Hofstra Pride vs Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction, Odds and Picks for Friday, 03/20/26

Friday’s Midwest regional in Tampa gives us the #4 Alabama Crimson Tide vs the #13 Hofstra Pride. Alabama made headlines this week as the team’s second leading scorer was arrested on drug charges and is likely to miss the tournament as a result. That has people sniffing around at this game for an upset. Hofstra closed the season hot, winning their final 7 games on the way to the Colonial title. I don’t know that I want to risk that upset pick, or maybe even the spread, but I do like this game total to stay under 159.5.

Anytime Alabama is involved, there is a threat the score goes to the moon. They play faster than anyone, and they take the first good shot they see. Hofstra is the opposite. They sit outside the top 300 in terms of tempo. They are, however, excellent beyond the arc, and that is the characteristic that is almost always present with the upset-seekers. So why the under? Alabama is missing a key scorer, and Hofstra likes to play slow. Hofstra can’t win a track meet. If they can protect the ball and shorten the number of possessions enough to stay in it early, it will almost certainly be a low-scoring game. And if they can’t compete? They will probably get blown out altogether. This should be an under.

Hofstra vs Alabama prediction: Under 159.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 155.5.