College Basketball Picks

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The First Four can have as much drama as the Final Four, and the price in this contest reflects that. Let’s start with how both teams arrived here: via a heater. The Retrievers have won 12 straight dating back to January, when they lost against Vermont. Howard has rattled off eight wins in their own right. The question begs, which team’s stock is higher? That would be UMBC.

Fabled for being the only team ever to orchestrate a 16 vs 1 upset in the first round, the trivia point is something that begets familiarity to the betting market in a spot like this one. The Retrievers have pedigree. Howard? They have been to the Big Dance five times but have never won a game. Based on these talking points alone, who do you think the market likes? UMBC, of course.

However, this is a quality opportunity for the Bison to get out of the First Four and win their first ever tournament game. Both these teams have balance on both sides of the ball, but what is key in a game that is prognosticated to be settled by a basket is how each side handles key possessions. Edge: Howard. The Bison commits less turnovers and moves the ball better overall and as luck would have it, they are among the best in the country in creating turnovers and minimizing assists. In clutch time, that metric is big where every possession counts. Book the Bison.

UMBC vs Howard prediction: Howard ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Texas Longhorns will take on the NC State Wolfpack in a First Four matchup on Tuesday night. It’s somewhat surprising to see Texas in the NCAA Tournament after dropping five of their last six games, but that’s neither here nor there. NC State hasn’t fared much better, also losing five of their last six, so both teams enter this matchup looking to regain momentum. Both teams have plenty of talent, but only one will be moving on to take on the #6 seed BYU in the first round.  

For Texas, the key will be establishing a physical presence inside – crashing the boards and forcing NC State into tough, physical possessions. This Texas team is bigger, stronger, and has a significant rebounding advantage heading into this matchup with Dailyn Swain (7.6 RPG) and Matas Vokietaitis (6.8 RPG). NC State will lean on Ven-Allen Lubin to anchor their rebounding effort, but Texas physicality inside should limit second-chance opportunities for the Wolfpack. Offensively, both teams were nearly identical, with Texas averaging 83.8 points per game and NC State close behind at 83.7. Defensively, the Longhorns struggled this season, allowing 76.8 points per game, but the Wolfpack haven’t been much better, giving up 76.5. This game will likely come down to which team can dominate inside – and that’s where Texas has the clear advantage. With their ability to control the boards and shut down the driving lanes, the Longhorns should be able to take control of this matchup as the game goes on. Texas is also shooting 75.2% from the free-throw line, so if they establish a physical presence in the paint, expect them to get to the line and create separation late in the game. 

Texas vs NC State prediction: Texas -1 (-109) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Teams that score and play with tempo, they are fun to watch. They also get alot of love from the betting market. That’s Prairie View A&M in this situation. The Panthers also have been on a sick heater against the spread. 10 straight covers and an incredulous march through the SWAC to land PVAM in the First Four. Where were the Panthers two weeks ago? Sitting at 11-17 staring down the barrel of a bottom-tier seed in the conference tournament before they did the unthinkable.

That narrative will curry alot of market favor. The market is investing in the story as much as the allure of a fast-paced offensive team that can run it up and down the floor. But this isn’t the SWAC, this is the Big Dance and tempo teams don’t exactly fare well. Enter Lehigh. The Mountain Hawks quietly orchestrated their own uncanny run to the First Four on the heels of solid defense that carried them through the Patriot League Tournament. Unlike the Panthers, the Hawks play slow and let the game come to them. This is exactly the sort of side that A&M doesn’t want to see in a play-in game to make the main bracket. But here we are. The Mountain Hawks will turn this into a grind and a knuckle-dragging rock fight that will throw the Panthers out of rhythm. This is the perfect spot to back Lehigh. Lay the points.

