Arkansas Razorbacks vs Arizona Wildcats Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/26/26

The West Region features the #1 Arizona Wildcats vs the #4 Arkansas Razorbacks. Arizona pulled away from Utah State to get here, while Arkansas had to battle the whole way to put away a feisty High Point squad. This line originally opened at -9.5, and that would be the largest tournament deficit John Calipari has ever faced. Since then, it has pushed back down to -7.5 — and that is taking us into hammer territory. I think Vegas had this right in the first place — and this is a spot where we can bet a #1 seed while fading the public, which is backing the Hogs at a 70% clip at the time of this writing. Give me Arizona.

Arkansas plays super fast and has one of the best guards in the country in Darius Acuff Jr. What people fail to recognize with Arizona, however, is that it boasts a top-3 defense according to both KenPom and Torvik. The Hogs will still score, but the Arizona defense is a championship-level difference-maker. Arkansas attacks the rim a ton, but Arizona ranks #2 in the country at defending the rim. That’s a matchup problem for Arkansas. The Wildcats make very few mistakes and they have talent in waves. Eventually, I suspect it will overwhelm Arkansas. I am hammering this at -7.5 and playing it out to the original line of -9.5.

Arkansas vs Arizona prediction: Arizona -7.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -9.5.