College Basketball Picks

Teams that score and play with tempo are fun to watch. They also get a lot of love from the betting market. That’s Prairie View A&M in this situation. The Panthers also have been on a sick heater against the spread — 10 straight covers and an incredible march through the SWAC to land PVAM in the First Four. Where were the Panthers 2 weeks ago? Sitting at 11-17 staring down the barrel of a bottom-tier seed in the conference tournament before they did the unthinkable.

That narrative will curry a lot of market favor. The market is investing in the story as much as the allure of a fast-paced offensive team that can run it up and down the floor. But this isn’t the SWAC; this is the Big Dance, and tempo teams don’t exactly fare well. Enter Lehigh. The Mountain Hawks quietly orchestrated their own uncanny run to the First Four on the heels of solid defense that carried them through the Patriot League Tournament. Unlike the Panthers, the Hawks play slow and let the game come to them. This is exactly the sort of side that A&M doesn’t want to see in a play-in game to make the main bracket. But here we are. The Mountain Hawks will turn this into a grind and a knuckle-dragging rock fight that will throw the Panthers out of rhythm. This is the perfect spot to back Lehigh. Let’s lay the points.

Prairie View A&M vs Lehigh prediction: Lehigh -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

Miami Ohio couldn’t have asked for a better regular season, finishing a perfect 31-0 while leading the MAC in scoring. However, that momentum came to a halt after a quarterfinal exit against UMass in the MAC Tournament. Now the RedHawks will look to put that behind them and prove their undefeated regular season wasn’t a fluke as they prepare to face SMU in the First Four matchup. The Mustangs didn’t close out the season the way they had hoped, dropping 5 of their last 6 games — which includes an opening-round loss in the ACC Tournament to Louisville 62-58. The Mustangs also struggled away from home, going just 5-10 on the road and at neutral sites this season. That said, both teams bring high-powered offenses into this matchup. Miami Ohio averaged 90.7 points per game in conference play and SMU put up 84.2 in the ACC. 

Miami Ohio does a great job moving the ball and creating open looks, but the level of competition is a concern, as they didn’t face a Quad 1 opponent this season. SMU also plays at a fast pace and can score in bunches while also bringing a physical presence inside. That interior strength could be a major factor in this matchup, especially after Miami Ohio was dominated in the paint by UMass (54-30) and out-rebounded 41 to 24 in their tournament loss. Even with SMU’s advantage inside, its struggles away from home and its defensive issues can’t be ignored. With Dayton just about an hour from Miami Ohio’s campus, the RedHawks should have plenty of fan support in this matchup. This game sets up to be a fast-paced, high-scoring battle, with SMU looking to control the paint. However, I expect the RedHawks to generate open looks from the perimeter and knock down shots from deep, which should allow them to keep this game close. 

Miami Ohio vs SMU prediction: Miami Ohio +7 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

#9 seed TCU will open the NCAA Tournament against the #8 seed Ohio State in what should be an exciting matchup. The Horned Frogs closed the season strong on both ends of the floor, winning 6 of their last 7 games. Ohio State has also been playing well, winning 4 of its last 5 — including a near-upset of Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament. Both teams bring plenty of talent, but the edge goes to Ohio State. 

Bruce Thornton is one of the top guards in the country, averaging 20.3 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. He’s a tough matchup for any defense, and he’s not alone. The Buckeyes also feature John Mobley Jr. (15.7 ppg), Devin Royal (13.7 ppg) and 7-foot center Christoph Tilly (11 ppg). The Horned Frogs have plenty of depth of their own, with 4 players averaging double-digits — and they thrive on forcing turnovers with their defensive pressure. However, Ohio State holds a clear edge in efficiency. The Buckeyes are shooting  49.3% from the floor compared to TCU’s 44.8%, and they are also more reliable at the free-throw line (77.5% compared to the Horned Frogs 70.8%, which could be critical late in the game). Defensively, both teams are strong. The Buckeyes are holding opponents to 72.8 points per game compared to the Horned Frogs’ 72.1. While Thornton hasn’t played in an NCAA Tournament game, he has the playmaking ability and discipline to handle the pressure. Ohio State boasts a strong perimeter defense and should be able to shut down TCU’s 3-point shooting and also limit success in the paint, with Christoph Tilly and Devin Royal protecting the interior and closing off driving lanes. Look for Ohio State to knock down critical free-throws late and cover the small spread before advancing to the next round of the NCAA Tournament.  

