College Basketball Picks

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The ACC Tournament continues on Wednesday with 4 second round games, including a rubber match between the SMU Mustangs and Louisville Cardinals at 2:30 PM ET on ESPN after each team earned a win on their home floor during the regular season. SMU opened ACC Tournament play with a convincing 86-69 win over Syracuse on Tuesday, really running away with the game in the second half despite the continued absence of BJ Edwards. Meanwhile, Louisville will play this game without freshman star Mikel Brown Jr., who was announced out for the ACC Tournament on Tuesday. Brown hasn’t played since the loss to Clemson, in which he logged just 21 minutes, but the Cardinals have been fine without him in the short term, ending the season with a big win at Miami thanks to a 50% (12/24) shooting performance. 

Can the Cards keep up their winning ways without their point guard on Wednesday? It’s possible, but Brown played an integral part in both contests with SMU this year. In the first meeting, he dropped 20 points along with 4 assists in 29 minutes, and followed that up with a 29-point performance with 4 more assists in 35 minutes in the second meeting. Louisville has elite shooters in Ryan Conwell, J’Vonne Hadley and Isaac McKneely to fill some of the void left by Brown in a tournament setting, but picking up 49 points worth of slack seems daunting. Don’t get me wrong, Edwards’ absence is a big deal in its own right, but his impact on SMU is not as quite as vast as Brown’s on Louisville. Plus, Edwards is not completely ruled out yet; he’s currently questionable per coach Andy Enfield and a local SMU beat reporter – both of whom made it sound like he was likely to return later in the week if SMU were to advance.

SMU’s body of work to end the season wasn’t very attractive, but I’m not interested in laying more than 2 possessions with Louisville against an SMU offense that leads the ACC in three-point percentage (40.3%), can catch fire just as easily as the Cards and already has a game on this floor under its belt. Louisville’s win at Miami without Brown was impressive, but again, it took making 50% of their threes. Outside of that win, their only other victories without Brown were over Syracuse, Pitt, Boston College, Cal and Montana. 

Per EvanMiya, the Mustangs are top-5 in Pace Adjust, which means SMU plays better than their baseline in uptempo games. That bodes well for the Mustangs on Wednesday considering Louisville is a top-50 team in adjusted tempo. SMU has the horses to keep up with Louisville offensively, so I’m grabbing the points with the underdog in this ACC Tournament matchup. 

SMU vs Louisville Cardinals: SMU Mustangs +6.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +6. 

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It’s a Big Ten matchup as #13 seed USC gets ready to take on #12 Washington. The Huskies are looking to complete the sweep after already winning the first two meetings. USC has struggled badly down the stretch, dropping its last seven games while allowing 86.3 points per game during that span. Washington hasn’t been playing its best basketball either, losing 4 of their last 7, but their defense is only surrendering 71.9 points per game in that timeframe.

Washington has had the better defense all year, holding opponents to 73.1 points per game this season compared to USC 77.8. If the Trojans want any chance to win this game, they’ll need to establish Ezra Ausar and Jacob Cofie in the low post. USC was dominated inside during the last matchup with Washington, getting outscored 54-32 in the paint. A big reason for that was the presence of Washington’s 6-foot-11 freshman, Hannes Steinbach, who scored 22 points in that game. USC simply hasn’t found a way to slow him down in either of the previous meetings, and that interior advantage should once again favor the Huskies. The Trojans are averaging just 69.4 points per game during their current seven-game losing streak and appear to be running out of steam late in the season. Washington should come into this matchup with more momentum and the better offense in this matchup. Look for the Huskies to take care of business and advance to the next round. 

USC vs Washington prediction: Washington -5.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Big 12 tournament gets set for its second full day of action on Wednesday with a showdown between Cincinnati and UCF. Few teams are playing better than Cincinnati at the moment, and the Bearcats are fresh off a win over Utah to keep their slim, but realistic NCAA Tournament hopes alive heading into this contest. Despite a loss to TCU last Saturday, Wes Miller’s team is 12th at BartTorvik since February 1, and the resume over the last month certainly speaks volumes as to how well the Bearcats are playing. Cincinnati has already picked up wins over Kansas, Iowa State and this same UCF team in Big 12 play, so it’s certainly possible that the Bearcats could make a deep run this week in Kansas City.

