Louisville Cardinals vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/21/26

If you bet the Cardinals on Thursday, you likely suffered one of the worst beats in recordable memory. Let’s run it back. South Florida was the trendy underdog in the Thursday slate as a popular choice for a 6 vs. 11 upset and were bet down to as low as -3.5, before the market stabilized at -4.5. Remember that. The Cardinals led by as much as 19 deep into the second half before somehow the Bulls would surge and get to within four points. And here we go.

With ticks left on the clock, Louisville was sent to the line for two free throws. One basket fosters a UL cover and erases the backdoor. The Cards would miss both free throws and win by four. What does that do for anyone eyeing Louisville in their follow up? Avoid at all costs. Michigan State meanwhile academically handled North Dakota State in a 25-point rout and generated an easy win for those that layed the lumber with Sparty. Put this all together and you have the perfect opportunity to back the Cards. Had Louisville routed South Florida, there would have been a zig-zag and the market would have more interest in the Cardinals, especially with points. The line also would have been shorter, inside a basket. As a result of the contrasting outcomes between MSU and The Ville, we get the Cardinals at an enhanced price in a game they can still clearly win. Take Louisville outright.

Louisville vs Michigan State prediction: Louisville ML (+140) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.