College Football Picks

The Rice Owls hit the road for Jerry Richardson Stadium in the Queen City to take on the Charlotte 49ers in an American Conference matchup. The Owls opened the season with a 14-12 win on the road against Louisiana as a 10-point underdog. While they’re 0-2 against the spread in the past 2 games, Rice lost a tough 35-9 battle against crosstown rival Houston before bouncing back with a 38-17 win over Prairie View A&M at home. Regardless of their ATS record, the Owls are playing with a lot of confidence, and they have a respectable defense, unlike the 49ers right now.

The 49ers scored a 42-35 win over Monmonth of the FCS. While a victory is nice, Charlotte allowed an FCS quarterback to throw for 410 yards. Monmouth totaled 458 yards and 28 first downs against Charlotte, too, having their way in the stadium of the 49ers. Charlotte was also sloppy, turning it over three times, while forcing zero turnovers. If the 49ers play like that against the Owls, they’re going to get their doors blown off. Charlotte is 0-2 straight up and ATS in 2 games against FBS opponents, averaging just 7 points per game, while allowing 27 points on the other side. Expect more of the same on Thursday.

Rice vs Charlotte prediction: Rice -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.5.

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We have Big Ten Friday football as the Iowa Hawkeyes head to the state of New Jersey to play the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. The conference isn’t going to throw its top tier teams out there on Fridays, but Iowa and Rutgers are both two middle-of-the-pack teams that should be on track for bowl games, and a game like this sometimes makes a huge difference in the final standings. I think this game is a suspicious spot where Vegas is trying to trap us, knowing that -2.5 dares us to take the favorite by a field goal, and I think they expect the majority of the public bettors to back Iowa on name recognition alone. (And probably the under also, because, well, it’s Iowa.) But I think the Scarlet Knights are a stronger team right now, and I am going to take the points with Rutgers.

Rutgers has a more talented roster than you would expect, and maybe the best that Greg Shiano has had there. The offensive line is veteran and good, and they have an experienced QB in Athan Kaliakmanis who can lead this team. The defense was a liability last year, as Rutgers lost multiple games in which they scored 30+ points, but they loaded up in the offseason to try to shore up that defense. Friday will be the first test to see where they really are. As for Iowa, they were supposed to have solved their perpetual and eternal offensive woes when they acquired South Dakota State transfer Mark Gronowski. He has been fine against the cupcakes, but he was dreadful against Iowa State, and that will probably push Iowa right back to being a run-and-punt offense. I think Iowa is still classic Iowa, but Rutgers might just have the firepower to pull off the upset, especially at home. I’ll take Rutgers +2.5.

Iowa vs Rutgers prediction: Rutgers +2.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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One of the early kickoffs in the B1G features the Maryland Terrapins vs the Wisconsin Badgers. In years past, this would be an obvious blow-out spot for the Badgers, but I don’t think that is true anymore. The Badgers have fallen way down in the conference pecking order, and they didn’t look like they belonged on the same field as Alabama last week. Sure, that was at Alabama, but Wisconsin was never at any moment in that game or even remotely competitive. They had to start a backup QB, so they were probably doomed from the start, but they may well go into the Maryland game in the same situation. That is one of several reasons that has me looking at the Terrapins here. I’ll take Maryland plus the points.

Billy Edwards Jr would love to start against his former team (he just transferred from Maryland to Wisconsin), but he is splitting reps with backup Danny O’Neil early in the week. Whichever guy starts, this is once again a run-first Wisconsin attack. Maryland, of course, wants to be a fast-paced, high-volume offense, even if they have struggled to find the personnel to run it effectively. They are working with a freshman QB in Malik Washington, but he has a high ceiling. He has plenty of receivers to work with, so if Wisconsin struggles to score or has to kick FGs instead of finding the end zone, Maryland could very well hang around here. The Terps’ primary liability is, of course, their defense, so that will probably be the story of the game. Still, I won’t be surprised if the Terps hang around in this one, even in a tough road environment.

Maryland vs Wisconsin Prediction: Maryland +10 available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Any breathing room this season for the Clemson Tigers is gone. After an 0-1 start in the ACC and 1-2 start overall, Clemson will head back home to Memorial Stadium to take on the 2-1 Syracuse Orange. Clemson is coming off a 24-21 loss to Georgia Tech last week. Tech’s coach told his team they aren’t underdogs, and they proved it against the formerly ranked Tigers. Quarterback Cade Klubnik was underwhelming again, throwing for 207 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Klubnik did manage to lead his team 75 yards and tie the game with 3 minutes left, but the Tigers still lost on a last second, 55-yard field goal. Syracuse won their second game of the season last weekend, defeating Colgate 66-24. Junior quarterback Steve Angeli threw for 382 passing yards and 5 touchdowns. He also ran one in himself. This week’s game will be Syracuse’s first big test since week 1 when they lost 45-26 to Tennessee.

The main question is how will Clemson respond this week? Will we finally see this Tiger’s team live up to the standard they built all offseason? After three lackluster performances to start the season, it is hard to be excited for Clemson football. But even with the concerns, Clemson will still be the more talented team on the field Saturday, and head coach Dabo Swinney will be coming into Death Valley with a gameplan to control this game.  All concerns have been put on the shoulders of Klubnik and the offense, but the Tiger’s defense has also underperformed to start this season. Swinney mentioned that they have been “soft” at cornerback this season and challenges his defense to improve. This includes cornerback Avieon Terrell, who is a potential top-15 pick in next year’s NFL draft. We may still see a level of sloppiness on offense, so I believe it will be Clemson’s defense that will step up big against the Orange on their home field, even against a decent Syracuse offense. Look out for defensive end TJ Parker to make Angeli’s day difficult all Saturday afternoon.

Under 55.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

This is simply a play of numbers, we are not entirely sure that the Rebels should be laying points on the road to anyone. UNLV after all required theatrics to escape Idaho State in Week Zero to get away with a win, despite being a 30.5-point favorite. However, because the Rebels beat up on Sam Houston State and a UCLA team that is a shell of its former self, all is forgotten. This is an entirely different kettle of fish.