Prairie View A&M vs Lehigh prediction: Lehigh -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

Miami Ohio couldn’t have asked for a better regular season, finishing a perfect 31-0 while leading the MAC in scoring. However, that momentum came to a halt after a quarterfinal exit against UMass in the MAC Tournament. Now, the RedHawks will look to put that behind them and prove their undefeated regular season wasn’t a fluke as they prepare to face SMU in the First Four matchup. The Mustangs didn’t close out the season the way they had hoped, dropping five of their last six games, which includes an opening round loss in the ACC Tournament to Louisville where they lost 62-58. The Cardinals also struggled away from home, going just 5-10 on the road and at neutral sites this season. That said, both teams bring high-powered offenses into this matchup. Miami Ohio averaged 90.7 points per game in conference play, while SMU put up 84.2 in the ACC. 

Miami Ohio does a great job moving the ball and creating open looks, but the level of competition is a concern, as they didn’t face a Quad 1 opponent this season. SMU also plays at a fast pace and can score in bunches, while also bringing a physical presence inside. That interior strength could be a major factor in this matchup, especially after Miami Ohio was dominated in the paint by UMass (54-30) and outrebounded 41-24 in their tournament loss. Even with SMU’s advantage inside, their struggles away from home and their defensive issues can’t be ignored. With Dayton just about an hour from Miami Ohio’s campus, the RedHawks should have plenty of fan support in this matchup. This game sets up to be a fast-paced, high-scoring battle, with SMU looking to control the paint. However, I expect the RedHawks to generate open looks from the perimeter and knock down shots from deep, which should allow them to keep this game close. 

Miami Ohio vs SMU prediction: Miami Ohio +7 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

#9 seed TCU will open the NCAA Tournament against the #8 seed Ohio State in what should be an exciting matchup. The Horned Frogs closed the season strong on both ends of the floor, winning six of their last seven games. Ohio State has also been playing well, winning four of its last five, including a near upset of Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament. Both teams bring plenty of talent, but the edge goes to Ohio State – and here’s why. 

Bruce Thornton is one of the top guards in the country, averaging 20.3 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. He’s a tough matchup for any defense, and he’s not alone. The Buckeyes also feature John Mobley Jr. (15.7 PPG), Devin Royal (13.7 PPG), and 7-foot center Christoph Tilly, who adds 11 points per game. The Horned Frogs have plenty of depth of their own, with four players averaging double digits, and they thrive on forcing turnovers with their defensive pressure. However, Ohio State holds a clear edge in efficiency. The Buckeyes are shooting  49.3% from the floor compared to TCU’s 44.8%, and they’re also more reliable at the free-throw line, hitting 77.5% compared to the Horned Frogs 70.8%, which could be critical late in the game. Defensively, both teams are strong with the Buckeyes holding opponents to 72.8 points per game compared to the Horned Frogs 72.1. While Thornton hasn’t played in an NCAA Tournament game, he has the playmaking ability and discipline to handle the pressure. The Buckeyes have strong perimeter defense and should be able to shut down their 3-point shooting, and also limit TCU’s success in the paint, with Christoph Tilly and Devin Royal protecting the interior and closing off driving lanes. Look for Ohio State to knock down critical free throws late and cover the small spread before advancing to the next round of the NCAA Tournament.  

TCU vs Ohio State prediction: Ohio State -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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After a long and eventful regular season and the beautiful chaos of Championship Week, the best time of year is finally here. March Madness has arrived and with it comes a plethora of games for us to dig into over the course of a couple of action-packed days. One of the first games on Thursday’s slate comes in the East Region between Louisville and South Florida in what should be a battle of teams that mirror each other a bit in certain areas. The Bulls are a side that I’ve enjoyed backing down the stretch and South Florida comes into this contest having won 11 straight games, with most of those victories coming by double digits. Conversely, Louisville is on the opposite end of the spectrum, having dropped 4 of its last 8 games after bowing out in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament. There are some serious warning signs that suggest the Cardinals should be on upset alert, and this is a solid spot to take a shot on USF in a matchup where they should hold some crucial edges.

