On the surface, college basketball fans will be treated to a fun non-conference game between Wake Forest and Vanderbilt at Memorial Gymnasium in Nashville on Thursday. However, in reality, this may not be so fun for Demon Deacons fans. Under Steve Fobes – as much as I like him as a coach – this program has regressed. Meanwhile, Vandy has ascended into a second-weekend team with Final Four upside in just a couple short years under Mark Byington. As such, the ‘Dores are laying close to 20 points at home. Suddenly, the fun non-conference battle turned into an expected demolition of the visitors.
The discrepancy in the market makes sense. Wake Forest lost all of its cornerstone players, and they were replaced by either mid-major studs or power-conference transfers that didn’t see a ton of run at their previous program. It’s going to take some time for this team to hit its full potential, so a trip on the road to play a tournament team that returns one of the best point guards in the country isn’t going to be easy.
It’s hard to take much from either team’s opening game, but looking at Wake’s boxscore against Maryland Eastern Shore, there are some areas of concern. The Hawks put up more shots than the Demon Deacons, due in large part to their 14 offensive rebounds. What’s even more crazy is the Hawks had 18 turnovers, and they still outshot the ‘Deacs. Not great, Bob! Vanderbilt’s front court should absolutely feast on the boards here.
Both teams were top-100 in average possession length last year (KenPom), and with Tyler Tanner running the show again for the ‘Dores, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Vanderbilt become a top-25 team in terms of offensive tempo this season. Recently under Forbes, Wake hasn’t balked at pace, so this should be an up-and-down affair.
I don’t trust Wake’s offense on the road given their current roster construction, especially in the weird sight lines of Memorial, but I’m not particularly interested in laying this many points with Vandy just yet, either. I do expect the ‘Dores to score in bunches though, so going over on Vandy’s team total is the way I’d attack this game.
Wake Forest vs Vanderbilt prediction: Vanderbilt Commodores team total over 86.5 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to -115.
