College Basketball Picks

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The Creighton Bluejays will travel to Indianapolis on Wednesday night for a Big East Conference game against the Butler Bulldogs. This will be the last home game for the Bulldogs before they head to DePaul for their season finale. This is Creighton’s last game of the season before the Big East Tournament, and they will need to win the tourney if they want to make the big dance. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games and I do not see them getting back on track here. Butler has a solid 10-6 record at home, and I expect them to finish off their regular season with a win here at home. As a result, I’ll be backing Butler to cover the 2.5-point spread.

Simply put, the Bulldogs have been playing better basketball than Creighton as of late. Butler is ranked 63rd nationally at Bart Torvik since February 1, compared to Creighton at #82. Butler’s 56th-ranked offense since February 1 should be able to be outscore a Creighton offense that is ranked just 100th nationally. Butler lost by just 4 points on the road at Creighton earlier in this season and I expect them to get revenge in the rematch.

Creighton vs Butler prediction: Butler -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

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Following a 76-70 revenge win on the road over their in-state rivals on Saturday, the Texas Longhorns will travel to Fayetteville to play the Razorbacks on Wednesday night, on what will be Senior Night for Trevon Brazile and Nick Pringle. The win snapped a 2-game losing streak for Texas, which came on the heels of a 5-game win streak and 6 wins in 7 outings. On the other end, the Razorbacks were embarrassed by Florida in Gainesville on Saturday night, 111-77, surrendering 1.37 points per possession while scoring just 0.95 on their own. They ended the month of February at 5-2 SU.

This is a matchup between 2 of the country’s 10 most efficient offenses over the course of the season and the last month, leading to plenty of high-scoring games and overs for both teams. However, Texas has really slowed its pace of play lately, and I fell victim to that on Saturday in their meeting with Texas A&M as I held an over ticket that never had a chance. Arkansas plays with a similar pace to Texas A&M, so I have to imagine Sean Miller’s squad will continue its 10-game trend of playing to just 64 possessions per game (23rd percentile) – down from their season-long numbers just above 66.5 – in an attempt to control the amount of possessions in this game. 

In addition to similar offensive efficiency metrics, neither team is very good defensively and both are outside the top 240 in three-point rate. So, why is Arkansas laying north of 2 possessions in this one? Well, the Razorbacks have been a bet-on team in general at 19-10 ATS this season, but particularly at home and off losses. On the contrary, Texas is 16-12 ATS and boasts a 7-2 ATS record in true road games this year, so for my money, the ATS trends cancel out. 

Where Texas seems to have the edge in this matchup is through their ability to create quality looks, as the Longhorns are elite in their rim attacks against conference opponents, top-15 nationally in offensive rebounding rate and 2nd nationally in free throw rate. Moreover, they like to get Matas Vokiettaitis and Dailyn Swain plenty of paint touches as screen rollers or in post-ups. The Razorbacks aren’t exactly strong defensively in any of these areas, particularly on the defensive glass and in the paint – where they are in the 2nd percentile in second-chance points allowed per game and in the 7th percentile in paint points allowed per game. As a result, I lean to Texas to keep this game closer than the line suggests.

Texas vs Arkansas prediction: Texas +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7. 

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As the season winds down its final week, the Atlantic 10 brings us a “first vs worst” matchup as the Saint Louis Billikens host the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers. The Ramblers just snapped a 4-game losing streak, but they still sit in last place in the A10 standings. The Billikens, on the other hand, sit atop the standings, are undefeated at home, and are sitting just inside the Top 25. The spread in this game is understandably massive, and Saint Louis won the first meeting by 27 just a couple of weeks ago. Rather than play a large spread, though, I prefer the game total under 156.5.

This game is a clash in styles, to say the least. The Billikens play at a breakneck pace, They are also a top-40 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Whatever metric you want to look at, they seem to be way up near the top of it. Loyola, on the other hand, plays at a snail’s pace, and they are hovering around #300 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. I have little doubt that Saint Louis will post a big score here, but it is hard to imagine the Ramblers can do enough to keep pace. This game could get to 90-65 and still not beat us, and that would represent an increase for both teams over the first matchup. If Saint Louis gets up that much, they also won’t be running as much late in the game. I’ll take the Under.

Loyola-Chicago vs Saint Louis prediction: Under 156.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 153.5.

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