The Redhawks haven’t been in the market’s crosshairs since it was vying for the MAC title in December until Ohio ran buckshot on them and smashed them 34-3. The Hawks would win the Arizona Bowl with a 43-17 thumping of Colorado State but no one remembers that. Since then, Miami started off 0-2 but let us preface that they traveled to Wisconsin and Rutgers, two Big Ten sides to start off their campaign. UNLV is undefeated but again they were feasting on cupcakes and catching the Bruins at the perfect time. This could be the best team that the Rebels actually will face thus far this season and they are doing it on in hostile confines. Meanwhile the Redhawks are taking a step down against a Group of Five colleague. The fact that the Rebels aren’t even trusted to spot a field goal to the Redhawks in Oxford tell us that Miami is a serious threat here. Forget any points, take the Hawks outright.

UNLV vs. Miami Ohio prediction: Miami Ohio +115 (Money Line) available at time of publishing.

The Oregon State Beavers are off to an 0-3 start, limping into a rivalry matchup against the college football giants that be the Oregon Ducks. The rivalry is officially dubbed “The Civil War,” though I don’t expect this to be much of a battle, let alone a war. The Beavers have struggled with turnovers offensively and the defense is giving up 38.3 points per game. While historically crazy things have happened in rivalry matchups, the underlying numbers suggest Oregon can certainly run away with this one.

Oregon State ranks outside of the top 100 in a variety of statistical categories: EPA margin, defensive success rate, net field position. Furthermore, the Beavers rank 132nd in EPA/rush on both offense and defense, along with the 115th best mark in EPA/dropback. Oregon, on the other hand, ranks top-25 in each of the aforementioned categories. The gap of talent is clear, and the Ducks’ defense should give Oregon State QB Maalik Murphy fits, ranking 4th in defensive havoc. I struggle to see any route for Oregon State to keep up with the Ducks; I’ll take Oregon to cover at home.

Oregon State vs Oregon prediction: Oregon -35 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

Set at 1.5 games, the Kent State Golden Flashes had the lowest win total among FBS schools entering the 2025 season. While they are already halfway to the over, I don’t expect much “flashes” from the Flashes’ offense in this matchup. Kent State leans on the run game and has a dual-threat QB under center not afraid to use his legs. I expect Kent State to continue leaning on the ground game in this one despite ranking 129th in EPA/rush offensively. However you spin it, Kent State will have difficulty moving the ball against this Semilones’ defense.

While the spread would suggest this will be a Florida State blowout, I am expecting a relatively low-scoring blow out based on the stylistic matchup. Florida State has run the ball 100 times in 2 games and holds a 76.5 rush play percentage (top-5 in FBS). Kent State is surrendering over 175 rushing yards per game, and the Seminoles have no reason to get flashy or take any risks through the air in a game they should comfortably win without worry. Furthermore, Florida State ranks 97th and Kent State ranks 103rd in players per second. This calls for a slow-paced, run-first matchup and I’ll take the under.

Kent State vs Florida State prediction: Under 56.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

Head coach Bill Belichick will get his second opportunity to have his new team go up against a school from the Big 12 this Saturday when the North Carolina Tar Heels take on the UCF Knights. North Carolina lost in the first week of the season 48-14 on their home field to the TCU Horned Frogs. Since then, the Tar Heels are 2-0 with wins over Charlotte and Richmond. North Carolina’s defense has looked like it has settled into place, only allowing 9 total points between those two games. North Carolina will be the first big school UCF has played this season. The Knights beat Jacksonville State 17-10 and North Carolina A&T 68-7 to open their season. UCF will be excited to see how they stack up against the competition, especially after they finished last season 4-8.

It felt like a universal college football fan experience, where in week zero we all saw North Carolina lay an egg on national television against TCU, and we wrote off the Tar Heels. Since that game, Belichick’s squad has gotten some tune up games against lower level talent to get back at a better level. The main concern coming out of the TCU game was the missed tackling from North Carolina’s defense. They missed 19 tackles, allowing TCU to run all over them. While their last two opponents have been lower in talent, it is still promising to see North Carolina only miss two tackles across those two games. UCF has concerns of their own going into this game. After an offseason of many roster changes, running back Myles Montgomery was supposed to be their go to playmaker on offense. Due to inconsistencies on the offensive line, Montgomery has only rushed for 114 yards on 29 attempts and zero touchdowns this season against two opponents outside the Power Four. If North Carolina’s defense can fill the running holes Saturday and show their tackling has improved, I think this game comes down to a toss up.

North Carolina +7 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Tulane Green Wave come crashing into Oxford to play the Ole Miss Rebels in a battle of two undefeated teams on Saturday. The Green Wave have already beaten two power conference opponents in this young season, dismantling Northwestern in Week 1, 23-3, before outlasting Duke last week despite being outgained, surrendering 5.8 yards per rush attempt, and racking up 100 penalty yards. While Jake Retzlaff was great for the Green Wave in the win over the Blue Devils, if those trends continue, the trip to the Grove may not be very friendly to Tulane.

As for Ole Miss, quarterback Austin Simmons is expected to return on Saturday, but the Rebels are in quite an interesting spot here. They’ve already played two conference opponents in Kentucky and Arkansas, beating both by just one score, and now they have this odd non-conference game against a regional “little brother” ahead of a massive showdown with LSU next weekend. It’s definitely a tricky situation, but I have a feeling Lane Kiffin will have his team ready to fight – not looking ahead to LSU. Kiffin knows just how tough Jon Sumrall and the Green Wave are considering his Rebels played against Sumrall’s Troy squad in 2022 and at Tulane in 2023.

