College Basketball Picks

It’s a Mid-American showdown as 9-6 Massachusetts gets ready to take on 8-7 Ohio. The Minutemen are 0-3 in conference play and are coming off a heartbreaking 101-100 overtime loss to Bowling Green, a game where they shot 56.1% from the floor. Offensively, the Minutemen are averaging 80.5 points per game while shooting 46.3% from the floor this season. As for their defense, they’re allowing 73.3 points per game while letting opponents shoot 43.1%.

The Bobcats are coming off a thrilling win against Eastern Michigan when Jackson Paveletzke made a game-winning three to give Ohio a 68-67 win. Offensively, Ohio is averaging 76.7 points per game while shooting 46.4%. Defensively, they’re allowing 75.1 points per game and letting opponents shoot 44.1%. Leonardo Bettiol is coming off his best game of the year for the Minutemen, scoring 32 points, and he’ll need to have another stellar game to keep this one close. The Bobcats have won 7 of their last 8 games and they do a better job at taking care of the ball compared to the Minutemen. However, I think Bettiol and this Minutemen offense should be able to hang around in this matchup, as long as they limit their number of turnovers. Look for this matchup to be a close one as the Minutemen keep this close all the way to the end. 

Massachusetts vs Ohio prediction: UMass +3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Cincinnati Bearcats will travel to Morgantown on Tuesday night for a Big 12 Conference game against the West Virginia Mountaineers. Both teams did not start off the season great and will need a win here to get their first conference win. The Bearcats lost to Houston in their first league game and West Virginia lost to Iowa State. This matchup will be one of many Big 12 games on Tuesday night and I am expecting it to be a “grind it out” defensive showdown. The total is currently set for 132 points and the under is my best bet of the game.

I like the under in this game because Cincinnati has one of the worst offenses in high major basketball and West Virginia likes to slow the game down. The Bearcats offense is ranked just 183rd in points per game and scored just 60 points in their last game. According to KenPom, their offense is ranked 218th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 222nd in effective field goal percentage and 263rd in 3-point percentage. The Mountaineer’s defense is good enough to make it very difficult for the Mountaineers to score, and I do not see the Mountaineers scoring much either. Cincinnati’s defense is ranked #6 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and the total has gone under in 78.6% of their games this season. West Virginia plays at a very slow pace, so I expect them to try to slow this game down and limit the scoring. Take the under here.

Cincinnati vs West Virginia prediction: Under 132 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 130.

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The Duke Blue Devils and the Louisville Cardinals will meet inside the KFC Yum! Center on Tuesday night for an ACC game. This is one of the most highly anticipated ACC games of the entire season as these two teams should be the at the top of the league standings in March. Duke has lost just one game this season and looks like one of the best teams in the country again this year. Louisville is ranked 12th at KenPom, but is coming off an upset loss to Stanford. Duke is the slightly better team here and I expect the Blue Devils to get a solid road win in this one.

Duke is currently -1 and my best bet for this game is them to cover that. I like Duke to cover here because I do not think Louisville’s defense is not good enough to stop Duke’s powerful offense. The Blue Devils are led by Cameron Boozer, who is the current favorite to win the National Player of the Year, and he should have his way against a Louisville defense that is ranked 44th at KenPom. The Cardinals will be without star freshman Mikel Brown Jr. again tomorrow, so I do not see them having enough firepower to beat this elite Duke team. Take Duke to cover this short number.

Duke vs Louisville prediction: Duke -1 available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.

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St. John’s is coming off an embarrassing shooting performance against Providence, hitting just 28.2% from the floor in their 77-71 loss on Saturday. Rick Pitino’s Red Storm will look to bounce back as they get set to take on Butler, who is also coming off a lopsided loss to Villanova. St. John’s hasn’t lived up to the hype after being ranked No.5 in the preseason AP poll, and if they want to get anything going in this matchup, they’ll need Zuby Ejiofor to deliver another huge performance after scoring a season-high 33 points against Providence. 

Offensively, these two teams are fairly even. St. John’s is averaging 85.4 points per game compared to Butler’s 85. Defensively, the Red Storm is allowing 72.9 points per game while Butler is surrendering 74.9. The Bulldogs should be able to grab a few extra rebounds in this matchup, which I think will be the difference maker here. The Bulldogs are 7-2 at home this season, and they have the offensive talent with Michael Ajayi and Finley Bizjack to keep this game close. I’m not convinced that Rick Pitino’s team has what it takes to win another Big East title and given their inconsistencies all year, I’m going to back Butler in this one.

