College Basketball Picks

The Duke Blue Devils and the Michigan State Spartans will meet in a massive non-conference matchup at noon ET on Saturday on FOX, and the beautiful thing about this game is that it will be played on Michigan State’s campus at the Breslin Center instead of a neutral-site venue that’s a quarter of the way full. Considering MSU’s fall semester doesn’t end until next week, it should be lively in the Breslin Center ahead of Duke’s first test in a truly hostile environment – no offense to Army. These teams are a perfect 17-0 combined, so someone’s perfect record will pick up its first blemish of the season after this one. 

I’m a bit surprised to see this total in the low 140s. Tom Izzo’s Spartans are outside the top 200 in KenPom’s average possession length metric and have been known to slow their home games down to a slog; look no further than their last game against Iowa or their game against Arkansas on November 8. Michigan State also excels at taking away chances at the rim, which is a detriment to Duke’s offense. The Blue Devils are 22nd nationally in near-proximity shot frequency (Haslametrics), and the Spartans are even better at taking those shots away. Sparty has the requisite size to disrupt Cam Boozer at the basket and keep Duke off the glass, forcing the Blue Devils into more contested jump shots – which isn’t exactly a recipe for success in a hostile road game. 

Michigan State has improved its perimeter shooting compared to last year, but the Spartans still don’t shoot from range a ton. In fact, they love to operate in the midrange relative to the rest of the county. Duke will give up those midrange shots, but like Sparty, the Blue Devils are long enough to contest most jump shots. 

Both of these defenses are top-5 in efficiency, top-25 in opposing effective field goal percentage, and top-30 in block rate. Furthermore, Duke and Michigan State are very disciplined defensively in that they are top 100 in free throw rate allowed, which is always good to see when betting an under. That’s exactly the way I’m going to go here, low on the total. 

Duke vs Michigan State prediction: Under 142.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It’s a top-10 battle as #1 Purdue welcomes #10 Iowa State in what should be an exciting matchup. The Boilermakers haven’t had too many problems this season — they knocked off then-#8 Alabama by 8 and cruised past then-#15 Texas Tech by 30 points. Purdue is ranked first in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom and 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Boilermakers have plenty of scoring options, with 4 players averaging double-digits — but this will be one of the hardest tests on the season for Purdue. Iowa State is more than capable of competing on both ends of the floor. 

Iowa State has faced only one ranked opponent this year, St. John’s, whom the Cyclones defeated 83-82 in the Players Era Tournament. The Cyclones have to be eager to prove to the college basketball world that they have the talent to take down #1 Purdue. Leading this Iowa State offense is Joshua Jefferson, who is averaging 18.4 and 7.3 rebounds per game. The Cyclones have 4 players averaging double-digits, and 3 of those 4 players are averaging at least 18 points per game. This will be an exciting matchup, and even though the Cyclones haven’t faced a defense like Purdue yet this season, they have enough talent to keep this game close. Look for Iowa State to push the pace against Purdue and keep this game closer than the Boilermakers would like. 

Iowa State vs Purdue prediction: Iowa State +5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It’s an action-packed Saturday as Rhode Island heads to Amica Mutual Pavilion to take on Providence. The Friars bounced back nicely from losses to Wisconsin and Florida against FDU on Tuesday with a 94-64 win, shooting 58.3% from the field. Rhode Island enters with a 3-game winning streak, but it will be facing a Providence team that loves to push the pace — a style the Rams aren’t typically comfortable with. 

Defensively, the Rams hold the advantage in this matchup. They are holding opponents to just 40.8% shooting from the floor and giving up only 66.3 points per game. The Friars are allowing opponents to shoot 42.3% and average 83.7 points per game. Offensively, though, it’s a different story. Providence is averaging 90.4 points per game compared to the Rams’ 77.2. The last time these 2 met, Rhode Island walked away with a 69-63 victory on its home court. Providence is 19-7 all-time against Rhode Island, and the Friars have one of the best home crowds in all of college basketball. Despite Providence having the depth and speed, this Rhode Island team is no pushover. We have seen Providence give up 104 points to Wisconsin, 90 to Florida, 97 to Colorado and 107 to Virginia Tech. Look for the Rams to keep this game close, as they will rely on their defense to slow down the Friars — making them my best bet of the day.  

