College Football Picks

Tuesday’s bowl slate takes us to Boca Raton, Florida for the Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl, featuring the Toledo Rockets and the Louisville Cardinals. Toledo finished 4^th in the MAC, but the Rockets closed the regular season on a 4-game winning streak to get themselves to Florida for bowl season. Louisville briefly flirted with the top of the ACC standings before losing its final 3 conference games. They managed to blank in-state rival Kentucky, 41-0, to close on a strong note. Louisville is the more talented team here, so as long as this line stays under a touchdown, I think that is the right play. Give me Louisville -6.5.

In terms of opt-outs and roster changes to be aware of, Louisville is likely to be missing a couple of defenders, and we aren’t sure who will dress for them at running back because of injuries. Quarterback Miller Moss flirted with opting out, but he appears ready to go after all. Louisville is decently stable as far as bowl rosters go. Toledo lost their coach, who took the job at UConn. That hasn’t brought as many transfers and opt-outs as you would expect, but the coaching change alone is significant. The bottom line here is that whenever Toledo has stepped outside the MAC this season (Wash St, Kentucky), they have struggled, and they have especially been unable to run the ball against bigger defenders. Louisville is better (and stronger) than both those opponents. I think the Rockets will struggle to generate offense here. I’ll take the Cardinals, as long as it is under a touchdown.

Toledo vs Louisville prediction: Louisville Cardinals -6.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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At first glance, this total looks inviting for an over. UNLV plays fast, scores in bunches, and invites track meets. Ohio, meanwhile, has enough offensive competence to exploit the Rebels’ porous defense. On the surface, it makes sense why the market expects fireworks. But this matchup sets up far differently once you peel back the layers. Ohio’s path to success is not through scoring — it’s through pace and ball control. The Bobcats defend at a higher level, allowing just 22 points per game, and they are perfectly comfortable shortening the contest. To keep the Rebs in check, the Cats will milk the play clock, lean on long possessions, and prioritize field position. That approach directly limits UNLV’s biggest strength: explosive volume.

UNLV’s offense thrives when it gets repeated cracks. When possessions are reduced, their margin shrinks — and we’ve already seen their defense struggle to get off the field. If Ohio is competitive, it won’t be because they traded scores. It will be because they slowed the game, chewed clock, and forced UNLV to operate with fewer drives. There’s also clear correlation here. Ohio covering — or threatening to win outright — almost demands a lower-scoring environment. A shootout benefits the Rebels, not the Bobcats. Thus, if Ohio covers as we prognosticated, or if they even win here, the over becomes a long climb.

UNLV vs Ohio prediction: Under 65 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Ohio has quietly become an afterthought. Once the Bobcats slipped out of the MAC title picture, the market stopped paying attention. UNLV, meanwhile, continues to receive respect by default after a 10-win season and a Mountain West title game appearance. But reputation and results are not the same thing — and this matchup exposes that gap. UNLV has been flawed all season. The Rebels are explosive offensively, averaging 35 points per game, but they remain one of the weakest defensive units among bowl-caliber teams, surrendering nearly 29 points per contest. Boise State — an offense that has struggled with consistency all year — put up 38 on UNLV just two weeks ago. That wasn’t an outlier. It was the norm. This is a team that has been clipped for 35 or more in five of their last ten games.

Ohio is built differently. The Bobcats play defense, allowing just 22 points per game, and their offense is capable of scoring efficiently without needing chaos or broken coverages. This isn’t an overmatched service academy or an FCS opponent that folded late like UNLV has faced previously. Ohio is structured, disciplined, and capable of playing four quarters. The market has pushed this number upward because of UNLV’s stature, not its reliability. That creates value on the Cats. UNLV is not a team you want to lay points with in a game like this — especially against a defense that won’t hand them easy possessions. Ohio can win this outright. Taking the points is the smart play.

UNLV vs Ohio prediction: Ohio ML (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Christmas Eve will feature one college football bowl game, and it will be the California Bears taking on the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors in the Hawai’i Bowl. This will be the first time since 2019 that Hawai’i will compete in this bowl game. The Rainbow Warriors have a 5-4 record all time when playing in the Hawai’i Bowl. Their record this season was 8-4, and they won 2 of their last four games. Micah Alejado led Hawai’i’s offense this season with 2832 yards passing, 21 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Their defense was led by senior Jackie Johnson III who finished the season with 7.5 sacks. Hawai’i best win this season was a 38-6 win against a San Diego State team that finished their season 9-3. California finished their season 7-5, but they lost three of their last five games. The Bears’ offense is led by freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. He threw for 3117 yards, 17 touchdowns and 9 interceptions this season. Their defense was led by linebacker Cade Uluave who finished the season with 88 tackles. The Bears best wins were at the end of the season when they beat 21st ranked SMU 38-35 and 15th ranked Louisville 29-26. 

