College Basketball Picks

Pittsburgh enters the ACC Tournament as the lower seed with the worse record compared to Stanford, Stanford finished the regular season 20–11 (9–9 ACC) while Pitt limped in at 12–19 (5–13 ACC). But the matchup is more competitive than the surface narrative suggests. That’s why the point spread appears a bit soft with the Cardinal priced as a five-point favorite.

Tournament basketball often compresses gaps because style and urgency become more important than season records. Pitt’s offense has quietly been more efficient lately, and the Panthers have shown the ability to compete when they control the tempo and emphasize physical play in the half court. When Pitt limits turnovers and forces opponents into longer possessions, the game becomes much more manageable for them. This is key given the emotional intangibles in play for the Cardinal. Stanford enters the tournament on the bubble, needing wins to strengthen its résumé. The market is investing in that storyline but it also could inadvertently tighten up Stanford who have something to lose. Pitt, meanwhile, has nothing to protect. Unless, they win the ACC somehow, they go home. Every win extends their season and in tournament environments, teams playing freely often outperform expectations. We’ll take the upset. Panthers move on.

Pitt vs Stanford prediction: Pitt +175 (ML) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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The Big 12 Tournament begins on Tuesday in Kansas City with a 4-pack of games between those at the bottom of the conference standings. Among them will be a #9 vs #16 battle between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the Utah Utes. Winners in 6 of their last 8 games, including victories over Kansas and BYU, the Bearcats have been one of the hotter teams in the country of late. Their calling card is their tenacious defense, which sits 8th nationally in adjusted efficiency over the course of the entire season (BartTorvik), but their offense has woken up in a major way of late, sitting 24th in efficiency over the last month while knocking down 43% of premier shots. 

Utah’s season has been forgettable to say the least. The Utes are just 10-21 this season and 2-16 in the Big 12, with their only wins being over TCU at home and West Virginia on the road. They played the Bearcats once this season – on the road – and were actually competitive thanks to 16 offensive rebounds and 9 made threes. However, I consider the former an anomaly, as the Utes are 223rd nationally and 14th in conference in offensive rebounding rate, while Cincinnati is top-40 nationally in offensive rebounding rate allowed. Moreover, the Utes only made 38% of two-point attempts in that game. 

Despite a somewhat solid showing in their only regular season meeting, there’s no reason for me to put any faith in Utah in this matchup. They have lost 4 games in a row by 13+, and they don’t do much well aside from limit perimeter shots. I’m not sure how much that’s going to help them against a Cincinnati offense that has been very strong in the mid-range and in post-ups – where Utah is 23rd percentile or worse defensively this season (Hoop-Explorer). 

Utah vs Cincinnati prediction: Cincinnati Bearcats -10.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -11. 

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The narrative surrounding SMU entering the ACC Tournament centers heavily on its bubble status for March Madness. The Mustangs are widely viewed as a team needing wins to secure their tournament position, which naturally draws attention from bettors and analysts alike. They were literally front and center on ESPN on Saturday when Duke hosted UNC. The spotlight however, can inflate perception and price.

Syracuse, by contrast, enters largely off the radar after an atypical Orange season. But tournament settings frequently produce value on teams outside the spotlight. This is the perfect spot for Cuse to descend on a team like SMU that loves offense. The Orange have ranked among the nation’s leaders in shot-blocking and interior defensive activity this season, which allows them to contest shots even when opposing offenses generate penetration. In a neutral-site tournament game, that defensive presence can quickly change momentum. SMU’s offense thrives when it operates with rhythm and spacing. When forced into contested possessions, the Mustangs can struggle to maintain efficiency.

Tournament basketball also tends to amplify defensive intensity. Possessions become more deliberate, and teams that rely heavily on offensive flow sometimes find it difficult to adapt. Because SMU carries the bubble narrative and public attention, Syracuse becomes the overlooked side in the matchup. If the Orange disrupt SMU’s offensive rhythm early, the Mustangs could face a far more difficult path than the market expects. We’ll take the upset here too. Orange outright.

Syracuse vs SMU prediction: Syracuse +165 (ML) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

It’s the Horizon Conference Tournament championship game as #3 seed Detroit Mercy gets ready to take on #1 seed Wright State. Both teams bring a balanced scoring attack into this matchup, with the Titans averaging 77.7 points per game compared to the Raiders 81.2. Defensively, Wright State has the edge, allowing just 73.8 points per ger game compared to Detroit Mercy 77.7. These two teams met twice during the regular season, with Detroit winning one game by three points, and losing the other by just two. 

