College Football Picks

The Ole Miss Rebels meet the Georgia Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl in a rematch from a regular season matchup that saw the Bulldogs come away with an 8-point win in Athens. While the Ole Miss offense found a ton of success in the first meeting, being one of only three team to score more than 20 points against the Bulldogs in 2025, I expect a different outcome this time around. The Georgia defense has been on an absolute tear; the Bulldogs allowed just 7.25 points per game in their last four games and rank top-25 in EPA/rush, EPA/dropback and quality drive rate allowed. 

On the other side of the ball, the Rebels’ defense has had its moments, but also its fair share of struggles. Georgia remains one of the most well-rounded teams in the country, also holding top-25 marks in all three aforementioned categories on offense. Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss and company looked the part in round one against an inferior Tulane squad, but this is a different level. I’ll lean on the coaching of Kirby Smart and the playoff experience on this UGA roster in a rematch while the Rebels are without Lane Kiffin. I’ve got Georgia covering on Thursday.

Ole Miss vs Georgia prediction: Georgia -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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The College Football Playoffs have several enticing matchups including the rematch of the Ole Miss Rebels and Georgia Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl. While these squads combined for 78 points in the first matchup, I don’t expect the same offensive fireworks in a do-or-die spot like the playoffs. While Ole Miss looked like a well-oiled machine against Group of 5 side Tulane in round one, it’s tough to say coaching won’t be a factor as the Rebels go deeper into the playoffs without Lane Kiffin on the sideline. The stakes are as high as they come, and Georgia has likely the most experienced head coach in the country when it comes to the CFB Playoff format with Kirby Smart lining up on the opposite sideline.

Both Ole Miss and Georgia are 4-1 to the under in their last 5 games this season, mostly due to improved defensive play. Georgia has allowed a whopping 8 points per game throughout that stretch while Ole Miss holds a solid top-20 mark in EPA/dropback defensively and a top-35 defensive success rate figure. As the favorite and more experience team, I expect Georgia’s offense to control the pace of this game, a unit that ranks 115th in FBS in plays per second. The Bulldogs will want to slow the tempo compared to the first meeting, and I’ll take the under in the Sugar Bowl matchup.

Ole Miss vs Georgia prediction: Under 56.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

Catching more than two touchdowns in a bowl game in itself could offer tremendous equity. This is especially true considering the profile of the favorite. The Bobcats have a penchant for shootouts and their defense is not a feature of their approach. Texas State’s identity is clear – tempo, explosiveness, and aggression on offense, paired with a defense that can absolutely leak yards and points. That’s not the kind of profile conducive to laying two full scores. Games that often turn into track meets make it naturally harder to separate and sit on a big margin for four quarters. That is what the Cats bring to the table here.

Rice, meanwhile, will be overlooked because they only got a bowl invite since so many others declined. But that makes them dangerous here because they are playing with house money. Add in an enhanced point allotment and a porous defense, this dog has the DNA to get us home. Texas State may be a “sexy” favorite but they are also not built to be laying this kind of margin. However, high-scoring outfits are teams that casual bettors have a tendency to like to ride even if there is voltaility that accompanies them. We won’t follow suit though. We know Rice doesn’t need to be perfect; they just need to hang around, trade scores, and avoid the avalanche. Texas State’s defense makes that feasible.

Rice vs Texas State prediction: Rice Owls +14 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

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Following a New Year’s holiday loaded with College Football Playoff action, the bowl season draws near a close with its final remaining day containing multiple games. Among them is the Liberty Bowl in Memphis pitting the Navy Midshipmen and the Cincinnati Bearcats. Navy finished the season at 10-2, good for 3rd in the American Athletic Conference. Meanwhile, Cincinnati finished at 7-5 and 10th in the Big 12. Oddly enough, this used to be a conference matchup back when the Bearcats were in the AAC. This will be the first time they have met since November 2022.

There are a good bit of opt-outs for Cincinnati – including starting QB Brendson Sorsby – while Navy will maybe have a couple. Service academies tend to excel in bowl games due to their players’ commitment to their respective programs, as their rosters are typically at full strength in the postseason. Much will be the same here, and the market acknowledges that and has reacted to the difference in player availability – swinging the line more than a touchdown in Navy’s favor. As such, I don’t see much value in the spread at the current number, but I could only side with Navy here. 