This line opened around 13 points and was bet down. I get it; Tulane has beaten two Power Four teams, and quarterback Retzlaff has looked invincible at times – especially as a runner. However, I can’t get over how poorly the Green Wave played defensively since their impressive win over Northwestern. At South Alabama, they allowed over 250 yards of total offense on four second-half drives – three of which resulted in points. The Green Wave followed that up with a poor defensive showing last week against Duke, allowing more than 450 yards. This Ole Miss offense will be, by far, the most talented offense Tulane has seen to this point, and I expect the Rebels to name their score no matter who is playing under center on Saturday.

Don’t get me wrong, Ole Miss’ defense hasn’t been good, but there is a fairly wide talent disparity between these two rosters, and Tulane hasn’t shown much consistency offensively outside of what Retzlaff has been able to do as a runner. Against AAC competition, I expect Ole Miss’ front seven to look better than it did last week, and for the Rebels skill players to be too much to handle for the Tulane defense. Retzlaff won’t be able to do it alone in this one. ‘Rebs roll at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, improving to 14-5-1 ATS as a non-conference favorite under Kiffin.

Tulane vs Ole Miss prediction: Ole Miss Rebels -10.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -13.

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This one is all about situational betting. Let’s start with the Owls. Last week, Temple entered into what was described by some as “the mother of all look-ahead spots” when Oklahoma traveled to Philadelphia off a big win against Michigan before welcoming undefeated Auburn to Norman, this Saturday. Temple was priced pretty much as they are here and got rolled by the Sooners 42-3. Now, Temple is in yet another let-down spot priced at the same number as they were last week. Hint hint.

Georgia Tech comes in ranked for the first time this season, undefeated, and unbeaten against the spread. The profile of a team living up to the acclaim and hype that surrounded them in the pre-season. The Yellow Jackets took a huge step forward after knocking off Clemson last week in Atlanta, by way of a walk-off field goal that sent the crowd onto the field and the goalposts down to the ground. A win of that nature, against an opponent of Clemson’s calibre sets up the Jackets to come in flat this week against a side that just got smoked in a similar spot, a week ago. We keep going back to the number, it’s as if the market is daring you to fade Temple again, but we are not having it. The Owls keep this within range.

Temple vs. Georgia Tech prediction: Temple +23.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 23.

The Missouri Tigers will open SEC play with a home game against the South Carolina Gamecocks. Missouri is 3-0 to start the season, with wins against Central Arkansas, Kansas, and Louisiana. Each win was by double digits. Quarterback Brady Cook’s time came to an end at Missouri and the Tigers’ have moved to senior Beau Pribula. Pribula has been excellent to start his 2025 season, throwing for 791 yards and 7 touchdowns. South Carolina is coming off a difficult to swallow loss last week. They lost on their home field 31-7 to Vanderbilt. Quarterback standout LaNorris Sellers went down early with a head injury in this game. His status remains in question heading into this weekend.

The biggest storyline heading into this game is the status of Sellers, and if he will be ready to go by Saturday. Last year’s freshman of the year is a key part to this team’s success and they will need him healthy, especially as South Carolina enters a stretch in their schedule where they play a ranked opponent in six of their next seven contests. I think this line has already adjusted for Sellers potentially sitting out. Even if the sophomore doesn’t suit up, I still think South Carolina can cover this total. Missouri’s offense has performed well above offseason predictions. Through three games, this group has shown potential to be one of head coach Eliah Drinkwitz best units yet. But I don’t expect things to go as smoothly this week as this will be this unit’s first test against an SEC defense. It’s true that nothing went right last week for the Gamecocks against Vanderbilt, a team that is better than they are giving credit for. But I think they can get back on track this week with the run against a shaky Missouri rushing defense. I’ll take this early thinking Sellers won’t play, and if he can give it a go in what feels like a must win game for South Carolina, I’ll consider it a plus.

South Carolina +10.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

While there are plenty of games that should captivate college football fans across the nation on Saturday, one of the more under the radar games that should have your attention is a Big 12 vs AAC contest, where the East Carolina Pirates will host the BYU Cougars in a compelling clash that should produce plenty of fireworks. BYU has seemed to adapt to life without former quarterback Jake Retzlaff pretty well, as true freshman Bear Bachmeier has stepped in as the leader of this offense and has played mistake-free football over the first 2 weeks of the season. The Cougars have largely relied on their solid ground game (24th in EPA per rush) to lead the way against lesser competition, and Bachmeier hasn’t had to do all that much as a result. However, that will change this week in his first road start against an upstart opponent that is playing very well and boasts one of the more underrated environments in the sport. This is a massive step-up in class for the young quarterback, and I’m not sure how well he fares in this spot.

As for the hosts, the Pirates were a team that I was looking to back heading into the season, and I’ve largely been impressed with what they’ve accomplished thus far. NC State’s offense has proven to be quite good to this point, and East Carolina was able to limit CJ Bailey and the Wolfpack to just 24 points, with only 7 of those points coming in the second half. The defensive metrics for the Pirates aren’t staggering by any means, but it helps matters that BYU’s passing offense has been mediocre to this point (54th in passing success rate). The Cougars are also 98th in points per quality drive, which would give me real cause considering their first 2 games were against Portland State and Stanford. On the other side of the ball, the Pirates will likely have the better quarterback in this game, as Katin Houser has impressed this season, throwing for nearly 1,000 yards through 3 games while tossing 5 touchdowns to just 1 interception. I expect this one to be a close contest from start to finish, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Pirates won outright. BYU has the slightly stronger statistical profile, but the Cougars have yet to be tested. With that in mind, this game should be decided by one possession either way.

BYU vs East Carolina prediction: East Carolina +7.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 7.

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Let’s start with the Commodores, who have quickly become one of the hottest teams in college football. Vandy has been on a spree, covering their first three of the year. Vanderbilt has also earned a Top 25 ranking and sit undefeated in their exploits. Last week, Vanderbilt hammered South Carolina in Columbia, 31-7 making a Heisman hopeful in Lanorris Sellers look like an afterthought. Before we go any further, the Dores went from a five-point dog at open to a 27-point favorite in one week. That’s a sign of a massive overreaction and when we add in their stock is elevated, the propensity for an overlay is extreme.

