College Basketball Picks

The St. John’s Red Storm and the Kentucky Wildcats will face off in Atlanta on Saturday as part of the CBS Sports Classic. There are lots of storylines to unpack here. There is the coaching matchup—Rick Pitino coached Mark Pope at Kentucky in the 90s, and they won a national title together. Then there is the Atlanta angle—mark that down as a Kentucky home game, and they even like to call it “Catlanta”. Listen, I have been to Atlanta when Kentucky played an NCAA regional there, and the Wildcat fans took over downtown, and were even crushing beers while tailgating in my hotel lobby (but that is a story for another day). And then, of course, there is the fact that both teams have struggled painfully against good opponents this year, and both really do need a quality win. In this spot, I am taking the points with the Wildcats at +3.

Kentucky’s struggles early in the season largely had to do with injuries. This team has a lot of talent and a lot of depth, but they haven’t been healthy in several weeks. They are starting to get there, and you could see the difference in the Indiana game most recently. They will shoot better as they go, but in this matchup, it will be the defense and rebounding that need to make the difference. St. John’s has been playing fast, but the Wildcats are happy to do that too. St. John’s is attacking the rim, but Kentucky defends well in the paint. There seem to be several factors that favor Kentucky in this game, so I am taking the points with the Cats in the Big A as Kentucky starts to work bac to health.

St. John’s vs Kentucky Prediction: Kentucky +3 (-110) available at the time of publishing; Playable to the Money Line.

The North Carolina Tar Heels and the Ohio State Buckeyes will meet in Atlanta for a non-conference matchup on Saturday afternoon. The game will be played inside State Farm Arena for the CBS Sports Classic that is held every year with these two programs. St. John’s has replaced UCLA in the event and will play Kentucky beforehand. The spread is in favor in North Carolina here and I believe that they will cover that spread.

The spread is currently North Carolina -3.5 and that is my best bet of the game. The Tar Heels are 10-1 on the season and have beaten top tier talent like Kansas and Kentucky. Senior guard Seth Trimble is expected to be back for the game on Saturday and could be a difference maker for North Carolina. North Carolina’s defense and size could cause Ohio State issues in this one. According to KenPom, North Carolina’s defense is ranked #5 nationally in two-point percentage, #5 in effective field goal percentage and #22 adjusted defensive efficiency. Ohio State lost to Pittsburgh, who is a below average ACC team, back in November and beat West Virginia by just one in double overtime in their last game. They have not shown that they are a good team yet, so North Carolina should be able to cover the spread here. Take North Carolina.

*North Carolina -3.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at -4*

After a tough overtime loss to Vanderbilt, the Tigers will look to get back on track against Mississippi State on Saturday afternoon. Memphis struggled shooting the ball against Vandy, hitting just 35.9% from the floor, and they’ll need to be more efficient offensively if they want to keep things close with the Bulldogs. Mississippi State is coming off back-to-back wins and they hope they can get their season turned around as they find themselves at the bottom of the SEC standings. 

Memphis will look to Dug McDaniel to help lead his team in this matchup. On the season, the senior is averaging 14.5 points, 5.5 assists, and 3.2 rebounds per game. For Mississippi State, Josh Hubbard leads the team with 21.6 points, 3.9 assists, and 2.7 rebounds per game. The junior is coming off his best game of the season, dropping 34 points against LIU. According to KenPom, Memphis holds the advantage defensively as they rank 32nd in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to Mississippi State who ranks 95th. The Tigers don’t have a lot of depth on their team with just two players averaging double digits, but they have played significantly harder teams than the Bulldogs this year. Memphis has faced then-No. 1 Purdue (lost by 9), then-No. 11 Louisville (lost by 26), and then-No. 13 Vanderbilt (lost by 7). Mississippi State has played just one ranked opponent, then-No. 16 Iowa State, where they lost by 16. Memphis may not look as good on paper, but I think the Tigers can keep this game close and limit the damage done by Hubbard with their defensive pressure, making Memphis my best bet of the day. 

Memphis vs Mississippi State prediction: Memphis +3.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Arkansas Razorbacks and the Houston Cougars will meet in a somewhat-random neutral-site matchup at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ on Saturday evening, tipping off at 5:30 pm ET on CBS. The Razorbacks come into this non-conference showdown with a 9-2 SU record, and they treat bettors well – covering in 8 of 11 games thanks to their current 6-game ATS win streak. Meanwhile, Houston is 10-1 SU with its lone blemish coming against Tennessee in the Players Era, and though the Cougars are just 5-6 ATS, they have covered in 3 straight.

Under Kelvin Sampson, the Cougars are always extremely efficient defensively. They have been a top-10 team in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency every year since the 2020-2021 season, and much of the same is true this year. Houston is typically very good at limiting action around the rim and in the paint, so perimeter shooting is usually a must in order to have any chance against this bunch. In fact, Sampson’s Cougars have historically shown vulnerability against teams that can spread them out defensively. The Razorbacks can do just that, as they are 20th nationally in three-point percentage – knocking down more than 38% of perimeter attempts collectively as a team. Darius Acuff, Karter Knox, and Trevon Brazile all connect on more than 44% of perimeter attempts according to KenPom, and it’s Brazile that is the key to Arkansas’ success here. At 6’10”, his ability to stretch the floor should pull Joseph Tugler and Chris Cenac out of the paint more often than they would like. 

While Houston is very good defensively, the Cougars have been somewhat undisciplined this year. They currently rank 244th in free throw rate allowed this season, surrendering 26 free throws in games away from home. Arkansas can absolutely make Houston pay for its undisciplined defense, as the Hogs make more than 77% of their free throw attempts with multiple players above 80%. Houston will do everything in its power to keep Arkansas out of transition, but I still think John Calipari’s Razorbacks have enough here to at least keep this game close if they don’t win outright. 

