College Basketball Picks

The early afternoon slate includes an ACC tilt between the Syracuse Orange and the Virginia Cavaliers. Syracuse comes into this game struggling, having dropped 5 of their last 6 games. Virginia is in a battle for the ACC title, sitting at 8-2 in the conference and trailing only Duke and Clemson. It seems like a game that the Cavaliers should win, and probably win comfortably, but I am not convinced I want to play this spread line. After all, Virginia has not been blowing out opponents lately, for the most part, and that isn’t really their style. Instead, I prefer the game total under 147 in this spot.

Virginia’s style of play is exhausting for opponents. The pack line defense is gone, but this is still an elite defensive team. Now, they chase you furiously and try to force opponents into quick, bad shots. Once they get the ball, they play slow and force opponents to guard for 30 seconds. If you don’t make those quick looks against the Hoos, the game can turn into a grind. Syracuse has some talented guards, and they should be able to hold up to the pressure, but the Orange are not a great shooting team, and Virginia just doesn’t give up a lot of open jumpers. Syracuse is a good defensive team in their own right though, and it might be enough to keep them in this game. I project this one more in the 75-65 range. I’ll take the under.

Syracuse vs Virginia Prediction: Under 147 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Georgetown’s four-game win streak in the Big East will be put to the test on Saturday as they welcome Villanova. The Hoyas have played exceptionally well as of late, averaging 76 points per game while holding opponents to just 67.8 points per game in that span. Before this recent stretch, Georgetown suffered close losses to UConn by two points and Creighton by three in overtime – two teams ahead of them in the Big East standings. With only a handful of games remaining, this is a must-win game for the Hoyas as they look to shake up the conference race. 

The last time these two teams met, Villanova walked away with a 66-51 victory on their home court. Georgetown shot just 34% from the floor while allowing Villanova to shoot 40.7%. The Hoyas didn’t shoot great, hitting just 34% of their shots, but that’s not what ultimately cost them that game. It was their turnovers, they had 17, that turned into 20 points for Villanova. Even though KJ Lewis has been playing well for Georgetown, averaging 17.8 points per game over his last four, he’ll face a tough challenge against this Villanova defense. Both teams play solid defense, but Villanova’s depth and ability to shoot at a more efficient rate will be the difference here. The Wildcats have also been strong on the road, going 5-2 away from home, so playing on the road shouldn’t be an issue. Villanova is simply the more complete team on both ends of the floor, and for that reason, that’s why I’ll be backing the Wildcats as a slight favorite on the road. 

Villanova vs Georgetown prediction: Villanova -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Wisconsin Badgers will travel to Bloomington on Saturday for a Big Ten game against the Indiana Hoosiers. These two Midwest schools will play just once this season, and it will be inside the Hoosiers’ home gym. It will be difficult for either Wisconsin or Indiana to win the league, but a win here but put them one win closer to the top end of the Big Ten. The Badgers are 8-3 in the league and have own of the biggest wins of the season (they went into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan). I believe Wisconsin is the more talented team, so I’m taking the visitors to cover.

The Badgers have won 8 of their last 9 games and are near the top of the conference. They have been effective on the road this year with 3 wins already away from home during league play. The Hoosiers have been inconsistent this season and I think that could affect them again on Saturday. They lost 4 straight games before going on a 3-game winning streak, then followed that up with a loss to USC in their last game. Indiana has dropped 2 home games already this season, and while I do not expect it to lose this one, I do see Wisconsin keeping it close. Let’s back the Badgers.

Wisconsin vs Indiana prediction: Wisconsin +4.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +4.

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The Purdue Boilermakers host the Oregon Ducks in a B1G matchup on Saturday afternoon. The Boilermakers are one of the nation’s elite teams, but they have hit a rough patch lately. They have dropped 3 of their last 4 games, which also coincides with a heavy stretch of road games (4 of their last 5). They will look to get back on track against the beat-up and struggling Ducks, who have lost 8 straight and have fallen to 1-10 in the conference standings. For Oregon, the problem has been injuries. This is a giant spread, and it is hard to feel really confident about playing a spread this large in a conference game, but I think it is the most likely outcome on Saturday. Give me Purdue -20.5.

For Oregon, the injuries have wrecked the season. Guard Jackson Shelstad remains out, among other players, and while leading scorer Nate Bittle is officially listed as questionable, it would be a surprise to see him return in this spot. Without those guys, this Oregon team is in shambles, and they really don’t do anything well. Purdue, on the other hand, does seemingly everything well. They rebound the heck out of the ball, and they defend everything. They do not play fast, but their offense is ruthlessly efficient. They just blasted Maryland by 30 on the road, and assuming Bittle doesn’t return for this matchup, the Boilermakers may do the same thing to the Ducks here. This is a bad spot for Oregon, and they will probably just end up taking their medicine.

