TCU Horned Frogs vs Duke Blue Devils Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 03/21/26

#9 seed TCU Horned Frogs will take on the #1 seed Duke Blue Devils on Saturday, with both teams looking to deliver a stronger performance than they showed in the first round. TCU narrowly escaped Ohio State, needing a game-winning layup from Xavier Edmonds with just four seconds remaining. Duke also had a sluggish start, only pulling away from #16 seed Siena in the final minutes. Both teams enter this matchup with a defensive identity. According to KenPom, TCU ranks 22nd in adjusted defensive efficiency (97.5 points allowed per 100 possessions) and Duke leads the nation with 89.8. 

For Duke, the key will be establishing control inside. TCU struggled in the paint against Ohio State, getting outscored 34-24, and that’s an area where Duke typically thrives. Even in their win over Siena, the Blue Devils held a 36-30 edge in the paint. However, they haven’t been as dominant inside as usual in recent games, especially with Patrick Ngongba II and Caleb Foster out of the lineup. TCU has the offensive firepower to keep pace with the Blue Devils, with four players averaging double figures. That balance should help them match up against Duke’s top options like the Boozer brothers and Isaiah Evans. The Horned Frogs have also proven they can compete with high-level teams, picking up wins over Cincinnati, Texas Tech, and Iowa State during the regular season while keeping other top-25 matchups close. While TCU may not have enough to pull off the upset, their physicality and defensive toughness should keep this game close. If Duke controls the glass and consistently scores in the paint, they’ll create separation – but I expect TCU to battle inside and keep this one within single digits. 

TCU vs Duke prediction: TCU +11.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.