The Bulls are unlike some of the other popular mid-major picks that you’ll see in many brackets this time of year, and it’s largely due to the fact that their roster is littered with high-major transfers and veteran players who are not new to this sort of high-pressure situation. Bryan Hodgson’s team starts a trio of excellent seniors, including Izaiyah Nelson — the AAC Player of the Year. The Bulls typically employ a 7-man rotation, and 5 of those players are upperclassmen who have played dozens of games at this level. There won’t be an intimidation factor in this game, and given the fact that South Florida has been a top-35 team since February 1 per BartTorvik, the Bulls are certainly trending in a better direction compared to their opponent.

It all starts on defense, with South Florida sitting inside the top 40 in adjusted efficiency and 24th in two-point percentage defense on the year. On offense, the Bulls are a dominant unit in transition in league play, and we saw them use that comfort of playing at a very fast tempo to great advantage during the conference tournament. Furthermore, South Florida should be very competitive in the shot volume battle in this matchup, seeing as its ranked 6th in offensive rebounding percentage on the season, while Louisville sits at 168th over the last 2 months in that same statistic (BartTorvik). On the other side, Louisville has struggled away from home all season long, and the Cardinals’ are also at the mercy of a nagging lower-back injury that has caused Mikel Brown Jr. to miss 10 games this season. If Brown Jr. is unable to play or is limited in this game, the Louisville offense would certainly take a major hit. Even if Brown is a full-go, I like the matchup for South Florida and think the Bulls can spring the upset. With that in mind, I’ll back USF with the points on Thursday.

South Florida vs Louisville prediction: South Florida +6.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to USF +5.5

One of the more intriguing first round matchups on Thursday features the VCU Rams vs the North Carolina Tar Heels. The Rams rolled through the A-10 tournament, and they ended the season on a 6-game winning streak. The Tar Heels come into the tournament vulnerable, with star freshman Caleb Wilson out for the year. If you are shopping for an upset for your bracket, this would be a good spot to look. For bettors, there is still value here too, and I look for VCU to keep this game close at +2.5.

The Heels obviously still have lots of talent without Wilson, no doubt about that. Seth Trimble especially will step up and carry the load. But there is more here. In particular, this is a dangerous matchup for Carolina. VCU is an elite 3-point shooting team, and when they aren’t shooting threes, they are good at getting themselves to the foul line. While UNC does not foul a lot, they do struggle to defend the arc. If there is one tried and true formula for a first round upset, that is it—the ability for underdogs to make 3s. It is also worth noting that VCU beat Virginia Tech by 18 and nearly upended NC State, so they can go toe to toe with ACC squads. And those games were in November; the Rams have only improved since then. I like VCU in this spot.

VCU vs North Carolina: VCU +2.5 (-115) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Idaho Vandals and the Houston Cougars will face off on Thursday for round one of the NCAA Tournament. This game is a late tip off in Oklahoma City following the Troy and Nebraska game. I do not expect this one to be a very close one as Houston should be able to handle Idaho with not many issues. The Vandals finished the regular season just 17-14 but went on a four-game winning streak to win the Big Sky Conference Tournament. The Big Sky has not fared well in the big dance as they are just 3-10-1 against the spread since 2010. I expect Houston to add to that bad record and cover the spread here.

Houston -23.5 is my best bet of the game because I do not see Idaho having any success against Houston’s high-level defense. The Cougars have an elite defense every year under Kelvin Sampson, and this year is no different. According to KenPom, Houston’s defense is ranked #5 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, #17 in effective field goal percentage and #10 in two-point percentage. The Vandals offense is ranked just #176 in adjusted offensive efficiency, so I expect them to struggle to score. They shoot a bunch of threes but only shoot 34.5 percentage from beyond the arc and will likely not be able to score much inside here. Take Houston to cover.

*Houston -23.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at -25*