For Georgia State, they drag their feet in at 1-2 with only a FCS victory to their name. In FBS play, the Panthers have been blownout by Ole Miss and Memphis by a combined margin of 101-23. On paper, they should be a snack for the Commodores, especially considering that Vandy is looking to avenge a loss last year against this very squad. GSU is also 0-3 against the number on the year, so that narrative incentivizes the market to back Vanderbilt here at an inflated number. Will Diego Pavia and company get their vindication? Sure but will they also cover a substantial number? That we’re not sold on, betting Vanderbilt here is simply laying too many points because of the contrasting trends both teams are projecting. Grab the points.

Georgia State vs.  Vanderbilt prediction:  Georgia State +27 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to number posted.

The Stanford Cardinal makes one of their dreaded cross-country ACC trips, this time to face the Virginia Cavaliers. Neither team is very good, but there is a lot of hope in Charlottsville these days. The Cavaliers opened the season 2-1 with resounding wins over weaker opponents William & Mary and Coastal Carolina. They lost at NC State in a game where they posted over 500 yards of offense but somehow couldn’t score in the 4^th quarter when it mattered. Stanford, on the other hand, opened with a heartbreaking loss at Hawaii followed by a beating at BYU, but then got their first conference win against Boston College a week ago. This spread is up to a dicey -15.5, which is too risky for me in a game between two not-so-good teams. Instead, I think I will back the offenses on Saturday night and take the game total over 49.

Virginia has some exciting things going on the offensive side of the ball. North Texas transfer QB Chandler Morris comes in after one of the more prolific passing seasons in history. He was certainly a product of the North Texas system, but UVA is trying to run some similar pass-first principles, and they want to score lots of points. Their defense will be a work in progress all season though, which also has me on the over. It is hard to know what we will get from Stanford, but this is not a matchup with an elite defense by any means, and they will have to push the offense to try to keep up with Virginia, so I am betting on them being able to keep pace a little bit. I’ll take the over.

Stanford vs Virginia Prediction: Over 49 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane hit the road to battle the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater. Oklahoma State leads the all-time series 44-28-5, including 10 straight victories in the series since Sept. 11, 1999, including a 45-10 win last season on Sept. 14 in Tulsa. Oklahoma State is 6-1 against the spread in the past 7 meetings, with the under going 4-0.

Tulsa dropped a 42-23 game at home against Navy, failing to cover as a 14-point underdog as the over cashed. The under is 2-1 in 3 games to date, however. For Oklahoma State, the last time we saw it on the football field, it was blasted 69-3 at Oregon as a 28.5-point underdog. Oklahoma State will be champing at the bit to get back on the field after a bye win Week 3. However, Oklahoma State is 0-2 against the spread so far this season, and it’s hard to understand why the Cowboys are favored by 2 touchdowns in this one. The Golden Hurricane might not win, but a team which was dusted by 66 last time out has no business laying double digits to anybody. Take the Golden Hurricane plus the points in this one.

Tulsa vs Oklahoma State prediction: Tulsa +13 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +12.5.

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This is a tough spot for the ‘Hogs, not only because it’s their second straight road game, but because this is the epitome of a sandwich spot. Arkansas took Ole Miss to the brink in Oxford last week and probably should have won, but a costly fumble near the red zone shattered the opportunity. Now, they have this odd non-conference road game against a Group of 5 team right before welcoming Notre Dame to Fayetteville next week. Meanwhile, Memphis coasted through a relatively easy opening 3 weeks despite playing on the road twice already, beating each of its opponents by at least 20 points.

Arkansas will obviously be a drastic step up in class compared to the quality of competition Memphis has seen to this point, but I still believe the Tigers are the side to bet at home on Saturday. Contrary to previous years, the Tigers have relied heavily on the run this season, and they’ve been good at it – ranking top 25 in PPA per rush outside of garbage time against their FBS opponents, as well as top 45 in rush success and explosiveness. This should be an area of opportunity for the Tigers in this matchup considering Arkansas is 93rd in opposing rush PPA and 135th in rushing success rate allowed outside of garbage time.

On the other side, the Razorbacks are extremely dynamic thanks to quarterback Taylen Green. However, he has 4 turnover-worthy plays in his last 2 games, and he hasn’t exactly been the most reliable when playing away from home since he arrived at Arkansas. Against a Memphis defense that generates havoc at a top 12 rate while holding opponents to fewer than 2 points per scoring opportunity, the Razorbacks could be met with some resistance when trying to finish drives on Saturday. 

I power rate this game close to 4 points, so I’m seeing a few points of value on the Tigers here. While I realize Arkansas is a step up in class compared to who Memphis has played to his point, playing power conference opponents have not intimidated the Tigers under Ryan Silverfield. In fact, they are 2-2 SU against Power Four teams over the last 4 years, and only 1 of those losses was by more than 7 points. Give me Memphis.

Arkansas vs Memphis prediction: Memphis Tigers +7.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to +7 (-120)

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The final chapter of the Battle for the Iron Skillet takes place on Saturday afternoon from Amon G. Carter Stadium on the campus of TCU. The rivalry between the Mustangs and the Horned Frogs is a storied one, dating back to 1915, but this will be the last time they meet on the gridiron for the foreseeable future due to conference realignment and changes in scheduling. SMU has taken three of the last five meetings, but TCU has controlled this series since the mid-1990s. The Horned Frogs are also in a revenge spot here, as the Mustangs took advantage of 5 TCU turnovers and 14 TCU penalties in a 66-42 win at SMU last year. 

The Mustangs benefitted from 3 defensive/special teams touchdowns in the win against the Horned Frogs last year, not to mention SMU running back Brashard Smith’s 127 yards and 3 touchdowns on 18 carries. Unfortunately for the Mustangs, Smith is now with the Kansas City Chiefs, and the defense lost most of its starters from a season ago. Given the roster change, I have a tough time seeing the Mustangs replicating that defensive performance on the road against a TCU team that is 7th nationally in turnover margin through 3 weeks. In fact, the penalty misfortunes in this matchup may now rest with the Mustangs, who are currently 125th in penalties per FBS game.

