Miami (OH) Redhawks vs SMU Mustangs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/18/26

Miami Ohio couldn’t have asked for a better regular season, finishing a perfect 31-0 while leading the MAC in scoring. However, that momentum came to a halt after a quarterfinal exit against UMass in the MAC Tournament. Now the RedHawks will look to put that behind them and prove their undefeated regular season wasn’t a fluke as they prepare to face SMU in the First Four matchup. The Mustangs didn’t close out the season the way they had hoped, dropping 5 of their last 6 games — which includes an opening-round loss in the ACC Tournament to Louisville 62-58. The Mustangs also struggled away from home, going just 5-10 on the road and at neutral sites this season. That said, both teams bring high-powered offenses into this matchup. Miami Ohio averaged 90.7 points per game in conference play and SMU put up 84.2 in the ACC. 

Miami Ohio does a great job moving the ball and creating open looks, but the level of competition is a concern, as they didn’t face a Quad 1 opponent this season. SMU also plays at a fast pace and can score in bunches while also bringing a physical presence inside. That interior strength could be a major factor in this matchup, especially after Miami Ohio was dominated in the paint by UMass (54-30) and out-rebounded 41 to 24 in their tournament loss. Even with SMU’s advantage inside, its struggles away from home and its defensive issues can’t be ignored. With Dayton just about an hour from Miami Ohio’s campus, the RedHawks should have plenty of fan support in this matchup. This game sets up to be a fast-paced, high-scoring battle, with SMU looking to control the paint. However, I expect the RedHawks to generate open looks from the perimeter and knock down shots from deep, which should allow them to keep this game close. 

Miami Ohio vs SMU prediction: Miami Ohio +7 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.