Unlike their counterparts, the UCF Knights are in the midst of their worst run of form since conference play started, and this is not the time of year to be trending in the wrong direction. In fact, UCF is just 3-6 since February 1 and is in dire need of a shot in the arm following a recent 3-game losing streak that included home losses to Baylor and Oklahoma State, plus a blowout loss at the hands of West Virginia. The Knights are now squarely on the bubble, and it’s hard to see their offense having much success in an early afternoon game in this unfamiliar venue against a Cincinnati defense that is among the best units in the nation. The Bearcats did an excellent job of limiting the Knights’ scoring from beyond the 3-point arc in the first meeting back on February 8, and as long as they are able to win the battle on the glass and keep things close in the shot volume department, there should be plenty of avenues for Cincinnati to see success against this porous UCF defense. I’ll lay the short number with the Bearcats.

Cincinnati vs UCF prediction: Cincinnati -2.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Cincinnati -3.

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This Big East Tournament matchup carries the appearance of a potential trap for bettors. Butler enters with the stronger overall record, a better seed, and the perception of playing more consistent basketball throughout the season. Those factors naturally make the Bulldogs attractive to the market. Providence, by contrast, has not shown the same level of stability and often appears to be the less reliable side. That contrast makes Butler the intuitive choice for many bettors, particularly with the narrative of revenge entering the game.

The two teams split their regular-season meetings, each winning a double-overtime game at home against the other. That setup creates the perception that Butler will be motivated to avenge the most recent result where the Friars escaped with a 10-point win in Providence in February. However, tournament basketball rarely rewards revenge narratives. Neutral-court environments tend to shift focus toward execution and situational performance rather than emotional motivation. Providence has already demonstrated it can compete effectively with Butler. When spreads are this small, the difference frequently comes down to which team handles the key moments more effectively. The oddsmakers are signaling that the team from Rhode Island is the one to trust more.

Butler vs Providence prediction: Providence -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.

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McNeese State is looking to get back to the NCAA Tournament after losing head coach Will Wade to the North Carolina State after last season’s run. The Cowboys won 27 games this season, but they split two meetings with the Lumberjacks of Stephen F. Austin. In the most recent meeting, SFA won 67-60 as a 2.5-point underdog, and the Lumberjacks covered both of the meetings, while holding a 4-3 against the spread (ATS) edge in the past seven meetings. That’s great news if you’re looking for a same-game parlay (SGP) option in this game in Lake Charles, La.

However, the best play in this one is the total, going low. The Under cashed on Jan. 5, as the teams combined for 130 points with a total of 144.5. We had just 127 points in the Feb. 2 meeting with a total of 141.5, so the Under easily cashed in that one as well. McNeese went high in the semifinal against UTRGV, but that game went to overtime. In the final four games of the regular season, all decided in regulation, McNeese went Under at a 4-0 clip. For Stephen F. Austin, the Under went low in the semis against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, while going 3-1 in the past four outings. With plenty of nerves, a trip to the NCAA Tournament on the line, look for rather sluggish offense and a lower-scoring game once again.

McNeese vs Stephen F. Austin prediction: Under 138.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 137.5.

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#15 seed Northwestern took care of business yesterday against #18 seed Penn State, shooting 50.9% from the floor and outrebounding the Nittany Lions 28-22. The Wildcats weren’t as sharp defensively as they would’ve liked, allowing Penn State to shoot 51% from the field. However, they did pressure the Nittany Lions into 17 turnovers, converting those into 24 points. Taking a look at today’s matchup against #10 seed Indiana, these two teams last met on February 24th where Northwestern won 72-68. The Wildcats held the Hoosiers to 46% shooting, and they were able to slow down Lamar Wilkerson who went 5-17 from the field. Northwestern’s defense did a great job shutting down the driving lane for Indiana, forcing the Hoosiers to rely more on perimeter shooting. Expect to see that same defensive pressure from the Wildcats again as they look to advance past Indiana. 

On paper, both teams are fairly similar. Northwestern is averaging 73.3 points per game compared to Indiana’s 78.7. Defensively, the Wildcats are giving up 72 points per game compared to the Hoosiers 72.1. Indiana does have a slight rebounding advantage, averaging 36 per game compared to Northwestern’s 34, and Tre Singleton could be an issue inside for the Hoosiers. Nick Martinelli leads this Wildcats team with 22.8 points and 6.3 rebounds per game. For Indiana, Lamar Wilkerson leads with 21 points per game. This should be a great matchup between two evenly matched teams, and we’ve seen how efficient Northwestern’s offense can be, but they’ll need to shut down the driving lanes and control the boards if they want to stay in this game. Indiana comes into this matchup rested, but they’ve struggled down the stretch, losing five of their last six games. Northwestern, on the other hand, has played better basketball late in the season, winning four of their last six. The Wildcats have been a tough opponent all season long, and I expect Martinelli to lead the way again and help Northwestern keep this game close against Indiana.

