College Basketball Picks

The #2 seed Purdue Boilermakers will take on the #7 seed Miami Hurricanes in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Purdue was dominant in their win over #15 seed Queens, shooting 63.1% from the floor while controlling the glass 41-19. As for the Hurricanes, they handled business against Missouri, shooting 43.3% and outrebounded the Tigers 46-30. Purdue enters this matchup playing some of their best basketball of the season, coming off a Big Ten Tournament title and an impressive first-round performance. However, they can’t afford to overlook this Hurricanes team that can beat them inside. 

Malik Reneau, Ernest Udeh Jr., and Tre Donaldson have been fantastic for the Hurricanes this season, and they bring plenty of talent that could give Purdue a tough time. According to KenPom, the Hurricanes rank 31st in adjusted offensive efficiency (121.3) and 36 in adjusted defense (100.3). Purdue leads the nation in adjusted offense (131.9) and sits 38th in defense (100.4). The Boilermakers are weak when it comes to defending inside the arc (53.3%) and that’s good news for the Hurricanes as they shot 57.2% from 2-point range this season. However, Purdue is an elite 3-point shooting team and Miami is allowing opponents to shoot 35.4% from beyond the arc. This should be a great matchup, but Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn will be too much for the Hurricanes to handle as Purdue pulls away late. 

Miami vs Purdue prediction: Purdue -7.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Kentucky came into March with the appearance of a team that is more brand name than substance, and depending on how one interpret events of Friday that may be the market’s position here again. That makes them a far less marketable option compared to Iowa State who looks every bit the contender to cut down the nets many regard them as. Thats where we start.

On Friday, ISU cruised past Tennessee State. Big Blue needed theatrics against Santa Clara. In what was one of the wildest finishes in tournament history, Kentucky escaped with an overtime win and covered as a 3.5-point choice despite being placed on upset alert by many before tip-off. The Cats were just seconds away from suffering an early exit until a miracle half-court shot gave them second life. Immediately, many will say that theatrics might work against a WCC team like the Broncos, but not against a stud like the Cyclones. The price however suggests that UK has an honest chance to cause more chaos. And they do have a chance here. Kentucky was big on defense when it needed to be and made the plays it had to when required to get the job done. Thats the DNA of a team that can make a deep run and excel on the big stage contrary to popular opinion. The line suggests that the Cats make more noise and I am taking them to advance.

Kentucky vs Iowa State prediction: Kentucky +175 (ML) available at time of writing. Playable to the number.

After a highly entertaining Saturday slate of March Madness action, we should see more compelling matchups in the Round of 32 on Sunday, including a battle between a couple of storied programs and Hall of Fame coaches — as St. John’s gets set to take on Kansas in the East Region. These teams strongly resemble each other in a myriad of areas, so it’s a bit of a surprise that we’re getting more than one possession with Bill Self and the Jayhawks in this one. The market is clearly down a bit on Kansas, but it’s important to consider that this team was still up by 26 points in the second half on Friday before taking its foot off the gas and allowing Cal Baptist to make the game interesting late. Furthermore, the Jayhawks have a top-1o defense and the best player on the court in Darryn Peterson, who should see success in isolation situations against a St. John’s defense that has not faced a guard of his caliber since the early days of the season.

On the other side, it’s undeniable that St. John’s has been playing at an extremely high level in recent weeks. Rick Pitino’s team has rattled off 7 straight victories heading into this matchup, but the competition has not been the strongest for the Red Storm during this run of form, especially compared to what Kansas has faced. This is still a St. John’s offense that ranks 188th in effective field goal percentage and sits well outside the top 200 in 3-point percentage on the season. Kansas’ defense is also excellent in transition, which is imperative against a Red Storm offense that likes to generate quick buckets early in possessions. Ultimately, it’s hard to see either team getting much separation in this one, so I’ll take the points with the underdog.

St. John’s vs Kansas prediction: Kansas +3.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Kansas +3. 

The #3 seed Virginia Cavaliers take on the #6 seed Tennessee Volunteers on Sunday in Philadelphia in the Midwest Region. The Vols smoked Miami (OH) on Friday to get here, while Virginia beat Wright State. This game projects to be the tightest matchup on the Sunday slate, and these teams profile almost identically. Whatever happens, it is nearly certain that it will be a close game where every basket, every possession, is hotly contested. The Vols open as the favorite, but I like the Cavaliers a bit better. I will take Virginia at +1.5, but I would play the Money Line outright, if we get to that point.

When I say these teams profile similarly, they are near mirror images in terms of metrics. KenPom ranks Tennessee 32 and 13 in offensive and defensive efficiency, and Virginia checks in at 27 and 16. Both teams play slow on offense. Both pressure the ball on defense. Both thrive on the offensive glass (both in the top 10 there). We are really splitting hairs to find any advantages here, but I will point to two possibilities for the Hoos. First, UVA excels at defending inside the arc, and Tennessee isn’t really a 3-pt shooting team. Second, I am still not convinced that Nate Ament is fully healthy for the Vols. He is out there gutting it out, but he doesn’t look comfortable. I think Virginia might escape with this game.

Tennessee vs Virginia Prediction: Virginia +1.5 (-115) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The #9 seeded Utah State Aggies take on the top-seeded Arizona Wildcats in the West Regional. The Wildcats cruised past LIU on Friday, as expected, while the Aggies had to win a dogfight with Villanova. The Aggies pulled away late, but the game was back and forth for all but the final few minutes. Utah State is a good basketball team, but they are just outmatched here. The #1 seeds are #1 seeds for a reason, and we can expect Arizona to win by margin. Let’s take Arizona -12.

Utah State is a well-balanced team. They do everything well and nothing poorly. I have no real criticism for them. The issue in this game is that Arizona is just too good. The Aggies have no obvious advantages in the matchup, nothing that they can try to exploit to pull the upset. Arizona is more athletic and more talented at every position, and this is the time of year where talent wins. We shouldn’t really expect any of the 9 seeds to take out the 1 seeds, but we also shouldn’t really expect many of them to stay close either. Take the Wildcats.

Utah State vs Arizona Prediction: Arizona -12 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -14.5.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders and Alabama Crimson Tide meet in the Round of 32 in a matchup that contrasts elite pace with offensive efficiency. Alabama enters as the highest scoring team in the country at 91.7 points per game, thriving in transition and relying heavily on tempo to create scoring opportunities. In their opening round win, the Crimson Tide put up 90 points, with Labaron Philon Jr. leading the way with 29 points while the team controlled the glass with 46 rebounds. Alabama’s ability to push pace and generate second chance opportunities makes them difficult to contain, but defensive inconsistency remains a concern, as they allow around 70.1 points per game and have struggled at times to get stops against efficient offenses.

Texas Tech counters with a more controlled and efficient offensive approach, averaging 80.7 points per game while ranking among the nation’s best three point shooting teams at 39.3%, knocking down 11.5 threes per game. In their first round win, the Red Raiders shot 64.2% from the field, with Jaylen Petty scoring 24 points and multiple players contributing offensively. Point guard Christian Anderson drives the offense with 7.7 assists per game, helping create high-quality looks in the half court. While Texas Tech allows 72.6 points per game, their ability to control tempo and execute efficiently could be key against Alabama’s fast paced style. If the Red Raiders limit transition opportunities and capitalize from beyond the arc, they can dictate the flow of the game and neutralize Alabama’s biggest strength. With Alabama’s defensive inconsistency and Texas Tech’s balanced offensive attack, this sets up as a competitive matchup where execution and tempo control could ultimately favor the Red Raiders.

Texas Tech vs Alabama Prediction: Texas Tech -1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2