While the travel is minimal from SMU to TCU, this will be the second straight true road game for the Mustangs, and the atmosphere in a sold-out Amon G. Carter Stadium will be the most hostile SMU has seen this season. That’s not exactly reassuring for the Mustang offense, led by a quarterback in Keving Jennings who already has 8 turnover-worthy plays in 3 games – 2 of which came against an FCS opponent. Even with a great offensive line in front of him, I struggle to trust him in a road setting, especially against a TCU defense that has succeeded in generating havoc thus far.

TCU’s offense is going to be difficult to keep up with if SMU can’t protect the ball. For reference, the Horned Frogs are 6th nationally in PPA per play and 5th in yards per play, in addition to being much better than the Musangs at finishing drives with points. Give me the Horned Frogs to win and cover at home.

SMU vs TCU prediction: TCU Horned Frogs -6.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to -7 (-120).

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Arguably the most important game of the day across the college football landscape comes in Salt Lake City, where the Utah Utes will host the Texas Tech Red Raiders in a battle for supremacy at the top of the Big 12. Texas Tech was the talk of the offseason in this conference due to the influx of money into the program, and the Red Raiders certainly look like one of the top contenders in the league thus far. Behren Morton is back for another season at quarterback, and he’s certainly looked sharp to this point, as he’s led an offense that has put up well over 150 points in 3 games while ranking inside the top 10 in success rate and Early Downs EPA (CFB-Graphs). The defense has been rock solid too (top 10 in success rate and Early Downs EPA), albeit with some occasional chunk plays allowed. Joey McGuire has to be pleased with where his team stands to this point and the national media has certainly taken notice. With that said, it’s hard to gauge just how ready this team is for a big time spot like this, particularly when 2 of their first 3 games came as 50+ point favorites against the likes of Arkansas Pine Bluff and Kent State.

At this point, we know what we’re getting from Morgan Scalley and the Utah defense, and it looks like the Utes are headed for another season where their defense is a top 20 unit in the sport. However, I’d argue that it’s actually the offense that is the flagship unit of this team and gives Klye Whittingham’s group a much higher ceiling than what some may think. Utah’s offense was one that I was higher on than the market coming into the season, and the results have been even better than what I expected to this point. In fact, what’s been most impressive about the Utes has been their red zone efficiency, with 15 of their 16 red zone possessions resulting in touchdowns this season. Utah’s offensive line might be the best unit in the nation and it’s certainly shown thus far, as Whittingham’s team is averaging 6 yards per rush while converting on 72% of its 3rd downs. Devon Dampier is emerging on a national level as one of the better quarterbacks in the sport, and his play to this point speaks for itself (73% completion, 8 touchdowns to zero interceptions, 66 rush yards per game). Texas Tech’s defensive front is one that has plenty of high-level talent, but the Red Raiders could be in for a rude awakening against Dampier and an offensive line that is projected to have 2 players taken in the first round of next year’s NFL Draft.

While they haven’t played a murderer’s row of opponents to this point, at least the Utes have played a pair of road games, with one of them coming in a difficult environment. Texas Tech hasn’t had to leave Lubbock and the Red Raiders have beaten up on vastly inferior competition through the first 3 weeks. It goes without saying that this will be a monumental step up in class for this group, one that I don’t think will bode well for the Red Raiders in one of the toughest places to play in college football. This is my favorite bet on the board this weekend, especially now that we’ve seen this number dip under a field goal at a couple of outlets. I’ll gladly lay the short number with the Utes in a massive spot at Rice-Eccles.

Texas Tech vs Utah prediction: Utah -2.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 3. 

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This number has come down a bit since the open, but I think we still have a bit of room to run in this Big 12 matchup. As previously mentioned, this game is set for FOX’s Big Noon time slot, meaning that it will kick off at just after 10 a.m. local time. With that in mind, both of these teams could get off to similarly slow starts in what is easily the biggest game of the season for both sides. Often in games of this magnitude, we see the defenses rule the game early on and that can be expected here, especially since both units rank inside the top 20 in success rate allowed and early downs success rate. It’s also reasonable to expect that both offenses could struggle a bit in the early going given the step-up in class compared to their first trio of games, especially in the case of Texas Tech. I would slightly prefer the first half under in this contest, but given how that line has moved dramatically as well, I’ll back the full game under on Saturday in Salt Lake City.

Under 58.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 57.5

Tennessee was involved in perhaps the game of the year thus far, this season when they hosted arch rival Georgia in Knoxville and fell 44-41 in overtime. However, the loss was a gut punch for the Big Orange as they led the Dawgs 21-7 at one point, holding an eight-point lead late in the fourth quarter until on 4th and 6, Gunner Stockton found London Humprhies in the end zone and Georgia equalized. The Vols would get a chance to win the game in regulation but kicker Max Baxter would miss the forty-two yard field goal. Subsequently, Georgia would win it in extra time leaving 100,000 stunned.

Without question, the Vols have made their case as a playoff contender and a SEC hopeful. The loss made Tennessee look good and Smokey has improved to 3-0 on the year against the number, despite seeing a lot of action as the dog against Georgia. As a result, one can expect to lay a serious tag against a team like the Blazers here but this is the wrong time to do that. You see, Tennessee is still licking its wounds from last week and while it should win here without fail, it may get off to a slow start after enduring such a heartbreaker. This lends to the Blazers being able to hang around. Also, we can’t expect a four-quarter effort from the Volunteers either, as a road trip to Starkville is on the horizon against a likely undefeated and potentially ranked Mississippi State team. There are multiple ways for the Vols to not cover this lofty number and spotting nearly 40 points is too much at this point in the season. Whether it be a flat first half, the back-door, or Tennessee not caring about running up the score, the Blazers have several avenues to come in under the number. That’s the play here.