Rhode Island vs Providence prediction: Rhode Island +7.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Wisconsin welcomes in-state rival Marquette as it looks to build on a recent 85-73 win over Northwestern. The Golden Eagles are coming off a win of their own, defeating Valparaiso 75-72 in overtime. Marquette has struggled to start the season, averaging 81.4 points per game while giving up 74.2. The Badgers are slightly better, averaging 86.9 points per game while allowing 73.5.

The Badgers will lean on their top scoring duo, Nick Boyd (20.9 ppg) and John Blackwell (19.9 ppg), to set the tone. Marquette’s defense has been inconsistent, but Wisconsin’s offense has also shown stretches of uneven play. Marquette will lean on Chase Ross (20.3 ppg) and Nigel James Jr. (12.3 ppg), and perimeter shooting that is capable of keeping them in the game. Wisconsin is allowing opponents to shoot 35.8% from deep this season, and that’s something Marquette will look to take advantage of in this matchup. Despite its up-and-down start, Marquette has kept all of its losses within single-digits aside from a matchup with Indiana. Look for the Golden Eagles to give it their all and keep this game close — making them my best bet of the day. 

Marquette vs Wisconsin prediction: Marquette +11 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Louisville Cardinals and the Indiana Hoosiers will meet for a non-conference game in Indianapolis on Saturday. It will be a top-25 showdown at Gainbridge Fieldhouse and Hoosiers fans should be there in great force. Indiana fans can attend this marquee non-conference game before heading down the street to Lucas Oil Stadium to see its football team play Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. I expect the arena to be mainly Indiana fans, but my best bet of the game is the over.

The total is currently set 159 points and that is too low for my liking. I expect this game to possibly finish in the 80s for each team due to the pace of the game and Louisville’s high-powered offense. The Cardinals will look to speed things up and get up 3s at a high rate. They are ranked #2 in the nation in 3-point attempts per game and 3-point field goals made per game. According to KenPom, Louisville is ranked #10 in average offensive possession length and #47 in adjusted tempo, which is why you should expect a fast-paced game. Louisville’s offense is ranked as the #4 offense in the country in adjusted efficiency and is averaging 94.6 points per game. The Cardinals should have little issue putting up points in this one.

Neither Louisville nor Indiana has been great on defense this year, so the offense should be on full display under the bright lights in the Pacers’ home arena. According to Bart Torvik, both teams rank outside the top 80 in adjusted defensive efficiency against top-100 opponents this season. I expect shots to go in at a high rate in this game and the total to go over 159. I’m backing the over.

Louisville vs Indiana prediction: Over 159 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 160.

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The Maryland Terrapins will travel to Iowa City on Saturday for a Big Ten Conference game against the Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa is 0-1 in conference play following its blowout loss to Michigan State on Tuesday night, but I expect a bounce-back performance on its home floor against a less talented Maryland team. The Terrapins will open conference play on Saturday and are projected to start 0-1 as +13.5 underdogs. This is a big number, but I see Iowa covering the spread.

Iowa did not look good in its Big Ten opener, but I expect a much better performance in game 2. Maryland has not looked good against stuff competition this season and I do not see the Terps finding their way against a very well-coached and disciplined Iowa team. Maryland lost to Georgetown by 10, Gonzaga by 39 and Alabama by 33. The Terrapins’ defense has looked vulnerable in numerous games this year, as they gave up over 100 points to Gonzaga and Alabama. According to KenPom, Maryland’s defense is ranked #247 in effective field-goal percentage, #279 in 2-point percentage and #187 in 3-point percentage. On Bart Torvik, their defense is ranked #235 in adjusted defensive efficiency against top 100 opponents. I do not see them being able to stop this Iowa offense.