Houston vs Arkansas prediction: Arkansas Razorbacks +4.5 (-105) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +2. 

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The Duke Blue Devils and the Texas Tech Red Raiders will play inside Madison Square Garden on Saturday night for a non-conference showdown. There should be numerous Duke fans that travel to the Garden for this game, giving them a great advantage. The Blue Devils have yet to lose this season, and I do not see them losing for the first time here. The spread is set at Duke -9.5 and that is my best bet of the game.

Duke to cover the spread here is my best bet because they are the more talented team and should use their defense to make it hard on Texas Tech to score. The Blue Devils are led by freshman phenom Cameron Boozer, and I see him winning the matchup against Texas Tech star JT Toppin. Texas Tech runs their offense through Toppin, but it might be hard for him to get going with Duke’s amazing interior defense. According to KenPom, Duke’s defense is ranked #1 in effective field goal percentage, #2 in two-point percentage and #3 in adjusted efficiency. They have one of the best defenses in the country and I see that being the difference here. Take Duke to cover.

*Duke -9.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at -10*

The Seton Hall Pirates and the Providence Friars will face off on Friday night for a Big East matchup. Providence is already 0-1 in league play, as the Friars lost their first game to Butler on Saturday. That game went to double overtime and snapped their three-game winning streak. Seton Hall has fared better than expected so far this season and sports just one loss thus far. The Pirates lost to USC by two points in the Maui Invitational semifinals and have won 4 games straight since. I see Seton Hall playing well on the road and covering the short spread here.

The spread is currently set at Seton Hall +2.5 and that seems like too much for a team that has just one loss this year. The Pirates defense has been one of the best in the country this season and that should be the difference. They rank #5 nationally in opposing points per game at 61.6. According to KenPom, Seton Hall’s defense is #4 in turnover percentage, #5 in two-point percentage and #13 in adjusted efficiency. Providence has a good offense that ranks 34th at KenPom, but I do not see the Friars being good enough to cover the spread here. Take Seton Hall to cover.

Seton Hall vs Providence prediction: Seton Hall Pirates +2.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +2.

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Villanova enters this matchup at 8-2 and has looked balanced and efficient on both ends of the floor through the early part of the season. The Wildcats are averaging around 80.4 points per game while holding opponents to roughly 68.1, a margin that reflects strong shot selection and disciplined defense. Bryce Lindsay has emerged as a go-to scoring option at 17.2 points per game on efficient shooting, while Acaden Lewis adds secondary scoring and playmaking to keep the offense flowing. Villanova has also done a good job generating extra possessions through offensive rebounding and ball movement, and its recent road win at Pittsburgh highlighted an ability to control tempo and execute in tougher environments.

Wisconsin comes in at 7-3 with an offense that can score in bunches, averaging approximately 85.1 points per game — but its defensive consistency has been shakier. The Badgers have played at a faster pace than in recent seasons, which has boosted scoring but also led to stretches of rushed possessions and defensive breakdowns — as seen in their lopsided loss to Nebraska. While the Badgers boast capable scorers in the backcourt and can shoot the ball well when in rhythm, their defensive lapses make it difficult to trust them to create separation against a structured team like Villanova. In a neutral site setting where Wisconsin’s home-court edge is largely neutralized, Villanova’s efficiency, rebounding and ability to grind out half-court possessions should keep this game tight.

Villanova vs Wisconsin prediction: Villanova +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +4.

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The Abilene Christian Wildcats are coming off a 96-62 loss at Arizona last time out on Tuesday as 33.5-point underdogs, just missing the cover, as the over (145) cashed. Prior to that, the Wildcats cashed the over in a mild upset over New Mexico State at home on December 6th. The over is 3-1 in the past 4 games for the Wildcats. While Abilene Christian has struggled mightily on offense, it is OK at hitting 3-pointers. And, defensively, the Wildcats have allowed teams to hit 44.6 percent from the field and a whopping 35.8 percent from behind the arc — one of the worst marks in the nation.

For BYU, the No. 10 team in the nation has been on fire. The Cougars are a perfect 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at the Marriott Center this season, while scoring 91 or more points in 3 of the past 4 outings. BYU has managed 85.7 PPG, while connecting at a feverish 49.3% pace from the field, and 36.6% from behind the arc. Defensively, though, the Cougars are very good, holding teams to just 65.3 PPG and 39.4% from the field. AJ Dybantsa has a lot to do with that, as he is a force on both sides of the floor, and Keba Keita is a rebounding machine. BYU will score plenty, but look for ACU to struggle. We’ll go low, as 145.5 is a lot of points. We’re likely to see a 85-55 kind of a game.

Abilene Christian vs BYU prediction: Under 145.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to 144.5.

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Friday night’s final game brings us the Seattle Redhawks vs. the Washington Huskies in a battle for supremacy in the Emerald City. Both teams are off to a strong start, with the RedHawks at 9-2 and the Huskies at 7-3. Seattle is transitioning from the WAC to the WCC this season and has a team good enough to compete in that conference. The Huskies rebuilt their roster after a failed season last year, and they have some offensive punch now. I like both of these teams, and I would not be surprised to see the Redhawks keep pace here. Give me Seattle plus the points.

The Huskies grade out as a well-balanced team through the first third of the season. They have some guys that can score the basketball, and they expect their offense to be their calling card this year, but the defense hasn’t been bad so far either. For Seattle, this is a team that plays better on the defensive end, and historically speaking, they have been a much tougher team in their home state than when they hit the road. This is a fun little in-state battle before conference play gets underway, and I expect it to be close. Take the points with the underdog.

Seattle vs Washington Prediction: Seattle Redhawks +7.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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