St. John’s vs Butler prediction: Butler +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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TCU enters this Big 12 matchup at 11-3 overall and has built its success on defensive consistency and controlled offense. The Horned Frogs average just under 80 points per game while allowing around 65 points per game, showing an ability to slow opponents and keep games within structure. Offensively, TCU prefers to work inside the arc and play through set actions rather than rely heavily on volume three point shooting, which naturally limits pace. Kansas brings a similar profile into the matchup, sitting at 10-4 overall and allowing roughly 64–65 points per game while scoring around 76 points on the season. The Jayhawks emphasize half court execution, strong rebounding, and defensive pressure, particularly at home, where they’ve consistently controlled tempo and limited clean looks for opposing offenses.

That defensive identity has translated directly to betting results, as Kansas home games are 7-1 to the Under this season, a strong indicator of how games are being played inside Allen Fieldhouse. Conference matchups have only reinforced that trend, with possessions becoming more deliberate and scoring runs harder to sustain. Recent meetings between TCU and Kansas have also leaned toward lower totals, often featuring physical play, extended half court possessions, and stretches where both teams struggle to find rhythm offensively. If Kansas dictates pace and TCU is forced into longer offensive possessions, points should come at a premium.

TCU vs Kansas Prediction: Under 143.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 142

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Tennessee enters this matchup playing balanced, physical basketball on both ends of the floor and has established itself as one of the SEC’s more reliable teams early in the season. The Volunteers sit at 10-4 overall and are ranked inside the AP Top 25, driven by a defense that allows about 65 points per game while controlling the glass at over 40 rebounds per contest. Offensively, Tennessee averages around 83 points per game and is led by Ja’Kobi Gillespie, who contributes roughly 17.5 points and nearly 6 assists per game, giving the Vols a steady creator who can dictate tempo. Tennessee’s ability to defend without fouling and limit second chance opportunities has been especially effective at home, where their physicality tends to wear opponents down over 40 minutes.

Texas comes in at 9-5 overall under first year head coach Sean Miller, relying heavily on offense to stay competitive. The Longhorns average over 86 points per game, but defensive inconsistencies remain an issue as they allow more than 73 points per contest. Dailyn Swain leads Texas with approximately 16 points and 7 rebounds per game, yet the Longhorns have struggled to generate consistent perimeter shooting and to contain disciplined half court offenses. That combination is problematic against a Tennessee team that excels at forcing tough shots and controlling pace. With Tennessee’s defensive pressure, rebounding edge, and home court advantage, this matchup sets up for the Volunteers to gradually create separation rather than rely on a shootout. If Tennessee dictates tempo and limits Texas’s transition opportunities, the Vols are well positioned to pull away late.

Texas vs Tennessee Prediction: Tennessee -10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number

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We have a huge Big 12 clash on Tuesday as the Texas Tech Red Raiders face the Houston Cougars. There are going to be a lot of huge clashes in this conference as loaded as it is. These two teams have a combined 4 losses at this point, and they are two of the more veteran squads in this league. Tech’s JT Toppin may be the best player in the league, while Houston brought back several key pieces from last year to join a couple of star freshmen. This one is must-see tv. I certainly like Houston to win this game at home, but the chances of this game being close all the way are high. I am cautiously taking the points with the Red Raiders at +6.5.

Both squads are great on both ends of the floor. Both rank inside the top 20 offensively by most metrics, and while Houston is near the top of the board defensively every season, the Red Raiders aren’t bad there either. Both play at a slower pace than most, and both take care of the basketball and limit turnovers. Both teams have loaded the schedule with top tier opponents all season too, so there is nothing about the moment that should get to them. Expect a game with slower, deliberate possessions, and it should be tough for either team to find much breathing room. It should be a good day to take the points with the underdog.

Texas Tech vs Houston prediction: Texas Tech +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The San Diego State Aztecs have won seven straight games heading into Tuesday’s game against the Nevada Wolf Pack at the Lawlor Events Center in Reno, Nevada. Both of these teams have been playing pretty good basketball, so this should be an entertaining game in the early Mountain West Conference schedule. San Diego State is coming off a thrilling 110-107 win in overtime over Boise State, and it has won the first three games of the conference slate, although it is just 1-3 ATS in the past four games. This is a team which has been involved in some thrilling, high-scoring games to date, but also some inexplicable low-scoring games with terrible shooting. In other words, San Diego State can be erratic.

For UNR, it has won seven in a row, including the first 3 games in the conference, while going 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in the past 7 outings. The Under is 4-2 in the past 6 games, too, if you’re looking for SGP possibilities. The Wolf Pack have allowed 70 or fewer points in 3 in a row, and 6 of the past 7 games. Venue matters, and the home fans should be able to get UNR over the hump for the win in what should be a hotly-contested game between two teams at the top of the MWC.

San Diego State vs Nevada prediction: Nevada -1.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to -2.

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