UAB vs. Tennessee prediction:  UAB +39.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +39.

Headlining the Week 4 college football slate is Jackson Arnold’s return to Norman to play the Oklahoma Sooners. Oddly enough, his first conference game with Auburn will be against his former team – funny how that works. The Tigers are 3-0 ahead of their trip to Oklahoma, including their notable Week 1 win at Baylor despite being outgained and being flagged for 9 penalties. 

Oklahoma is also 3-0, but arguably in more impressive fashion. Not only is the John Mateer show fully underway in Norman, but the Sooners have been electric on defense – surrendering just 1 touchdown and 19 combined points. The advanced metrics love the Sooners, as they rank top 15 nationally in yards per play, PPA per play, and havoc generated. They have also played very clean football to this point, drawing just 4 penalties per FBS game. 

The Sooners already have the edge defensively in this matchup. Now add in the fact that head coach Brent Venables is very familiar with Arnold and, more specifically, what his weaknesses are, and the vision for Auburn becomes murky in Norman. Look for Venables and the Oklahoma defense to have a solution for Arnold’s run game, forcing him to try to create more with his arm – which doesn’t exactly bode well for Auburn’s offense. Venables’ defenses are known to be very aggressive with a heavy amount of pressure and blitzing, which Arnold really struggles against dating back to his time with Oklahoma. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Oklahoma’s offense struggle to get off the mat in this one. Lay it with Boomer Sooner.

Auburn vs Oklahoma prediction: Oklahoma Sooners -6.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -7 (-120).

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This game could play out like Oklahoma’s matchup with Michigan a few weeks ago. In that game, both teams relied more on the run than the pass, while leaning on their defenses in a big way. As such, there weren’t many possessions in that game, much less scoring opportunities, and it stayed well under the closing total. In fact, there were more punts than scoring plays in that contest. 

Auburn is a run-first team that plays at an average pace, but the Tigers really know how to bleed the clock. They showcased that ability against Baylor in Week 1 with a 6-minute drive and a 7-minute drive, as well as against South Alabama last week when they put together a 16-play drive that lasted over 8 minutes and a 12-play drive that lasted nearly 6 minutes. Oklahoma had similar drives against Michigan, one for 8 minutes and another for 5. Don’t be surprised to see those long drives stall or lead to field goals, as both red zone defenses have good at limiting touchdowns to this point – especially Oklahoma. The Sooners have surrendered just 4 red zone trips, allowing 0 touchdowns and 3 field goals. Meanwhile, the Tigers are top 30 in opposing red zone touchdown percentage, yielding 4 touchdowns on 10 red zone trips. 

I highlighted Oklahoma’s defensive traits in the spread preview and believe those traits correlate with an under in this matchup when considering the expected methodical offensive approach  from both sides. Look for the Sooners to contain Arnold and limit Auburn’s scoring, and expect the clock to be running consistently throughout. 

Auburn vs Oklahoma prediction: Under 47.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 47.

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It’s not the biggest game of the weekend in the Big Ten on paper, but Michigan and Nebraska certainly has the feel of a marquee matchup that could really catapult the winner into Big Ten title game and/or potential College Football Playoff conversations, while the loser will be sent back to the drawing board en route to a slightly disappointing season. Both of these teams have a lot to prove in this matchup, as the Cornhuskers are looking to finally take a noticeable step forward in Matt Rhule’s third season as the head coach, while the Wolverines are coming off a mediocre campaign in 2024 and have already experienced some adversity on the road this season. One of these teams will take a massive step forward toward achieving its goals in 2025, and I’m of the belief that the hosts will emerge victorious on Saturday. 

As I mentioned in my Big Ten preview over the summer, the insertion of 5-star true freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood is a move that instantly raises the ceiling of this Michigan offense quite a bit, and it makes me more bullish on the Wolverines from a long term perspective. However, as we saw against Oklahoma a few weeks ago, Underwood is still very unproven and I think there will be some clear growing pains this season, especially considering the caliber of defense he’ll be facing in this game. Underwood struggled mightily in his first ever road start in an extremely difficult environment, and Memorial Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the Big Ten, especially when factoring in the magnitude of this game. Michigan should look to lean on its ground game, and the Wolverines should see success against a middling Nebraska defense against the run. However, what the Cornhuskers do very well is defend the pass, get off the field on 3rd down and limit the scoring chances of their opponents (11th in net points per drive), all of which should limit Michigan’s success on offense in this one. 

On the other side of the ball, the Michigan defense continues to remain sold against the run, even without the likes of Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant in the middle of that defensive line. However, the Wolverines have seen a noticeable drop-off in their secondary to this point, and we saw John Mateer and Oklahoma exploit that a bit a few weeks ago. With Michigan sitting at 65th in passing success rate allowed and 82nd in 3rd down success rate (CFB-Graphs), there is a path for Dylan Raiola and a red-hot Nebraska passing attack (2nd in passing success rate, 10th in EPA per dropback) to succeed at home. The Cornhuskers have one of the more underrated skill position groups in the Big Ten, and I’m of the belief that these wideouts can consistently win against a Wolverines secondary that has a lot to prove in this spot. Ultimately, this is a game that I had Nebraska winning prior to the start of the season and nothing I’ve seen from either side has altered that notion to this point. Look for Rhule’s team to finally get over the hump against a ranked opponent on Saturday.

Michigan vs Nebraska prediction: Nebraska ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable to +110. 

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On paper, this has all of the makings of a typical Big Ten grinder. Despite the fact that Nebraska’s run defense is mediocre and Michigan should experience success on the ground, I’m not sold on Underwood’s ability to have success through the air against a Nebraska secondary that has been a top 20 unit in the sport. From a pace of play perspective, niether team plays particularly fast and I’m not confident in either offense to generate consistent scoring chances that don’t come as a result of longer, more methodical drives. This is an instance where both teams start fast and the game appears to be on a higher-scoring track, before things grind to a half for a bit in the second half. I’ll back the under on Saturday.