At first glance the story of this game seems to be Hawai’i playing in their home state, but the player to watch will be California quarterback and potential 2026 Heisman hopeful Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele returning to his home state in hopes to enjoy a homecoming. The freshman quarterback announced a couple of weeks ago that he plans to stay in Berkeley for next season, so all eyes will be on the future as Sagapolutele tries to cap off his first year with a bowl win. Hawai’i’s quarterback, Micah Alejado, will not only be a tough test for Sagapolutele in this matchup, but also an emotional one. The two quarterbacks were childhood friends in Hawai’i. They grew up playing with and against one another. Alejado will be without his top receiver Jackson Harris in this game due to the transfer portal. Harris finished the season leading Hawai’i in receiving with 963 yards and 12 touchdowns. I believe California has the higher ceiling in this matchup, and I’ll back them in Sagapolutele’s homecoming. 

Cal vs Hawaii prediction: California +1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to PK.

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This is all about identities. Penn State’s identity is defense first. That’s been their DNA throughout the season. The Nittany Lions offense can be methodical, but it is not explosive by nature, especially against a defensive front that can hold up physically. That naturally makes points come at a premium, especially against a front as good as Clemson.

Clemson in many ways mirrors PSU’s profile. While the Tigers have more upside offensively, they are at their best when leaning on defense, field position, and forcing mistakes. Clemson’s defensive line and linebacker play are capable of disrupting Penn State’s run game and stalling drives. This is the type of contest that is going to be settled at the line of scrimmage and a rock fight in every sense of the word. Both teams will be playing chess here, not checkers. Points will be scarce, field position will mean everything, and this is a contest that can easily be settled on the final driven. Given the overall expected tight margins in play, nothing about this says Over. This is a game that may not even break the 35-point threshold. Take the Under.

Penn State Nittany Lions vs Clemson Tigers prediction: Under 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

The Penn State Nittany Lions; The Clemson Tigers; at Yankee Stadium? Seems like something out of a movie. No, it’s just the Pinstripe Bowl. In the beginning of the regular season, if you told us these two would be squaring off, we would have thought it would have been the College Football Playoff. Instead, two of the most storied programs in college football meet in the Bronx before New Year’s Day. The question going in is which team can handle that better. The signs point to the Tigers.

We can point out the number that this opened at with Clemson spotting a field goal plus the hook to PSU. That type of price typically lends to a favorite number because it makes the field goal plus the half point attractive to take with the underdog. So far the market has bitten down and the line has moved to a field goal accordingly. But that’s not the only reason why we like the Tigers here. Let’s talk about coaching. Terry Smith or Dabo Swinney. Who are you taking? Dabo, of course. Swinney will find a way to craft a narrative to get his team fired up for this opportunity even if their season went off the rails. Penn State may have a lot more local support in New York but none of that actually matters against a team like Clemson who is built for stages even like this one. Tigers roll.

Penn State Nittany Lions vs Clemson Tigers prediction: Clemson -3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

If Georgia Tech is going to have success in this bowl, it’s going to come through offense—and that reality makes the over the most logical companion play in this matchup. The Yellow Jackets are not built to grind out low-possession slugfests against capable opponents. Look at what happened when they were forced to do so against the Dawgs: they floundered. When Georgia Tech wins or stays competitive, it’s because they are able to score points. If Georgia Tech covers or wins, it almost certainly means they’re scoring into the 30’s. The Ramblin’ Wreck is undefeated when it crosses that threshold.

BYU will need to score to succeed here too. In their two losses this season against Texas Tech, the Cougars defense bled points while the Cougars had no fastball of their own to keep the Red Raiders honest. If they are going to compete, they too will have to score. That also correlates to the over. But here is the thing, the Jackets have given up over 600 yards of offense to the likes of NC State and surrendered 42 to Pittsburgh in their loss to the Panthers. Thus, BYU can expect to find the end zone a few times without fail too. In turn, both teams can easily find themselves in a track meet. For those that like the Cougars, if they are going to compete, they will have to sprint rather than slow things down. Everything about this game in the mechanics and tactics point towards it being a contest that can easily cross the 60-point mark which makes the over a solid option.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs BYU Cougars prediction: Over 56 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

Neither Georgia Tech nor BYU expected to be here in late October, and that disconnect between expectation and reality is central to evaluating this matchup. Bowl games are often decided less by raw talent and more by emotional readiness, and the two teams arrive here from very different psychological paths. Georgia Tech’s season-ending disappointment is no longer fresh. Their postseason hopes ended in late November with a decisive loss to Pittsburgh, followed by a scrappy defeat in Atlanta against arch nemesis Georgia. Those results were definitive, but they also gave the Yellow Jackets something valuable: time. Time to process, reset, and reframe this bowl game as an opportunity rather than a consolation prize. With weeks to prepare and no lingering “what ifs,” Georgia Tech can approach this matchup with a clear, focused mindset.