TCU vs Ohio State prediction: Ohio State -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Blue Devils are a commodity. The Saints? Not so much. Duke is a top seed in the bracket and one of the game’s titans. Siena? They snuck into March Madness by taking down Merrimack in the MAAC Championship to earn a #16 seed. Point out where Duke is on the map, and most fingers will land in Durham, North Carolina. Siena? Some may think that they are some small college from the West Coast. They are actually from Poughkeepsie, New York.

The point that I am trying to make is that Duke almost certainly commands a premium to back them here and as a result, they are undoubtedly overvalued. Yes, the Blue Devils will win and advance. But by this margin? That’s a mystery. Let’s not forget who the Saints are. A team looking to do the unthinkable, the biggest game in their university’s history. This is a scenario where even if Duke goes up big, the Saints are going to empty the tanks which makes them a tough fade at this price. Gerry McNamara has turned this program around in a short period of time and in case any forget who Siena’s skipper is, he was the man that led Syracuse on a crazy run 20 years ago in this very tournament.  We are not saying an upset is on the horizon, but against a motivated underdog, an overlay is certainly likely.

Siena vs Duke prediction: Siena +28 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Tom Izzo and Sparty go together with March Madness like peanut butter and jelly. You will hear the rhetoric and hyperbole all tournament long: Michigan State is a Final Four contender because of their pedigree and their coaching. That’s true, but as is the case with teams like the Spartans, you pay to play when you back them. That is assuredly the case here.

Michigan State is a good team. North Dakota State? They won the Summit League. That’s not going to move the needle. Situationally speaking, this is not a good look for the Bison to win. We are talking about a top-25 scoring offense against a top-25 scoring defense. In March, the latter means more. But the question isn’t whether the Spartans are on upset alert or not, it’s whether they can cover. That’s a more trying debate. Even if Sparty rolls NDSU, there is backdoor potential at the minimum laying this number. MSU can be cruising late and a few baskets in the final frames can take a 20-plus point lead to where the Bison sneak in under the number. Bottom line, don’t lay this kind of wood. You are paying to do so and the price almost certainly is too expensive.

North Dakota State vs Michigan State prediction: North Dakota State +16.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

One of the more intriguing first round matchups on Thursday features the VCU Rams vs the North Carolina Tar Heels. The Rams rolled through the A-10 tournament, and they ended the season on a 6-game winning streak. The Tar Heels come into the tournament vulnerable, with star freshman Caleb Wilson out for the year. If you are shopping for an upset for your bracket, this would be a good spot to look. For bettors, there is still value here too, and I look for VCU to keep this game close at +2.5.

The Heels obviously still have lots of talent without Wilson, no doubt about that. Seth Trimble especially will step up and carry the load. But there is more here. In particular, this is a dangerous matchup for Carolina. VCU is an elite 3-point shooting team, and when they aren’t shooting threes, they are good at getting themselves to the foul line. While UNC does not foul a lot, they do struggle to defend the arc. If there is one tried and true formula for a first round upset, that is it—the ability for underdogs to make 3s. It is also worth noting that VCU beat Virginia Tech by 18 and nearly upended NC State, so they can go toe to toe with ACC squads. And those games were in November; the Rams have only improved since then. I like VCU in this spot.

VCU vs North Carolina prediction: VCU +2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

It’s not every day I would recommend taking this long swim back. In fact, I would normally be making a case for the underdog as this kind of a price. At first glance, laying 31 points in an NCAA Tournament game feels excessive. But this particular matchup justifies the number when you look closely at the gap between these two programs.

