College Basketball Picks

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It’s championship Monday in the Southern Conference, as the Furman Paladins and East Tennessee State Buccaneers square off for a conference title and an automatic bid for the NCAA Tournament. Both teams fought an uphill battle in the semifinals to get here, trailing by double digits early in the second half. However, both pieced together massive scoring runs to not only reclaim the lead, but win outright. ETSU’s 2-point victory was also their largest lead of the game, and the same thing can be said for Furman – whose 6-point margin of victory was also their largest lead of the game. The Paladins and Bucs collectively outscored their opponents 99-66 in the second half in Sunday’s semifinals. 

Furman and ETSU met twice during the regular season, and the Bucs prevailed both times. The first meeting was in Johnson City, where ETSU needed overtime to prevail at home 75-71. Asa Thomas, Furman’s best shooter, missed that contest. In the second game in Greenville, the Bucs were the ones without a starter  — Blake Barkley — yet they still emerged with a 78-69 victory thanks to a massive perimeter shooting discrepancy. ETSU knocked down 50% of its 24 3-point attempts, while Furman connected on just 18% of its33 attempts. 

I wrote up the UNC Greensboro-Furman preview on Sunday, and we were on UNCG due to the volatility of Furman’s perimeter shooting. Well, that exact volatility showed — as the Paladins made just 1 of their 8 three-point attempts in the first half. Naturally, UNCG took an 11-point lead into halftime before Furman woke up in the second half and connected on 8-of-12 attempts to pull away for the win, although we got the cover on UNCG. 

Along a similar line of thinking, I lean to ETSU in the SoCon Championship on Monday, but I prefer to target the total. With both teams playing their 3rd game in 3 days after battling back from double-digit deficits last night, I expect fatigue to play a factor in this contest — particularly on those perimeter jumpers. If those shots aren’t falling, we should be in for a low-scoring title game, as neither team plays with much tempo. In fact, ETSU and Furman mutually rank outside the top 240 in adjusted tempo over the last month, and they average just 10.4 fast-break points combined per game over their 5 games. Furthermore, these are the 2 most efficient defenses in the conference per KenPom, and both teams have held their league foes under 33% from distance this season. This game figures to be sweaty no matter how you bet it, but I’m going with a classic championship game under in this one.

Furman vs East Tennessee State prediction: Under 139.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to 138.5.

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Monday’s Sun Belt Tournament final features the top-seeded Troy Trojans vs the #10 Georgia Southern Eagles. The Cinderella run for Georgia Southern has been especially fun considering the Sun Belt’s staggered bracket designed to protect the top teams. The Eagles began playing on Wednesday, and tonight will be their sixth consecutive gameday. It has been one heckuva run, but it is hard to imagine that bodies can hold up to that kind of demand. I will take Troy -7.

The Trojans began play yesterday in the semifinals. They did beat the Eagles in both regular-season meetings — by 5 and by 7 — but it is not like Troy dominated the conference schedule by any means. At 12-6 in conference play, they are one of the more mediocre regular-season champs out there. But it is hard for me to get past the physical toll this tournament has to be taking on Georgia Southern. This is a team whose identity is completely about playing fast. Legs are heavy and minds are not going to be sharp, and this looks like a recipe for mistakes. The methodical Trojans have to have the advantage. This number is bigger than I want, but I have to take the Trojans to cover.

Georgia Southern vs Troy prediction: Troy -7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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#2 seed Robert Morris will get ready to face #3 seed Detroit Mercy Titans in the Horizon League Tournament, as both teams look to advance to the championship game. Robert Morris has been playing excellent basketball down the stretch, winning 8 straight games — including an 11-point victory over Detroit on February 25. In that matchup, the Colonials shot 36% from beyond the arc and forced 12 Detroit turnovers that turned into 23 points. 

Robert Morris will look to keep its momentum going behind Ryan Prather Jr., who is coming off a strong performance after scoring 24 points against Youngstown State. Detroit also brings plenty of offensive talent into this matchup, with 4 players averaging double-figures — led by Orlando Lovejob at 15.3 points per game. While both teams are fairly even offensively, Robert Morris holds the advantage on the defensive end — allowing just 72.2 points per game compared to Detroit’s 78.2. That defensive consistency could prove to be the difference in this matchup. I expect this to be a great matchup between 2 talented teams, but the Colonials’ balanced offense and stronger defense should help them control the pace and secure a win. Look for Robert Morris to get the job done and advance to the Horizon League Championship. 

Detroit Mercy vs Robert Morris prediction: Robert Morris -5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The WCC Tournament is into the semifinal round on Monday, and this matchup between Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s is arguably the most important contest of the entire day of college hoops action. After all, the Broncos are squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble and this game against a Quad 1 opponent presents Santa Clara with a massive opportunity to make a statement on a national stage and essentially lock itself into the field of 68. The Broncos have split the season series against Saint Mary’s, and given that they were clearly the better team in the first meeting, there is a clear path to success for Santa Clara to at least keep this game within one possession, if not win it outright. With that in mind, I can only look toward backing Santa Clara in a situation where the Broncos are live to spring the outright upset.

These teams are fairly evenly matched on paper, which is part of why I gravitate toward taking the points with the underdog. We know that this is going to be a clash of styles, with Saint Mary’s sitting at 257th in adjusted tempo, while Santa Clara is 57th in pace of play. However, while the Gaels offense has been inconsistent against high-level competition, the Broncos have the capability to score on any defense. Herb Sendek’s offense is among the best at the mid-major level, as Santa Clara ranks 23rd in adjusted efficiency (BartTorvik) while tallying 80 or more points in 8 of its last 11 games played. Santa Clara is extremely efficient around the rim as a unit, and the Broncos also do a great job of attacking the offensive glass (19th in offensive rebounding rate). Furthermore, Saint Mary’s also really struggles at getting to the free-throw line, so manufacturing points could be a little more difficult to come by for an offense that is 163rd in free-throw rate on the season. I’ll take the points in this crucial matchup on Monday.

Santa Clara vs Saint Mary’s prediction: Santa Clara +3.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to Santa Clara +3.

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