Oregon vs Purdue Prediction: Purdue -20.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Baylor Bears find themselves on their first win streak in conference play, having won each of their last 2 over West Virginia and Colorado. However, a road trip to Ames to play the Iowa State Cyclones might put an end to that. These teams met once already this season in early January, and it was Iowa State that won 70-60 in Waco despite a poor offensive performance. Iowa State’s defense stole the show, holding Baylor to 0.87 points per possession on 40% shooting from two-point range and just 18.5% beyond the three-point line, while forcing 14 turnovers. 

Iowa State’s defense is built to suffocate Baylor’s play style. The Bears look for a majority of their offensive production around the rim, off the dribble, in the mid-range and in transition. Unfortunately for them, the Cyclones are elite in all of those areas defensively, limiting attempts at the rim and transition opportunities as well as any team in the country – especially against top-100 opponents – while ranking in the 93rd percentile or better against opposing attempts in the mid-range and off the dribble (Hoop-Explorer). In the first meeting, Iowa State held Baylor to 0 points off the dribble, 0.4 points per possession on mid-range attempts, and just 0.86 points per possession in transition. Moreover, the Bears averaged just 0.60 points per possession at the rim.

In the return game at home, I expect Iowa State to look much better offensively. This is a team that averages close to 91 points per game at home with nearly a 62% effective field goal percentage – which ranks 5th nationally. Meanwhile, Baylor surrenders more than 75 points per road game and has struggled to contain their best offensive opponents all season long.

Baylor vs Iowa State prediction: Iowa State Cyclones -14.5 (-120) at the time of publishing. Playable to -16.5.

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The Utah Utes (9-13, 1-8 Big 12) travel to Allen Fieldhouse on Saturday to face the No. 11 Kansas Jayhawks (17-5, 7-2 Big 12) in a Big 12 matchup that looks lopsided on paper. Kansas enters riding a five game winning streak, including strong conference victories over Texas Tech and BYU, and remains dominant at home with a 9-1 record in Lawrence. The Jayhawks have leaned on balanced production, strong defensive rebounding, and physical half court defense to control games, allowing just 67.7 points per game, one of the better marks in the conference. Kansas also limits second chance opportunities effectively and consistently wins the battle in the paint, key factors behind its recent surge and continued Big 12 contention.

Utah, meanwhile, has struggled mightily in league play, sitting at 1-8 in the Big 12 after recent losses exposed ongoing defensive issues. The Utes are allowing approximately 81.0 points per game, a stark contrast to Kansas’ defensive efficiency, and road consistency has been a major concern. Still, Utah has enough offensive firepower to remain competitive in spurts, with Terrence Brown averaging 21.4 points per game and Don McHenry coming off a 23-point performance. While Kansas holds clear advantages in efficiency, rebounding, and depth, history offers a small note of caution — Utah did pull off a 74-67 upset at Allen Fieldhouse in 2025, though both rosters look very different now. Expect Kansas to control tempo and build a comfortable lead, but with a 19.5-point spread, Utah has a realistic path to covering if it can knock down perimeter shots and benefit from any late game easing by the Jayhawks.

Utah vs Kansas Prediction: Utah +19.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +18

The Alabama Crimson Tide and the Auburn Tigers will face off on Saturday for an SEC matchup. The basketball version of the Iron Bowl should be one of the best games of the day and these two rivals will give it their all to come out with a win. The Crimson Tide have been receiving hate from the college basketball world for playing Charles Bediako, but Alabama is just 2-2 with him on the active roster. They are a good team, but I do not see them playing well enough to cover the short spread inside Neville Arena.