Northwestern vs Indiana prediction: Northwestern +4.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The BYU Cougars and the West Virginia Mountaineers will meet in Kansas City on Wednesday in the second day of the Big 12 Conference Tournament. The winner of this matchup will move onto the next round to play the Houston Cougars while the loser will go home. West Virginia needs to win this game to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive, but I do not see them having enough to keep pace with BYU. The Cougars have one of the best freshmen in all of college basketball in AJ Dybansta and I expect him to lead the Cougars to a win here. He had 40 points in their win against Kansas State in round one and should see more success in this one.

BYU has one of the best offenses in the country and they showcased that in their first game inside the T-Mobile Center, as the Cougars scored 105 points and shot an impressive 55 percent from the field. Since February 1, BYU’s offense is ranked 21st nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency while West Virginia’s defense is ranked just 120th in that department. The Mountaineers are just 2-9 over their last 11 games, and I do not see them being able to keep it within the number in this one. Lay the points with BYU.

BYU vs West Virginia prediction: BYU -5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.

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The Patriot League appeared to be one of the more predictable conference tournaments on paper, but things quickly took a turn on Sunday when the Boston Terriers hit a long 3-pointer at the buzzer to knock off top-seeded Navy to advance to the title game for the first time since 2020, a year in which they were unable to compete in the postseason due to Covid. The Terriers have won both of their games in this tournament by a combined 3 points, so they are certainly living on the edge and could be due for some regression in a close game on Wednesday. However, Lehigh has also done extremely well in close games in this tournament, having won its quarterfinal matchup against Holy Cross at the buzzer, before knocking off Colgate as an underdog in the semifinal round. This title game is nearly priced as a pick ’em, which makes sense given the current form of both teams, and how close both regular season meetings were. However, I’m going to eschew backing a side in this one and focus on the total instead.

Conference title games are generally of the lower-scoring variety, and I fully expect this one to stay the same. Lehigh is no stranger to playing lower-scoring games, and it’s no surprise that the Mountain Hawks have one of the worst offenses in the nation (ranked 288th in adjusted efficiency), even against a fairly weak schedule. I wouldn’t expect that to change against a Boston team that was able to hold down Navy’s offense in a similarly high-pressure situation in the semifinal round. On the other side, the Terriers are a team that don’t get to the free-throw line and struggle with turnovers, which is not an ideal combination for playing in a high-stakes game that is expected to be close down the stretch. Look for both teams to start out fairly slow in the first half, and as long as we don’t end up with an overtime game, this one should stay under the total.

Boston vs Lehigh prediction: Under 141.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to Under 140.

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The evening session of the ACC tournament sees the California Bears facing the Florida State Seminoles. They are playing for the right to have a go at Duke tomorrow. Cal is a bubble team that probably needs the win today and tomorrow to get over the hump. I suspect they will bow out today and end all mystery. Florida State won the regular season matchup by 2, but that was in Tallahassee. It is suspicious that moving to a neutral venue has a spread this large, and this game is drawing some attention because of it. I think this line is daring us to take Cal, and I am not going to do it. Give me the Seminoles to cover.

The statistical profiles would suggest this game would stay close. The Noles like to play fast, and they create a lot of turnovers. Cal is more deliberate, and they take care of the basketball. It is odd that this game stayed in the low 60s the first time, and I expect the Seminoles to force the issue a bit more in the rematch. FSU shot terribly behind the arc in the first game, and they had to do all their work in the paint. A little bit of correction there and this is a Florida State cover. I’ll take my chances there.

Cal vs Florida State Prediction: Florida State -4.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Ole Miss Rebels face the Texas Longhorns in an SEC matchup that profiles as a higher scoring contest with the total set at 144.5. Ole Miss enters averaging 74.1 points per game, a number that aligns closely with Texas allowing 74.9 points per game defensively. The Rebels rely on balanced guard play to drive their offense, led by AJ Storr, who leads the team with 15.0 points per game, while forward Malik Dia contributes 5.8 rebounds per game to create second chance opportunities. When Ole Miss finds rhythm from the perimeter and pushes the pace, its offense can generate quick scoring runs, and the Rebels are 8-1 when scoring more than 74.9 points, a key benchmark when facing Texas’ defense.

