College Basketball Picks

A breaking down of X’s and O’s isn’t required here. This is about the emotional intangibles in play. The Hoosiers and the Boilermakers don’t like each other. Their rivalry speaks for itself. However, Purdue is thinking about snagging a top-2 seed in March Madness and trying to somehow stop Michigan from winning the Big Ten. None of that actually affects what happens on the court here and now, but the point is that the market will invest in those notions and overlook the Hoosiers. That makes IU an afterthought, which also means it is likely taking back an inflated number.

Pricing a side in a contest like this one is not solely about who is better. It’s about who is in demand. The Boilermakers are highly in demand in this spot and thus they are overvalued. Are we calling for an upset ouright? No. But given the nature of the rivalry, Indiana can approach this game like its National Championship. This is an opportunity for the Hoosiers to go to West Lafayette and give their arch nemesis some static. Thus, motivation will be at a premium and Indiana is taking back an enhanced number. That’s where the value lies. Rivalry games often defy logic, statistics and narratives. They are one of the treasures of collegiate athletics for that very reason because the unthinkable often occurs. Once again, we don’t need the Hoosiers to win — we just need them to show up. If IU does that, the things it does well (playing stout defense, holding opponents to 41% from the field, and facilitating ball movement efficiently) will keep it in position to be competitive. We have more than enough points in our back pocket should they do that.

Indiana vs Purdue prediction: Indiana +11 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $200 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Indiana vs Purdue predictions.

In the middle of a 2-game losing streak, the Kentucky Wildcats will head to the jungle that is Neville Arena on Saturday night to play the Auburn Tigers. Kentucky’s recent defeats were at the hands of Florida and Georgia, and oddsmakers don’t expect it to be any easier for them on Saturday night given the current market price of +3.5. The line is interesting, as Auburn is in the midst of a 5-game losing streak, most recently dropping their game at Mississippi State on Wednesday 91-85. Prior to that outing, it was an admittedly difficult stretch for the Tigers, as they played Tennessee, Alabama, Vanderbilt and Arkansas consecutively on the heels of playing Florida and Texas. 

I’m expecting points in this game, as this is a battle between two strong offensive teams that are struggling on the defensive end. Over their last 5 games, Kentucky sits in the 91st percentile in offensive rating, while Auburn is in the 84th percentile. On the other end of the floor, the Wildcats are in the 16th percentile in defensive rating over that span, and the Tigers are sitting at the bottom of the country with the likes of Air Force, Oklahoma, Cleveland State and Stetson. 

The combined shot volume in this matchup is conducive for an over. Both teams rely heavily on their transition offense, are strong around the rim and have multiple shooters that convert on more than 35% of their perimeter attempts. Moreover, Kentucky and Auburn are mutually strong on the offensive boards, sitting in the 79th percentile or better in offensive rebounding rate in conference play, while ranking in the 94th percentile or better in second-chance points per game against SEC opponents. This is especially notable considering neither team is strong on the defensive glass, especially of late – where they are in the 22nd percentile or worse over their last 5 games. 

Kentucky’s games have trended toward overs lately, going 4-1 in their last 5 overall and 3-1 in their last 4 road games. Meanwhile, Auburn games have seen 160 or more combined points in 5 of their last 6. Look for a high-scoring game in the Jungle on Saturday night.

Kentucky vs Auburn prediction: Over 156.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 158. 

Now you can bet any of our Kentucky vs Auburn predictions at FanDuel Sportsbook, which has a great new-customer offer to take advantage of. If you sign up for FanDuel right now, you earn a welcome bonus worth up to $100 if your first $5 bet wins! Use this link 🔗 to join FanDuel right now and learn more.

An in-state SEC showdown will take place in Nashville on Saturday when the Tennessee Volunteers make the short journey to Memorial Gymnasium to play the Vanderbilt Commodores. The Vols have found a nice groove, winning 8 of their last 10 after their poor showing at Florida. Meanwhile, the Commodores are still going relatively strong without Franklin Collins and Duke Miles, prevailing in 5 of their last 7. The 2 losses in that span came over the last 4 games and they were both 1-point defeats. Fortunately for Vandy, Miles will return to action on Saturday. That will be a boost for the ‘Dores on both ends of the floor, but will it be enough to beat their rival by margin?

Vanderbilt has been strong on both ends of the floor this year, sitting top-20 nationally and top-6 in the SEC in adjusted efficiency. However, they don’t have the best paint defense, and they aren’t strong on the glass. Both of those issues could be costly against a Tennessee team that is highly productive in the paint and right up there with Florida as the best offensive-rebounding team in the country. The recent form is in line with that assessment; Tennessee is in the 100th percentile in offensive rebounding rate and 93rd percentile on the defensive glass over their last 10 games while Vanderbilt is in the 51st and 7th percentiles over that span, respectively. 

In the paint, the Commodores are in the 5th percentile nationally in paint attempts allowed per game over their last 10, and their opponents are converting on just under 50% of those shots – which is in the 10th percentile. The Vols are equipped to exploit that weakness, sitting in the 82nd percentile in paint attempts playing through freshman star Nate Ament and senior maestro Ja’Kobi Gillespie. With strong advantages on the glass and in the paint, I like the Vols to stay within a possession, if not win the game outright even with Miles back in the lineup.

Tennessee vs Vanderbilt prediction: Tennessee Volunteers +3.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +3.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, we recommend checking out Fanatics Sportsbook. New users can get $100 FanCash bet matches on their first 10 wagers! Join Fanatics Sportsbook, where you can bet on our Tennessee vs Vanderbilt predictions.

The Saint Louis Billikens suffered their second loss of the season on Tuesday when they fell short at Rhode Island 81-76. It was one of their worst offensive performances of the year, scoring just 1.02 points per possession while shooting less than 50% inside the arc and turning the ball over 18 times. Meanwhile, the Rams made 12-of-29 threes and 23-of-27 free-throws in the win. 

SLU will go from one Ram to another on Friday when it returns home to host a revenge-minded VCU team that it beat by 9 in Richmond earlier this year despite a bad offensive showing. The Bills scored only 0.92 points per possession in that one, which grades as their worst offensive performance of the year. That being said, it was in line with their best defensive showing of the year, as the Rams were held to 0.81 points per possession at home — shooting just 31% from two-point range and 25% from beyond the arc. 

VCU has played well on the road this year, but it’s hard to trust the Rams in this spot after they let the Bills escape from Richmond with a 9-point win despite such a horrendous offensive outing. Now, the Rams head to Chaifetz Arena, where SLU is a completely different beast. At 15-0, they are perfect in their building, while boasting the most efficient home offense and 6th-most efficient home defense in the country. That success includes 63% shooting from two-point range and over 42% from beyond the arc, while holding opponents to 43% and 27.8%, respectively. Playing at home against conference opponents, their efficiency numbers are even better, and the betting results reflect that – as the Billikens are 11-4 ATS at home with a +6.1 cover margin. With SLU off a loss and a poor offensive showing in the first meeting, combined with VCU being in the midst of the nation’s eighth-longest active win streak, this line offers a bit of a buy-low spot. I’m going to take the bait given SLU’s dominance at home. For what it’s worth, VCU is 0-4 in Quad 1 games and 1-2 ATS as an underdog.

VCU vs Saint Louis prediction: Billikens -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -8.5. 

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, we recommend checking out Fanatics Sportsbook. New users can get $100 FanCash bet matches on their first 10 wagers! Join Fanatics Sportsbook, where you can bet on our VCU vs SLU predictions.