Michigan enters the tournament as a #1 seed with a 31–3 record and one of the most complete statistical profiles in the country, pairing an elite defense with a top-10 offense. Those two traits are what separate dominant tournament teams from simply good ones: they can win games both by suppressing opponents and by scoring efficiently themselves. Howard, meanwhile, earned its tournament spot by winning the MEAC and then defeating UMBC 86–83 in the First Four. While that win was historic for the program, it also exposed the defensive ceiling the Bison bring into this matchup. If UMBC can push them into the 80-point range, it raises the obvious question: what happens against a Michigan offense that ranks among the nation’s best?

Ultimately, big spreads in the NCAA Tournament require one thing: a favorite capable of maintaining pressure for 40 minutes. Michigan has already won seven games by 40+ points this season and such accolades were achieved against much better opposition (Gonzaga, we are looking at you). Against an overmatched opponent that struggles defensively and lacks size, the Wolverines have the offensive firepower and defensive discipline to turn this into a runaway. A spread of this nature still requires execution, but Michigan has already shown it can create that type of separation. The Maize and Blue get it done.

Howard vs Michigan prediction: Michigan -31 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

This matchup is being framed through narrative more than reality, and that’s where the value begins to emerge with BYU. Texas carries significant brand appeal as an SEC program and routinely receives national attention because of their profile. When the Longhorns leveled up with a First Four win over against a competent NC State team, the perception quickly shifted toward Texas becoming a trendy upset pick in the first round. That momentum has quietly pushed the market toward the Longhorns and placed BYU in a buy-low situation. The Cougars closed the regular season unevenly, which has created doubt about their form entering the tournament. But the market has forgotten how capable BYU is against elite opposition. Texas by the way, is not elite.

For those that have forgotten, Brigham Young has already battled UConn and Arizona and pushed both programs deep into competitive games. Those matchups showed that the Cougars can operate at a high level against elite opponents even when the results didn’t ultimately fall their way. However, anyone that watched those games saw that this BYU team could not only hang with the best, but perhaps could have won said contests too. The Cougars may be on “upset alert”, but that’s a trendy take. BYU’s ability to score efficiently and compete physically gives them the more stable profile in any match-up. Against a Texas team that literally snuck in on the bubble, all we need BYU to do is be the better side and win the game essentially. That’s a steal.

Texas vs BYU prediction: BYU -1.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.

One of the harder games on the slate is Thursday evening’s South regional matchup between the Texas A&M Aggies and the St. Mary’s Gaels. The game will be played in Oklahoma City, which is a definite advantage for the Aggies, but the matchup itself favors the Gaels. We also have a serious conflict of styles, as the Aggies are a go-fast team, while St. Mary’s has consistently been among the most deliberate teams in the nation for several years now. Whoever controls the pace probably controls this game. Typically, the slow team grinds down the game and frustrates the fast team, and that is what I am looking for here. Give me St. Mary’s -3.

Bucky Ball worked for a little while in College Station, but as the Aggies slumped down the stretch, it was an indication that teams were figuring out how to counter their style of play. The problem for the Aggies in this matchup is that the things they do well are also things that St. Mary’s is good at stopping. The Aggies want to take a ton of 3s; the Gaels are top 40 in the country at defending the arc. The Aggies want to go fast, but the Gaels control the pace. The Aggies attack the rim, but the Gaels protect the rim at an elite level. They also clean up as many rebounds as anyone in the country. I think this is a favorable spot for St. Mary’s, and I think the slumping Aggies are in trouble here. It is hard to take a slow-paced team to win by much of a margin though.

Texas A&M vs St. Mary’s prediction: St. Mary’s -3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The #3 seed Illinois will take on #14 seed Penn in the first round of this NCAA Tournament, and while this South Region is filled with potential upset candidates, this matchup shouldn’t be one of them. Illinois enters as the clear favorite and should be in control from the opening tip. The Fighting Illini bring a major advantage in both size and depth, which will be difficult for Penn to handle for a full 40 minutes. A key player to watch is David Mirkovic, who presents a tough matchup with his versatility. He’s averaging 13.4 points and 7.8 rebounds per game, and his ability to stretch the floor makes him even more dangerous. Mirkovic is shooting 37.1% from beyond the arc this season, meaning Penn won’t be able to simply pack the paint to slow him down. 