Under 46.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.5

We’re still going to continue our attack on Notre Dame as all the pieces of the puzzle warrant such a move. Notre Dame has lost two back-to-back bitter defeats but Saturday’s last-minute loss to the Aggies was far more egregious than their opening week stumble at Miami. A missed extra point by way of a botched snap ultimately did the Irish in, that’s what you will hear. But what about the fact that Notre Dame’s defense gave up 40 points in South Bend? One can blame a loss on a moment, but the entire body of week throughout that contest illuminates why A&M went into Notre Dame Stadium and stole a win.

Nevertheless, the Irish are still ranked and still carrying that betting momentum from last season where they ran off 11 straight wins straight up and against the spread. They are still overvalued even if their last two showings were gut-wrenching to backers and Irish fans alike. Notre Dame has to get over last week’s debacle, Purdue meanwhile will be coming in with nothing to lose and everything to gain against a defense that is uncertain. No reason to be laying this kind of price with the Irish here, at all. Boiler up.

Purdue vs. Notre Dame prediction:  Purdue +24.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +24.

There is genuine excitement for football in Starkville right now as the Mississippi State Bulldogs welcome the Northern Illinois Huskies to town on Saturday afternoon. After finishing last in the SEC last season, the Bulldogs are already off to a great start. They opened with a win over a decent Southern Miss team, and then they manhandled Arizona State, a team that has a likely future NFL quarterback and receiver. Northern Illinois, on the other hand, struggled in their opener against Holy Cross, then covered in a loss to Maryland in a slow 20-9 grind. I think this is a spot where Mississippi State dominates early, then tries to sit some guys late, if they can, with conference play starting next week. Give me the cowbells and Miss St -21.

The Bulldogs have found an effective passing attack early with the return of Blake Shapen (formerly of Baylor, injured most of last year). They have also found some dogs on defense, and they might have enough on the defensive side to give them a shot in a great many SEC games. For NIU, things are not looking great. They were always going to be more defense than offense, but so far, they have generated precious little on the offensive side, and now they have to roll into a hostile SEC stadium. Honestly, -21 is my least favorite number, because there always seems to be one or two of these each year where the underdog wins outright. But no way it is this one. The Huskies just aren’t that good. I’m hoping we get enough love from the public who remember the Norte Dame game and back the Huskies, but I think the Bulldogs roll. I’ll lay the points.

Northern Illinois vs Mississippi State Prediction: Mississippi State -21 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Boise State travels to Colorado to face the Air Force Academy on Saturday in a Mountain West clash. Boise, who is largely expected to cruise through the Mountain West schedule, got off to a rough start with a loss to South Florida. I am willing to buy that South Florida is pretty good, and that they snuck up on their first couple of opponents. Air Force has split their first two games, cruising past Bucknell before getting beaten soundly by Utah State. Interestingly, not much was expected of Utah State, which raises some red flags about Air Force. I think there is a strong chance that Boise smokes the Falcons in this spot, even if it is a tough road game for the Broncos. Give me Boise State -10.

There is little question that Boise has far more talent in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and they should be able to push around the much smaller Falcon linemen. We know what AFA wants to do on offense with their run-heavy option scheme, but this is the one major spot on the schedule where they are heavily outsized and outmatched. If Air Force spends much time behind the sticks, this could get ugly. Boise should be able to move the ball on the ground and in the air, and I don’t think they will have much trouble scoring. Air Force can grind a game out and slow down the pace sometimes, but I think Boise should have no trouble winning by a couple of scores in the end.

Boise State vs Air Force Prediction: Boise State -10 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

It’s not the most consequential games of the weekend in the Big 12, but we still have a marquee matchup on our hands in this extremely competitive conference when the Arizona State Sun Devils take on the Baylor Bears on Saturday. The Sun Devils have been a bit disappointing compared to preseason expectations to this point, as Kenny Dillingham’s team look lethargic in Week 1, before dropping a nonconference tilt against Mississippi State after initially rallying to take the lead in the final few minutes. Sam Leavitt was projected to be one of the best quarterbacks in the nation coming into the campaign, but this passing offense has yet to really get going (77th in passing success rate, 75th in EPA per dropback). This is somewhat of a surprise considering the returning production on this offense, including top wideout Jordan Tyson, who has already hauled in 24 receptions and 4 touchdowns to this point. In fact, it is the ground attack that has done the job for the Sun Devils, with Arizona State sitting inside the top 30 in rushing success rate and EPA per rush. However, this is still a team that has plenty of talent and has the ability to produce consistent offense, as shown in their Early Downs EPA (ranked 32nd per CFB-Graphs). That gives me confidence in their ability to put up points in this one.

As for the hosts, Baylor was a popular choice to win the Big 12 in the offseason, and while those dreams are very much still alive for Dave Aranda’s squad, the Bears desperately need to figure things out on the defensive side of the ball. The Bears defense is a whopping 124th in success rate allowed, 121st in net points per drive and 119th in Early Downs EPA on the season. Furthermore, the primary thing that gave the Baylor defense fits in its first 2 games was the ground attack of Auburn and SMU, which gives me confidence that the Sun Devils should continue to run the ball well in this one. On the other side of the ball, Sawyer Robertson has looked like one of the best quarterbacks in the nation thus far and the Baylor offense has been very potent, ranking inside the top 30 in passing success rate, points per drive, along with top 10 marks in Early Downs EPA and quality drives created. With that in mind, both teams should score plenty of points in a game that I expect to come down to the final few possessions. Rather than back a side in this game, I can only look toward the over on Saturday. 

Arizona State vs Baylor prediction: Over 59.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 60.5

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Billy Napier’s seat is getting hot again in Gainesville, as the Gators dropped to 1-2 after a tough showing at LSU last week. Florida’s defense was excellent, holding LSU to 316 yards, 4/14 on third down, and 3.8 yards per carry. However, DJ Lagway’s struggles continued, throwing not one, not two, but five interceptions in Death Valley. His decision making will be put to the test again this week in another true road game at in-state rival Miami, who just decimated the very USF team that beat Florida in Week 2. 