Auburn is 14-8 under new head coach Steven Pearl and I expect them to cover the 2.5-point spread on Saturday. They have lost just one game on their home floor this season and the crowd should be louder than ever. The Tigers are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country and that should be the difference in this game. According to KenPom, Auburn is ranked #14 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage while Alabama’s defense is ranked just #287. Auburn grabs 37.7 percent of their misses this season and should have plenty of second chance points in this one. Take Auburn to cover -2.5*

*Auburn -2.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at -4*

The Oklahoma State Cowboys (16-6, 4-5 Big 12) travel to Tucson on Saturday to face the No. 1 Arizona Wildcats (22-0, 9-0 Big 12) at McKale Center in a matchup that heavily favors the home team. Arizona enters undefeated at 22-0, the best start in program history, and sits atop both the AP and Coaches Polls, tied for the longest No. 1 streak in school history. The Wildcats have won all 22 games by an average of 21.0 points and rank No. 1 in the NCAA NET Rankings, including a perfect record against Quad 1 opponents. Arizona boasts elite balance and efficiency, ranking among national leaders in scoring offense (89.5 PPG), rebounding margin (+13.0), field goal percentage (.516), and fastbreak points (17.9), while holding opponents to 68.5 PPG on 39.4% shooting. Offensively, Arizona is loaded with contributors, including Brayden Burries (15.3 PPG), Koa Peat (14.8 PPG), Jaden Bradley (13.9 PPG, 4.5 APG), and 7-foot-2 Motiejus Krivas (11.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG).

Oklahoma State has been strong on the offensive end, averaging 86.5 points per game this season and coming off recent conference wins over Utah and BYU, including a 30-point performance from Anthony Roy in the BYU victory. The Cowboys prefer an up tempo style and are at their best when games turn into shootouts, but defensively they allow approximately 80.4 points per game, a concern against Arizona’s explosive attack. Oklahoma State has never beaten Arizona and will be making its first ever trip to McKale Center, where Arizona is 72-6 under head coach Tommy Lloyd, one of the nation’s most dominant home court marks. Given Arizona’s depth, pace, rebounding edge, and ability to overwhelm opponents early, the Wildcats are positioned to control this matchup from the opening tip. With the spread set at -20.5, Arizona’s consistent blowout profile and Oklahoma State’s defensive limitations point toward a convincing home win.

Oklahoma State vs Arizona prediction: Arizona -20.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -22.

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The best game of Saturday’s college hoops slate takes place on Tobacco Road in the ACC, as we’ll see the most storied rivalry in the sport take center stage for the first time this season. Duke and North Carolina is a game that consistently delivers, and there’s no reason to expect any different on Saturday. The market has been extremely high on Duke throughout conference play, and the Blue Devils have consistently rewarded bettors in the favorite role. However, Jon Scheyer’s team has had a relatively easy schedule to this point in league play, and this will be a step-up in class compared to the likes of Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Boston College, Stanford, California and a banged-up Louisville team at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Given the season-long numbers for both teams and the home-court boost for North Carolina, I have this one projected closer to Duke as a 3-point favorite, so that creates a bit of value on a Tar Heels team that is playing its best basketball of the season over the last couple of weeks.

After some inconsistent play earlier in the season, North Carolina appears to have settled into its backcourt rotations and Hubert Davis has found some recent avenues for success on defense. The results in recent games have been noticeable compared to earlier in ACC play, when the Tar Heels would consistently get flambéed at the point of attack. The matchup that will command all of the attention in this game is Caleb Wilson vs Cam Boozer in what should be a showdown between 2 of the top 4 picks in this summer’s NBA Draft. Boozer leads a Duke team that is a very well-rounded unit, but the Blue Devils are a bit weaker on offense compared to what their perception indicates — especially from beyond the arc (186th in 3-point percentage per Barttorvik). I have no questions about the Blue Devils defense, but this is a tough matchup for Scheyer’s big men against the North Carolina bigs, especially if Wilson and Henri Veesaar are able to step out and knock down open threes, which should force the Duke bigs out onto the perimeter and clear up driving lanes for the Tar Heel guards. Lastly, it’s worth repeating that North Carolina has showed up in some big spots this season, most notably in wins over Kansas, Kentucky and Virginia. I think the Heels have a real shot on the money line in this one, so I’ll gladly take the points at nearly 2 full possessions.

Duke vs North Carolina prediction: North Carolina +5.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +5

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College basketball fans will be treated to a banger of a matchup between 2 of the top-4 teams in the Big Ten when the Illinois Fighting Illini head to East Lansing to play the Michigan State Spartans on Saturday night for the first and only time during the regular season. Illinois comes into this contest on the nation’s 6th-longest win streak (12 games), while Sparty has lost 2 straight to Michigan and Minnesota. Despite the difference in recent form, Michigan State is currently listed as a short favorite at home, and it makes sense considering Sparty’s only home losses have come to Duke and Michigan. That being said, Illinois has a couple strong road wins over Purdue and Nebraska, proving they can beat the Big Ten’s top teams no matter the venue. 