Penn is coming off an impressive overtime win against Yale in the Ivy League Championship, and while that momentum gives them confidence heading into the NCAA Tournament, this is a much tougher matchup against Illinois. On the season, the Quakers are averaging 76.1 points per game while allowing 73.3, and they’ve also struggled from the free-throw line, converting just 69.3%. TJ Power is coming off a massive performance against Yale, pouring in 44 points, but it’s to envision a repeat against a Fighting Illini defense that’s allowing just 69.8 points per game. Penn is 0-2 against Quad 1 opponents, and 1-4 against Quad 2 teams this year. Illinois has the size, length, and defensive discipline to make scoring much more difficult, especially for a Penn team stepping up in competition. Freshman Keaton Wagler will be tough for Penn to defend as he can beat you inside or from deep. When Penn faced Villanova, they lost by 27 points, and we can expect a similar outcome in this matchup. Look for Illinois to come out firing in the first round and not letting up as the game goes on, making it a long day for Penn. 

Penn vs Illinois prediction: Illinois -24.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Idaho Vandals and the Houston Cougars will face off on Thursday for round one of the NCAA Tournament. This game is a late tip off in Oklahoma City following the Saint Mary’s and Texas A&M game. I do not expect this one to be a very close one as Houston should be able to handle Idaho with not many issues. The Vandals finished the regular season just 17-14 but went on a four-game winning streak to win the Big Sky Conference Tournament. The Big Sky has not fared well in the big dance as they are just 3-10-1 against the spread since 2010. I expect Houston to add to that bad record and cover the spread here.

Houston -23.5 is my best bet of the game because I do not see Idaho having any success against Houston’s high-level defense. The Cougars have an elite defense every year under Kelvin Sampson, and this year is no different. According to KenPom, Houston’s defense is ranked #5 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, #17 in effective field goal percentage and #10 in two-point percentage. The Vandals offense is ranked just #176 in adjusted offensive efficiency, so I expect them to struggle to score. They shoot a bunch of threes but only shoot 34.5 percentage from beyond the arc and will likely not be able to score much inside here. Take Houston to cover.

Idaho vs Houston prediction: Houston -23.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -25.

After a long and eventful regular season and the chaos of Championship Week, the best time of year is finally here. March Madness has arrived, and with it comes a plethora of games for us to dig into over the course of a couple of action-packed days. The opening game on Friday’s slate features an intriguing matchup between the Santa Clara Broncos and Kentucky Wildcats in a battle between a couple of teams that are trending in opposite directions. While Kentucky is likely to be a popular choice in this game, there is certainly an opportunity for the WCC finalists to compete in this game, and potentially win outright against an overvalued SEC opponent.

Santa Clara is a team that I’ve been high on all season long, and the Broncos not only showed their prowess in WCC play, but they also played really well in the non-conference portion of the schedule. In fact, Herb Sendek’s team knocked off the likes of Minnesota, Xavier, Nevada and McNeese State, while losing to St. Louis by just 1 point in a neutral site game. The Broncos consistently played up to their competition level this season, and if they had managed to upset St. Louis or Arizona State (a game they lost by just 3 points), they likely would be sitting on the #9 seed line, instead of a bubble team on the #10 seed line. Santa Clara boasts one of the best offenses at the mid-major level, with the Broncos ranking inside the top 15 in adjusted efficiency and top 40 in 2-point percentage (BartTorvik). This is a team that also generates offensive rebounds at an elite level (ranked 19th nationally) and should be able to thrive against a Kentucky defense that is outside the top 150 in rebounding rate and is an abysmal 233rd in free-throw rate allowed on the season.

On the other side, it’s fair to expect the Wildcats to have the majority of the crown for this one, seeing as the game is being played in St. Louis. However, this still doesn’t profile as a good matchup for Mark Pope’s team. For starters, Santa Clara’s pressure defense should be able to force the Kentucky offense into some turnovers, which is an issue the Wildcats have struggled with all season. If the pace of this game starts to increase, that also favors a Santa Clara team that likes to get out and run in order to generate early offense. I do have some concerns with the Broncos’ high foul rate, and Kentucky should be able to generate success against the Santa Clara interior defense. However, the Broncos do a pretty decent job of defending the 3-point line, and Kentucky has not shot the ball well from beyond the arc this season (167th in 3-point percentage). In a game that should come down to the final minutes, I’ll side with the underdog Broncos catching over a possession.