Miami’s offense has been cruising. The Hurricanes are top 25 in yards per play, PPA per play, points per scoring opportunity, and red zone touchdowns. They also sit top 25 in turnover margin, PPA per rush allowed, and havoc generated. In other words, they are set up to stop Florida’s rushing attack – spearheaded by Jadan Baugh and Ja’Kobi Jackson – and force Lagway into tough throws with high turnover probability. 

This is absolutely a desperation spot for the Gators, but it’s tough to trust their offense enough to stay within the number against a Carson Beck-led offense that can seemingly score any time it touches the ball. Not to mention this is Florida’s second-consecutive road game and top-5 matchup. Look for Beck and his talented group of pass-catchers to find success against a Florida secondary that is outside the top 60 in PPA per pass, and expect the Miami pass rush to put Lagway in uncomfortable situations throughout. 

Florida vs Miami prediction: Miami Hurricanes -7.5 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to -9.

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All three of Florida’s games have stayed under the total, and I expect that trend to continue at Hard Rock Stadium against the Hurricanes on Saturday night. The Gators have struggled mightily on the offensive side of the ball, ranking outside the top 90 in yards per play and PPA per play, in addition to 126th in turnover margin and 125th in penalties per game. Furthermore, they’ve had difficulty finishing drives with points, as they sit outside the top 75 in points per opportunity and outside the top 50 in red zone trips. 

Defensively, Florida played very well last week, and while I don’t feel the Gators can completely stifle the Hurricanes offense, they should be able to at least apply enough resistance to Carson Beck and company to keep this game under the total. If nothing else, Florida’s defense has been solid at preventing quality drives, and when opponents happen to get to the red zone, the Gators have held them out of the end zone more often than not. Again, Miami should score enough to build a margin and cover the number due to Florida’s offensive issues, but not enough to propel this over the total.

For what it’s worth, neither of these offenses play with much pace. In fact, both teams are outside the top 30 in plays per game and rank 120th or lower in seconds per play. Let’s take the under here. 

Florida vs Miami prediction: Under 51.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to 51.

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One of the biggest games on the Week 4 college football slate comes in Bloomington, Indiana on Saturday, when the Illinois Fighting Illini take on the Indiana Hoosiers. This is a massive game in the Big Ten for a couple of teams that have an outside shot of disrupting the College Football Playoff picture, and it features a team that I am looking to back against a team I feel very comfortable fading.

Earlier this season, I faded Illinois against Duke and I would still make that bet again given the circumstances around that game. After all, Illinois won the turnover battle 5-0, was gifted points by the Blue Devils on numerous occasions and was able to take advantage of special teams miscues and untimely penalties from Duke in the victory. The Illini were still outgained in that game and Duke registered a 49% success rate (85th percentile) on an Illinois defense that is outside the top 100 in passing success rate and rate of quality drives allowed (CFB-Graphs). In steps an Indiana offense that has been rolling of late, as the Hoosiers sit inside the top 5 in passing success rate and lead the nation in points per quality possession (all drives across the opponents 40-yard-line). Fernando Mendoza certainly looks like one of the better quarterbacks in the nation to this point and the Hoosiers have plenty of skill position talent at their disposal against an Illini secondary that has certainly struggled in the lone game where they had to play a competent offense. The Indiana offensive line is also quite strong, and it should hold an edge in this game against an Illinois defensive front that has yet to face a unit of this caliber.

On the other side of the ball, I’m still not sold on Luke Altmyer and the Illinois passing attack. Despite the fact that the Illini receivers did step up against Duke, that performance has not aged particularly well, seeing as we just saw Tulane make quick work of the Blue Devils’ defense, to the tune of nearly 7 yards per play. The Illini have also struggled with generating explosiveness on offense, particularly in the passing game (69th in passing explosiveness), and that factors in games against Western Michigan and a very poor Western Illinois team. Indiana’s defense is an experienced veteran group and the Hoosiers will certainly be looking to generate turnovers against an Illinois side that has not thrown an interception or lost a fumble to this point in the season. Ultimately, I’m getting to back a great coach in Curt Cignetti, plus the better quarterback in this game at home. I’ll trust my instincts and lay the number with the Hoosiers.

Illinois vs Indiana prediction: Indiana -4 available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5

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These teams both have the capability to be very explosive, and we’ve seen as such in each of their first 3 games. However, this is a step-up in class for both sides on Saturday, and this game should be played at a lot slower of a pace on a down-to-down basis. After all, both of these teams are outside the top 100 in plays run per game, along with similar marks in plays per minute. Couple that with the fact that Indiana has been a particularly strong side in terms of controlling the clock, and all signs are pointing to a more deliberately played game in Bloomington. With that in mind, it’s not a shock that the market has come down a bit off the opener of 54 for this game. It’s not my strongest play on the board by any means, but I’ll take the under at the current number.

Under 53 available at time of publishing. Playable to 52.5

The Texas Longhorns have looked mighty unimpressive through the first three weeks of the season, even showing some signs of struggle against a far inferior UTEP squad. With that being said, Sam Houston State likely boasts the worst defensive unit Texas will see this season, ranking 134th in defensive EPA margin and 114th in defensive success rate against the pass. If there was ever a game for Arch Manning to break out of his early-season blues, it would be against this Bearkats’ defense. I expect the Longhorns to be looking to make a statement in a dominant win for the first time this season, and the offense should be rolling early and often in this matchup.

As for Sam Houston’s offense, there isn’t much to write home about. The Texas defense is elite, ranking top-15 in success rate. With that being said, the Bearkats are averaging a respectable 21.6 points per game and even a single touchdown could help push this one over as I have the Longhorns projected for over 40 points by themselves. Texas could very well push this one over themselves, and I’ll take the over.

Sam Houston State vs Texas prediction: Over 51.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.