College Basketball Picks

Thursday’s B1G action takes us to Ann Arbor, where the Michigan Wolverines host the Penn St Nittany Lions. The Wolverines continue to be one of the best teams in the country as they sit atop the conference standings. The Nittany Lions, on the other hand, are at the bottom of the conference standings, just scoring their first win on Sunday, as they narrowly survived Minnesota at home by 2 points. All indications are that this game should be a blowout, and it has a 24-pt spread to match, but these teams played a month ago in State College, where the Wolverines had quite the scare in a 74-72 win. The rematch is unlikely to be that close, but I think the best play here is the game total under 163.5.

Michigan is a wagon. They have a top-10 offense, and their defense is rated #1 by both Torvik and KenPom. They force you into bad three-point looks late in the shot clock, they don’t let you get to the free throw line, you almost can’t score against them in the paint and they rebound well. It is hard to imagine that PSU will have much offensive success at all. Indeed, Penn State shoots the three-ball poorly, doesn’t get to the foul line often, and rebounds badly, too. It is hard to see Penn State exceeding the 72 points they scored in the first meeting, and if they match that total, Michigan would have to blow past 90 to take this game over. To reach this point total, we usually have to have both teams scoring, and I don’t see how Penn State pulls its weight, especially on the road — where they have been bad all season. I’ll take the under.

Penn State vs Michigan Prediction: Under 163.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing; playable to 161.5.

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The line says it all. The Bearcats are playing .500 basketball while the Mountaineers are sitting at 14-8. And yet, the Cats are a mid-range favorite. West Virginia owns the better overall résumé, but this number is really about where the game is played and how each team is affected by geography. West Virginia has won one game on the road this season, and they are 1-3 SU outside of Morgantown in conference play. The Bearcats’ home profile has been steadier: they’ve lost only one game at Fifth Third Arena throughout the season. Home court is key here.

West Virginia’s volatility shows up most on the road and against pace/pressure. The Mountaineers have mixed in a road win at Arizona State with a disastrous 35-point loss at Arizona (88-53). The latter is no black mark by any means since the Wildcats are the best team in the country. The problem is how they lost and did not compete, at all. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has toppled Iowa State (who was flirting with a top-three ranking at one point in the polls), Baylor, and Colorado. And the one loss we brought up? A hard-fought defeat against Houston, who is short-listed among favorites to make a deep run in March. This is a matter of the Mountaineers punching above their weight in a hostile setting and the Bearcats taking full advantage. Lay the points and don’t look back.

West Virginia vs Cincinnati prediction: Cincinnati Bearcats -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.

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This number assumes a level of separation that Ohio State hasn’t consistently created away from home, as the Buckeyes are 3-4 SU outside of Columbus. So they are by no means a lock here. In addition, Maryland is a battle-tested team that has played the 6th-toughest schedule in America according to KenPom. They may appear as the less attractive side at 8-13 SU while the Buckeyes are 14-7 overall, but context is key. Let’s list all of those that assailed the Terps: Purdue, Michigan State (away), Illinois (away), USC (away), UCLA (away), Oregon, Indiana, Virginia (away), Michigan, Iowa (away), Gonzaga, Alabama, and Georgetown. Seven of these losses were against ranked opponents. Only five of their losses were on their own floor. Is Ohio State better than most of the teams that we listed here? No, but because of optics, they are priced like they are a mismatch for Maryland.

There are many flaws that one can point out with the Terps, whether it be the lack of efficiency when they have the ball or subpar defense, but now the onus shifts to Ohio State to prove their upside that in a spot that has not been friendly to them all season long. The Bucks have been favored on the road three times already and only covered once. They even managed to lose outright at Pitt as a 5.5-point favorite. If Ohio State plays down to the level of their opposition, Maryland has a realistic path to staying inside the number and even threaten an upset. It would not be a “shocker” if the Terps pull it off. We’ll take the points in a game that UMD can win outright.

Ohio State vs Maryland prediction: Maryland Terrapins +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.

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The Memphis Tigers enter this matchup looking to spark their offense against UAB. Memphis has dropped three of its last four games, averaging just 73.3 points per game while allowing 76.5 points per game during that stretch, and they’ll need to find a way to slow down this Blazers offense. The Tigers have struggled on the road this season, going just 1-6 away from home, while UAB has been average on its own floor at 6-6. 

Memphis just can’t seem to find its rhythm offensively. Dug McDaniel leads the Tigers with 13.9 points per game this season, but his recent inconsistency has made this offense difficult to trust. He’s also the only Memphis player averaging double figures, and he’s shooting just 40.7% from the floor this year. The Blazers have five players averaging double digits and are scoring 7.7 more points per game than Memphis. Defensively, these teams are fairly even, but the Tigers simply don’t have the offensive firepower to match the Blazers. With Memphis struggling on the road and UAB playing in front of its home crowd, the Blazers should be in a strong position to cover this small spread, making them my best bet of the day. 

Memphis vs UAB prediction: UAB  -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is all about optics more than anything else. Loyola-Chicago comes in with an ugly profile: 6-18 straight up on the season, 7–17 against the spread, and just 1-5 on the road. This program is a long way removed from the national darling that made deep March runs in years past. At this point, the Loyola‑Chicago Ramblers are a public sell almost by default, and that perception matters. Because of it, they’re consistently catching inflated numbers, especially when lined against a team that looks far more respectable on paper.

That’s where Davidson fits the bill. The Davidson Wildcats are 13-9 (11-10 ATS), and a serviceable 7-6 straight up at home. The optics clearly favor the Wildcats, and bettors remember the January meeting where Davidson went into Chicago and won by 15. Seeing Davidson lined at a smaller price here, now at home, is naturally going to draw interest. But that’s the trap. Davidson averages just 72 points per game and can struggle to generate consistent offense. Asking this team to win by margin again—even at home—is a big ask. That’s precisely why the number is shorter than the January result might suggest it should be. With Davidson likely overvalued due to surface-level appeal, this shapes up as a classic overlay. Take advantage of it.

Loyola-Chicago vs Davidson prediction: Loyola-Chicago +10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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