Santa Clara vs Kentucky prediction: Santa Clara +3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3. 

After a long and eventful regular season and the beautiful chaos of Championship Week, the best time of year is finally here. March Madness has arrived and with it comes a plethora of games for us to dig into over the course of a couple of action-packed days. One of the first games on Friday’s slate features a team that profiles as a March sleeper in the Akron Zips, and there is an opportunity for the champions of the MAC to make a splash against a Big 12 opponent.

Akron has been in this spot before, as this is the third straight year that John Groce’s side has made the Big Dance, and they should be able to learn from their previous experiences in this setting. Led by Tavari Johnson and Shammah Scott in the backcourt, the Zips have veteran leaders all over the floor and an offense that has the capability to do major damage both from the perimeter and in the paint. Akron boasts one of the most efficient mid-major offenses inside of 15 feet, and the Zips can also knock down outside shots at nearly a 40% clip. Furthermore, Akron should be able to create second-chance opportunities with its prowess on the glass, while Texas Tech has taken a massive hit in the rebounding department over the last month (288th in defensive rebounding rate). On the other side, it’s also worth mentioning that while Texas Tech has played admirably without the services of JT Toppin (out for the season with a torn ACL), the Red Raiders have now become incredibly reliant on their backcourt play and outside shooters. To their credit, Grant McCasland’s team has shot the lights out from beyond the arc in recent weeks, but that just signals to me that regression is certainly coming due for a team that is top 10 in both 3-point rate and 3-point percentage over the last month. If Texas Tech has a less-than-stellar day from deep, that creates a real opportunity for Akron to keep things very close and potentially spring the upset. 

Akron vs Texas Tech prediction: Akron +8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.5.

#15 seed Tennessee State Tigers will get ready to take on the #2 seed Iowa State Cyclones on the second day of first-round matchups. Tennessee State comes out of the Ohio Valley Conference, where they dominated Morehead State in the championship game, shooting 49.3% from the floor. The Tigers have three players averaging double figures this season, led by Aaron Nkrumah with 17.6 points per game, and with Travis Harper II right behind him at 17.3. This backcourt is talented and capable of creating offense, but this matchup represents a major jump in competition. Earlier in the season, Tennessee State faced Tennessee and suffered a 29-point loss – something that could foreshadow what’s ahead here.  

On the other side, Iowa State has been one of the more dynamic offensive teams in the country. According to KenPom, they rank 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency, scoring 123.8 points per 100 possessions. Milan Momcilovic leads the Cyclones with 17.1 points per game and presents a matchup nightmare – he can score at the rim and stretch defenses, shooting an impressive 49.6% from beyond the arc. Defensively, Tennessee State has struggled, ranking near the bottom of their conference while allowing 73.3 points per game and opponents to shoot 44.4% from the field. Iowa State holds opponents to just 65.1 points per game on 42.6% shooting. The Cyclones also thrive on defensive pressure, forcing opponents into 15.3 turnovers per game. 

While Tennessee State does a solid job protecting the basketball, handling Iowa State’s aggressive defense will be a major challenge. In the end, the Cyclones simply have too much talent on both ends of the floor. While Tennessee State may have the slight rebounding advantage, I don’t expect that to make a big impact in this matchup. Look for Iowa State to control this game from start to finish and roll comfortably into the next round of the NCAA Tournament. 

Tennessee State vs Iowa State prediction: Iowa State -24.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Friday’s Midwest regional in Tampa gives us the #4 Alabama Crimson Tide vs the #13 Hofstra Pride. Alabama made headlines this week as the team’s second leading scorer was arrested on drug charges and is likely to miss the tournament as a result. That has people sniffing around at this game for an upset. Hofstra closed the season hot, winning their final 7 games on the way to the Colonial title. I don’t know that I want to risk that upset pick, or maybe even the spread, but I do like this game total to stay under 159.5.

