TCU Horned Frogs vs Ohio State Buckeyes Prediction, Odds and Picks for Thursday, 03/19/26

#9 seed TCU will open the NCAA Tournament against the #8 seed Ohio State in what should be an exciting matchup. The Horned Frogs closed the season strong on both ends of the floor, winning six of their last seven games. Ohio State has also been playing well, winning four of its last five, including a near upset of Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament. Both teams bring plenty of talent, but the edge goes to Ohio State – and here’s why. 

Bruce Thornton is one of the top guards in the country, averaging 20.3 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. He’s a tough matchup for any defense, and he’s not alone. The Buckeyes also feature John Mobley Jr. (15.7 PPG), Devin Royal (13.7 PPG), and 7-foot center Christoph Tilly, who adds 11 points per game. The Horned Frogs have plenty of depth of their own, with four players averaging double digits, and they thrive on forcing turnovers with their defensive pressure. However, Ohio State holds a clear edge in efficiency. The Buckeyes are shooting  49.3% from the floor compared to TCU’s 44.8%, and they’re also more reliable at the free-throw line, hitting 77.5% compared to the Horned Frogs 70.8%, which could be critical late in the game. Defensively, both teams are strong with the Buckeyes holding opponents to 72.8 points per game compared to the Horned Frogs 72.1. While Thornton hasn’t played in an NCAA Tournament game, he has the playmaking ability and discipline to handle the pressure. The Buckeyes have strong perimeter defense and should be able to shut down their 3-point shooting, and also limit TCU’s success in the paint, with Christoph Tilly and Devin Royal protecting the interior and closing off driving lanes. Look for Ohio State to knock down critical free throws late and cover the small spread before advancing to the next round of the NCAA Tournament.  

TCU vs Ohio State prediction: Ohio State -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.