Iowa’s offense struggled against Michigan State but has been efficient in other games this year. The Hawkeyes play at a very slow pace but are led by one of the best guards in the country, Bennett Stirtz.  Their offense is ranked #17 in effective field-goal percentage and #16 in 2-point percentage. Their offense should have success in this one and they should be able to win the turnover battle, as their defense is one of the best in the country in turning opposing teams over and Maryland has issues taking care of the ball. I’m backing Iowa to cover.

Maryland vs Iowa prediction: Iowa -13.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -14.

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The Baylor Bears and Memphis Tigers will face off in FedEx Forum on Saturday for a non-conference matchup. Baylor has lost just 1 game this season and will look to give Memphis its fifth loss of the year already. The Tigers have endured a tough non-conference schedule and lost 4 straight games to Ole Miss, UNLV, Purdue and Wake Forest before winning their last 2 games against Southern Illinois New Orleans. Memphis has struggled to beat good teams so far this year, so my best bet of the game is Baylor -3.

Memphis returned zero minutes from its last team year; I expect it to take more time to get used to playing with each other. Baylor has figured it out quicker than Memphis and has picked up 2 high-major wins this season already. The Bears’ offense has looked great to start the year, and it should be too much for the Memphis defense to handle. They are averaging 90.1 points per game and scored 110 in their last game. They have scored more than 90 points in 4 of their games and are currently ranked #8 in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. Baylor should be able to have success on the offense glass, too, as it is ranked #9 in offensive rebounding percentage while Memphis’ defense is ranked #300. Baylor is the better-coached team and has looked superior so far this season, so let’s take them to cover -3.

Baylor vs Memphis prediction: Baylor -3 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.

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The Illinois Fighting Illini and the Tennessee Volunteers face off on Saturday in Nashville as part of the Music City Madness event. Although not technically a home game, you can imagine the crowd will be more heavily tilted toward the Vols. Tennessee needs to get this win, as it has dropped 2 in a row. The Volunteers lost a game to Kansas in Vegas by 5 points and then surprisingly fell to an upstart Syracuse team on the road earlier this week. The Illini just lost by 13 to UConn and they lost to Alabama earlier in the year — thus they, too, could use a quality win. These teams should be evenly matched, even if they are completely different styles. I think the best play in this game is to take the under at 150.5.

Illinois is an old, veteran team that likes to play fast on offense. Tennessee is a slow, grinding team that is stifling on defense. This kind of conflict in styles usually goes the way of the slow defensive team, and that is what I expect on Saturday. When you play Tennessee, it takes most of the shot clock to find a shot and you rarely get a second one. That is the main reason most Vols games stay under the point total. In fact, these 2 teams faced off in Champaign last year and the Volunteers won 66-64 on a last-second layup. This year’s version of these teams have different players, but a very similar style and DNA. I look for a similar result. Give me the under — especially in a strange gym that is home to neither team.

Illinois vs Tennessee prediction: Under 150.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Auburn Tigers head to the desert to face the Arizona Wildcats on Saturday night. Arizona has yet to lose this season, and it has already notched wins over Florida, UConn and UCLA. Auburn comes in at 7-2, with losses to Michigan and Houston, but also with a win over St. John’s. Both teams have scheduled well, and both teams are good. However, I have a really hard time betting against this Arizona team right now — a team that I think is one of the 2 or 3 best in the nation. Especially playing this game in Tucson, I will take the Wildcats to cover -8.5.

Auburn had to reload the roster following last year’s Final Four run. The Tigers lost all of their starters and eventually also their head coach, as Bruce Pearl handed things off to Steven Pearl. This is still a talented roster, though, and it is better on the offensive end than the defensive. Arizona, on the other hand, is one of the fastest and most prolific scoring teams in the country. The Wildcats rank 12th in both offensive and defensive efficiency through the first month of the season, while also playing at a fast pace. Koa Peat might be the most talented freshman in the country in a very loaded freshman class, and he is by no means alone on this roster. Auburn is good, and there is nothing to hate there, but Arizona is playing on another level right now. Give me the Wildcats.

Auburn vs Arizona prediction: Arizona -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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