Texas enters with an offense capable of matching that tempo while leaning on physical interior play and rebounding. The Longhorns average about 75 points per game and hold a +9.2 rebound margin, having outrebounded 20 of their first 23 opponents, which helps generate extra possessions and second chance scoring opportunities. In the teams’ earlier meeting this season, Texas earned a 79-68 victory, finishing on a 14-0 run behind 27 points from Matas Vokietaitis while shooting 53.9% from the field. That game demonstrated how both teams can produce offense in stretches, especially if the tempo increases late. With Ole Miss capable of scoring into the mid-70s and Texas generating additional possessions through rebounding, the ingredients are present for sustained scoring on both sides. If both teams approach their season averages offensively, this matchup has a strong path to clearing the mid-140s.

Ole Miss vs Texas Prediction: Over 145.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 146.5

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The Georgetown Hoyas face the DePaul Blue Demons in a Big East matchup that carries an interesting betting angle after the teams split their regular season meetings. Georgetown enters averaging 78.1 points per game while allowing 74.2, highlighting a team that prefers to push tempo and generate offense through ball movement and transition opportunities. The Hoyas also average 37.3 rebounds and 15.8 assists per game, reflecting an offense capable of creating scoring chances both inside and along the perimeter. Center Vince Iwuchukwu provides a strong interior presence, while guard Malik Mack helps drive the offense from the perimeter. Georgetown’s aggressive style has helped keep games competitive, though defensive consistency has been a challenge.

On the other side, DePaul enters averaging 76.4 points per game while allowing 69 points per game, giving the Blue Demons a defensive edge compared to many teams in the middle of the Big East standings. DePaul also averages 17 assists per game, a sign of its balanced offensive approach built on ball movement rather than isolation scoring. Guard CJ Gunn leads the team with 13.8 points per game, while Layden Blocker adds playmaking and defensive pressure in the backcourt. Earlier this season, Georgetown pulled off a win as an underdog in the series, but the script flips in this matchup with DePaul now entering as a slight favorite. If the Blue Demons can control pace and limit Georgetown’s transition scoring, their defensive advantage could be the deciding factor. With both teams capable offensively but DePaul showing stronger defensive numbers, the Blue Demons appear well positioned to reverse the previous result.

Georgetown vs DePaul Prediction: DePaul -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.5

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The Rutgers Scarlet Knights travel to face the Minnesota Golden Gophers in a Big Ten matchup between two teams looking to build late season momentum. Rutgers enters the game averaging 70.1 points per game while allowing 76.4, reflecting a group that has struggled defensively against conference opponents. Offensively, the Scarlet Knights lean heavily on guard Tariq Francis, who leads the team with 16.9 points per game and has delivered multiple high scoring performances this season. Rutgers averages 34.4 rebounds and 11.1 assists per game, but shooting efficiency has been inconsistent at 41% from the field, which has made it difficult for the Scarlet Knights to create separation in close games. Still, Rutgers has shown flashes offensively, including an 85-72 win over Penn State Nittany Lions where Francis scored 22 points, highlighting the team’s ability to generate scoring runs when its backcourt finds rhythm.

Minnesota enters with a slight edge defensively and the advantage of playing at home. The Golden Gophers average 70.6 points per game while allowing 68.9, and they shoot 45% from the field, giving them a modest efficiency advantage over Rutgers. Guard Cade Tyson has been the primary scoring threat for Minnesota, averaging 19.5 points per game, while teammates Langston Reynolds and Isaac Asuma provide additional scoring and playmaking support. Minnesota recently closed the regular season with a 67-66 win over the Northwestern Wildcats, showing its ability to grind out tight games late behind Reynolds’ 21-point performance and efficient interior scoring. With Minnesota holding the stronger defensive profile and playing on its home floor, the Gophers appear well positioned to control the tempo and limit Rutgers’ perimeter rhythm. If Minnesota continues to shoot efficiently and contains Francis’ scoring impact, the Gophers should have a strong opportunity to create separation late.

Rutgers vs Minnesota Prediction: Minnesota -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6

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These teams met twice during the regular season, and TCU took both meetings. The first was in Fort Worth, where the Horned Frogs won in a low-scoring slugfest 68-65, in which both teams shot under 50% from the field and only made 12 combined threes. Oklahoma State actually held a 9-point lead midway through the 2nd half and a 7-point lead with about 3 minutes to play, but they ended the game on a 4-minute scoring drought while giving up 10 unanswered points in the process. In the return game in Stillwater, there was a massive uptick in scoring in the 95-92 OT win for the Horned Frogs. The Pokes shot over 50% from the field and the teams combined for 22 made threes on 15 more attempts than the first meeting, but the Cowboys never led despite that game being played at home and being so close throughout. 