Illinois has the most efficient offense in the country, but Michigan State is no slouch defensively. Sparty is 4th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (KenPom), as well as 1st in the Big Ten, holding opponents below a 47% effective field goal percentage and surrendering the lowest offensive rebounding rate in the country. The defensive rebounding prowess of the Spartans is huge in this matchup, as Illinois is the best offensive rebounding team in the Big Ten. The same could be said on the other end of the floor, where the Illini are top-20 in offensive rebounding rate allowed and 3rd in the conference.

Given the fact that Michigan State is at home and seems to match up well against Illinois’ offense, in addition to the ability of both teams to limit second-chance opportunities, I like this game to stay under the total. Both defenses have been excellent at negating opportunities at the rim and in transition, and neither team sends their opponents to the free throw line excessively. Furthermore, there figures to be a below-average pace to this game, as Illinois is 266th in adjusted tempo and 319th in average possession length, while Michigan State is 264th and 199th in those metrics, respectively. 

Illinois vs Michigan State prediction: Under 143.5 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to 142. 

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Not only one of the games of the day, but what figures to be one of the games of the season will be played at the Marriott Center on Saturday night between Houston and BYU. The battle of the Cougars is must-see TV, as BYU comes into this contest desperate, having lost 4 of their last 5 after starting the season 16-1. Meanwhile, Houston has lost just twice this season, most recently on January 24th at Texas Tech, and has rattled off 3 wins in a row since that recent loss. 

Despite how good Houston is defensively, their games have been higher-scoring this year than in years past. The reason for that is twofold. First, the Cougars have a top-10 offense nationally in terms of adjusted efficiency – one that tops the Big 12 in that metric. Second, they are playing with slightly more pace than they usually do under Kelvin Sampson, due in large part to how good Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp are with the ball in their hands. Also supplementing Houtson’s offense is a top-20 offensive rebounding rate and the 3rd-lowest turnover rate in the country. On the other end, they force turnovers at a top-5 rate, which leads to easy transition opportunities. However, they foul a lot – yielding the highest free throw rate in the conference – and give up a good bit of offensive rebounds, which provides opponents with some easy looks at the rim.

Houston’s kryptonite is teams that can shoot from distance. Their hyper-aggressive defense often leaves shooters open on the perimeter, as shown by their 294th-ranked three-point rate allowed. BYU isn’t the most consistent shooting team, but the Cougars are buoyed by Richie Saunders in that department – who connects on 40% of his three-point attempts. Rob Wright is just over 40% in that regard, albeit with less volume, while AJ Dybantsa can heat up from range too – as shown by his 5-for-8 performance against Oklahoma State on Wednesday. BYU wants to push the pace, sitting 1st in average possession length and 2nd in adjusted tempo in conference play, which should provide enough possessions for a higher-scoring game. Not to mention, like Houston, BYU is a bit over-aggressive defensively and sends Big 12 opponents to the line nearly as frequently as Houston does. 

Given the expected above-average pace, anticipated abundance of fouls and potential for a three-point barrage, I like this game to be higher-scoring than oddsmakers indicate. Take the over. 

Houston vs BYU prediction: Over 148.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 150.5.

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As we wind down the betting day, we head to the west coast for a key conference matchup between the San Francisco Dons and the St. Mary’s Gaels. St. Mary’s sits at 9-2 in the conference and in a heated race with Santa Clara and Gonzaga. San Francisco sits in 4^th place, but at 6-6, they aren’t really in the race at this point. There is quite a bit of gap between the top 3 teams in this conference and everyone else, and that has me leaning toward the Gaels in this spot. These two teams played just a few weeks ago, and St. Mary’s took that game by a score of 82-68 at SF. Lines are sharp this time of year, and this line feels pretty much on target, but I look for the Gaels to produce a similar result in the second meeting. Give me St. Mary’s -11.5.

In the first matchup, nearly everything went the way the metrics would expect. St. Mary’s dominated the boards (36-24), and the Gaels shot a lot more free throws (25 to 13). Both things are totally expected based on season-long metrics, and I would expect similar discrepancies against on Saturday. In the first matchup, the Dons shot a lot more 3s (26 to 15), but St. Mary’s was more efficient in making theirs, hitting 8 of 15. Again, those trends would be expected based on the season-long metrics. While the Gaels might regress a bit on that shooting percentage, everything else could—indeed should—repeat itself, and that would give us a similar result. I’ll risk St. Mary’s on the spread, especially playing at home.

San Francisco vs St. Mary’s Prediction: St. Mary’s -11.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.