College Football Picks

Tuesday night will feature the Troy Trojans taking on the Jacksonville State Gamecocks as these two teams compete in the IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl. Troy finished their season with a record of 8-5, and they ended on the top of the Sun Belt West with a conference record of 6-2. They earned the right to play in the Sun Belt Conference Championship, but they fell to eventual College Football-bound James Madison 31-14. Quarterback Goose Crowder finished the season as the Trojans’ starting quarterback, throwing for 1314 yards and 11 touchdowns in 7 games played. Their top rusher this season was Tae Meadows who finished the season with 695 yards and 6 touchdowns. Jacksonville State finished their season with a record of 8-5. And they had a conference record of 7-1 in Conference USA. The Gamecocks played Kennesaw State in the conference championship, but they came up short 19-15. Quarterback Caden Creel finished the season as the Gamecocks top passer with 1341 yards and 8 touchdowns. Jacksonville State finished the year with two 1000 yard rushers. Running back Cam Cook finished the season with 1659 yards and 16 touchdowns, while Creel ran for 1085 yards and 7 touchdowns. 

Bowl games are beginning to lose their feeling of importance in recent years in college football with players sitting out and some teams declining the option to compete. But this matchup between in-state rivals Troy and Jacksonville State will not fit that narrative. This game will be played in Montgomery, Alabama, which sits right in the middle of these two campuses. Motivation for in-state bragging rights will be on the line, making this one of the better bowl game matchups. My key matchup for this game is Jacksonville State’s running game versus Troy’s defense. Troy has struggled against the run this season, allowing 192 rushing yards per game. That number has them ranked 115th in the nation in that category. Against James Madison, Troy allowed their opponent to run for 318 yards on 42 attempts. That came out to 7.6 yards per attempt. With both their running back and quarterback rushing for over 1000 yards this season, Jacksonville State thrives running the football. If Troy cannot stop the run again this Tuesday, this could be a game we see Jacksonville State win as the underdog. 

Jacksonville State +2.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at the moneyline.

Bowl games are decided less by talent and more by intent, and this matchup raises real questions about South Florida’s mindset. The Bulls entered November with legitimate College Football Playoff buzz, but that  momentum has since vanished quickly. Now, after head coach Alex Golesh departed for Auburn, USF finds itself in an early bowl game against a team that most would expect them to overpower just weeks ago. That’s the trap.

Old Dominion, however, views this game through a completely different lens. For the Monarchs, this isn’t a consolation prize — it’s an opportunity. A win here would mark one of the most significant achievements in program history, potentially delivering their second 10-win season since transitioning to Division I and their first in nearly a decade. Beating a team that once flirted with the top ten would validate the entire season. South Florida’s profile makes them dangerous from a betting perspective. They’ve been one of the most profitable teams in the country, and that success inflates perception. The market still treats them as a trustworthy favorite, but circumstances matter. Coaching turnover, postseason disappointment, and unclear motivation are all red flags in bowl settings. Said dynamic often decides these games. With urgency on one sideline and uncertainty on the other, we’ll back the team playing for meaning. ODU outright.

Old Dominion vs South Florida prediction: Old Dominion +140 (Money Line) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

This is Delaware’s first-ever bowl appearance as an FBS program, and instinctively, the market wants to fade the Blue Hens. Louisiana-Lafayette is the familiar name here — a team that seems to show up in bowl season every year — while Delaware is stepping into uncharted territory. That perception alone is what creates the value with Delaware. Strip away the helmets and history, and this game profiles as far closer to a coin flip than the price suggests. If Louisiana weren’t viewed as a bowl-season staple and Delaware weren’t labeled the newcomer, it’s hard to argue the Blue Hens would be catching plus money here. In fact, the opening line told a much truer story. The Cajuns opened laying less than a field goal, which is the market’s way of saying Delaware is very much live.

This isn’t a talent mismatch. Delaware has already proven it belongs at this level, competing immediately in its first FBS season and earning a bowl berth on merit, not charity. Motivation also leans heavily toward the Hens. This is a historic opportunity — a chance to punctuate their debut season with a statement win. When a game is effectively 50/50, the correct play is simple: take the plus price. And we have to like that position – Delaware isn’t just happy to be here. They’re positioned to finish the job. Hens outright.

UL Lafayette vs Delaware prediction: Delaware +130 (Money Line) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

This bowl matchup is another being framed as a “been here before vs. first-timer” narrative, and that’s exactly why Missouri State is being undervalued. Arkansas State isn’t some seasoned bowl power — they’re simply the team the market feels more comfortable backing. Comfort does not equal value. Missouri State enters at 7–5 and profiles as a quietly capable team that lives in competitive margins. Outside of blowout losses to USC and SMU — games that tell us nothing — the Bears were in every meaningful contest they played. They lost to Conference USA champion Kennesaw State by a touchdown, fell to Western Kentucky by five, and won four games by a single possession finding ways to win. This team is battle-tested.