TCU won both meetings by just 3 points, yet the Horned Frogs are laying -4.5 in this matchup at the time of writing, which just goes to show what oddsmakers expect of this bunch in Kansas City on Wednesday. The Frogs have been on a roll of late, boasting an 8-1 SU record since back-to-back losses against Houston and Colorado at the end of January and early February. That run of 8 wins in 9 games includes victories over Iowa State, Texas Tech and Cincinnati, so the Frogs weren’t just beating up on Big 12 bottom feeders over the last month of the season. Sitting top-50 in Haslametrics’ Momentum, the Frogs have played themselves into the field without too much concern, as they’ve outperformed offensive expectations in 3 of their last 4 and defensive expectations in 4 of their last 5.

Oklahoma State wants to attack their opponents through rim dives, shots off the dribble, ball screens and transition. The Pokes are highly efficient in their post-up actions too, but I don’t see the upside in this particular department on Wednesday with Parsa Fallah out for the season and Andrija Vukovic not 100% due to a torn meniscus that he’s been playing through and intends to surgically fix after the season. Those are Oklahoma State’s 2 best post-up players. Vukovic missed Tuesday’s game, and his status for Wednesday is uncertain.

TCU will counter with a defense that is very strong in all the aforementioned areas. Over the last month, the Frogs are top-35 in adjusted defensive efficiency and top-12 in forced turnover rate. They have given up a healthy amount of threes in that time, but Oklahoma State struggles with their perimeter shooting away from home – knocking down just 32% of those attempts. On the other end of the floor, TCU hasn’t been quite as efficient, but the Frogs have the ability to put the ball through the net consistently against bad defenses like Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are outside the top 230 in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last month, and they don’t force many turnovers – which puts a ton of pressure on their offense to pick up the slack. Not to mention, Fallah is their best-graded defender per EvanMiya and one of their best rebounders, which should make scoring around the rim a bit easier for the Frogs, who are strong on the offensive glass as well. I like the Frogs by margin here.

Oklahoma State vs TCU prediction: TCU Horned Frogs -4.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -5. 

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Clemson enters this ACC Tournament matchup with one of the most reliable tournament traits a team can possess: elite defense. The Tigers rank among the best teams nationally in scoring defense, and that defensive consistency has been the foundation of several quality wins throughout the season. Clemson has already proven capable of disrupting high-level offenses, taking down teams such as Louisville, Cincinnati, and SMU by forcing opponents into difficult half-court possessions.

Despite that résumé, the market perception of this matchup is being shaped heavily by the most recent meeting between these teams in February. Wake Forest defeated Clemson by double digits in the aforementioned contest, which naturally pushes bettors toward the Deacons and makes Clemson a slightly overlooked favorite in the rematch. Tournament settings, however, often reward defensive stability. Clemson’s defensive structure allows the Tigers to dictate the physical tone of the game. That defensive edge also creates a strong bounce-back environment following the earlier loss. If the Tigers impose their defensive identity, they are well positioned to turn this matchup into a grind that favors their strengths. In tournament basketball, teams with elite defense often deliver the most dependable performances. Clemson fits that profile perfectly, so I’ll lay the points with the Tigers.

Wake Forest vs Clemson prediction: Clemson -5.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.

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Tonight’s final game takes us to the Big Sky championship, Starch Madness. The game features the Idaho Vandals vs the Montana Grizzlies, the #4 seed vs the #7 seed. This conference tournament has been wild so far, and the title game should be a fun one too. Montana took out top-seeded Portland State late last night. Idaho has bounced #2 Montana State and #3 Eastern Washington on consecutive nights. I like the way Idaho is playing right now, and the win over Eastern Washington was particularly impressive. The Vandals look like a team on a mission right now, and I will take the Vandals to win the Big Sky.

Montana won both regular season matchups, both close games. The statistical profiles of these teams are both similar too, and both KenPom and Torvik rank them close together. Right now though, I think Idaho is playing their best basketball. Last night, the Vandals did it with defense. Tonight, they will need to keep Montana out of the paint, and they will need to make more 3s than they give up. Both these teams excel outside the arc, and that is where they like to play. That is likely where this one will be decided. Give me the hottest team in the conference to punch their ticket.