Cincinnati has been absolutely eviscerated by opposing rushing attacks of late. In their 4-game losing streak down the stretch, the Bearcats surrendered 174 yards to TCU’s Jeremy Payne, 222 yards to BYU’s LJ Martin, nearly 200 yards to Arizona’s trio of running backs and 267 team rushing yards against Utah. That doesn’t bode well against an offense like Navy, as the Midshipmen are one of the most run-heavy teams in the country. I just don’t see how Cincinnati will be able to consistently limit Navy’s rushing attack or answer the Midshipmen’s points without Sorsby. 

Navy vs Cincinnati prediction: Navy Midshipmen -7.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -8. 

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The Wake Forest Demon Deacons will look to finish their season tied for the most wins in the program’s last 25 seasons. Wake Forest finished with nine wins in 2021 and 2006. The Demon Deacons have a record of 8-4 this season, and they finished their season winning three of their last four games. They lost their last game against Duke 49-32. Quarterback Robby Ashford led the team with 342 yards passing and 2 touchdowns. Duke went on to win the ACC Championship, but the loss should not take away from the great season Wake Forest had. Their opponent for this game will be the 5-7 Mississippi State Bulldogs. Mississippi State ended their season losing their last three games. The Bulldogs still got the bowl game bid with enough teams in front of them declining the opportunity to play. Their last three losses of the season came against Georgia, Missouri, and Ole Miss. All three losses came by a total of 19 points or more. 

After wins to end the season against SMU, Virginia, and North Carolina, a win in a bowl game would finish off one of the most successful seasons that Wake Forest’s program has had in recent years. First-year head coach Jake Dickert will have his team inspired to play, but he will have to go into this game missing some key contributors. Running back Demond Claiborne will miss this game in preparation for the NFL draft, and defensive tackle Mateen Ibirogba will miss due to the transfer portal. Success will depend on senior quarterback Robby Ashford. Ashford finished his season throwing for 2169 yards, and he ran for another 504 yards. Good news for Wake Forest is that Mississippi State will likely be without quarterback Blake Shapen as he prepares for the NFL Draft. With 2433 yards passing and 15 touchdowns, Shapen was the bright spot on this Mississippi State offense. Freshman quarterback Kamario Taylor will have to join a roster that failed to compete, and backed by a defense that allowed 29.2 points per game.

Wake Forest +3 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at the ML.

The opening round of the College Football Playoff is behind us, and there are now just 8 teams remaining in the pursuit of a National Championship. Earlier this month, the 5th-seeded Oregon Ducks made quick work of James Madison to advance to this round, while the 4th-seeded Texas Tech Red Raiders had a bye in the opening round following a 12-1 season and a routine victory in the Big 12 title game. Which of these teams will come out on top in the Orange Bowl on New Year’s Day and advance to the semifinals? It’s almost time to find out. 

Given that this is the shortest spread on the board for the CFP quarterfinal round, this has the feeling of a game that should come down to the wire. Therefore, it’s hard to find a ton of clear advantages for either side in Thursday’s game. However, Oregon has a few edges that it should be able to exploit in this matchup. For starters, the Ducks have the better quarterback in the game, and Dante Moore should also be getting back 2 of his top 3 wide receivers in Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. for this matchup. The jury is still out on if Evan Stewart is going to suit up on Thursday, but considering that Stewart hasn’t played for the entire season to this point, his absence isn’t anything new for Will Stein’s offense. With Moore and Bryant Jr. joining the dynamic and explosive Malik Benson in the lineup, this gives the Ducks a formidable trio of targets on the outside, to go along with All-American tight end Kenyon Sadiq at the tight end spot. Oregon is expected to have its top 3 running backs available for this matchup as well, so it’s hard not to be confident in the Ducks’ ability to manufacture offense in this one, even against an excellent Red Raiders defense. 

While Joey McGuire’s defense has been one of the top 5 units in the sport this season, Texas Tech’s issue in this game could be its offense. The Red Raiders certainly have a good offense — albeit one that has been the beneficiary of a somewhat weak schedule of opposing defenses — but there have been clear limitations for this group both on the ground and inside the red zone this season. After all, Texas Tech is just 50th in rushing success rate and 28th in points per drive on offense. In a game that is projected to be close throughout, just one or two failed red zone trips could decide the outcome. With that in mind, I can only side with Oregon to knock off the Red Raiders and advance to the College Football Playoff semifinals.