Anytime Alabama is involved, there is a threat the score goes to the moon. They play faster than anyone, and they take the first good shot they see. Hofstra is the opposite. They sit outside the top 300 in terms of tempo. They are, however, excellent beyond the arc, and that is the characteristic that is almost always present with the upset-seekers. So why the under? Alabama is missing a key scorer, and Hofstra likes to play slow. Hofstra can’t win a track meet. If they can protect the ball and shorten the number of possessions enough to stay in it early, it will almost certainly be a low-scoring game. And if they can’t compete? They will probably get blown out altogether. This should be an under.

Hofstra vs Alabama prediction: Under 159.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 155.5.

Friday’s West regional action from San Diego includes the Utah State Aggies vs the Villanova Wildcats in an 8-vs-9 matchup. This matchup is intriguing because the teams are similar, and both have quietly put together outstanding seasons that most have not noticed. Villanova pretty well handled everyone not named UConn and St. John’s. Utah St smoothly ran through the Mountain West with just a couple of hiccups here or there. Honestly, I think Utah State is under-seeded, and I think they are just better, so I am taking the Aggies to cover -1.5.

Utah State is hyper efficient. They don’t turn the ball over, they don’t shoot a lot of threes, and they aren’t particularly flashy. What they do, however, is get into the paint and score. A lot. They have the 11th-best 2-pt% in the nation, which also leads the way to the 14th-best effective FG%. They are just smooth and efficient. Nova isn’t bad, but they don’t do a lot of outstanding things. They will likely need to get hot from outside to beat the Aggies, and I don’t like that they are playing on the other side of the country. A lot lines up will for the Aggies here.

Utah State vs Villanova prediction: Utah State -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Friday’s West regional action from San Diego includes the Utah State Aggies vs the Villanova Wildcats in an 8-vs-9 matchup. This matchup is intriguing because the teams are similar, and both have quietly put together outstanding seasons that most have not noticed. Villanova pretty well handled everyone not named UConn and St. John’s. Utah St smoothly ran through the Mountain West with just a couple of hiccups here or there. Honestly, I think Utah State is under-seeded, and I think they are just better, so I am taking the Aggies to cover -1.5.

Utah State is hyper efficient. They don’t turn the ball over, they don’t shoot a lot of threes, and they aren’t particularly flashy. What they do, however, is get into the paint and score. A lot. They have the 11th-best 2-pt% in the nation, which also leads the way to the 14th-best effective FG%. They are just smooth and efficient. Nova isn’t bad, but they don’t do a lot of outstanding things. They will likely need to get hot from outside to beat the Aggies, and I don’t like that they are playing on the other side of the country. A lot lines up will for the Aggies here.

Utah State vs Villanova prediction: Utah State -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Iowa Hawkeyes and the Clemson Tigers will meet in Tampa Bay for the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The game will tip off at 6:30pm EST on Friday and should be one of the best games of the day. The eight vs nine matchup is usually a toss-up and the spread indicates that it will be a close finish. The winner of this one will likely play Florida in the round of 32 and have the opportunity to shock the world. Iowa is a short favorite as the nine seed in this one, but my best bet of the game is the under. The total is currently set at 129 points and that is the play here.

I am taking the under in this game because both teams play at a very slow pace and will look to slow the game down as much as possible. According to KenPom, Iowa is ranked #357 in adjusted tempo while Clemson is ranked #333. Neither team is ranked highly in points per game, so I do not expect points to be that many points to be scored. The total has finished under the number in 60 percentage of Clemson’s games this season and I expect that trend to continue here. Take the under.

Iowa vs Clemson prediction: Under 129 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 128.

Stop busting brackets and sign up for the Pickswise March Madness Premium Picks now! Our expert picked Florida at HUGE +4000 odds last year and is up +30.7 units over the last 3 NCAA Tournaments! Get futures picks and daily best bets throughout all of March Madness, all for just $50. Click here to join NOW!

After a long and eventful regular season and the chaos of Championship Week, the best time of year is finally here. March Madness has arrived and with it comes a plethora of games for us to dig into over the course of a couple of action-packed days. For my money, Friday’s slate has some of the most intriguing matchups of the Round of 64, and that includes a game between Northern Iowa and St. John’s from San Diego, California. The Panthers are the champions of the Missouri Valley — a conference that typically acquits itself very well in March — while St. John’s emerged as the champions of a very weak Big East conference. Both teams have played well entering this week, but which side will survive and advance to the weekend?

