Thursday’s college basketball card doesn’t have much substance, but there is an interesting non-conference battle among power programs that definitely deserves some attention. With a 2-0 SU/ATS mark, the Oklahoma State Cowboys will hit the road for the first time this season to play the Texas A&M Aggies in College Station, who are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. There are a couple of injuries to note: Oklahoma State’s Kanye Clary is working back from a groin injury, while Texas A&M’s Cade Phillips is questionable with a knee. The latter is most notable, as Phillips is a plus defender in the post.
With Bucky McMillan on the sideline, “Bucky Ball” is alive and well in College Station, as the Aggies lead the country in average possession length – putting up a shot within about 12 seconds, on average. They’ve been highly efficient thus far, but the level of competition will improve considerably when they welcome the Pokes to down Thursday. Under Steve Lutz, Oklahoma State runs with quite a bit of pace as well. This is a top-15 team in tempo, averaging a shot nearly every 14 seconds. Like the Aggies, they’ve been highly efficient against inferior defenses. In fact, both teams are top-five nationally in scoring, averaging at least 103 points per game. That number will regress against better competition, but I don’t expect it to regress enough to even flirt with the idea of betting under in this matchup.
This total opened at 180 and was actually bet down. I get it, it’s a high number, but who wants to hold an under ticket in this matchup? Candidly, I suspect this was bet down because most projections and models – whether someone’s personal creation or more popular systems like KenPom, EvanMiya and BartTorvik – probably aren’t built to project totals this high, this early. Speculation? Sure, but I'd argue more of an educated guess.
Top-15 pace of play is a mainstay in this contest, and there is plenty of scoring all over the court – even if there are a plethora of new faces on both rosters. Texas A&M is loaded with upperclassmen that know how to score in bunches, and the Aggies have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to perimeter shooting. They also leave a bit to be desired on the glass and can be a bit too physical defensively, which should open the door for plenty of second-chance looks and free-throw opportunities for Oklahoma State. Further, the Cowboys have plenty of shooters themselves, albeit not as many proven at the power conference level.
I understand why this was bet down; it’s a high number and both teams are stepping up in class here, but I’m not completely sold on whether either defense is going to be all that great in conference play. These are offensive-oriented teams with elite pace, about as fast as you can get. I’m going over on this total, especially now that it’s below the 180 mark.
Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M prediction: Over 178.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 180 (-110).
