction: Auburn +170 ML available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.