Northern Iowa has been in this spot before, and this program is no stranger to springing upsets in March. This year’s version of the Panthers is a veteran bunch that is led by its defense, which is ranked 24th nationally in adjusted efficiency per KenPom. While they did have some growing pains earlier in the season, Ben Jacobson’s group has won 10 of its last 13 games dating back to January 31. Not only are the Panthers playing at a top 40 level nationally over the last 6 weeks, but they’ve been able to do that while opponents are still making a higher than average number of threes against them. With that in mind, a bit of positive regression is still in order for what has been an elite perimeter defense this season (3rd in 3-point percentage allowed per BartTorvik). On offense, Northern Iowa is extremely comfortable playing at a deliberate pace, as the Panthers are ranked 364th in adjusted tempo and consistently look to grind out quality shots late in the clock. That bodes well for an underdog in a tournament setting, as teams that shorten the game and put a massive emphasis on each possession generally keep their games close against higher-seeded opponents. A year ago, a Drake team that played at a slow pace was able to knock off Missouri, so there’s certainly precedent for a Missouri Valley team to spring an upset over a power conference opponent by following a similar script.

As for the higher seed, St. John’s has been playing some of its best basketball over the last few weeks, but it’s worth mentioning that most of those performances have come against pretty poor competition in what was a lousy Big East this season. Furthermore, the Red Storm have struggled mightily on offense all season long, with Rick Pitino’s team sitting at 191st in effective field goal percentage, 187th in 2-point percentage and a whopping 214th in 3-point percentage (BartTorvik). That doesn’t bode well against an excellent Panthers defense that is fundamentally sound and won’t commit fouls to bail St. John’s out of bad possessions. If the Red Storm are not able to get out in transition and generate easy buckets, it could be a long day for this extremely inconsistent offense. All things considered, this has all the makings of a defensive struggle, so I’ll grab the points with Northern Iowa now that the Panthers are catching double digits.

Northern Iowa vs St. John’s prediction: Northern Iowa +10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +9.5.

The UCF Knights and the UCLA Bruins will face off on Friday in Philadelphia for the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The game will tip off at 7:25pm EST in Xfinity Mobile Arena before UConn and Furman take the court afterwards. UCLA made it to the Big 10 semifinals last weekend and are playing like we expected in the preseason as of late. They struggled early in the season but have seemed to turn the corner recently, so I am backing them to cover this spread.

UCLA is -5.5 and that is my best bet of the game. I like UCLA to cover against UCF because I believe their offense will be too much for the UCF defense. According to KenPom, the Knights are ranked just #235 nationally in effective field goal percentage and #187 in three-point percentage. The Bruins offense is ranked #16 in three-point percentage and should have success from beyond the arc here. Guard play is important in March and UCLA has three great guards in Donovan Dent, Trent Perry and Skyy Clark. I am backing them to cover here and would not be surprised if they challenge UConn in the round of 32. Take UCLA to over in this one.

*UCLA -5.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at -6*

#2 Purdue draws #15 Queens to open the West regional on Friday. You probably know about Purdue, who is perennially among the best teams in the nation. What about Queens? The Royals are fairly new to Division I, and this is actually their first year of tournament eligibility. They won the ASUN, but they are going to have all sorts of trouble with Purdue. Queens was smoked by every power conference opponent they played this season, and Purdue should do the same. This is a big number, but let’s take it at Purdue -25.5.

The biggest concern here is the Royals’ tragic defense, which ranks outside the top 300 nationally. That’s a problem. The Boilermakers are going to be able to score in just about any way they want, and they will also likely control the rebounding at a 3-1 rate. Queens likes to play fast and shoot a lot, but this is a disaster matchup for them as Purdue just doesn’t allow teams to get into that kind of offensive rhythm. There is no way Purdue takes down Michigan on Sunday and then struggles in the first round, right? Give me the Boilermakers to cover.

Queens vs Purdue prediction: Purdue -25.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.