Oregon vs Texas Tech prediction: Oregon ML (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

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While both offenses certainly have the capability to put up points in a game that should be played in relatively favorable weather conditions on Thursday, I’m projecting that scoring should be tougher than most would expect in this matchup. For starters, both teams are anchored by their stout defenses, as each unit ranks inside the top 15 nationally in success rate and points per drive allowed on the season. It’s also worth mentioning that each defense has been able to step up in their biggest games of the season to this point, and there’s no real reason to shy away from that trend in this one.

As previously mentioned, it’s hard for any offense to move the ball on this elite Texas Tech defense, as the Red Raiders are 1st in the nation in opponent EPA per play and tops in the country in both Early Downs EPA and quality drive rate allowed. On the other side, I can imagine that some will point to Oregon’s lackluster performance in the 4th quarter against James Madison as a sign of what a better offense could do to the Ducks defense, but it’s important to remember that most of the players on the field in that fourth quarter were backups in a game that was already well out of hand early in the second half. Both defenses should be locked in for a game where red zone success rate could prove to be the difference. I’ll grab the under while it’s still above a key number.

Oregon vs Texas Tech prediction: Under 52.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 51.5.

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The opening round of the College Football Playoff is behind us, and there are now just 8 teams remaining in the pursuit of a National Championship. Earlier this month, the 9th-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide rallied from a 17-0 deficit against Oklahoma to knock off the Sooners and advance to the quarterfinal round, while the top-seeded Indiana Hoosiers had a bye in the opening round following an undefeated regular season and a victory in the Big Ten title game. Which of these teams will come out on top in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day and advance to the semifinals? It’s almost time to find out. 

Heading into the season, I was very high on Alabama’s chances of capturing a national championship given all of the talent on the roster and the upside of what this team could be. However, the Crimson Tide have not exactly been the team I thought they would be prior to the campaign. With that in mind, it’s hard to ignore the value that we’re getting on Indiana to win Thursday’s contest by only a touchdown in a game where the Hoosiers should hold plenty of advantages. Not only do the Hoosiers have Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza on their side, but Indiana’s extremely balanced offense (2nd in success rate, 2nd in EPA per play, 3rd in points per drive) should see consistent success against an Alabama defense that has struggled at points against teams with strong passing attacks. The Crimson Tide are also operating at a significant disadvantage on special teams in this game, and that is certainly a factor that could rear its ugly head on Thursday. 

While the Alabama defense can be inconsistent, it’s still a solid unit across the board all things considered. However, the Crimson Tide have more questions on offense, if you can believe that. After all, Kalen DeBoer’s team has not been able to effectively run the ball all season long, and those struggles continued into their matchup with Oklahoma a few weeks ago. Jam Miller has been banged up, and even if he does end up playing in this one, it’s far from a guarantee that Alabama will suddenly see success on the ground against an Indiana defense that is 3rd in rushing success rate allowed and 2nd in opponent EPA per rush. Ty Simpson has struggled when pressured this season and the Hoosiers secondary just performed well against Ohio State’s outstanding trio of wide receivers, so I wouldn’t expect them to be intimidated by the Crimson Tide wideouts. Ultimately, I can only look toward laying the points with the top-ranked team in the nation.

Alabama vs Indiana prediction: Indiana -6.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to Indiana -7

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Despite the fact that both offenses have the capability of putting up points, I actually believe that we’re getting a point or two of value on the under in a game where both defenses should have their say by the time the game ends. On one side, the Indiana defense is one of the best units in the nation, as we saw against the likes of Oregon and Ohio State this season. Time and again, the Hoosiers have proven that their success up front is no flue, and they should be able to dominate the matchup against a middling Alabama offensive line and put pressure on Ty Simpson as a result.

As for the Crimson Tide, this is not a vintage Nick Saban era defense, but Kane Womack is still one of the better defensive minds in the country, and I expect his unit to respond to the challenge against an Indiana offense that has largely done what its wanted to against any opponent all season long. Let’s roll with the under on Thursday.

Alabama vs Indiana prediction: Under 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 48.

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