BYU’s letdown, on the other hand, is far more recent and far more severe. The Cougars entered championship weekend with a direct path to the College Football Playoff, only to suffer a stunning 34–7 blowout loss to Texas Tech. That wasn’t just a loss—it was a public unraveling in the most critical moment of the season. Recovering emotionally from that kind of collapse is difficult, especially when the reward is a mid-tier bowl instead of the playoff stage they had within reach. We don’t know how the Cougars will approach this game. They may have already moved onto 2026. With motivation tilting toward the Yellow Jackets, Georgia Tech is positioned not just to compete and cover the number, but to win outright. That’s how we’ll play it.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs BYU Cougars prediction: Georgia Tech +160 (Money Line) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

At first glance, this number feels justified. Louisiana Tech has the better record, has been far kinder to bettors, and enters this matchup riding a bit of momentum. Coastal Carolina, meanwhile, looks like a team in free fall—three straight losses, the last two coming by blowout margins where the Chanticleers surrendered more than 50 points in each. On paper, it’s easy to understand why the Bulldogs are laying this kind of tag. But dig a layer deeper, and the confidence behind Louisiana Tech quickly erodes. The Bulldogs are being asked to do something they have repeatedly failed to do this season: handle the role of favorite. This is a team that has lost three of its last four games outright when laying points, beginning with a flat performance against Kennesaw State that exposed their limitations. Louisiana Tech’s recent success has come almost exclusively as an underdog, where expectations are lower and pressure is minimal. Asking them to suddenly flip that script and win by margin is a dangerous proposition.

Yes, the Bulldogs have won two straight games, and yes, they did so as slight underdogs. But that’s exactly the issue—those results have inflated their market perception without changing the underlying profile of the team. Louisiana Tech remains volatile, inconsistent, and unreliable when forced to dictate play. That’s the definition of a false favorite. Coastal Carolina, on the other hand, enters this game with nothing to lose. Their recent results have completely removed them from the betting radar, which is precisely why the number has ballooned to this range. This game doesn’t require Coastal to be the better team—only competitive. With Louisiana Tech’s history of failing to capitalize as the chalk, nine points is simply too much to give in a matchup filled with volatility and uncertainty.

Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana Tech prediction: Coastal Carolina +9 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

Bowl games often come down to one simple question: who actually wants to be there? And in this matchup, that question hangs squarely over Tennessee. The Volunteers entered the season with playoff aspirations after last year’s run, but those hopes were extinguished in November with a damaging home loss to Oklahoma. Since then, Tennessee’s resume has been padded with wins over New Mexico State and a Florida team that is in complete turmoil. The season ended on a sour note as well, with the Vols losing at home to Vanderbilt — a game where effort and urgency clearly favored the underdog. A spot that Vandy made the most of while Tennessee was left with even more question marks.

Illinois, meanwhile, views this game very differently. Despite sitting inside the Top Ten in the early going of the regular season, the Illini were never built for a Big Ten title run this season. That much was proven when one draws Indiana, Ohio State, and a road trip to Washington on the schedule and looked non-competitve in none of those contests. Still, Illinois has shown that they can compete physically and punch above their weight in the right spot. A bowl matchup against a brand-name SEC opponent that may already be thinking about 2026 is exactly the kind of opportunity for that to happen. Illinois plays a style of football that can neutralize Tennessee’s biggest strength – their offense. By controlling the line of scrimmage, shortening the game, and keeping possessions limited, the Illini can keep the Vols’ explosive offense on the sideline. That is also key against a Tennessee defense allowing nearly 29 points per game. The Illini may not only be able to mitigate the Volunteers’ offense but can also build a lead to cut their defensive line loose which loves to get into the backfield and disrupt things. With Illinois priced inside a field goal as an underdog, the number suggests this game is a tenable assignment for Illinois. If motivation matters — and in bowl season it always does — the Illini hold those cards too. Illinois outright.

Tennessee vs Illinois prediction: Illinois +115 (Money Line) available at time of publishing. Playable at number.

Tennessee’s offensive reputation naturally pushes the total upward, but this matchup does not favor a shootout if Illinois is competitive — and especially if Illinois wins outright. The Illini’s path to victory is clear: slow the game down, control possession, and keep Tennessee’s offense on the sideline. Illinois is comfortable grinding out long drives, shortening quarters, and turning games into physical contests. That approach directly suppresses total possessions, which is poison for an over at this number.

Tennessee’s defense also plays a role here. While they allow points, that doesn’t automatically translate to a high total. Illinois is more likely to finish drives methodically than strike quickly, which eats clock even when points are scored. Once again, this drains time. There is also strong correlation here. If Illinois is in position to win, they are controlling tempo. If they are controlling tempo, the game will lean towards the under. A high-scoring shootout favors Tennessee and works against the Illini’s strengths. This total assumes pace and fireworks but that only happens if the Volunteers win. We’re backing the Illini. Thus, the under fits the script.

Tennessee vs Illinois prediction: Under 61.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.