Arkansas State lives in the same chaos, but with less margin for error. The Red Wolves also lost four one-score games, but three of their wins came by a single point. Flip one bounce in any of those, and they’re watching this bowl from home. Two of these results were outright upsets in the double-digit underdog range. Basically, the Wolves were off the radar and eked out stunning upsets that could have easily gone the other way. So why is Arkansas State favored? Because they are the mainstay FBS side and Missouri State is the new kid on teh block. But that alone doesn’t justify it. We are not entirely sold that the Red Wolves should even be favored. But hey, it gets us as the Bears at even money. Missouri State belongs here and they’ll prove it. State for the W.

Missouri State vs Arkansas State prediction: Missouri State +100 (Money Line) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

Bowl season will continue on Friday when the Conference USA champions in the Kennesaw State Owls meet the MAC champions in the Western Michigan Broncos at the Myrtle Beach Bowl at 11:00 am ET on ESPN. Kennesaw State finished the year 10-3 including its conference title, winning 3 straight and 10 of 11 coming into this game. Meanwhile, Western Michigan has won 5 straight and 9 of 10 ahead of this matchup in Conway, South Carolina. Both teams are expected to be near full strength as far as injuries and opt-outs go, which is nice to see. 

This game is likely to come down to who runs the ball more efficiently and turns the ball over less, and both of those traits skew more towards Western Michigan than they do Kennesaw in this matchup. Both teams have a top-40 rush rate and are similarly efficient with the ball on the ground, but the Owls are much, much worse defensively on the ground than the Broncos. In fact, Kennesaw State has surrendered at least 191 rush yards in 4 straight games, including Liberty’s 291-yard performance. Surpassing 200 rushing yards is normal for WMU, who just ran for 286 in the MAC title game. 

When it comes to turnovers, the Broncos average fewer than 1 giveaway per game – spearheaded by QB Broc Lowry. He’s no game-breaking passer, but he doesn’t hinder the offense, either. Lowry has thrown just 2 interceptions with an impressive 2 turnover worthy plays, which is all he really needs to do to keep drives alive with this efficient rushing attack. KSU QB Amari Odom puts the ball in harm’s way more often than Lowry, as shown by his 13 turnover-worthy plays – 9 of which came in games away from home. Give me the better rushing attack and offense that’s less likely to make mistakes.

Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan prediction: Western Michigan Broncos -3.5 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to -4.  

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The 2025 College Football Playoff gets underway on Friday night with an SEC rematch between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Oklahoma Sooners from Norman. These teams met during the season when the Sooners notably beat the Tide in Tuscaloosa 23-21 despite being outgained 406-212 and converting just 3 of 13 third downs. Alabama’s 3 turnovers were the story, and Alabama’s blocked 36-yard field goal before halftime came into play, too. 

Alabama has not looked the part of late, ever since the loss to Oklahoma. The Tide took care of their business against FCS Eastern Illinois, but they almost squandered their CFP hopes in Auburn, being outgained by the Tigers 411-280 and converting just 4 of 17 third downs. The Tide followed that near loss up with an embarrassing showing in the SEC Championship against Georgia, a game in which they gained just 209 yards and were dealing with injuries to multiple key players. 

Meanwhile, Oklahoma is surging. Winners of 4 in a row and 5 of 6 since their loss to rival Texas, the Sooners enter this playoff game on home soil in better form, but there are still questions about the upside of this offense. The Sooners are 120th in PPA per play and 126th in success rate outside of garbage time since Week 9, which doesn’t instill much confidence in a game of this magnitude. 

This matchup could go either way, but I’m going to lean with Alabama to exact revenge on the Sooners simply because I can’t trust Oklahoma to do its part offensively. The Tide were already able to move the ball on this defense just a few weeks ago, and even with the venue change, I don’t expect the Tide to turn the ball over 3 times again. For what it’s worth, the Sooners average fewer than 1 takeaway per home game this year. 

Alabama vs Oklahoma prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide -1 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -2.

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This game figures to be anchored by what are a couple of tenacious defenses. Since Week 9, both Alabama and Oklahoma are top-30 in PPA per play, success rate and points per opportunity allowed, and neither offense has been inspiring enough to crack those defensive efficiency numbers. The Sooners are outside the top 120 in both PPA per play and success rate since the end of October, and they’ve scored just 2.72 points per trip across the opposing 40-yard line in that span – good for just 115th. Alabama hasn’t been much better, as the Tide are 88th in PPA per play and 77th in success rate since Week 9 – though they have been a bit more efficient in scoring opportunities. 

Given the similar defensive strengths and offensive shortcomings to end the season, I’m expecting a low-scoring, smashmouth football game in Norman this Friday. When these teams met in Tuscaloosa, only 44 points were scored, but 7 of those points came from an Oklahoma pick-6 and Alabama gifted another 10 points to the Sooners by way of 2 fumbles close to the red zone. I don’t see that happening again here. For what it’s worth, unders are 10-2 in Oklahoma games and 6-1 in its home games, while they are 3-1 in Alabama’s road SEC games. 

Alabama vs. Oklahoma prediction: Under 41 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 40.

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