Both teams have plenty of scoring depth. Orlando Lovejoy leads Detroit Mercy with 15.5 points and 3.6 rebounds per game. The physical guard also has strong court vision and is coming off a 21-point performance against a tough Robert Morris defense. Wright State brings one of the most explosive offenses in the conference, which was evident in their 103-point performance against Northern Kentucky. Michael Cooper leads the way for this Raiders team with 13.7 points per game, and the freshman has been playing exceptionally well in the Horizon Conference Tournament, scoring 25 points in his last game, and 17 against Cleveland State. This will be a great matchup between two talented teams. Detroit Mercy will look to control the pain, rebound aggressively, and force turnovers. The Titans are a physical team inside and have shown they can keep games close against Wright State. Even though Detroit Mercy may not win this matchup, they should be more than capable of keeping it close and push Wright State to the wire.

Detroit Mercy vs Wright State prediction: Detroit Mercy +3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Kansas State Wildcats and the BYU Cougars will meet in Kansas City on Tuesday for round one of the Big 12 Conference Tournament. The Wildcats are the second to last seed in the conference tournament, but they will be playing close to home in Kansas City. It is surprising that BYU is playing on day one of this tournament with all the preseason hype they received but they have trending in the wrong direction lately. I expect BUY to win at least one game in the T-Mobile Center but my best bet of the game is the over.

The over is my best bet of the game because both teams do not play good defense and like to play at a very fast pace offensively. According to KenPom, Kansas State is ranked #17 in average offensive possession length while BYU is ranked #24. It should be a very fast game that should help drive the total over 166. Since February 1^st, BYU is ranked #212 in adjusted defensive efficiency at Bart Torvik and Kansas State is ranked #100. I do not see much defense being played in this one, so take the over.

*Over 166 available at time of publishing. Playable at 167*

The Monmouth Hawks entered the CAA Tournament as a 4-seed, and it took advantage of the fact Campbell upset the top seed UNC Wilmington on Sunday. On Monday, it was Monmouth sending the Camels back to Buies Creek, N.C. with a loss, as the Hawks advanced to the conference final with an automatic bid on the line. The 3-seed Hofstra took advantage of the fact 7-seed Towson showed 2-seed Charleston the door on Sunday, with the Pride taking care of the Tigers on Monday night to advance. Monmouth is hoping that the third time is the charm, as it fell 73-57 at home to Hofstra on Jan. 31 in the most recent meeting.

In fact, Hofstra has won each of the two meetings in the regular season, while splitting against the spread (ATS). The Under has cashed in both meetings, while going 4-0 in the past four in the series. Hofstra has been rolling along against the number, too. While it didn’t cover in an OT win over Towson in the semifinals, it is 4-2 ATS in the past six games, and 8-3 ATS in the past 11 outings since Jan. 31, which was that 16-point win at Monmouth. Hofstra has been on a roll against the number, and it is the play here, as the Pride is going to go dancing.

Hofstra -5 (-115) at time of publishing. Playable to -6.

The Montana Grizzlies are just two games above .500 on the season, but they’d be just 15-15 if not for a pair of regular-season victories over the Portland State Vikings. The Griz won by four points in Portland on Jan. 29, 64-60, as a 4.5-point underdog, while posting a 74-68 victory as a 1.5-point favorite in Missoula in the most recent meeting on Feb. 28. Montana has won five of the past six meetings, too, while going 4-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in the span, while going 6-2-1 ATS across the past nine in the series. The Griz have the pedigree, but this isn’t their best team.

Portland State is looking to get to the Big Sky Final, and it picked up its 20th victory of the season against Idaho State on Sunday, 85-78 as a 5.5-point favorite. However, the Vikings are just 2-3 SU/ATS in the past five games, including that 6-point loss in Missoula in the penultimate game of the regular season. Let’s back the Grizzlies to get the job done, and keep its hopes alive for another trip to the NCAA Tournament. However, if Montana should qualify, it is likely looking at a First Four game and a 16-seed. But, first things first.

Montana ML (+110) at time of publishing. Playable to +105.

The No. 1 seed Merrimack Warriors meet the No. 3 seed Siena Saints at the Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, N.J. on Tuesday night with an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament on the line. Merrimack was the top team in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) all season, winning the regular-season title by two games over Siena. Kevair Kennedy led the conference with 18.5 points per game (PPG), and he and Ernest Shelton (15.9 PPG) are hoping to help Merrimack to the NCAA Touranament for the first time in school history, so expect the best from the Warriors with history on the line.

Siena lost both meetings with Merrimack in the regular season, but the margin of victory was just an average of 5.5 PPG, including an OT win on its home court on Feb. 20 in the most recent meeting. Siena has caught fire late in the season, going 4-1 ATS in the past five games, including covers in both MAAC games. However, the fun comes to an end for the Saints, as the Warriors make history, and get it done by at least two buckets.

Merrimack -3.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to -4.