College Basketball Picks

After a late-game collapse against Duke, No. 9 Michigan State will look to bounce back against Penn State on Saturday afternoon. Over the final nine minutes against Duke, the Spartans managed to score only four points in seven minutes, which proved costly as they fell to the Blue Devils 66-60. The Spartans have one of the most pesky defenses in all of college basketball, and according to KenPom they’re ranked 6th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. On Saturday, the Nittany Lions will have their hands full as points will be tough to come by against this Spartans team.

Penn State is coming off a lopsided 113-72 loss to Indiana, a game where the Hoosiers shot an incredible 68.9% from the floor. If Penn State doesn’t improve things on defense, Michigan State will have a great opportunity to run away with this one early on. The Spartans don’t only have the edge on defense, they have a major edge on the glass, averaging 45 rebounds per game compared to Penn State’s 34.7. Michigan State’s physicality and defensive pressure should wear down the Nittany Lions over the course of the game. Look for Jaxon Kohler and Jeremy Fears Jr. to set the tone by controlling the tempo and creating frustration for Penn State as the Spartans get back on track Saturday afternoon. 

Michigan State vs Penn State prediction: Michigan State -12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

This number is built almost entirely on perception. Purdue checks every box the market loves: top-10 ranking, home court in West Lafayette, Big Ten pedigree, and the residual glow of a recent stretch where they were viewed as the best team in the country. Marquette has none of that shine right now, which is exactly why the spread has ballooned to a place where competency—not an upset—is all we need.

This isn’t about Marquette being better than Purdue. It’s about how games stay closer than expected when one side can manufacture extra possessions. The Golden Eagles do that as well as anyone. They are among the better teams nationally at forcing turnovers while taking care of the ball themselves. That combination matters a lot when you’re catching a big number, because every extra possession is another chance to shorten the margin. Purdue still has to play clean and motivated basketball for 40 minutes, and Marquette has shown enough defensive activity and ball pressure to prevent this from becoming a runaway. We’re not asking the Golden Eagles to threaten the Boilers—just to stay connected. That’s a reasonable ask at this price. Take the points.

Marquette vs Purdue prediction: Marquette +18.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

Xavier enters this matchup at 7-3 and riding a 4-game home winning streak at the Cintas Center, where they’ve been particularly efficient on both ends. The Musketeers average 78.7 PPG, shoot 36.7% from three, and knock down over 10 triples per game, giving them the perimeter firepower to stretch defenses. Their ball movement has also been a major strength, posting nearly 18.5 assists per game, and forward Tre Carroll continues to drive the offense with 17.3 PPG following a recent 30-point outburst against Cincinnati. Defensively, Xavier has been solid at home, rebounding well enough to limit second chance opportunities.

Missouri State, meanwhile, enters at 4-4 and hasn’t yet proven they can win away from home, sitting 0-2 on the road. Still, the Bears have shown competitive scoring ability at 78.6 PPG, even though their 29.7% three-point shooting remains a major weakness. Defensively, they allow 73.9 PPG, which isn’t ideal against a spacing heavy Xavier team, but their top scorers — Keith Palek (16.8 PPG) and Michael Osei-Bonsu (13.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG) — give them enough offensive structure to avoid long scoring droughts. While Xavier holds clear advantages in shooting efficiency and home court performance, Missouri State’s balanced scoring and steady interior play make +18 a sizable cushion. With the Bears capable of keeping the pace manageable and preventing the game from turning into a complete runaway, the underdog cover has real value.

Missouri State vs Xavier prediction: Missouri State Bears +18 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +17.

Bet like a Caesar with this AMAZING new customer offer from Caesars Sportsbook. If you bet just $1, you’ll receive DOUBLE YOUR WINNINGS on your next 20 bets! Become a Caesars member 👥 using the Caesars promo code PWCONTENT20X, where you can bet on our Missouri State vs Xavier picks.

No. 5 UConn heads into tonight’s matchup with Texas at full strength as they look to make it 6 wins in a row. The Longhorns feature a well-balanced offense with 3 players averaging double figures: Matas Vokietaitis (15.9 ppg), Dailyn Swain (15.7 ppg), and Jordan Pope (12.5 ppg). UConn has plenty of scoring options of its own, including Solo Ball (15.0 ppg), Tarris Reed Jr. (14.8 ppg), Alex Karaban (13.4 ppg), and Silas Demary Jr. (10.0 ppg). The Huskies have also been tested early this season, already facing 5 top-25 opponents. They went 4-1 in those games, with their only loss coming against Arizona without Reed.  

Texas hasn’t been through the same gauntlet as UConn, playing just 2 ranked opponents with a 1-1 result. The Huskies have an elite defense, and according to KenPom, they’re ranked 7th in adjusted defensive efficiency. That gives them a decent edge over Texas, who ranks 103rd in that category. However, the Longhorns have an experienced backcourt and are athletic enough to give this UConn team some trouble early on.

Both teams have multiple scoring threats, but Texas will lean on Dailyn Swan to carry his team offensively and Vokietaitis to battle on the glass and create second-chance opportunities. While the Longhorns have struggled on defense at times — surrendering 73.2 points per game compared to UConn’s 61.7 — they will look to control the tempo early on and should have plenty of success on offense to prevent this game from getting out of hand.  

Texas vs UConn prediction: Texas Longhorns +14.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $150 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Texas vs UConn predictions.