Idaho vs Montana Prediction: Idaho -2.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Maryland Terrapins topped the Oregon Ducks on Tuesday in a 70-60 victory as the No. 17 seed advanced over the No. 16 seed in rather easy fashion. Maryland cashed as a 3.5-point underdog, keeping its season afloat for at least one more day. The Terrapins match up against the Iowa Hawkeyes, which is a rather favorable matchup for Maryland, even though it looks like a mismatch on paper. Maryland lost 20 games this season, while winning just 12 times. However, arguably one of its best victories of the season came on Feb. 11 in College Park, a 77-70 victory over Iowa as a 10.5-point underdog.

Iowa is the No. 9 seed in the Big Ten, and it needs to go on a deep run in this tourney if it hopes to keep its flickering NCAA Tournament hopes alive. In fact, Iowa might need to win the whole thing. It’s unlikely that Maryland is going to be able to surprise Iowa again, but catching double digits is way too many points. Maryland is 4-1 against the spread in the past 5 games when an underdog of 9.5 or more points since February 8. Iowa has no business laying these kind of points to a team it lost to outright exactly one calendar month ago.

Maryland vs Iowa prediction: Maryland +11.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +10.5.

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The ACC tournament kicks off its second day of action on Wednesday with a fascinating matchup between Pittsburgh and NC State. The Panthers managed to knock off Stanford and keep their season alive on Tuesday after a frantic final possession resulted in a putback layup in the final seconds. Pittsburgh has been playing better basketball of late, but the Panthers are still a considerable underdog in this game, largely based on full-season results. However, it’s not as if NC State has been an inspiring team over the past month. In fact, the Wolfpack have been a sinking stone for quite a while now, having dropped 6 of their last 7 games while failing to cover the spread in all but 1 of those contests. This is not a game I want to attack from a side perspective, so let’s look at the total in what should be a lower-scoring battle than what the market projects.

Given the early start time for this matchup, it wouldn’t shock me if both offenses came out a bit flat and it took a bit for these teams to get their legs under them. After all, we just saw Pittsburgh play a very low scoring game against Stanford on Tuesday in the same time slot. The Panthers offense leaves a lot to be desired, with Pittsburgh currently sitting at 125th in adjusted efficiency (KenPom), while checking in outside the top 200 in both 2-point and 3-point percentage (BartTorvik). On the other side, NC State’s offense has generally been an inconsistent unit over the last month, with the Wolfpack becoming a team that takes a lot of threes and doesn’t get to the foul line at a very high rate. If the outside shots aren’t falling for Will Wade’s team, this game could easily turn into a slog, which is exactly what Pittsburgh (344th in adjusted tempo) wants. Let’s back the under in this Wednesday opener.

Pitt vs NC State prediction: Under 145.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Under 144.5

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The first game on the slate for the Big 12 on Wednesday is the Arizona State Sun Devils vs the Iowa State Cyclones. ASU played on Tuesday and dispatched Baylor with some hot shooting out of the gates. Iowa State will play their first game of the tournament. Their last game was, coincidentally, against this same Arizona State bunch, whom the Cyclones beat 86-65. I anticipate a fairly similar result, so even though the number is large, I am backing Iowa State here at -11.5.

There really wasn’t anything unexpected about the outcome when these teams met a few days ago. Most of the stats were in line with the teams’ statistical profiles. The obvious difference in the game was the turnovers, as the Sun Devils not only turned it over a ton, but also gave up transition points. But Iowa State is a top 5 defensive team in terms of creating turnovers, so that is more or less expected. There is a lot going on with the Sun Devils these days, including reports that the school will move on from coach Hurley when this tournament finishes. I think Iowa State delivers in this spot.

Arizona State vs Iowa State prediction: Iowa State -11.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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As the SEC tournament gets underway, we open with the LSU Tigers vs the Kentucky Wildcats. The last time Kentucky played in the opening round of an SEC tournament was well into the previous century. The Wildcats certainly must feel like they have something to prove this week in Nashville, and I expect them to win a couple games. The last time Kentucky and LSU played, you may recall, required some last second heroics for the Wildcats to win by 1 and complete a large comeback. On Wednesday, I expect the Cats to be much more decisive early en route to a convincing win.

In the first matchup, Kentucky was on the road in Baton Rouge, and they also were not fully healthy. The Wildcats are, of course, anything but dependable, but circumstances are definitely different. Nashville is often overrun with Kentucky fans, and this team certainly has the advantage in terms of talent. I think Kentucky is coming to this tournament with something to prove, and their talent gap and offensive firepower should mean they win the opener by margin.

LSU vs Kentucky prediction: Kentucky -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -9.

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